Tarneit
Of all the West-corridor land-release suburbs, Tarneit is the one that has gone vertical on demographics rather than dwellings. The population sits at 56,370, the median age is 30 (a full decade younger than the national 40), 60.3% were born overseas (38.7 percentage points above the national rate), and 50.6% hold a university qualification, 20.5 points above the national baseline. Household income of $2,103 a week lands in the 79.6th percentile despite a personal weekly wage of only $850, the signature of a dual-earner Indian-Filipino mortgage belt where two professionals together carry a $1,950 monthly mortgage on an $646,800 detached home.
Population
56,370
Median Age
30.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,103/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
80
Median House
$647K
Apr-Jun 2024
Buyers in Tarneit are walking into a deliberately family-scaled market: 89.6% detached, 66.0% four-or-more bedrooms, only 0.3% apartments. Median house price is $646,800 (Apr-Jun 2024), up 74.3% from $371,000 in 2013 at a 4.1% CAGR across 14 years, and the suburb is currently 2.1% below its $661,000 peak in Q2 2023. The $1,950 monthly mortgage is 21.4% of household income, comfortably below the 30% stress line and well lower than inner-Melbourne benchmarks. The catch sits at the individual level: at $850 a week per worker, a single income cannot service this mortgage; the suburb only pencils for couples where both partners work, which is why 32,225 of the 48,802 family records here are couples-with-children rather than single-earner households.
For Buyers
Buyers in Tarneit are walking into a deliberately family-scaled market: 89.6% detached, 66.0% four-or-more bedrooms, only 0.3% apartments. Median house price is $646,800 (Apr-Jun 2024), up 74.3% from $371,000 in 2013 at a 4.1% CAGR across 14 years, and the suburb is currently 2.1% below its $661,000 peak in Q2 2023. The $1,950 monthly mortgage is 21.4% of household income, comfortably below the 30% stress line and well lower than inner-Melbourne benchmarks. The catch sits at the individual level: at $850 a week per worker, a single income cannot service this mortgage; the suburb only pencils for couples where both partners work, which is why 32,225 of the 48,802 family records here are couples-with-children rather than single-earner households.
For Investors
Yield economics in Tarneit are average rather than aggressive: 30.7% of dwellings rent at a median $380 a week, putting gross yields near 3.1% on the $646,800 median, slightly higher than the wider Melbourne metro average. The vacancy rate is 5.6%, modestly above the inner-east, signalling that supply is being absorbed but not scarce. Rent-to-income is 18.1%, well below stress thresholds, so tenants have headroom. The structural story is migration scale: net internal migration of 1,674 a year is more than 11 times the 151 overseas inflow, a domestic-relocation tenant pipeline. Wyndham council logged 55 development applications in the past 12 months in Tarneit alone, including a $1.5 million restricted recreation facility, so investors should price in continued greenfield supply rather than yield compression from scarcity.
Development Activity
Total DAs
202
Last 12 Months
80
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+116.2%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
$827K
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Tarneit iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Good News Lutheran College
Prep-12 · 1872 students
Islamic College of Melbourne
Prep-12 · 2017 students
St John the Apostle Catholic Primary School
Prep-6 · 384 students
Karwan Primary School
Prep-6 · 823 students
Thomas Carr College
7-12 · 1347 students
Demographics
Tarneit is one of the most South Asian suburbs in greater Melbourne by absolute count, not just share. Of 56,370 residents, 15,199 are of Indian ancestry and 2,574 are Filipino, supporting 4,960 Punjabi, 1,814 Hindi, 1,502 Urdu and 1,348 Gujarati speakers, with another 661 Arabic. Religion splits across 15,879 Christians, 11,884 Hindus and 8,480 Muslims, a far more even three-faith balance than most Australian suburbs. The 60.3% overseas-born share is 38.7 percentage points above the national rate, and 50.6% university qualification runs 20.5 points above the 30.1% national average. Median age 30 is ten years below the national figure, and the average household holds 3.4 people, both consistent with a young family-formation suburb rather than an aging established area.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
89.6%
Houses
10.1%
Townhouse
0.3%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure is firmly mortgage-belt: 59.2% mortgaged, 30.7% renting, only 10.1% owned outright versus a national outright-ownership rate near 31%. The bedroom profile makes the suburb structurally bad for downsizers and singles: 66.0% have four or more bedrooms, 28.5% have three, only 5.3% are two-bed and 0.3% are one-or-zero. The price line runs $371,000 (2013), peaking at $661,000 in Q2 2023, and now $646,800 across Apr-Jun 2024, a 74.3% lift compounding at 4.1% per year. Mortgage-to-income of 21.4% and rent-to-income of 18.1% are both below the 30% stress threshold, and the headline affordability metric improved from 87 in 2011 to 42.6 in 2021 because real incomes grew 46.8% over the period faster than house prices.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General (Apr-Jun 2024)
Mortgage / mo
$1,950
Rent / wkiABS Census 2021 median across all dwelling types. Current market rents are typically higher.
$380
Census 2021
HH Size
3.4
Personal Income / wk
$850
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.6%
Unoccupied
914
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.1%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.4%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
12.8%
Couples, no children
48,802
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the largest employer at 16.4% (3,089 workers), followed by Transport and Postal at 12.8% (2,399), Professional/Tech 9.1% (1,720), Retail 8.5% (1,593) and Education 7.3% (1,372). Professionals are the biggest occupational group at 5,154, but Machinery Operators/Drivers (3,992), Clerical/Admin (3,246), Community/Personal Service (3,219) and Labourers (2,432) together outnumber them more than 2.5 to 1, a more blue-collar mix than Melbourne's east. Full-time employment runs 64.6%, participation is 65.1% and unemployment sits at 7.8%, higher than the metro median. The SEIFA pattern is the giveaway: IER decile 8 (high economic resources) with IEO decile 6, IRSD decile 6 and IRSAD decile 6, the classic profile of a dual-earner migrant suburb where household income is strong but education and disadvantage indices sit nearer the national midpoint.
Unemployment
3.9%
Labour Force
9,727
Unemployed
383
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.6%
Part-time
27.6%
Participation
65.1%
Employed
24,026
Occupations
Top Industries
University
50.6%
Postgraduate
19.6%
Born Overseas
60.3%
Dwellings
15,526
Transport to Work
Recorded crime is 3,301 offences, a rate of 58.6 per 1,000 residents, lower than nearby Werribee at 109.2 and Hoppers Crossing at 90.5 and below the wider Melbourne metro average. Property and deception offences account for 2,036 incidents (61.7% of total), with crimes against the person at 614 (18.6%). The schools network is one of the deepest in the West corridor: Good News Lutheran College (Independent, ICSEA 1116, 1,872 students) and Islamic College of Melbourne (Independent, ICSEA 1083, 2,017 students) are both well above the national ICSEA mean of 1000, supported by Thomas Carr College (Catholic, ICSEA 1061, 1,347 students) and Tarneit Rise Primary (Government, ICSEA 1051, 1,640 students). The trade-off is car dependence: 86.0% drive, only 5.8% use public transport and 1.2% walk or cycle, despite Tarneit Junction station on the Regional Rail Link.
Drive
86.0%
Public Transport
5.8%
Walk / Cycle
1.2%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+6.27%/yr
(+1,202 people/yr)
High GrowthTarneit is one of the highest-growth suburbs in greater Melbourne: the forecast trend is 6.27% per year (1,202 people annually), and the medium scenario lifts the local forecast geography from 17,294 in 2026 to 23,304 by 2031. Net internal migration averages 1,674 a year, more than 11 times the 151 net overseas migration, which is unusual; high-growth Australian suburbs typically lean on overseas inflow, but Tarneit is being fed by Australians (many already-settled migrant families) relocating from elsewhere in Melbourne. The 10-year population change of 3,442.7% reflects the suburb building out from a near-greenfield base. Gentrification scores 0 (stage: Not gentrifying), so the demographic profile is being added to, not replaced, and real income growth of 46.8% over the period has outpaced rent growth of -11.5%.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Internal Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+151
Net Internal / yr
+1,674
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
3,301
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
58.6
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Tarneit compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Tarneit a good suburb to live in?
Tarneit suits dual-income migrant families chasing detached homes near schools. Median house price is $646,800, 89.6% of dwellings are separate houses and 66.0% have four or more bedrooms. Crime at 58.6 per 1,000 residents is lower than nearby Werribee (109.2) and Hoppers Crossing (90.5). The trade-off is 86.0% car dependence and a $1,950 monthly mortgage that only works on dual incomes.
What is the median house price in Tarneit?
Median house price is $646,800 (Apr-Jun 2024, Victorian Valuer-General), up 74.3% from $371,000 in 2013 at a 4.1% compound annual rate over 14 years. The suburb is currently 2.1% below the $661,000 peak set in Q2 2023. Monthly mortgage is $1,950 (21.4% of household income) and weekly rent is $380, both below the 30% stress line and lower than inner-Melbourne medians.
What schools are in Tarneit?
Tarneit has 10 mainstream schools spanning Government, Catholic and Independent sectors. The standouts are Good News Lutheran College (Independent, ICSEA 1116, 1,872 students) and Islamic College of Melbourne (Independent, ICSEA 1083, 2,017 students), one of the largest Islamic schools in Victoria. Thomas Carr College (Catholic, ICSEA 1061, 1,347 students) anchors secondary, and Tarneit Rise Primary (Government, ICSEA 1051, 1,640 students) is the largest primary.
Is Tarneit safe?
Tarneit recorded 3,301 offences, a rate of 58.6 per 1,000 residents, lower than Werribee (109.2) and Hoppers Crossing (90.5) and below the wider Melbourne metro average. Property and deception offences dominate at 2,036 incidents (61.7%), while crimes against the person are 614 (18.6%). SEIFA disadvantage decile is 6, sitting above the national midpoint rather than below it.
Is Tarneit good for property investment?
Investment appeal hinges on yield versus supply. Weekly rent of $380 implies around 3.1% gross yield on the $646,800 median, slightly above the metro average, with a 5.6% vacancy rate that is workable but not tight. Forecast population growth of 6.27% per year through 2031 is one of the highest in Melbourne, driven by 1,674 net internal migrants annually. The risk is 55 development approvals in the last 12 months adding fresh supply.
How is Tarneit's population changing?
Tarneit's population is 56,370 and the forecast trend is 6.27% per year, lifting the local forecast geography from 17,294 in 2026 to 23,304 by 2031. Net internal migration of 1,674 a year is more than 11 times the 151 overseas inflow, unusual for a high-growth Australian suburb. Young share is up 15.5 points over the period, senior share down 17.5, and real incomes have grown 46.8%.
What languages are spoken in Tarneit?
60.3% of Tarneit residents were born overseas, 38.7 percentage points above the national rate. Punjabi leads non-English languages with 4,960 speakers, followed by Hindi (1,814), Urdu (1,502), Gujarati (1,348) and Arabic (661). The Indian-origin community of 15,199 and the Filipino community of 2,574 anchor the multilingual mix. Religion splits across 15,879 Christians, 11,884 Hindus and 8,480 Muslims, a more even three-faith balance than most Australian suburbs.
What development is happening in Tarneit?
Wyndham council logged 55 development applications in Tarneit in the past 12 months, including a $1.5 million restricted recreation facility and multiple permits to remove native vegetation along the Southern and Central Outfalls in preparation for further subdivision. Activity is consistent with a high-growth outer suburb still building out at 6.27% forecast annual population growth, rather than retrofitting an established area.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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