Aintree
With 89% of dwellings having 4 or more bedrooms and a median age of 30, Aintree is Melbourne's western growth corridor distilled into a single statistic: young mortgage-belt families buying big and new. Household incomes sit at the 89th percentile nationally ($2,348/week), yet SEIFA advantage scores land at just decile 2, a disconnect that signals high debt loads rather than accumulated wealth. Over 54% of residents were born overseas, 33 percentage points above the national average, with Indian ancestry (1,735) forming the largest non-Anglo community.
Population
7,982
Median Age
30.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,348/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
19
Median House
$782K
Apr-Jun 2024
The median house price of $782,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) has grown at a 2.2% CAGR over 12 years from $600,000, modest compared to inner Melbourne. Prices peaked at $800,100 (Jul-Sep 2023) and have softened 2.2% since. Nearly all housing is detached (99.1%), and 89% has 4-plus bedrooms, so buyers get space. Mortgage-to-income at 21.3% is comfortably below the stress threshold, reflecting high dual incomes. The trade-off is location: only 4.4% use public transport, and 89.3% drive, suggesting limited non-car connectivity to the CBD.
For Buyers
The median house price of $782,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) has grown at a 2.2% CAGR over 12 years from $600,000, modest compared to inner Melbourne. Prices peaked at $800,100 (Jul-Sep 2023) and have softened 2.2% since. Nearly all housing is detached (99.1%), and 89% has 4-plus bedrooms, so buyers get space. Mortgage-to-income at 21.3% is comfortably below the stress threshold, reflecting high dual incomes. The trade-off is location: only 4.4% use public transport, and 89.3% drive, suggesting limited non-car connectivity to the CBD.
For Investors
The 20.9% renter share is relatively thin for an outer suburb, and vacancy sits at 3.3%, tighter than the Melbourne average. Weekly rent of $420 against a $782,500 median yields roughly 2.8% gross, below inner-city alternatives. Population grew 11.1% over the prior decade, and the forecast adds about 50 people per year (0.71% annual growth). With only 14 development applications in 12 months, the pipeline is quiet. The real play here is capital growth in a maturing estate, not yield, given the rent-to-price compression.
Development Activity
Total DAs
26
Last 12 Months
19
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+280.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Aintree iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Aintree Primary School
Prep-6 · 1323 students
Yarrabing Secondary College
7-8 · 398 students
Demographics
The median age of 30 sits 10 years below the national median, the largest gap in this cohort. Indian ancestry (1,735) leads, followed by English (656), Filipino (577), and unspecified (431). Punjabi (962 speakers) is the dominant non-English language, alongside Hindi (203) and Arabic (100). University education at 50.5% is 20 percentage points above the national average, which is unusual for an outer suburb and reflects the South Asian professional migrant profile. Christianity (2,720) is the largest religion, but Hinduism (1,281) accounts for a significant share.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
99.1%
Houses
0.9%
Townhouse
N/A
Apartment
Tenure
From $600,000 in 2015, the median has risen 30.4% to $782,500, a 2.2% CAGR over 12 years. The peak of $800,100 (Jul-Sep 2023) represents a modest 2.2% pullback. Ownership skews heavily to mortgages: 73.8% of households carry a mortgage, 5.3% own outright, and 20.9% rent. This 73.8% mortgage rate is among the highest in Melbourne, typical of a suburb where almost every home was purchased in the last decade. Average household size of 3.6 (1.1 above national average) confirms large family occupancy, and only 0.4% of dwellings have 2 bedrooms.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,167
Rent / wk
$420
HH Size
3.6
Personal Income / wk
$980
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
3.3%
Unoccupied
74
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
17.9%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.3%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
12.5%
Couples, no children
7,363
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare (20.8%, 610 workers) and Transport (12.4%, 364) are the top employment sectors, reflecting both the suburb's proximity to health precincts and a large cohort of truck drivers and logistics workers. Construction (8.7%) and Retail (8.0%) follow. Professionals (898) lead occupations, but Machinery/Drivers (524) rank second, higher than typical for a suburb with 50.5% university-educated residents. Unemployment at 5.3% is close to the national average. The SEIFA IEO decile of 2 (low education/occupation) appears paradoxical given high university rates, likely because the metric captures established residents rather than recent migrants.
Unemployment
8.6%
Labour Force
3,525
Unemployed
304
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
68.0%
Part-time
26.7%
Participation
70.0%
Employed
3,615
Occupations
Top Industries
University
50.5%
Postgraduate
15.9%
Born Overseas
54.3%
Dwellings
2,162
Transport to Work
Aintree Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1,058, 1,323 enrolments) scores above the national 1,000 benchmark, while Yarrabing Secondary College (Government, ICSEA 1,018, 398 students) opened recently. Public transport usage at 4.4% and a walking/cycling rate of just 0.7% highlight car dependency. Crime sits at 47.4 per 1,000 residents, with property offences (208) the largest category, below the Victorian state average. The 37.1% residential turnover rate is high, reflecting a suburb still in its settling-in phase as new estates complete.
Drive
89.3%
Public Transport
4.4%
Walk / Cycle
0.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.71%/yr
(+50 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is forecast to reach 7,277 by 2031, growing at 0.71% annually (50 persons/year) from a 2025 base of 7,011, below the Melbourne average growth rate. Migration is balanced: 28 net internal and 34 net overseas annually. The ageing trajectory shows seniors' share rising 7.8 percentage points while working-age share drops 3.4pp, typical of a suburb where the founding cohort is growing older together. Gentrification score of 5 (not gentrifying) confirms this is a stable mortgage-belt community. Rent-to-income affordability has been stable at around 40% over the decade.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+34
Net Internal / yr
+28
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +14% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
378
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
47.4
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Aintree compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Aintree a good suburb to live in?
Aintree suits young families seeking large, new 4-bedroom homes at $782,500 median, with mortgage stress at just 21.3% of income. Schools score above the ICSEA 1,000 benchmark. The trade-off is car dependency (89.3% drive to work) and limited retail or cultural infrastructure typical of a maturing estate.
What is the median house price in Aintree?
The median house price is $782,500 (Apr-Jun 2024), up 30.4% from $600,000 in 2015 (2.2% CAGR over 12 years). The peak was $800,100 in Jul-Sep 2023, so current pricing sits 2.2% below the high.
What schools are in Aintree?
Aintree has 2 schools: Aintree Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1,058, 1,323 students) and Yarrabing Secondary College (Government, ICSEA 1,018, 398 students). Both score above the national ICSEA benchmark of 1,000.
Is Aintree safe?
Aintree's crime rate is 47.4 per 1,000 residents, below the Victorian state average. Property and deception offences (208 incidents) account for the majority. Crimes against the person totalled 77, and drug offences were low at 20.
Is Aintree good for property investment?
Gross rental yield is modest at roughly 2.8% ($420/week rent on $782,500 median). Vacancy is tight at 3.3%, and population growth of 0.71% per year provides demand tailwind. The investment case rests on capital growth in a maturing corridor rather than rental income, given the rent-to-price compression.
How is Aintree's population changing?
Population is forecast to grow from 7,011 (2025) to 7,277 by 2031, adding about 50 people per year. The median age of 30 is 10 years below the national median, but an ageing trajectory is underway with seniors' share rising 7.8 percentage points over the decade.
What languages are spoken in Aintree?
Punjabi dominates with 962 speakers, followed by Hindi (203), Arabic (100), and Urdu (84). Over 54% of residents were born overseas, 33 percentage points above the national average, reflecting the suburb's strong South Asian and Filipino communities.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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