Bairnsdale
A crime rate of 259.8 per 1,000 residents and a 10.3% vacancy rate coexist with house prices that have nearly doubled in 14 years (from $235,000 to $452,500, a 4.8% CAGR), making Bairnsdale a case study in regional town economics where capital gains persist despite unfavourable liveability metrics. Household incomes at the 18th percentile nationally and SEIFA scores at decile 2-3 place it in the disadvantaged bracket. However, 7 schools serve a population of just 7,905, giving it more educational infrastructure per capita than many outer-metro suburbs.
Population
7,905
Median Age
44.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,101/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
16
Median House
$452K
Apr-Jun 2024
The median of $452,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) has risen 92.6% from $235,000 in 2013, a 4.8% CAGR over 14 years, with no price correction (the latest quarter is the peak). Detached houses dominate at 84.2%, with semi-detached at 14.4% and almost no apartments. Three-bedroom homes at 52.3% are the typical configuration. Mortgage-to-income at 25.0% is comfortably below stress, and monthly repayments of $1,192 are among the lowest in this data set. The trade-off: a crime rate of 259.8 per 1,000 and a median age 4 years above national at 44 indicate a town with ageing demographics and social challenges.
For Buyers
The median of $452,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) has risen 92.6% from $235,000 in 2013, a 4.8% CAGR over 14 years, with no price correction (the latest quarter is the peak). Detached houses dominate at 84.2%, with semi-detached at 14.4% and almost no apartments. Three-bedroom homes at 52.3% are the typical configuration. Mortgage-to-income at 25.0% is comfortably below stress, and monthly repayments of $1,192 are among the lowest in this data set. The trade-off: a crime rate of 259.8 per 1,000 and a median age 4 years above national at 44 indicate a town with ageing demographics and social challenges.
For Investors
The 34.7% renter share provides a substantial tenant pool, but the 10.3% vacancy rate is the highest in this cohort, signalling potential oversupply. Weekly rent of $270 against $452,500 median implies a gross yield of approximately 3.1%. Population growth of 1.01% per year (161 persons) and balanced migration (58 internal, 48 overseas) provide modest demand. Only 15 development applications in 12 months, mostly subdivisions, indicate minimal supply growth. Rent growth of 40.0% over the decade reflects the regional squeeze, but SEIFA decile 2 limits the profile of tenants willing to pay premium rents.
Development Activity
Total DAs
48
Last 12 Months
16
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+6.7%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Bairnsdale iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Wild Cherry School
Prep-6 · 43 students
St Mary's School
Prep-6 · 473 students
Nagle College
7-12 · 803 students
Bairnsdale Christian College
Prep-10 · 82 students
Bairnsdale Secondary College
7-12 · 1213 students
Demographics
The median age of 44 sits 4 years above the national median, with the ageing trajectory adding 5.9 percentage points to seniors' share over the decade. English ancestry dominates (3,214), followed by Scottish (809) and Irish (762), with only 12.7% born overseas (8.9pp below national average). University education at 19.8% trails the national rate by 10.3 percentage points. Labourers (517), Professionals (515), and Community/Personal workers (492) split occupational leadership nearly evenly, reflecting the mix of agricultural, healthcare, and service employment typical of a Gippsland regional centre.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
84.2%
Houses
14.4%
Townhouse
0.8%
Apartment
Tenure
From $235,000 in 2013 to $452,500 in Apr-Jun 2024, Bairnsdale has delivered 92.6% cumulative growth (4.8% CAGR over 14 years) without any price dip, a rare monotonic rise. Detached houses (84.2%) with 3 bedrooms (52.3%) are the standard configuration. Ownership splits: 38.2% outright, 27.1% mortgage, 34.7% renting. The near-equal outright and renter shares reflect Bairnsdale's dual nature as both a settled retiree destination and a town with social housing demand. Rent-to-income at 24.5% and mortgage-to-income at 25.0% are both manageable, keeping formal stress below threshold despite low absolute incomes.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,192
Rent / wk
$270
HH Size
2.2
Personal Income / wk
$634
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
10.3%
Unoccupied
380
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.5%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
25.0%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
30.4%
Couples, no children
5,483
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare dominates at 25.6% (493 workers), consistent with Bairnsdale Regional Health Service's role as East Gippsland's major employer. Education (12.1%, 233) and Construction (9.3%, 178) follow. Manufacturing at 7.2% (139) is higher than suburban Melbourne averages, reflecting regional processing and agricultural services. Unemployment at 5.3% is near-national, but the 47.4% participation rate means over half the working-age population is outside the labour force. SEIFA IRSAD decile 2 and IEO decile 3 confirm Bairnsdale sits in the lower band nationally for socioeconomic advantage.
Unemployment
5.5%
Labour Force
7,567
Unemployed
415
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
56.4%
Part-time
38.3%
Participation
47.4%
Employed
2,945
Occupations
Top Industries
University
19.8%
Postgraduate
4.2%
Born Overseas
12.7%
Dwellings
3,302
Transport to Work
Seven schools serve Bairnsdale, spanning ICSEA scores from 892 to 1,053. St Mary's Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1,024, 473 students) and Nagle College (Secondary, Catholic, ICSEA 1,018, 803 students) sit above the 1,000 benchmark. Bairnsdale Secondary College (Government, ICSEA 955, 1,213 students) is the largest. Crime at 259.8 per 1,000 is very high, driven by property offences (831) and justice procedure breaches (592). Public transport usage is negligible at 0.3%, and 85.2% drive. Volunteering at 18.2% is above the national average, reflecting regional community engagement.
Drive
85.2%
Public Transport
0.3%
Walk / Cycle
6.8%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.01%/yr
(+161 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is forecast to reach 17,093 by 2031, growing at 1.01% annually (161 persons/year), above the average for regional Victorian towns. Migration is balanced: 58 net internal and 48 net overseas per year. The population grew 18.4% over the past decade. The ageing trajectory shows seniors' share rising 5.9pp and working-age share dropping 1.8pp. Gentrification score of 13 (not gentrifying) confirms no demographic upgrading trend. Rent growth of 40.0% over the decade has outpaced real income growth of 10.9%, tightening affordability even in this low-price market. The suburb avoided any COVID population dip.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+48
Net Internal / yr
+58
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +18% since 2011, Net internal migration +58/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
2,054
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
259.8
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Bairnsdale compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Bairnsdale a good suburb to live in?
Bairnsdale offers regional affordability at $452,500 median with 7 schools and strong community volunteering (18.2%). However, the crime rate of 259.8 per 1,000 is among the highest in this data set, and SEIFA decile 2 indicates significant disadvantage. Mortgage stress at 25.0% is manageable.
What is the median house price in Bairnsdale?
The median is $452,500 (Apr-Jun 2024), up 92.6% from $235,000 in 2013 (4.8% CAGR over 14 years). The current quarter is the peak, with no price correction on record. Monthly mortgage repayments of $1,192 are among the lowest in this cohort.
What schools are in Bairnsdale?
Bairnsdale has 7 schools. St Mary's Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1,024, 473 students) and Nagle College (Secondary, Catholic, ICSEA 1,018, 803 students) score above the 1,000 benchmark. Bairnsdale Secondary College (Government, ICSEA 955) is the largest with 1,213 enrolments.
Is Bairnsdale safe?
Bairnsdale's crime rate of 259.8 per 1,000 residents is among the highest in this data set. Property and deception offences (831 incidents) dominate, justice procedure breaches total 592, and crimes against the person reached 358. SEIFA IRSD decile 3 is a correlated risk factor.
Is Bairnsdale good for property investment?
The 4.8% CAGR over 14 years shows consistent capital growth, and the $452,500 entry point is accessible. Gross yield is approximately 3.1% ($270/week rent). However, the 10.3% vacancy rate is the highest in this cohort, and population growth at 1.01% per year (161 persons) is modest for a regional centre.
How is Bairnsdale's population changing?
Population grows at 1.01% annually (161 persons/year), forecast to reach 17,093 by 2031. Migration is balanced: 58 internal and 48 overseas net per year. Seniors' share is rising 5.9 percentage points, and the median age of 44 sits 4 years above the national median, indicating steady ageing.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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