Boronia
The defining anomaly in Boronia is the gap between its growth forecast and its established outer-east bones. The trend pencils 3.53% annual growth (+957 persons/year), an order of magnitude faster than Ferntree Gully's 0.32% one stop south or Croydon's 0.13% to the north, yet the suburb still carries 1970s-80s detached stock, a 5.5% vacancy rate and a household income at only the 53.1st percentile nationally ($1,619/week). The $850,000 median (Apr-Jun 2024) sits 2.3% below Ferntree Gully's $870,000 and 19.4% below Rowville's $1,054,100, the cheapest of the three Knox-LGA Belgrave-line stops despite identical rail access. Boronia is also the rare outer-east postcode where semi-detached housing has crept to 24.8% of stock against Ferntree Gully's 10.1%, evidence the infill story is further along than peer suburbs even before the forecast surge lands.
Population
23,607
Median Age
39.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,619/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
80
Median House
$850K
Apr-Jun 2024
Boronia is the cheapest entry rung on the Belgrave line east of Ringwood, priced 2.3% below Ferntree Gully ($870,000) and 19.4% below Rowville ($1,054,100) despite sitting at the same rail terminus complex. The $850,000 median is 4.4% below the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $889,400, a softer retracement than Ferntree Gully's 7.1% drawdown. Stock skews mid-family: 51.1% three-bedroom and 23.6% four-plus, with only 2.3% one-or-zero bed dwellings. Mortgage-to-income runs 26.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold but heavier than Ferntree Gully's 25.0% because incomes here ($1,619/week household) sit 8.5% lower. Tenure mix is owner-tilted at 30.7% outright and 40.6% mortgaged, leaving 28.7% renting, a thicker renter pool than Ferntree Gully's 21.7%. The trade for cheaper entry is 24.8% semi-detached share, double Ferntree Gully's 10.1%, so genuine detached buyers face a narrower 71.7% slice.
For Buyers
Boronia is the cheapest entry rung on the Belgrave line east of Ringwood, priced 2.3% below Ferntree Gully ($870,000) and 19.4% below Rowville ($1,054,100) despite sitting at the same rail terminus complex. The $850,000 median is 4.4% below the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $889,400, a softer retracement than Ferntree Gully's 7.1% drawdown. Stock skews mid-family: 51.1% three-bedroom and 23.6% four-plus, with only 2.3% one-or-zero bed dwellings. Mortgage-to-income runs 26.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold but heavier than Ferntree Gully's 25.0% because incomes here ($1,619/week household) sit 8.5% lower. Tenure mix is owner-tilted at 30.7% outright and 40.6% mortgaged, leaving 28.7% renting, a thicker renter pool than Ferntree Gully's 21.7%. The trade for cheaper entry is 24.8% semi-detached share, double Ferntree Gully's 10.1%, so genuine detached buyers face a narrower 71.7% slice.
For Investors
Yields work harder here than peers, but the supply backdrop is the catch. Median rent of $376/week against $850,000 implies a gross yield near 2.30%, narrowly behind Ferntree Gully's 2.31% but ahead of Rowville's 2.2% and Bentleigh East's 1.7%. The 5.5% vacancy rate is the warning light, sitting 1.1 percentage points above Ferntree Gully's 4.4% and well outside the 3-4% tightness band investors target. Rental depth is genuine at 28.7% of households (higher than Ferntree Gully's 21.7% and Rowville's circa 19%), supporting tenant pool turnover. Development activity ran 32 planning permits in the past 12 months, 28% above Ferntree Gully's 25 and dominated by two-to-five-lot subdivisions per the lodged samples. The forecast migration mix is the genuine surprise: net internal migration averages +1,427/year against +155/year overseas, a 9.2:1 ratio that flips the usual outer-east pattern where Ferntree Gully runs net internal at -70/year. CAGR of 4.5% over 14 years sits between Bentleigh East's 5.1% and Rowville's 4.5%.
Development Activity
Total DAs
110
Last 12 Months
80
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+471.4%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Boronia iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
St Joseph's Primary School
Prep-6 · 129 students
Boronia Heights Primary School
Prep-6 · 507 students
Knox Central Primary School
Prep-6 · 75 students
Boronia K-12 College
Prep-12 · 494 students
Dillbadin Primary School
Prep-6 · 35 students
Demographics
Boronia reads Anglo-Celtic mortgage belt with a building Asian-Pacific overlay, not the migrant-majority profile Glen Waverley has become. English ancestry leads at 8,320 residents (35.2% of population), then Irish (2,244), Scottish (2,160) and Chinese (1,934, 8.2% share), the Chinese cohort tracking marginally above Ferntree Gully's 7.4% but one-quarter of Mount Waverley's depth. Mandarin leads non-English languages at 453 speakers, followed by Cantonese (237), Sinhalese (159) and Persian (102), a more diversified mix than the single-language dominance of Glen Waverley. Born-overseas rate of 28.3% runs 6.7 percentage points above the national share and 2.2pp above Ferntree Gully's 26.1%, yet still trails Rowville's 35.8% by 7.5 points. University attainment of 34.6% beats the national 30.1% by 4.5pp but falls 17.4pp below Bentleigh East's 52.0%, the same education-modest pattern reflected in IEO decile 6. Median age 39 runs one year below the national 40, and 27.0% are couples without children.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
71.7%
Houses
24.8%
Townhouse
3.4%
Apartment
Tenure
The 14-year price arc tracks the established outer-east rhythm rather than the inner-east boom. Boronia rose from $459,500 in 2013 to a peak of $889,400 in Jul-Sep 2023 then $850,000 in Apr-Jun 2024, an 85.0% gain across 14 years (4.5% CAGR). That CAGR is identical to Rowville's 4.5% and 0.3pp below Ferntree Gully's 4.8%, with the 4.4% post-peak retracement shallower than Ferntree Gully's 7.1% or Mount Waverley's 8.8%. Tenure structure leans owner-occupied at 30.7% outright and 40.6% mortgaged, with the 28.7% rental share 7.0pp deeper than Ferntree Gully's 21.7% and consistent with the higher semi-detached stock supporting smaller-format tenancy. Bedroom mix skews three-bed (51.1%) with 23.6% four-plus and 23.0% two-bed, the two-bed share above Ferntree Gully's 14.7% reflecting the semi-detached infill. Against $84k household income ($1,619/week), the price-to-income multiple is 10.1x, above the 7-8x national benchmark but lighter than Bentleigh East's 13.1x or Mount Waverley's 18x.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,870
Rent / wk
$376
HH Size
2.4
Personal Income / wk
$800
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.5%
Unoccupied
547
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.2%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
26.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
27.0%
Couples, no children
18,466
Total families
Economy & Employment
The local labour profile tilts service-sector with a heavier care economy than the wealthier east. Healthcare leads at 17.9% of workers (1,454 jobs, well above the 13% national share), then Education at 12.3% (998 jobs), Construction at 11.3% (919 jobs, materially above metro norms), Professional/Tech 9.7%, and Manufacturing 8.1%. Occupations show Professionals at 2,621 (23.6% of the 11,111 employed), Clerical/Admin at 1,668, and Community/Personal Service at 1,375, the Community/Personal share above peer outer-east profiles and consistent with the Healthcare concentration. Full-time employment runs 64.5% with unemployment at 4.6%, slightly above the 4.3% national benchmark and matching Ferntree Gully's 4.8% pattern. The SEIFA story mirrors Ferntree Gully's flatness: IEO decile 6 (998), IER decile 5 (992), IRSD decile 6 (1,015) and IRSAD decile 5 (992), all clustering near the 1,000 mid-point rather than the decile-9 sweep of Bentleigh East.
Unemployment
5.9%
Labour Force
13,716
Unemployed
809
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.5%
Part-time
30.9%
Participation
59.5%
Employed
11,111
Occupations
Top Industries
University
34.6%
Postgraduate
8.8%
Born Overseas
28.3%
Dwellings
9,325
Transport to Work
Schools sit modestly below the cohort top, with no standout senior college. St Joseph's Primary leads at ICSEA 1,086 (129 students, Catholic), followed by Boronia Heights Primary at 1,051 (507 students) and Knox Central Primary at 1,018. Boronia K-12 College handles the combined intake at ICSEA 982 with 494 enrolments, while Dillbadin Primary (977) and Urban College (975, Independent) round out the cluster. No school reaches the 1,100 ICSEA tier that Bentleigh East's 1,082-1,156 range clears. Transport runs overwhelmingly car-based: 88.6% drive against only 3.9% public transport despite the Belgrave-line terminus, and 2.3% walk or cycle. Crime sits at 76.6 incidents per 1,000 residents (1,808 total), 20.8% above Ferntree Gully's 63.4 and 29.6% above Rowville's 52.6, with property and deception offences dominating at 802 cases (44.4% of total) and justice procedures at 372. The Dandenong Ranges foothill setting is the genuine lifestyle asset that no other Belgrave-line stop matches.
Drive
88.6%
Public Transport
3.9%
Walk / Cycle
2.3%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+3.53%/yr
(+957 people/yr)
High GrowthThe forecast carries the highest signal in this brief. The trend projects 3.53% annual growth (+957 persons/year), an order of magnitude above Ferntree Gully's 0.32% and twenty-seven times Croydon's 0.13%. The medium projection runs from 25,593 (2026) to 30,376 (2031), an 18.7% rise across six years and the kind of trajectory typically seen in growth corridors, not 1970s-established Knox suburbs. Migration mechanics explain part of the why: net internal migration averages +1,427/year against +155/year overseas, the +1,427 figure inverting Ferntree Gully's net internal outflow of -70/year and suggesting Boronia is absorbing households priced out of Rowville and Mount Waverley. Gentrification score sits at 37 (Early signs), well above Rowville's 6 and ahead of Ferntree Gully's 28. Affordability index improved from 62.7 (2011) to 48.6 (2021), real income grew 18.0% over the decade, and population has already moved +63.5% across the historical 10-year window.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Internal Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+155
Net Internal / yr
+1,427
Gentrification Signal
New development
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
1,808
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
76.6
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Boronia compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Boronia a good suburb to live in?
For families seeking the cheapest entry on the Belgrave line east of Ringwood, yes. The $850,000 median runs 2.3% below Ferntree Gully and 19.4% below Rowville with identical rail access, and the Dandenong Ranges foothills sit within fifteen minutes. The trade-offs: crime at 76.6 per 1,000 sits 20.8% above Ferntree Gully and 29.6% above Rowville, schools cluster at ICSEA 975-1,086 with no 1,100+ standout, and 88.6% car dependence persists despite the train terminus.
What is the median house price in Boronia?
The median house price is $850,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), down 4.4% from the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $889,400. Prices rose 85.0% from $459,500 in 2013, a 4.5% compound annual growth over 14 years, matching Rowville's 4.5% and trailing Ferntree Gully's 4.8% by 0.3pp. Median rent of $376/week implies a gross yield near 2.30%, narrowly behind Ferntree Gully's 2.31% but ahead of Bentleigh East's 1.7%.
What schools are in Boronia?
Six schools serve the suburb, with most clustered around the 1,000 ICSEA national mean. St Joseph's Primary tops the list at ICSEA 1,086 (129 students, Catholic), followed by Boronia Heights Primary at 1,051 (507 students, Government) and Knox Central Primary at 1,018 (75 students). Boronia K-12 College handles the combined intake at ICSEA 982 with 494 enrolments. Dillbadin Primary (977) and Urban College (975, Independent) sit just below the 1,000 mean.
Is Boronia safe?
Crime sits at 76.6 incidents per 1,000 residents (1,808 total), 20.8% above Ferntree Gully's 63.4 per 1,000 and 29.6% above Rowville's 52.6, the highest of the three Belgrave-line Knox stops. Property and deception offences dominate at 802 incidents (44.4% of total), with justice procedures at 372 (20.6%) and crimes against the person at 262 (14.5%). SEIFA IRSAD decile 5 places the suburb mid-pack nationally, matching Ferntree Gully's decile 5 and below Croydon's decile 8.
Is Boronia good for property investment?
Mixed signals. The 2.30% gross yield ($376/week rent on $850,000 median) narrowly trails Ferntree Gully's 2.31% but beats Bentleigh East's 1.7%, and rental depth runs 28.7% of households against Ferntree Gully's 21.7%. The 5.5% vacancy rate is the warning, 1.1pp above Ferntree Gully and outside the 3-4% tightness band. Bull case: net internal migration of +1,427/year inverts Ferntree Gully's -70 outflow, demand absorption ahead of 3.53% forecast growth.
How is Boronia's population changing?
Rapidly, against the established outer-east pattern. Trend forecast adds +957 residents per year via 3.53% annual growth, eleven times Ferntree Gully's 0.32% and twenty-seven times Croydon's 0.13%. Medium projection moves from 25,593 (2026) to 30,376 (2031), an 18.7% rise across six years. Net internal migration runs +1,427/year against +155 overseas, inverting Ferntree Gully's -70 outflow. Gentrification score 37 (Early signs).
What development is happening in Boronia?
32 planning permits were lodged in the past 12 months, 28% above Ferntree Gully's 25 and consistent with the higher growth forecast. The pipeline runs two-to-five-lot subdivisions under VC221 rather than apartment redevelopment, with the three most recent samples flagging 2, 3 and 5-lot splits. With 71.7% detached and 24.8% semi-detached stock (double Ferntree Gully's 10.1%), the play is small-scale infill, not density transformation.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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