VIC 3023 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Cairnlea

Cairnlea's strongest defining feature is its combination of a family-sized housing market and a migrant-majority population. The suburb has 10,038 residents, a median age of 36, and 53.2% of people born overseas, which is 31.6 percentage points above the national comparison. Housing is dominated by separate homes at 88.6%, while 50.1% of households are paying a mortgage. Household income sits at the 77.2 percentile, above the middle of the distribution. The 3.4-person average household size is also 0.9 higher than national levels. This places Cairnlea in the same broad western family corridor as nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, but with a particularly strong Vietnamese, Chinese and Filipino presence.

Cairnlea urban fabric map

Population

10,038

Median Age

36.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$2,062/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

0

Median House

$982K

October to December 2025

4.41 km²· 2,278.2 people/km²· Family income $1,998/wk

Cairnlea suits buyers seeking a larger detached home, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Mortgage repayments are listed at $1,883 monthly, while the mortgage-to-income ratio is 21.1% and the household weekly income is $2,062. Compared with apartment-led markets, Cairnlea offers more family space, but its detached-house price point requires substantial borrowing.

For Buyers

Cairnlea suits buyers seeking a larger detached home, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Mortgage repayments are listed at $1,883 monthly, while the mortgage-to-income ratio is 21.1% and the household weekly income is $2,062. Compared with apartment-led markets, Cairnlea offers more family space, but its detached-house price point requires substantial borrowing.

For Investors

Cairnlea is primarily an owner-occupier market, with 15.2% of households renting compared with 33.4% owning outright and 50.1% holding a mortgage. The weekly rent is $400 and vacancy is 3.6%, providing a measurable rental base without suggesting the same tenant concentration as a high-renting suburb. Rent growth of 20.5% supports recent income momentum, while the wider growth trend is 1.72% annually and is driven mainly by overseas migration. Compared with the 50.1% mortgage share, the lower renter proportion means investors are competing in a market shaped by family homeowners rather than renters.

Schools in Cairnlea

Open-register school locations for education access. This is not a school-quality ranking.

Cairnlea Park Primary School

Primary Government

Victoria University Secondary College

Secondary Government

Demographics

Cairnlea has a younger median age of 36, which is 4 years below the national comparison, but its longer-term direction is ageing. Overseas-born residents account for 53.2% of the population, 31.6 percentage points above the national comparison, and 42.8% hold a university qualification, 12.7 points higher than national levels. The average household contains 3.4 people, or 0.9 above the national figure, helping explain the concentration of 1,529 couples with children and a 57.3% share of couples with children. Vietnamese ancestry is recorded for 3,009 people, followed by Chinese at 1,244 and Filipino at 696. Compared with nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, Cairnlea sits within the same family-oriented western corridor while displaying a particularly strong migrant and Asian cultural presence.

Age Distribution

0-14
19.2%
15-24
15.4%
25-44
27.4%
45-64
27.7%
65+
10.3%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
1.8%
2 bed
3.1%
3 bed
30.5%
4+ bed
64.6%

Dwelling Structure

88.6%

Houses

7.6%

Townhouse

3.8%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 33.4% Mortgage 50.1% Rent 15.2% Other 1.2%

The housing stock is strongly detached, with 88.6% separate houses versus 3.8% apartments and 7.6% semi-detached dwellings. Larger homes dominate, with 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms compared with 30.5% containing 3 bedrooms. Tenure is also mortgage-heavy at 50.1%, while 33.4% own outright and 15.2% rent. This format is broadly consistent with nearby Deer Park and Caroline Springs, rather than denser inner-west housing.

Mortgage / mo

$1,883

Rent / wkiABS Census 2021 median across all dwelling types. Current market rents are typically higher.

$400

Census 2021

HH Size

3.4

Personal Income / wk

$658

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

3.6%

Unoccupied

104

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

19.4%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

21.1%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Canton
208
Macedon
125
Punjabi
89
Arabic
84
Urdu
80
Oth
79

Ancestry

Vietnamese
3,009
Other
2,136
Chinese
1,244
Filipino
696
English
644
Ancestry NS
631

Household Composition

57.3%

Couples with children

23.3%

Couples, no children

17.6%

Single parent

2,669

Total families

Economy & Employment

Cairnlea's household income of $2,062 per week ranks at the 77.2 percentile, above the middle of the income distribution, while 5,030 people are in the labour force and the participation rate is 62.1%. Healthcare is the largest industry at 16.9% and 462 workers, followed by retail at 8.9%, construction at 8.4%, education at 8.4% and transport at 8.3%. The largest occupation groups include professionals at 853 people, clerical and administrative workers at 693, and labourers at 583. Full-time employment is 58.9%, while unemployment is 6.6%. Socioeconomic results are uneven: the economic resources decile is 8, higher than the education and occupation decile of 5, while disadvantage measures sit lower at 3 and 4. This suggests solid earning capacity alongside weaker social and educational conditions.

Unemployment

6.6%

Labour Force

5,030

Unemployed

333

Source: ABS Census 2021

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
4
Disadvantage
3
Economic resources
8
Education & occupation
5

Full-time

58.9%

Part-time

33.6%

Participation

62.1%

Employed

4,697

Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021

Occupations

Professionals 853
Clerical/Admin 693
Labourers 583
Machinery/Drivers 581
Trades 550
Community/Personal 431
Sales 428
Managers 427

Top Industries

Healthcare 16.9%
Retail 8.9%
Construction 8.4%
Education 8.4%
Transport 8.3%

University

42.8%

Postgraduate

7.0%

Born Overseas

53.2%

Dwellings

2,798

Transport to Work

Everyday movement in Cairnlea is car-led: 68.1% travel as car drivers, compared with 2.7% using public transport and 0.7% walking or cycling. A further 22.4% work from home, which may reduce commuting pressure but does not replace the need for reliable local connections. Two government schools provide primary and secondary options, giving families access to both sectors within the suburb, while exact enrolment zones should be checked against the address. Recorded crime totals 500 incidents at 49.8 per 1,000 residents, with property and deception offences at 278 compared with 72 crimes against the person. The IRSAD decile is 4 and the IRSD decile is 3, below the economic resources decile of 8. Need for assistance is 6.2%, while volunteering is 7.7%, indicating practical support needs alongside community participation.

Drive

68.1%

Public Transport

2.7%

Walk / Cycle

0.7%

Work from Home

22.4%

Population Forecast

+1.72%/yr

(+173 people/yr)

Established

Cairnlea is recording positive growth at 1.72% annually, above a flat trajectory, with population change across the wider area reaching 13.6% over 10 years. Overseas migration is the primary growth driver, which aligns with the suburb's 53.2% overseas-born share and substantial Vietnamese, Chinese and Filipino populations. The forecast trajectory is labelled Aging: the senior share has increased by 6.4 percentage points, while the young share has fallen by 5.4 points and the working share by 1.7 points. Rent growth is 20.5%, but affordability is described as Stable, moving from 59.8 in 2011 to 60.8 in 2021. A gentrification score of 0 and a Not gentrifying stage indicate growth without a current premium-led transformation. Compared with rapidly upgrading areas, Cairnlea's change is more migration-led and age-shifted.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+129

Net Internal / yr

-216

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Net internal outflow -216/yr

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

500

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

49.8

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
278
Justice procedures offences
92
Crimes against the person
72
Drug offences
34

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Cairnlea compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 5%
Household Income
Top 23%
Rent Level
Top 17%
Apartments
Top 13%
Renters
Top 50%
Uni Educated
Top 15%
Public Transport
Top 47%
Born Overseas
Top 2%
Density
Top 7%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Cairnlea a good suburb to live in?

Cairnlea can suit households wanting larger homes, with 88.6% of dwellings being separate houses and 64.6% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Car travel is common at 68.1%, while public transport use is 2.7%, so lifestyle suitability depends on commuting needs.

What schools are in Cairnlea?

Cairnlea has 2 listed government schools: Cairnlea Park Primary School and Victoria University Secondary College. They cover primary and secondary education, but families should confirm the relevant enrolment zone for an exact address.

Is Cairnlea safe?

Cairnlea recorded 500 crimes at a rate of 49.8 incidents per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences were the largest category at 278 incidents, compared with 72 crimes against the person, so buyers should review the exact street and current local conditions.

How is Cairnlea's population changing?

Growth across the wider area is forecast at 1.72% annually, with overseas migration the primary driver and 13.6% population change over 10 years. The trajectory is Aging, with the senior share up 6.4 points and the young share down 5.4 points.

What languages and cultural groups are common in Cairnlea?

Cairnlea's largest recorded ancestry group is Vietnamese at 3,009 people, followed by Chinese at 1,244 and Filipino at 696. Languages recorded include Canton at 208 people, Macedon at 125 and Punjabi at 89.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), Valuer-General Victoria (house prices), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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