Blackmans Bay
A 598% price increase from $127,500 in 1996 to $890,000 in 2026, compounding at 6.7% annually over 30 years, makes Blackmans Bay one of the strongest long-run growth stories in southern Tasmania. University attainment at 45.3% is 15.2 percentage points above the national average, which is remarkable for a suburb outside a capital city's inner ring. With 92.9% detached housing, household incomes in the 64th percentile, and a 42.5% outright ownership rate, the suburb functions as Hobart's southern professional belt, insulated from the rental-market volatility that affects inner-city Hobart.
Population
7,688
Median Age
42.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,806/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
1
Median House
$890K
YTD 2026
The $890,000 median (YTD 2026) recovered from a $835,000 dip in 2025 after the $878,000 recorded in 2024. Detached houses dominate at 92.9%, with 47.6% being 3-bedroom and 35.5% being 4+ bedroom homes. Mortgage stress is low at 21.2% of income, because household incomes ($1,806/week) are proportionally strong for Tasmania. Two primary schools serve the suburb: Illawarra Primary (ICSEA 1082, 391 enrolled) and Blackmans Bay Primary (ICSEA 1035, 257 enrolled), both above the national median. The 78.2% residential retention rate indicates a settled community.
For Buyers
The $890,000 median (YTD 2026) recovered from a $835,000 dip in 2025 after the $878,000 recorded in 2024. Detached houses dominate at 92.9%, with 47.6% being 3-bedroom and 35.5% being 4+ bedroom homes. Mortgage stress is low at 21.2% of income, because household incomes ($1,806/week) are proportionally strong for Tasmania. Two primary schools serve the suburb: Illawarra Primary (ICSEA 1082, 391 enrolled) and Blackmans Bay Primary (ICSEA 1035, 257 enrolled), both above the national median. The 78.2% residential retention rate indicates a settled community.
For Investors
The 21.9% renting rate and 5.3% vacancy rate are a functional pairing, though the small renter pool limits scale. Weekly rent of $400 against an $890,000 median yields approximately 2.3% gross, below most investment thresholds. Rent grew 37.9% over the past decade, suggesting strong tenant demand growth. Only 1 development application in the past 12 months (a dual dwelling) means virtually no new supply, protecting existing asset values through extreme scarcity. The 6.7% 30-year CAGR confirms the capital growth thesis, but entry at $890,000 is at the current market peak.
Development Activity
Total DAs
1
Last 12 Months
1
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
—
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Blackmans Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Illawarra Primary School
K-6 · 391 students
Blackmans Bay Primary School
K-6 · 257 students
Demographics
The median age of 42 is 2 years above the national median. University attainment at 45.3% is 15.2 percentage points above the national average, driven by proximity to the University of Tasmania and state government employment. English ancestry dominates (3,480), with Irish (961) and Scottish (892) following. Only 21.5% were born overseas, close to the national rate. Mandarin (75 speakers) is the most common non-English language. Professionals (1,120) and managers (561) together form 46% of all occupations. The 23.5% volunteering rate is well above the national average, indicating strong community ties.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
92.9%
Houses
4.1%
Townhouse
2.9%
Apartment
Tenure
Detached houses at 92.9% is the 2nd highest rate in this dataset. Apartments are minimal at 2.9%, with semi-detached at 4.1%. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 47.6%, with 4+ bedrooms at 35.5%. Ownership is 42.5% outright and 35.6% mortgaged, with 21.9% renting. Mortgage costs consume just 21.2% of income, the lowest stress ratio in this dataset. Prices over 30 years show steady compounding: $127,500 (1996) to $890,000 (2026), with the only notable dip being $835,000 in 2025 before recovering. The 598% total growth significantly outpaces national averages.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,655
Rent / wk
$400
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$887
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.3%
Unoccupied
163
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.1%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.2%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
29.8%
Couples, no children
6,290
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare (18.5%), education (16.4%), and public administration (12.9%) together employ 47.8% of the workforce, reflecting Hobart's government-dominated economy. Professional/tech (9.7%) and construction (7.4%) round out the top 5. Professionals (1,120) are the largest occupation group by a wide margin. The public-sector concentration provides stability but limits income upside compared to private-sector-heavy suburbs. Unemployment at 4.6% is near the national average. SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 places Blackmans Bay in the upper-middle bracket nationally, above average but not in the top tier.
Unemployment
2.4%
Labour Force
6,095
Unemployed
149
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
57.1%
Part-time
38.3%
Participation
60.3%
Employed
3,632
Occupations
Top Industries
University
45.3%
Postgraduate
14.0%
Born Overseas
21.5%
Dwellings
2,910
Transport to Work
Two primary schools serve Blackmans Bay: Illawarra Primary (Government, ICSEA 1082, 391 enrolled) and Blackmans Bay Primary (Government, ICSEA 1035, 257 enrolled), both above the national median. Public transport usage at 5.8% is moderate for a Hobart suburb. Walking/cycling at 2.1% is limited. Need for assistance at 5.2% is near the national average. The 23.5% volunteering rate, well above the national benchmark, indicates active community participation. SEIFA decile 7-8 across indices confirms a comfortable, above-average socio-economic environment. Christianity (3,249) is the dominant religion.
Drive
84.7%
Public Transport
5.8%
Walk / Cycle
2.1%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.82%/yr
(+93 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is projected to grow from 11,344 in 2025 to 12,016 by 2031, adding 93 people annually at 0.82%, below the national average. The suburb grew 13.4% over the past decade. Overseas migration (+88/year) offsets internal outflows (-79/year). The aging trajectory is significant: senior share rose 5.9 percentage points and young share fell 1.9 percentage points. Gentrification score is low at 5, indicating no demographic displacement. Affordability has held stable with mortgage-to-income barely moving from 45.5% to 45.4% over the decade, an unusual stasis that reflects synchronized price and income growth.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+88
Net Internal / yr
-79
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +14% since 2011
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Blackmans Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Blackmans Bay a good suburb to live in?
For families seeking professional-belt living south of Hobart, Blackmans Bay delivers: 92.9% detached housing, 2 schools above the national ICSEA median, and mortgage costs at just 21.2% of income. The 23.5% volunteering rate, above the national average, signals strong community. The $890,000 median is the main barrier.
What is the median house price in Blackmans Bay?
The median is $890,000 (YTD 2026), recovered from $835,000 in 2025. Over 30 years, prices grew from $127,500 (1996) to $890,000 at a 6.7% CAGR, representing 598% total growth. This is the longest and strongest compound growth record in this dataset.
What schools are in Blackmans Bay?
Two government primary schools serve the suburb: Illawarra Primary (ICSEA 1082, 391 enrolled) and Blackmans Bay Primary (ICSEA 1035, 257 enrolled). Both score above the national median of 1000. Secondary students typically travel to Kingston or Hobart for high school.
Is Blackmans Bay safe?
Suburb-level crime data is not available for Blackmans Bay in the current dataset. SEIFA IRSD decile 8 (low disadvantage) and the 23.5% volunteering rate both correlate with lower crime rates nationally. The 78.2% residential retention rate also suggests community stability.
Is Blackmans Bay good for property investment?
The 6.7% CAGR over 30 years is exceptional long-term growth. However, current gross yield is approximately 2.3% ($400/week on $890,000), and the 21.9% renter rate limits the tenant pool. Only 1 DA in 12 months means virtually no new supply. This is a capital growth play: 37.9% rent growth over the decade and extreme supply scarcity support price appreciation.
How is Blackmans Bay's population changing?
Population grew 13.4% over the past decade, forecast to reach 12,016 by 2031 from 11,344 in 2025. Growth is modest at 0.82% annually. The suburb is aging: senior share rose 5.9 percentage points and young share fell 1.9 percentage points. Overseas migration (+88/year) narrowly offsets domestic outflows (-79/year).
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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