QLD 4807 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Ayr

Agriculture employs 13.7% of Ayr's workforce (292 people), the only suburb in this batch with a significant farming sector, reflecting the Burdekin Delta's sugar cane economy. Population is contracting at -0.08% per year (losing 7 residents annually), with internal outflow of 32 per year exceeding overseas arrivals of 68. The estimated $310,000 median makes it the most affordable suburb in this analysis, yet household income at the 28th percentile ($1,246/week) still produces a 22.5% mortgage-to-income ratio. Italian ancestry (1,385) is the second-largest group, a legacy of post-war agricultural migration uncommon in modern QLD suburbs.

Ayr urban fabric map

Population

8,603

Median Age

44.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,246/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

0

Median House

$310K

Estimated from rent (2025)

28.47 km²· 302.1 people/km²· Family income $1,736/wk

The estimated $310,000 median (rent-derived, 2025) is the lowest in this batch. Detached houses at 82.9% dominate, with 3-bedrooms at 50.2% as the most common type. Monthly mortgage of $1,213 against $1,246/week income gives a 22.5% mortgage-to-income ratio, below stress levels. Semi-detached at 14.5% is higher than many regional towns. Weekly rent at $230 is very affordable. The suburb has 6 schools, but ICSEA scores range from 763 to 1,007, with the government schools generally below the national benchmark. The 11.1% vacancy rate suggests a surplus of housing stock relative to permanent demand.

For Buyers

The estimated $310,000 median (rent-derived, 2025) is the lowest in this batch. Detached houses at 82.9% dominate, with 3-bedrooms at 50.2% as the most common type. Monthly mortgage of $1,213 against $1,246/week income gives a 22.5% mortgage-to-income ratio, below stress levels. Semi-detached at 14.5% is higher than many regional towns. Weekly rent at $230 is very affordable. The suburb has 6 schools, but ICSEA scores range from 763 to 1,007, with the government schools generally below the national benchmark. The 11.1% vacancy rate suggests a surplus of housing stock relative to permanent demand.

For Investors

The 32.1% renter share and $230 weekly rent against a $310,000 median produce roughly 3.9% gross yield, near the national average. However, the 11.1% vacancy rate and contracting population (-0.08% per year) create headwinds. Rent grew 15.0% over the decade, above the 7.0% real income growth, but both figures are modest. Zero DAs in 12 months indicate no new construction activity. The aging trajectory (senior share up 4.7 points) and young-share decline (-4.0 points) suggest the tenant pool will shrink over time unless agriculture or mining bring new workers.

Development Activity

Total DAs

3

Last 12 Months

0

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

-100.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Change of Use
1
Subdivision
1
Other
1

Schools in Ayr iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

St Francis Catholic School

ICSEA 1007 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 222 students

Burdekin Catholic High School

ICSEA 989 Secondary Catholic

7-12 · 293 students

East Ayr State School

ICSEA 952 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 500 students

Burdekin Christian College

ICSEA 949 Combined Independent

Prep-12 · 380 students

Ayr State High School

ICSEA 925 Secondary Government

7-12 · 497 students

Demographics

Italian ancestry at 1,385 is the second-largest group after English (2,917), a post-war agricultural migration legacy unique to Burdekin cane-growing communities. Scottish (882), Irish (861) round out the British-Italian mix. Only 11.8% were born overseas, 9.8 points below national. Italian language (64 speakers) is the primary non-English language. University qualifications at 17.2% are 12.9 points below national, consistent with the IEO decile 1. The median age of 44 is 4 years above national. Couples without children at 34.5% nearly equal couples with children (34.4%), showing a balanced but aging demographic. Volunteering at 17.2% is above national.

Age Distribution

0-14
16.2%
15-24
11.5%
25-44
22.6%
45-64
25.7%
65+
24.0%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
4.4%
2 bed
22.4%
3 bed
50.2%
4+ bed
23.1%

Dwelling Structure

82.9%

Houses

14.5%

Townhouse

0.9%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 41.2% Mortgage 26.7% Rent 32.1%

Owned outright at 41.2% dominates tenure, with 26.7% mortgaged and 32.1% renting. The $310,000 estimated median is the lowest in this batch. Three-bedrooms (50.2%) are the most common, with two-bedrooms at 22.4% above the metro norm. The 22.5% mortgage-to-income ratio is manageable even at 28th-percentile incomes. Affordability improved from 37.0% to 32.3% over the decade, making Ayr increasingly accessible. The 11.1% vacancy rate is high, likely reflecting seasonal worker housing and holiday properties. The IRSD decile 3 and IRSAD decile 2 indicate above-average disadvantage.

Mortgage / mo

$1,213

Rent / wk

$230

HH Size

2.2

Personal Income / wk

$701

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

11.1%

Unoccupied

425

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

18.5%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.5%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Italian
64
Afrikaans
16
AIndLng
11

Ancestry

English
2,917
Italian
1,385
Scottish
882
Irish
861
Ancestry NS
805
Other
726

Household Composition

34.5%

Couples, no children

5,932

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare (15.1%, 321 workers) leads, followed by Agriculture (13.7%, 292), Education (12.7%, 271) and Manufacturing (12.3%, 263). The agriculture share reflects sugar cane and horticulture as the economic base. Public Admin at 7.3% rounds out the top five. Labourers (732) are the largest occupation group, nearly double the Professionals (466), a profile sharply different from metro suburbs. Full-time employment at 68.6% is above national, but the 53.2% participation rate is low because 2,450 people are not in the labour force. Unemployment at 4.1% is near national. All SEIFA deciles sit in the bottom quartile.

Unemployment

5.7%

Labour Force

4,529

Unemployed

259

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
2
Disadvantage
3
Economic resources
3
Education & occupation
1

Full-time

68.6%

Part-time

27.3%

Participation

53.2%

Employed

3,677

Occupations

Labourers 732
Professionals 466
Managers 442
Clerical/Admin 434
Community/Personal 426
Machinery/Drivers 381
Sales 323

Top Industries

Healthcare 15.1%
Agriculture 13.7%
Education 12.7%
Manufacturing 12.3%
Public Admin 7.3%

University

17.2%

Postgraduate

2.0%

Born Overseas

11.8%

Dwellings

3,376

Transport to Work

Six schools serve the suburb, the most in this batch. St Francis Catholic School (ICSEA 1,007, 222 students) sits just above the national benchmark. Burdekin Catholic High School (Secondary, ICSEA 989, 293 students) and East Ayr State School (ICSEA 952, 500 students) fall below. Ayr State School (ICSEA 763, 60 students) scores 237 points below benchmark, the widest gap in this analysis. Public transport at 3.3% is low, but walking/cycling at 5.0% is above average for a regional town. The IRSAD decile 2 indicates significant disadvantage. Need-for-assistance at 7.7% is above national.

Drive

82.6%

Public Transport

3.3%

Walk / Cycle

5.0%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.08%/yr

(-7 people/yr)

Established

Population contracted 1.8% over the decade to approximately 9,234 by 2025, well below the national growth rate, and the medium forecast projects further decline to 9,117 by 2031. Annual change of -0.08% (losing 7 people per year) makes Ayr one of the few shrinking suburbs in this analysis. Internal migration runs at -32 per year, while overseas migration adds 68, producing a near-zero net. The aging trajectory is pronounced: the young share dropped 4.0 points and the senior share rose 4.7 points over the decade, with the working-age share dipping 0.5 points.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+68

Net Internal / yr

-32

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Ayr compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 6%
Household Income
Bottom 28%
Rent Level
Bottom 40%
Apartments
Bottom 19%
Renters
Top 25%
Uni Educated
Bottom 27%
Public Transport
Top 50%
Born Overseas
Bottom 39%
Density
Top 22%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Ayr a good suburb to live in?

Ayr suits those seeking affordable regional living ($310,000 estimated median) with a low mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.5%. The Burdekin Delta location provides a rural lifestyle. However, IRSAD decile 2 indicates significant disadvantage, population is contracting, and some schools score well below the national benchmark.

What is the median house price in Ayr?

The estimated median is $310,000 (rent-derived, 2025), the lowest in this analysis. Monthly mortgage of $1,213 produces a 22.5% mortgage-to-income ratio at 28th-percentile household income ($1,246/week). Weekly rent is $230. Affordability improved from 37.0% to 32.3% over the decade.

What schools are in Ayr?

Ayr has 6 schools. St Francis Catholic (ICSEA 1,007, 222 students) just exceeds the national benchmark. Burdekin Catholic High (ICSEA 989, 293 students) and East Ayr State (ICSEA 952, 500 students) sit below. Ayr State School (ICSEA 763, 60 students) scores 237 points below benchmark, the widest gap in this batch.

Is Ayr safe?

Crime statistics are not available for Ayr in the current dataset. The IRSD decile 3 and IRSAD decile 2 indicate above-average disadvantage, which correlates with higher crime nationally. The 4.1% unemployment rate is near the national average, but need-for-assistance at 7.7% (603 residents) sits above the national median.

Is Ayr good for property investment?

Gross yield of roughly 3.9% ($230/week on $310,000) is near average. However, the 11.1% vacancy rate, contracting population (-0.08% per year) and zero DAs in 12 months signal weak demand. The aging trajectory (senior share up 4.7 points) suggests the tenant pool will shrink unless new economic drivers emerge.

How is Ayr's population changing?

Population contracted 1.8% over the decade and is projected to decline further to 9,117 by 2031. The suburb loses 32 residents per year to internal migration while gaining 68 from overseas. The aging trajectory is pronounced: seniors rose 4.7 points, the young share fell 4.0 points, and the working-age share dipped 0.5 points.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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