VIC 3201 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Carrum Downs

Carrum Downs stands out for inland, mortgage-heavy family housing rather than beach proximity. Unlike nearby Seaford, its profile is led by 79.1% separate houses, 49.0% of homes with a mortgage and a $716,000 median house price. The population of 21,976 is slightly younger than the national norm, with a median age of 36, while household income sits above the middle at the 57.4th percentile. The trade-off is practical: prices remain below many bayside alternatives because commuting is car-led and the recorded crime rate is 105.3 per 1,000 people.

Carrum Downs urban fabric map

Population

21,976

Median Age

36.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,658/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

43

Median House

$716K

Apr-Jun 2024

20.31 km²· 1,082.1 people/km²· Family income $1,993/wk

Homebuyers get a mainly house-based market, with 79.1% separate houses, 19.6% semi-detached homes and only 0.4% apartments. That suits buyers needing space because 59.4% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms and 25.3% have 4 or more. The $716,000 median house price is just 0.6% below the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $720,000, so recent pricing is steady rather than discounted. Mortgage costs are not flagged as stressed, with repayments at 24.1% of income, lower than a pressure setting for many family budgets.

For Buyers

Homebuyers get a mainly house-based market, with 79.1% separate houses, 19.6% semi-detached homes and only 0.4% apartments. That suits buyers needing space because 59.4% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms and 25.3% have 4 or more. The $716,000 median house price is just 0.6% below the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $720,000, so recent pricing is steady rather than discounted. Mortgage costs are not flagged as stressed, with repayments at 24.1% of income, lower than a pressure setting for many family budgets.

For Investors

Investors face a mixed rental picture. Renting covers 28.1% of households and the median rent is $370 per week, but the 4.4% vacancy rate is the main watch point because it can limit short-term rent increases compared with tighter markets. Demand has a family base because apartments are only 0.4% of stock, while 22 development applications in 12 months point to gradual infill. Rent growth of 27.6% in the shift indicators adds upside, although car dependence and supply additions need monitoring.

Development Activity

Total DAs

63

Last 12 Months

43

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+760.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Subdivision
18
Other
9
Commercial / Industrial
5
New Dwelling
4
Renovation / Extension
3
Tree Removal
3
Garage / Carport / Shed
2
Multi-Dwelling / Townhouse
2

Schools in Carrum Downs iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

St Joachim's School

ICSEA 1052 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 328 students

Rowellyn Park Primary School

ICSEA 1003 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 781 students

Banyan Fields Primary School

ICSEA 987 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 517 students

Carrum Downs Secondary College

ICSEA 969 Secondary Government

7-12 · 928 students

Demographics

Carrum Downs has 21,976 residents with a median age of 36, which is 4.0 years below the national figure. Overseas-born residents account for 25.9%, sitting 4.3 percentage points above the national share, while university attainment is 22.7%, or 7.4 points below national. English ancestry is the largest counted group at 7,960, followed by Scottish at 1,929 and Irish at 1,867. Household size is 2.5, the same as the national benchmark, so the area reads as young-family and working-household oriented.

Age Distribution

0-14
19.2%
15-24
11.3%
25-44
31.3%
45-64
24.8%
65+
13.5%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
2.8%
2 bed
12.5%
3 bed
59.4%
4+ bed
25.3%

Dwelling Structure

79.1%

Houses

19.6%

Townhouse

0.4%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 22.9% Mortgage 49.0% Rent 28.1%

Housing values have more than doubled across the available series, rising from $330,000 in 2013 to a $716,000 median in Apr-Jun 2024, a 117.0% gain and 5.7% CAGR over 14 years. The latest price is only 0.6% below the $720,000 peak from Jan-Mar 2024, so the market is close to its high rather than in a deep correction. Tenure is mortgage-led, with 22.9% owned outright, 49.0% mortgaged and 28.1% renting, because the stock is built around attainable family houses rather than higher-density apartments.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$1,733

Rent / wk

$370

HH Size

2.5

Personal Income / wk

$817

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

4.4%

Unoccupied

384

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.3%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

24.1%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Punjabi
112
Greek
103
Hindi
97
Mandarin
87
Arabic
67
Russian
65

Ancestry

English
7,960
Other
2,794
Scottish
1,929
Irish
1,867
Ancestry NS
1,151
Italian
900

Household Composition

22.7%

Couples, no children

17,510

Total families

Economy & Employment

Carrum Downs has a broad service and trades workforce. Healthcare leads with 19.5% of workers, ahead of construction at 14.6%, manufacturing at 10.0%, education at 9.8% and retail at 8.2%. Occupations are spread across professionals at 1,555, clerical and admin at 1,535, and community and personal roles at 1,429. Unemployment is 5.0% with 62.5% participation. SEIFA shows the nuance: IEO is decile 3 and IRSAD decile 3, below average advantage, while IER decile 5 suggests household resources are closer to the middle.

Unemployment

4.8%

Labour Force

13,460

Unemployed

646

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
3
Disadvantage
4
Economic resources
5
Education & occupation
3

Full-time

67.1%

Part-time

27.9%

Participation

62.5%

Employed

10,546

Occupations

Professionals 1,555
Clerical/Admin 1,535
Community/Personal 1,429
Labourers 1,339
Machinery/Drivers 1,081
Managers 1,052
Sales 1,031

Top Industries

Healthcare 19.5%
Construction 14.6%
Manufacturing 10.0%
Education 9.8%
Retail 8.2%

University

22.7%

Postgraduate

4.7%

Born Overseas

25.9%

Dwellings

8,296

Transport to Work

Daily life is car-oriented: 91.4% drive to work, while public transport use is only 1.6% and walking or cycling is 1.4%. School choice is practical, with 4 local schools and an ICSEA range from 969 to 1052; St Joachim's School is the highest at 1052, while Rowellyn Park Primary has 781 enrolments and adds a large government option. Safety is the main livability caution, with 2,314 offences and 105.3 crimes per 1,000 people. IRSAD decile 3 is below average, helping explain value pricing but also mixed local outcomes.

Drive

91.4%

Public Transport

1.6%

Walk / Cycle

1.4%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+1.19%/yr

(+280 people/yr)

Established

Growth is steady rather than speculative. The trend forecast adds 1.19% a year, or about 280 people annually, lifting the medium population path from 23,876 in 2026 to 25,276 by 2031. Compared with the 2025 population of 23,464, that is incremental expansion. Migration is driven by overseas inflow, averaging +186 people a year, while internal migration averages -47. The suburb is also aging, with seniors up 3.3 points and younger share down 2.1 points. Gentrification score is 6 and stage is Not gentrifying.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+186

Net Internal / yr

-47

6

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Population +19% since 2011

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

2,314

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

105.3

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
1,175
Justice procedures offences
515
Crimes against the person
346
Public order and security offences
142

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Carrum Downs compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 1%
Household Income
Top 43%
Rent Level
Top 22%
Apartments
Bottom 7%
Renters
Top 32%
Uni Educated
Bottom 46%
Public Transport
Bottom 27%
Born Overseas
Top 19%
Density
Top 15%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Carrum Downs a good suburb to live in?

Carrum Downs suits households wanting space and relative affordability, with 79.1% separate houses and a $716,000 median house price. The main cautions are car dependence at 91.4% and a crime rate of 105.3 per 1,000 people.

What is the median house price in Carrum Downs?

The median house price in Carrum Downs is $716,000 for Apr-Jun 2024. That is 0.6% below the recent $720,000 peak in Jan-Mar 2024 and 117.0% above the $330,000 level recorded in 2013.

What schools are in Carrum Downs?

Carrum Downs has 4 local schools: St Joachim's School, Rowellyn Park Primary School, Banyan Fields Primary School and Carrum Downs Secondary College. ICSEA scores range from 969 to 1052, with enrolments from 328 to 928.

Is Carrum Downs safe?

Recorded crime totals 2,314 incidents, or 105.3 per 1,000 people. Property and deception offences are the largest category at 1,175, so buyers should check street-level patterns and home security rather than rely on the suburb-wide rate alone.

Is Carrum Downs good for property investment?

Carrum Downs has investor appeal through 28.1% renting, a $370 weekly median rent and a family-house tenant base. The 4.4% vacancy rate and 22 recent development applications mean investors should test rent assumptions carefully.

How is Carrum Downs's population changing?

Carrum Downs is forecast to grow by 1.19% a year, or about 280 people annually. The medium path reaches 25,276 residents by 2031, with overseas migration adding 186 people a year and internal migration subtracting 47.

Is there much development in Carrum Downs?

There were 22 development applications in the past 12 months, including examples for 2 dwellings, a medical centre use and 9 double-storey dwellings. That points to selective infill rather than a wholesale rebuild of the suburb.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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