Cairnlea
Cairnlea's strongest defining feature is its combination of a family-sized housing market and a migrant-majority population. The suburb has 10,038 residents, a median age of 36, and 53.2% of people born overseas, which is 31.6 percentage points above the national comparison. Housing is dominated by separate homes at 88.6%, while 50.1% of households are paying a mortgage. Household income sits at the 77.2 percentile, above the middle of the distribution. The 3.4-person average household size is also 0.9 higher than national levels. This places Cairnlea in the same broad western family corridor as nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, but with a particularly strong Vietnamese, Chinese and Filipino presence.
Population
10,038
Median Age
36.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,062/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
0
Median House
$982K
October to December 2025
Cairnlea suits buyers seeking a larger detached home, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Mortgage repayments are listed at $1,883 monthly, while the mortgage-to-income ratio is 21.1% and the household weekly income is $2,062. Compared with apartment-led markets, Cairnlea offers more family space, but its detached-house price point requires substantial borrowing.
For Buyers
Cairnlea suits buyers seeking a larger detached home, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Mortgage repayments are listed at $1,883 monthly, while the mortgage-to-income ratio is 21.1% and the household weekly income is $2,062. Compared with apartment-led markets, Cairnlea offers more family space, but its detached-house price point requires substantial borrowing.
For Investors
Cairnlea is primarily an owner-occupier market, with 15.2% of households renting compared with 33.4% owning outright and 50.1% holding a mortgage. The weekly rent is $400 and vacancy is 3.6%, providing a measurable rental base without suggesting the same tenant concentration as a high-renting suburb. Rent growth of 20.5% supports recent income momentum, while the wider growth trend is 1.72% annually and is driven mainly by overseas migration. Compared with the 50.1% mortgage share, the lower renter proportion means investors are competing in a market shaped by family homeowners rather than renters.
Schools in Cairnlea
Open-register school locations for education access. This is not a school-quality ranking.
Cairnlea Park Primary School
Victoria University Secondary College
Demographics
Cairnlea has a younger median age of 36, which is 4 years below the national comparison, but its longer-term direction is ageing. Overseas-born residents account for 53.2% of the population, 31.6 percentage points above the national comparison, and 42.8% hold a university qualification, 12.7 points higher than national levels. The average household contains 3.4 people, or 0.9 above the national figure, helping explain the concentration of 1,529 couples with children and a 57.3% share of couples with children. Vietnamese ancestry is recorded for 3,009 people, followed by Chinese at 1,244 and Filipino at 696. Compared with nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, Cairnlea sits within the same family-oriented western corridor while displaying a particularly strong migrant and Asian cultural presence.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
88.6%
Houses
7.6%
Townhouse
3.8%
Apartment
Tenure
The housing stock is strongly detached, with 88.6% separate houses versus 3.8% apartments and 7.6% semi-detached dwellings. Larger homes dominate, with 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms compared with 30.5% containing 3 bedrooms. Tenure is also mortgage-heavy at 50.1%, while 33.4% own outright and 15.2% rent. This format is broadly consistent with nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, rather than denser inner-west housing.
Mortgage / mo
$1,883
Rent / wkiABS Census 2021 median across all dwelling types. Current market rents are typically higher.
$400
Census 2021
HH Size
3.4
Personal Income / wk
$658
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
3.6%
Unoccupied
104
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
19.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
57.3%
Couples with children
23.3%
Couples, no children
17.6%
Single parent
2,669
Total families
Economy & Employment
Cairnlea's household income of $2,062 per week ranks at the 77.2 percentile, above the middle of the income distribution, while 5,030 people are in the labour force and the participation rate is 62.1%. Healthcare is the largest industry at 16.9% and 462 workers, followed by retail at 8.9%, construction at 8.4%, education at 8.4% and transport at 8.3%. The largest occupation groups include professionals at 853 people, clerical and administrative workers at 693, and labourers at 583. Full-time employment is 58.9%, while unemployment is 6.6%. Socioeconomic results are uneven: the economic resources decile is 8, higher than the education and occupation decile of 5, while disadvantage measures sit lower at 3 and 4. This suggests solid earning capacity alongside weaker social and educational conditions.
Unemployment
6.6%
Labour Force
5,030
Unemployed
333
Source: ABS Census 2021
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
58.9%
Part-time
33.6%
Participation
62.1%
Employed
4,697
Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021
Occupations
Top Industries
University
42.8%
Postgraduate
7.0%
Born Overseas
53.2%
Dwellings
2,798
Transport to Work
Everyday movement in Cairnlea is car-led: 68.1% travel as car drivers, compared with 2.7% using public transport and 0.7% walking or cycling. A further 22.4% work from home, which may reduce commuting pressure but does not replace the need for reliable local connections. Two government schools provide primary and secondary options, giving families access to both sectors within the suburb, while exact enrolment zones should be checked against the address. Recorded crime totals 500 incidents at 49.8 per 1,000 residents, with property and deception offences at 278 compared with 72 crimes against the person. The IRSAD decile is 4 and the IRSD decile is 3, below the economic resources decile of 8. Need for assistance is 6.2%, while volunteering is 7.7%, indicating practical support needs alongside community participation.
Drive
68.1%
Public Transport
2.7%
Walk / Cycle
0.7%
Work from Home
22.4%
Population Forecast
+1.72%/yr
(+173 people/yr)
EstablishedCairnlea is recording positive growth at 1.72% annually, above a flat trajectory, with population change across the wider area reaching 13.6% over 10 years. Overseas migration is the primary growth driver, which aligns with the suburb's 53.2% overseas-born share and substantial Vietnamese, Chinese and Filipino populations. The forecast trajectory is labelled Aging: the senior share has increased by 6.4 percentage points, while the young share has fallen by 5.4 points and the working share by 1.7 points. Rent growth is 20.5%, but affordability is described as Stable, moving from 59.8 in 2011 to 60.8 in 2021. A gentrification score of 0 and a Not gentrifying stage indicate growth without a current premium-led transformation. Compared with rapidly upgrading areas, Cairnlea's change is more migration-led and age-shifted.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+129
Net Internal / yr
-216
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -216/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
500
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
49.8
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Cairnlea compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Cairnlea a good suburb to live in?
Cairnlea can suit households wanting larger homes, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Car travel is common at 68.1%, while public transport use is 2.7%, so lifestyle suitability depends on commuting needs.
What schools are in Cairnlea?
Cairnlea has 2 listed government schools: Cairnlea Park Primary School and Victoria University Secondary College. They cover primary and secondary education, but families should confirm the relevant enrolment zone for an exact address.
Is Cairnlea safe?
Cairnlea recorded 500 crimes at a rate of 49.8 incidents per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences were the largest category at 278 incidents, compared with 72 crimes against the person, so buyers should review the exact street and current local conditions.
How is Cairnlea's population changing?
Growth across the wider area is forecast at 1.72% annually, with overseas migration the primary driver and 13.6% population change over 10 years. The trajectory is Aging, with the senior share up 6.4 points and the young share down 5.4 points.
What languages and cultural groups are common in Cairnlea?
Cairnlea's largest recorded ancestry group is Vietnamese at 3,009 people, followed by Chinese at 1,244 and Filipino at 696. Languages recorded include Canton at 208 people, Macedon at 125 and Punjabi at 89.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), Valuer-General Victoria (house prices), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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