Cairnlea
Vietnamese ancestry at 3,009 residents is the largest single group in Cairnlea, ahead of Chinese (1,244) and Filipino (696), producing a suburb where 53.2% were born overseas, 31.6 percentage points above the national baseline. Despite this, household income sits at the 77.2 percentile nationally, well above the median, yet SEIFA places Cairnlea at IRSAD decile 4, creating an unusual disconnect between earnings and overall advantage. The explanation lies in the IRSD decile 3 reading, indicating pockets of relative disadvantage beneath the income surface. Prices have grown at 5.6% CAGR over 14 years, reaching $1,027,500 in mid-2024, a 114.1% gain from $480,000 in 2013. The suburb experienced a COVID population dip of 3.0% from which it has not fully recovered, one of the few Melbourne suburbs in that position.
Population
10,038
Median Age
36.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,062/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
0
Median House
$1.0M
Apr-Jun 2024
The $1,027,500 median sits 5.7% below a peak of $1,090,000 in early 2024, representing a price correction that may offer entry opportunities. Detached houses at 88.6% dominate, and 64.6% of dwellings have four or more bedrooms, the second highest proportion in this batch, reflecting a housing fabric built for large households. Average household size of 3.4 is 0.9 above the national figure, consistent with multi-generational family living. The median monthly mortgage of $1,883 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of just 21.1%, remarkably low given the $1,027,500 median, and well below the 30% stress threshold. This ratio suggests many current mortgage holders purchased at lower price points. Vacancy at 3.6% is tight, meaning resale demand is healthy. The suburb has minimal public transport access at 3.5% usage.
For Buyers
The $1,027,500 median sits 5.7% below a peak of $1,090,000 in early 2024, representing a price correction that may offer entry opportunities. Detached houses at 88.6% dominate, and 64.6% of dwellings have four or more bedrooms, the second highest proportion in this batch, reflecting a housing fabric built for large households. Average household size of 3.4 is 0.9 above the national figure, consistent with multi-generational family living. The median monthly mortgage of $1,883 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of just 21.1%, remarkably low given the $1,027,500 median, and well below the 30% stress threshold. This ratio suggests many current mortgage holders purchased at lower price points. Vacancy at 3.6% is tight, meaning resale demand is healthy. The suburb has minimal public transport access at 3.5% usage.
For Investors
Renters account for only 15.4% of households, well below the national average, reflecting the strong owner-occupier preference in this family-oriented suburb. Median weekly rent of $400 against the $1,027,500 median would deliver a gross yield of approximately 2.0%, below Melbourne averages. The 3.6% vacancy rate is the tightest in this batch, suggesting strong tenant demand despite the low renter share. Zero development applications were lodged in 12 months, meaning no new supply pipeline. The COVID population dip from 10,452 pre-COVID to a low of 10,142, with only partial recovery to 10,035 by 2025, creates uncertainty about future growth. Net internal migration is sharply negative at 216 per year, offset partly by overseas inflows of 129 per year.
Schools in Cairnlea iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Cairnlea Park Primary School
Prep-6 · 776 students
Demographics
Vietnamese (3,009), Chinese (1,244) and Filipino (696) ancestries dominate, with English at just 644 residents, making this one of Melbourne's most Asian-influenced suburbs. The 53.2% overseas-born rate is 31.6 percentage points above national. Cantonese (208 speakers), Macedonian (125), Punjabi (89), Arabic (84) and Urdu (80) lead the non-English languages, but Vietnamese itself is likely the largest language group given the 3,009 ancestry count. Buddhism (1,953) is the second largest religion behind Christianity (4,024), with Islam at 983, reflecting the Asian and Middle Eastern heritage mix. Average household size of 3.4 sits 0.9 above the national figure, and 14.3% of families are couples without children, the lowest share in this batch, confirming multi-generational family structures.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
88.6%
Houses
7.6%
Townhouse
3.8%
Apartment
Tenure
Mortgage holders at 50.8% form the majority, well above outright owners at 33.8% and renters at 15.4%, a profile where over half the suburb is carrying debt. The price record shows strong appreciation: from $480,000 in 2013 to a peak of $1,090,000 in early 2024, a 114.1% gain. The latest median of $1,027,500 represents a 5.7% pullback from that peak. Four-plus bedroom homes at 64.6% and three-bedroom at 30.5% account for 95.1% of stock, leaving almost no small-format options. The 21.1% mortgage-to-income ratio is among the lowest in this batch, indicating existing mortgage holders are well-positioned despite rate rises. SEIFA IER decile 8 confirms strong economic resources, while IEO decile 5 places education and occupation at the national midpoint, a reversal of the typical migrant-suburb pattern where education leads income.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,883
Rent / wk
$400
HH Size
3.4
Personal Income / wk
$658
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
3.6%
Unoccupied
104
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
19.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
14.3%
Couples, no children
8,994
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads at 16.9% (462 workers), followed by Retail at 8.9%, Construction at 8.4%, Education at 8.4% and Transport at 8.3%. The employment distribution is more dispersed than typical, with no single industry exceeding 17%. Professionals (853) lead occupations, but Clerical/Admin (693), Labourers (583) and Machinery/Drivers (581) collectively form a large blue-collar contingent. The 7.1% unemployment rate exceeds the national average, and real income has declined 3.6% over the decade, meaning wages have fallen behind inflation. SEIFA IER decile 8 vs IEO decile 5 reveals an unusual pattern: economic resources are strong but education and occupation indicators sit at the national midpoint, suggesting wealth has been built through property and multi-income households rather than professional advancement.
Unemployment
4.8%
Labour Force
5,846
Unemployed
283
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.7%
Part-time
29.2%
Participation
57.7%
Employed
4,344
Occupations
Top Industries
University
42.8%
Postgraduate
7.0%
Born Overseas
53.2%
Dwellings
2,798
Transport to Work
Car dependence at 87.8% is high, with public transport at 3.5% and walking/cycling at just 0.9%. Cairnlea Park Primary School (ICSEA 1,023, 776 students, Government) is the sole school within the suburb, sitting just above the national benchmark of 1,000. The 500 total crime incidents at 49.8 per 1,000 residents are below the Melbourne metropolitan median. Property and deception offences lead at 278 (55.6%), followed by justice procedures at 92 and crimes against the person at 72. Drug offences at 34 are relatively low. The SEIFA IRSAD decile 4 places the suburb below the national midpoint, though the crime rate does not reflect this disadvantage level. The 6.2% need-for-assistance rate is near the national average.
Drive
87.8%
Public Transport
3.5%
Walk / Cycle
0.9%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.72%/yr
(+173 people/yr)
EstablishedThe trend rate of 1.72% per year projects 173 additional persons annually, but the reality has been more turbulent. Cairnlea experienced a COVID dip of 3.0% from a pre-COVID population of 10,452, falling to 10,142, and by 2025 has only recovered to 10,035, still 1.3% below the pre-pandemic level. Medium projections suggest recovery to 11,820 by 2031, but this assumes overseas migration at 129 per year continues. Net internal migration is strongly negative at 216 per year, indicating that residents who can move domestically are choosing to leave. The ageing trajectory shows senior share rising 6.4 percentage points and young share falling 5.4 points over the decade. Gentrification score of 0 confirms no signs of demographic upgrading.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+129
Net Internal / yr
-216
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -216/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
500
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
49.8
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Cairnlea compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Cairnlea a good suburb to live in?
Cairnlea suits families seeking large homes with low mortgage stress. The 21.1% mortgage-to-income ratio is well below the 30% threshold, 64.6% of homes have 4+ bedrooms, and the crime rate of 49.8 per 1,000 is below the Melbourne median. IRSAD decile 4 is below national midpoint, car dependence at 87.8% is high, and the local primary school at ICSEA 1,023 just exceeds the benchmark.
What is the median house price in Cairnlea?
The median house price is $1,027,500 as of April-June 2024, down 5.7% from a peak of $1,090,000 in early 2024. Over 14 years, prices grew 114.1% from $480,000 in 2013 at a 5.6% CAGR. Median monthly mortgage is $1,883 producing a 21.1% mortgage-to-income ratio, and median weekly rent is $400 with a vacancy rate of 3.6%.
What schools are in Cairnlea?
Cairnlea has 1 school within its boundary: Cairnlea Park Primary School (ICSEA 1,023, 776 students, Government). It sits just above the national 1,000 benchmark. The SEIFA IEO decile 5 confirms education and occupation outcomes at the national midpoint, which aligns with the school sitting near, rather than well above, the benchmark.
Is Cairnlea safe?
Cairnlea recorded 500 offences at 49.8 per 1,000 residents, below the Melbourne metropolitan median. Property and deception offences dominate at 278 (55.6%), with crimes against the person at 72 and drug offences at 34 being relatively low. Despite the IRSD decile 3 reading, the crime profile is more consistent with a safe family suburb.
Is Cairnlea good for property investment?
Cairnlea's 3.6% vacancy rate is the tightest in this batch, but the 15.4% renter share is low, limiting tenant pool depth. Gross yield at roughly 2.0% ($400 rent vs $1,027,500 median) falls below Melbourne averages. Capital growth has been strong at 5.6% CAGR over 14 years, but the COVID population dip has not recovered, and net internal migration is negative at 216 per year.
How is Cairnlea's population changing?
Cairnlea experienced a COVID dip of 3.0% and has not fully recovered, with 2025 population at 10,035 versus 10,452 pre-COVID. Net internal migration is strongly negative at 216 per year, offset by overseas inflows of 129 per year. Medium projections reach 11,820 by 2031. Senior share rose 6.4 percentage points and young share fell 5.4 points over the decade.
What languages are spoken in Cairnlea?
Cantonese (208 speakers), Macedonian (125), Punjabi (89), Arabic (84) and Urdu (80) are the top reported non-English languages. Vietnamese ancestry at 3,009 residents is the largest single group, suggesting Vietnamese language use likely exceeds these counts. The 53.2% overseas-born share is 31.6 percentage points above the national baseline, and Buddhism at 1,953 adherents reflects the strong Asian heritage.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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