VIC 3128 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Box Hill South

Chinese and English ancestry run almost neck-and-neck in Box Hill South (2,223 vs 2,214 residents), a demographic split that shapes everything from school demand to retail mix. The $1,465,000 median house price sits 6.1% below its 2021 peak of $1,560,000, yet the suburb attracted net 1,242 overseas migrants per year over recent periods, one of the highest inflows for a Melbourne middle-ring suburb. University attainment at 58.6% is 28.5 percentage points above the national average. Active gentrification is underway, with population surging 31.5% in a decade and the working-age share expanding 4.1 points while young family share contracts.

Box Hill South urban fabric map

Population

8,491

Median Age

39.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,928/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

12

Median House

$1.5M

Apr-Jun 2024

3.49 km²· 2,432.7 people/km²· Family income $2,424/wk

The median house price of $1,465,000 requires substantial financial capacity. Monthly mortgage payments of $2,400 against household income of $1,928 per week produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.7%, approaching the 30% stress threshold. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 42.6% of stock, with 32.6% being 4+ bedrooms and 21.2% being two-bedroom. Detached houses still account for 66.0%, but semi-detached (22.6%) and apartments (11.1%) are growing as subdivision activity continues. Price has softened from the $1,560,000 peak in 2021 to $1,465,000, offering a 6.1% discount compared to peak conditions. The 4.6% CAGR over 14 years (from $785,000 in 2013) shows steady long-term appreciation.

For Buyers

The median house price of $1,465,000 requires substantial financial capacity. Monthly mortgage payments of $2,400 against household income of $1,928 per week produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.7%, approaching the 30% stress threshold. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 42.6% of stock, with 32.6% being 4+ bedrooms and 21.2% being two-bedroom. Detached houses still account for 66.0%, but semi-detached (22.6%) and apartments (11.1%) are growing as subdivision activity continues. Price has softened from the $1,560,000 peak in 2021 to $1,465,000, offering a 6.1% discount compared to peak conditions. The 4.6% CAGR over 14 years (from $785,000 in 2013) shows steady long-term appreciation.

For Investors

Rental demand is present with 28.7% of residents renting, though the 9.3% vacancy rate is significantly elevated and signals oversupply, likely from recent apartment and townhouse completions. Weekly rent of $425 against the $1,465,000 median yields a gross return under 2%, making pure yield plays difficult. The real opportunity lies in capital growth through densification: 11 planning applications in 12 months are predominantly 2-lot subdivisions, confirming ongoing land division. Net overseas inflow of 1,242 per year provides sustained demand, though internal outflow of 252 per year suggests some residents cash out and move to cheaper areas.

Development Activity

Total DAs

17

Last 12 Months

12

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+200.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
12
Subdivision
4

Schools in Box Hill South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Roberts McCubbin Primary School

ICSEA 1120 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 303 students

Demographics

The near-equal split between Chinese (2,223) and English (2,214) ancestry defines Box Hill South's multicultural character. Mandarin is the dominant non-English language with 653 speakers, followed by Cantonese (197). With 41.4% born overseas (19.8 points above national), the suburb attracts skilled migrants, contributing to the 58.6% university attainment rate. The median age of 39 is close to national, but couples with children (2,956) outnumber childless couples (1,417) by more than 2:1, indicating a strong family orientation. Household size of 2.6 matches the national average despite the denser housing mix.

Age Distribution

0-14
17.0%
15-24
14.1%
25-44
27.2%
45-64
26.3%
65+
15.3%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
3.6%
2 bed
21.2%
3 bed
42.6%
4+ bed
32.6%

Dwelling Structure

66.0%

Houses

22.6%

Townhouse

11.1%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 33.8% Mortgage 37.5% Rent 28.7%

Prices grew from $785,000 in 2013 to a peak of $1,560,000 in 2021, then corrected to $1,465,000 (down 6.1% from peak). Detached houses remain the majority at 66.0%, but the 22.6% semi-detached share is well above the national average, reflecting subdivision-driven densification. Ownership is relatively balanced: 33.8% outright, 37.5% mortgage, 28.7% renting. The 9.3% vacancy rate is notably high for an established suburb and likely reflects recently completed stock finding tenants. Mortgage stress at 28.7% is one of the highest in this cohort, sitting near the 30% warning threshold, because prices run far ahead of local incomes.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,400

Rent / wk

$425

HH Size

2.6

Personal Income / wk

$788

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

9.3%

Unoccupied

321

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.0%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

28.7%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Mandarin
653
Canton
197
Greek
70
Hindi
64
Guj
33
Sinhal
33

Ancestry

Chinese
2,223
English
2,214
Other
945
Irish
792
Scottish
691
Indian
360

Household Composition

21.1%

Couples, no children

6,718

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare leads employment at 17.0% (563 workers), followed by education at 14.0% (463) and professional/tech at 13.2% (436). This trio accounts for 44.2% of jobs, a knowledge-economy profile that contrasts with blue-collar outer suburbs. Professionals dominate occupations (1,459), outnumbering managers (705) by 2:1. Unemployment at 6.1% is slightly above the national rate. The SEIFA IEO decile of 9 (education/occupation) versus IER decile of 2 (economic resources) creates the widest gap in this cohort: high human capital but modest accumulated wealth, likely because mortgage costs absorb much of the household income.

Unemployment

5.6%

Labour Force

16,063

Unemployed

903

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
7
Disadvantage
4
Economic resources
2
Education & occupation
9

Full-time

60.7%

Part-time

33.2%

Participation

61.6%

Employed

4,075

Occupations

Professionals 1,459
Managers 705
Clerical/Admin 536
Community/Personal 421
Sales 379
Labourers 250
Machinery/Drivers 117

Top Industries

Healthcare 17.0%
Education 14.0%
Professional/Tech 13.2%
Retail 7.7%
Construction 6.8%

University

58.6%

Postgraduate

20.2%

Born Overseas

41.4%

Dwellings

3,133

Transport to Work

Roberts McCubbin Primary School (government, ICSEA 1120, 303 students) serves as the local primary option, with an ICSEA score well above the national median of 1000. The crime rate of 53.7 per 1,000, while lower than Melbourne's most affected areas, remains elevated, with property offences making up 376 of 456 total crimes. Public transport usage at 6.1% is moderate, though 83.4% still drive. Walking and cycling at 4.0% reflects a suburban layout not optimised for active transport. The SEIFA IRSAD decile of 7 places the suburb in the top 40% nationally for overall advantage.

Drive

83.4%

Public Transport

6.1%

Walk / Cycle

4.0%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+2.06%/yr

(+560 people/yr)

Established

Population is expanding at 2.06% per year, adding approximately 560 people annually. This is driven almost entirely by overseas migration (1,242 net per year), making Box Hill South one of Melbourne's top migrant-receiving suburbs. Internal migration runs at -252 per year, meaning established residents leave as newcomers arrive. Medium projections point to 29,837 by 2031, up from 27,206 in 2025. Active gentrification signals include population growth of 49% since 2011, strong overseas inflow, and acceleration from 14% to 31% growth rates, well above the national average for established suburbs. The declining young-family share (-2.6 points) suggests the area is transitioning from family suburb to mixed-age density.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+1,242

Net Internal / yr

-252

41

Gentrification Signal

Active

Population +49% since 2011, Net internal outflow -252/yr, Strong overseas inflow +1242/yr, Accelerating: 14% → 31%

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

456

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

53.7

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
376
Justice procedures offences
36
Crimes against the person
29
Drug offences
8

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Box Hill South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 6%
Household Income
Top 28%
Rent Level
Top 12%
Apartments
Top 28%
Renters
Top 30%
Uni Educated
Top 5%
Public Transport
Top 26%
Born Overseas
Top 5%
Density
Top 6%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Box Hill South a good suburb to live in?

Box Hill South appeals to families seeking strong schools (Roberts McCubbin ICSEA 1120) and multicultural amenities. The 58.6% university rate is 28.5 points above national, reflecting an educated community. At $1,465,000 median, it requires significant income, with mortgage-to-income at 28.7%. Proximity to Box Hill's commercial centre and healthcare precinct adds convenience.

What is the median house price in Box Hill South?

The median house price is $1,465,000 as of mid-2024, down 6.1% from the $1,560,000 peak in 2021. Over 14 years, the CAGR was 4.6%, growing from $785,000 in 2013. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,400, putting mortgage-to-income at 28.7%, near the 30% stress line.

What schools are in Box Hill South?

Roberts McCubbin Primary School (government) has an ICSEA score of 1120, placing it well above the national median of 1000, with 303 students enrolled. For secondary education, families typically access schools in neighbouring Box Hill, Blackburn, and Mont Albert suburbs.

Is Box Hill South safe?

The crime rate is 53.7 per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences dominate at 376 of 456 total incidents, while crimes against the person total 29 and drug offences just 8. This rate is lower than many Melbourne commercial centres but higher than quieter outer-ring suburbs.

Is Box Hill South good for property investment?

Capital growth prospects exist through densification (66% detached stock with subdivision potential), but the 9.3% vacancy rate is a concern. Rental yields are thin: $425 weekly rent against a $1,465,000 median. The 1,242 annual overseas arrivals sustain demand, and active gentrification scores suggest continued demographic upgrading. Investors should watch vacancy trends before committing.

How is Box Hill South's population changing?

Population is growing at 2.06% annually, adding about 560 people per year. Net overseas migration of 1,242 per year drives this growth, while 252 residents per year move out internally. Medium projections show 29,837 by 2031, up from 27,206 in 2025. Active gentrification is underway, with the population having grown 49% since 2011.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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