VIC 3940 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Capel Sound

A median age of 59 sits 19 years above the national figure, and that single number explains most of what makes this Mornington Peninsula pocket tick. With a 35.2% vacancy rate, more than a third of dwellings stand empty for much of the year, the signature of a holiday-home market rather than oversupply. Household income lands in the 11th percentile nationally, and only 18.1% of residents hold a university qualification, 12 points below national, because the population skews toward retirees rather than career-stage workers. The $665,000 median house price has fallen 18.4% from its 2022 peak of $815,000, leaving the suburb cheaper than it was three years ago even as population climbs.

Capel Sound urban fabric map

Population

5,246

Median Age

59.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$950/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

21

Median House

$665K

Apr-Jun 2024

4.64 km²· 1,130.7 people/km²· Family income $1,316/wk

At a $665,000 median house price, this is one of the more accessible coastal markets within reach of Melbourne, and the figure is down 18.4% from the 2022 peak of $815,000, so buyers are entering below recent highs. The stock favours families and downsizers alike: 71.0% are separate houses against just 3.4% apartments, and three-bedroom homes dominate at 49.4% with two-bedroom dwellings at 34.4%. Average monthly mortgage repayments of $1,603 look modest, yet the mortgage-to-income ratio reaches 39.0%, well above the 30% stress threshold, because household income sits in the 11th percentile nationally. That gap means affordability here is driven by low prices meeting low incomes rather than genuine comfort, so buyers should stress-test repayments carefully.

For Buyers

At a $665,000 median house price, this is one of the more accessible coastal markets within reach of Melbourne, and the figure is down 18.4% from the 2022 peak of $815,000, so buyers are entering below recent highs. The stock favours families and downsizers alike: 71.0% are separate houses against just 3.4% apartments, and three-bedroom homes dominate at 49.4% with two-bedroom dwellings at 34.4%. Average monthly mortgage repayments of $1,603 look modest, yet the mortgage-to-income ratio reaches 39.0%, well above the 30% stress threshold, because household income sits in the 11th percentile nationally. That gap means affordability here is driven by low prices meeting low incomes rather than genuine comfort, so buyers should stress-test repayments carefully.

For Investors

The headline 35.2% vacancy rate would alarm most investors, but it reflects seasonal holiday homes left empty between visits rather than tenants who cannot be found, a quirk of this coastal market. For those targeting permanent tenants, 32.8% of residents rent and weekly rent averages $350, which against the $665,000 median implies a gross yield near 2.7%, modest but higher than premium Melbourne suburbs. Demand support comes mainly from internal migration, with net inflow of 70 residents a year against just 15 from overseas, so growth leans on Australians relocating for lifestyle. Development is light at 19 applications in 12 months, and rent has grown 32.0% over the period, which means the investment case rests on capital recovery from the 2022 peak and steady tenant demand more than new supply.

Development Activity

Total DAs

40

Last 12 Months

21

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+90.9%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
27
Subdivision
2
New Dwelling
2
Multi-Dwelling / Townhouse
1

Schools in Capel Sound iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Eastbourne Primary School

ICSEA 952 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 242 students

Demographics

The median age of 59 runs 19.0 years above the national figure, and the trajectory is firmly aging: the senior share rose 7.4 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 3.5 points. This is why participation in the labour force is only 33.3%, with 2,454 residents not working, far more about retirement than unemployment. Average household size is 1.9, which is 0.6 below national, consistent with the 40.1% of families that are couples with no children. Ancestry is strongly Anglo, led by English (2,273), Scottish (578) and Irish (524), and just 19.2% of residents were born overseas, 2.4 points below national. University qualifications at 18.1% sit 12 points under national, reflecting a population past its main earning years rather than a skills gap.

Age Distribution

0-14
12.4%
15-24
6.8%
25-44
17.3%
45-64
20.0%
65+
43.4%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
3.6%
2 bed
34.4%
3 bed
49.4%
4+ bed
12.6%

Dwelling Structure

71.0%

Houses

24.0%

Townhouse

3.4%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 43.5% Mortgage 23.8% Rent 32.8%

Tenure tilts toward outright ownership: 43.5% own their home debt-free, 23.8% carry a mortgage and 32.8% rent, a split that signals an established, retiree-heavy ownership base rather than churn from new buyers. The stock is overwhelmingly detached at 71.0% separate houses, with semi-detached dwellings at 24.0% and apartments a token 3.4%. Three-bedroom homes lead at 49.4%, then two-bedroom at 34.4%. The median house price of $665,000 has retreated 18.4% from the 2022 peak of $815,000, yet still sits 90.0% above the 2013 level of $350,000, a long-run compound rate of 4.7% a year. Both stress flags are tripped, with mortgage-to-income at 39.0% and rent-to-income at 36.8%, because incomes in the 11th percentile struggle against even modest coastal prices.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$1,603

Rent / wk

$350

HH Size

1.9

Personal Income / wk

$558

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

35.2%

Unoccupied

1,272

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

36.8% stressed

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

39.0% stressed

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Italian
57
Greek
22
Malayalam
13

Ancestry

English
2,273
Scottish
578
Irish
524
Ancestry NS
392
Italian
294
Other
258

Household Composition

40.1%

Couples, no children

3,298

Total families

Economy & Employment

The local workforce concentrates in care and trades rather than knowledge sectors: Healthcare leads at 22.8% (230 workers), Construction follows at 13.7% (138), then Education at 9.4% and Retail at 9.0%. By occupation, Community and Personal Service workers (239) and Labourers (223) outnumber Professionals (218), which aligns with the IEO score sitting in decile 2 for education and occupation, near the bottom nationally. Unemployment is low at 5.4% and full-time employment runs at 55.0%, but participation is only 33.3% because the aging profile leaves most residents outside the labour force. One anomaly stands out: the IER economic-resources score reads decile 7 against an IRSAD of decile 4, because high rates of outright home ownership lift the wealth measure even as current incomes stay low.

Unemployment

2.7%

Labour Force

3,453

Unemployed

92

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
4
Disadvantage
4
Economic resources
7
Education & occupation
2

Full-time

55.0%

Part-time

39.6%

Participation

33.3%

Employed

1,448

Occupations

Community/Personal 239
Labourers 223
Professionals 218
Managers 172
Sales 164
Clerical/Admin 156
Machinery/Drivers 96

Top Industries

Healthcare 22.8%
Construction 13.7%
Education 9.4%
Retail 9.0%
Hospitality 7.7%

University

18.1%

Postgraduate

2.6%

Born Overseas

19.2%

Dwellings

2,333

Transport to Work

This is a car-dependent suburb: 89.8% of residents drive to work while public transport carries just 0.3% and 3.4% walk or cycle, well below national active-transport rates, a reflection of the dispersed coastal layout. The crime rate is 79.1 per 1,000 residents, with 415 offences in the year, led by property and deception offences at 218 and crimes against the person at 80. No schools are recorded inside the 4.64 km2 boundary, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring Rosebud and Dromana, a practical trade-off for the low-density setting. The suburb scores decile 4 on IRSAD, below the national midpoint, and 15.1% of residents need daily assistance, higher than typical and consistent with the elderly median age of 59.

Drive

89.8%

Public Transport

0.3%

Walk / Cycle

3.4%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+1.36%/yr

(+82 people/yr)

Established

Population is growing steadily at 1.36% a year, adding about 82 residents annually, and the medium forecast lifts the count from 6,027 in 2025 to 6,475 by 2031. The 10-year change of 16.3% is solid for an established suburb, driven mainly by internal migration of 70 residents a year against just 15 from overseas, a sign that Australians are relocating here for lifestyle rather than new arrivals settling. The gentrification reading is early signs at a score of 32, supported by population up 24% since 2011 and growth accelerating from 8% to 15%. Affordability has held flat at 44.5% across 2011 to 2021, and rent has climbed 32.0% over the period, so the suburb is firming up without the rapid displacement of fully gentrifying areas.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Internal Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+15

Net Internal / yr

+70

32

Gentrification Signal

Early signs

Population +24% since 2011, Net internal migration +70/yr, Accelerating: 8% → 15%

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

415

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

79.1

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
218
Crimes against the person
80
Justice procedures offences
65
Drug offences
26

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Capel Sound compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 11%
Household Income
Bottom 11%
Rent Level
Top 28%
Apartments
Bottom 47%
Renters
Top 24%
Uni Educated
Bottom 30%
Public Transport
Bottom 1%
Born Overseas
Top 32%
Density
Top 14%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Capel Sound a good suburb to live in?

It suits retirees and lifestyle buyers more than career-stage families. The median age is 59, which is 19 years above national, and the $665,000 median house price is accessible for a coastal market. Trade-offs are an IRSAD score of decile 4, below the national midpoint, and a car-dependent layout with public transport at just 0.3%.

What is the median house price in Capel Sound?

The median house price is $665,000 as of the Apr-Jun 2024 quarter, down 18.4% from the 2022 peak of $815,000. It still sits 90.0% above the 2013 level of $350,000. Weekly rent averages $350 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $1,603.

What schools are in Capel Sound?

No schools are recorded inside the 4.64 km2 Capel Sound boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring Rosebud and Dromana. With a median age of 59 and 40.1% of families being couples with no children, school-age demand here is lower than in family suburbs.

Is Capel Sound safe?

The recorded crime rate is 79.1 per 1,000 residents, with 415 offences in the year. The largest category is property and deception offences at 218, followed by crimes against the person at 80, a profile weighted toward property crime that is common in suburbs with many seasonally vacant holiday homes.

Is Capel Sound good for property investment?

Rent of $350 a week against a $665,000 median gives a gross yield near 2.7%, higher than premium Melbourne suburbs. The 35.2% vacancy rate reflects seasonal holiday homes, not weak demand. Net internal migration of 70 residents a year supports growth, so returns lean on capital recovery from the 2022 peak.

How is Capel Sound's population changing?

Population is growing 1.36% a year, adding about 82 residents annually, and is forecast to rise from 6,027 in 2025 to 6,475 by 2031. The profile is aging, with the senior share up 7.4 points and the working-age share down 3.5 points over the decade.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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