Carrum Downs
Carrum Downs stands out for inland, mortgage-heavy family housing rather than beach proximity. Unlike nearby Seaford, its profile is led by 79.1% separate houses, 49.0% of homes with a mortgage and a $716,000 median house price. The population of 21,976 is slightly younger than the national norm, with a median age of 36, while household income sits above the middle at the 57.4th percentile. The trade-off is practical: prices remain below many bayside alternatives because commuting is car-led and the recorded crime rate is 105.3 per 1,000 people.
Population
21,976
Median Age
36.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,658/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
43
Median House
$716K
Apr-Jun 2024
Homebuyers get a mainly house-based market, with 79.1% separate houses, 19.6% semi-detached homes and only 0.4% apartments. That suits buyers needing space because 59.4% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms and 25.3% have 4 or more. The $716,000 median house price is just 0.6% below the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $720,000, so recent pricing is steady rather than discounted. Mortgage costs are not flagged as stressed, with repayments at 24.1% of income, lower than a pressure setting for many family budgets.
For Buyers
Homebuyers get a mainly house-based market, with 79.1% separate houses, 19.6% semi-detached homes and only 0.4% apartments. That suits buyers needing space because 59.4% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms and 25.3% have 4 or more. The $716,000 median house price is just 0.6% below the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $720,000, so recent pricing is steady rather than discounted. Mortgage costs are not flagged as stressed, with repayments at 24.1% of income, lower than a pressure setting for many family budgets.
For Investors
Investors face a mixed rental picture. Renting covers 28.1% of households and the median rent is $370 per week, but the 4.4% vacancy rate is the main watch point because it can limit short-term rent increases compared with tighter markets. Demand has a family base because apartments are only 0.4% of stock, while 22 development applications in 12 months point to gradual infill. Rent growth of 27.6% in the shift indicators adds upside, although car dependence and supply additions need monitoring.
Development Activity
Total DAs
63
Last 12 Months
43
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+760.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carrum Downs iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
St Joachim's School
Prep-6 · 328 students
Rowellyn Park Primary School
Prep-6 · 781 students
Banyan Fields Primary School
Prep-6 · 517 students
Carrum Downs Secondary College
7-12 · 928 students
Demographics
Carrum Downs has 21,976 residents with a median age of 36, which is 4.0 years below the national figure. Overseas-born residents account for 25.9%, sitting 4.3 percentage points above the national share, while university attainment is 22.7%, or 7.4 points below national. English ancestry is the largest counted group at 7,960, followed by Scottish at 1,929 and Irish at 1,867. Household size is 2.5, the same as the national benchmark, so the area reads as young-family and working-household oriented.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
79.1%
Houses
19.6%
Townhouse
0.4%
Apartment
Tenure
Housing values have more than doubled across the available series, rising from $330,000 in 2013 to a $716,000 median in Apr-Jun 2024, a 117.0% gain and 5.7% CAGR over 14 years. The latest price is only 0.6% below the $720,000 peak from Jan-Mar 2024, so the market is close to its high rather than in a deep correction. Tenure is mortgage-led, with 22.9% owned outright, 49.0% mortgaged and 28.1% renting, because the stock is built around attainable family houses rather than higher-density apartments.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,733
Rent / wk
$370
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$817
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.4%
Unoccupied
384
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.3%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
22.7%
Couples, no children
17,510
Total families
Economy & Employment
Carrum Downs has a broad service and trades workforce. Healthcare leads with 19.5% of workers, ahead of construction at 14.6%, manufacturing at 10.0%, education at 9.8% and retail at 8.2%. Occupations are spread across professionals at 1,555, clerical and admin at 1,535, and community and personal roles at 1,429. Unemployment is 5.0% with 62.5% participation. SEIFA shows the nuance: IEO is decile 3 and IRSAD decile 3, below average advantage, while IER decile 5 suggests household resources are closer to the middle.
Unemployment
4.8%
Labour Force
13,460
Unemployed
646
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
67.1%
Part-time
27.9%
Participation
62.5%
Employed
10,546
Occupations
Top Industries
University
22.7%
Postgraduate
4.7%
Born Overseas
25.9%
Dwellings
8,296
Transport to Work
Daily life is car-oriented: 91.4% drive to work, while public transport use is only 1.6% and walking or cycling is 1.4%. School choice is practical, with 4 local schools and an ICSEA range from 969 to 1052; St Joachim's School is the highest at 1052, while Rowellyn Park Primary has 781 enrolments and adds a large government option. Safety is the main livability caution, with 2,314 offences and 105.3 crimes per 1,000 people. IRSAD decile 3 is below average, helping explain value pricing but also mixed local outcomes.
Drive
91.4%
Public Transport
1.6%
Walk / Cycle
1.4%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.19%/yr
(+280 people/yr)
EstablishedGrowth is steady rather than speculative. The trend forecast adds 1.19% a year, or about 280 people annually, lifting the medium population path from 23,876 in 2026 to 25,276 by 2031. Compared with the 2025 population of 23,464, that is incremental expansion. Migration is driven by overseas inflow, averaging +186 people a year, while internal migration averages -47. The suburb is also aging, with seniors up 3.3 points and younger share down 2.1 points. Gentrification score is 6 and stage is Not gentrifying.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+186
Net Internal / yr
-47
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +19% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
2,314
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
105.3
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carrum Downs compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carrum Downs a good suburb to live in?
Carrum Downs suits households wanting space and relative affordability, with 79.1% separate houses and a $716,000 median house price. The main cautions are car dependence at 91.4% and a crime rate of 105.3 per 1,000 people.
What is the median house price in Carrum Downs?
The median house price in Carrum Downs is $716,000 for Apr-Jun 2024. That is 0.6% below the recent $720,000 peak in Jan-Mar 2024 and 117.0% above the $330,000 level recorded in 2013.
What schools are in Carrum Downs?
Carrum Downs has 4 local schools: St Joachim's School, Rowellyn Park Primary School, Banyan Fields Primary School and Carrum Downs Secondary College. ICSEA scores range from 969 to 1052, with enrolments from 328 to 928.
Is Carrum Downs safe?
Recorded crime totals 2,314 incidents, or 105.3 per 1,000 people. Property and deception offences are the largest category at 1,175, so buyers should check street-level patterns and home security rather than rely on the suburb-wide rate alone.
Is Carrum Downs good for property investment?
Carrum Downs has investor appeal through 28.1% renting, a $370 weekly median rent and a family-house tenant base. The 4.4% vacancy rate and 22 recent development applications mean investors should test rent assumptions carefully.
How is Carrum Downs's population changing?
Carrum Downs is forecast to grow by 1.19% a year, or about 280 people annually. The medium path reaches 25,276 residents by 2031, with overseas migration adding 186 people a year and internal migration subtracting 47.
Is there much development in Carrum Downs?
There were 22 development applications in the past 12 months, including examples for 2 dwellings, a medical centre use and 9 double-storey dwellings. That points to selective infill rather than a wholesale rebuild of the suburb.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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