Carrum Downs
A 79.1% separate-house share and a population of 21,976 make Carrum Downs a family-oriented, car-dependent suburb, while its median age of 36 is 4 years below the national figure. Mortgage ownership is prominent: 48.3% of households are paying off a loan, compared with 22.5% owned outright, and household income sits at the 57.4th percentile. Its 20.31 sq km footprint and density of 1,082.1 people per sq km give Carrum Downs a more spread-out setting than nearby Seaford. The overseas-born share is 25.9%, or 4.3 percentage points above national, adding cultural variety within a predominantly detached-house setting.
Population
21,976
Median Age
36.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,658/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
57
Median House
$845K
October to December 2025
Three-bedroom homes account for 59.4% of the housing stock and four-bedroom-plus homes a further 25.3%, while apartments represent only 0.4%. Compared with renting at $370 per week, the typical mortgage commitment of $1,733 per month gives buyers a clear ownership-versus-rental calculation. Mortgage-to-income pressure is measured at 24.1%, below the rent-to-income figure of 22.3% only marginally, so borrowing capacity still matters. The 48.3% mortgage share indicates an established mortgage-belt market rather than a predominantly investor-owned area.
For Buyers
Three-bedroom homes account for 59.4% of the housing stock and four-bedroom-plus homes a further 25.3%, while apartments represent only 0.4%. Compared with renting at $370 per week, the typical mortgage commitment of $1,733 per month gives buyers a clear ownership-versus-rental calculation. Mortgage-to-income pressure is measured at 24.1%, below the rent-to-income figure of 22.3% only marginally, so borrowing capacity still matters. The 48.3% mortgage share indicates an established mortgage-belt market rather than a predominantly investor-owned area.
For Investors
Carrum Downs has a 27.7% rental share, a weekly median rent of $370 and a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The rental base is lower than the 48.3% mortgage share, suggesting that owner-occupiers remain central to demand, while the established tenant pool can support well-located family rentals. Planning activity is notable, with 57 development matters recorded over 12 months, including proposals for 31 dwellings, 55 lots and 11 double-storey dwellings. Forecast growth of 1.19% annually, driven by overseas migration, provides a positive demand backdrop. Investors should weigh that growth against the suburb's 4.4% vacancy rate and its detached-house concentration, because new supply may increase competition between similar properties.
Development Activity
Total DAs
80
Last 12 Months
57
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+714.3%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carrum Downs
Open-register school locations for education access. This is not a school-quality ranking.
Banyan Fields Primary School
Rowellyn Park Primary School
St Joachim's School
Carrum Downs Secondary College
Demographics
Carrum Downs has a median age of 36, which is 4 years below the national figure, although its trajectory is aging. Couples with children represent 43.7% of families and one-parent families 21.9%, helping explain the strong demand for three and four-bedroom homes. University attainment is 22.7%, or 7.4 percentage points below national, while the overseas-born share is 25.9%, 4.3 points above national. English ancestry is recorded for 7,960 residents, followed by Scottish at 1,929 and Irish at 1,867. Punjabi, Greek, Hindi, Mandarin and Arabic are among the leading recorded languages. Compared with nearby Seaford and Langwarrin, Carrum Downs has a clear family-suburban profile, reinforced by an average household size of 2.5.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
79.1%
Houses
19.6%
Townhouse
0.4%
Apartment
Tenure
The latest figure is also the peak, producing a peak-to-latest change of 0.0%. Tenure is led by mortgages at 48.3%, followed by outright ownership at 22.5% and renting at 27.7%. Housing is mainly detached, with 79.1% separate houses and 19.6% semi-detached dwellings. The bedroom mix is concentrated in three-bedroom homes at 59.4%, so Carrum Downs remains more family-house oriented than apartment-led.
Mortgage / mo
$1,733
Rent / wkiMedian weekly rent for new bonds (year ending Sep 2025), Homes Victoria bond data (year-ending median). Census 2021 median: $370.
$560
Bond data year ending Sep 2025 · houses $560 · units $470
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$817
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.4%
Unoccupied
384
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.3%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
43.7%
Couples with children
32.8%
Couples, no children
21.9%
Single parent
5,994
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the largest industry at 19.5%, or 1,360 workers, followed by construction at 14.6% and 1,017, manufacturing at 10.0% and 700, education at 9.8% and 682, and retail at 8.2% and 574. The occupational mix is similarly practical, led by trades at 2,064, professionals at 1,555, clerical and administrative workers at 1,535, community and personal service workers at 1,429, and labourers at 1,339. Labour-force participation is 66.8%, full-time employment is 62.6% and unemployment is 4.7%. SEIFA results are uneven: IEO is decile 3, IRSAD decile 3, IRSD decile 4 and IER decile 5. The lower education and advantage deciles sit below the midpoint, while the income decile is closer to average, reflecting a working mortgage-belt economy.
Unemployment
4.7%
Labour Force
11,863
Unemployed
553
Source: ABS Census 2021
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
62.6%
Part-time
30.7%
Participation
66.8%
Employed
11,310
Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021
Occupations
Top Industries
University
22.7%
Postgraduate
4.7%
Born Overseas
25.9%
Dwellings
8,296
Transport to Work
Daily life is strongly car-oriented: 75.9% of residents travel as car drivers, compared with 1.4% using public transport, 1.2% walking or cycling and 16.9% working from home. That transport pattern reflects the suburb's spread-out form and makes access to employment, shops and services more practical by car. Four local schools provide a mix of three primary schools and one secondary college, with three government schools and one Catholic school. Enrolment zones should be checked against the exact address because they can cross suburb boundaries. Safety requires attention: 2,314 recorded offences correspond to 105.3 per 1,000 people, with property and deception offences at 1,175, above justice procedures offences at 515 and crimes against the person at 346. IRSAD is decile 3, below the middle deciles nationally.
Drive
75.9%
Public Transport
1.4%
Walk / Cycle
1.2%
Work from Home
16.9%
Population Forecast
+1.19%/yr
(+280 people/yr)
EstablishedCarrum Downs is forecast to grow at 1.19% annually, with overseas migration identified as the primary driver. The wider area's population change is 14.9% over 10 years, while the shift trajectory is labelled Aging, supported by a 3.3 percentage-point rise in the senior share and a 2.1-point fall in the young share. Rent growth of 27.6% indicates stronger rental escalation than the 1.19% annual population trend. Gentrification is assessed as Not gentrifying with a score of 6, although the separate shift indicator is higher at 30 and labelled Early signs. Together, these figures point to established expansion and demographic maturation rather than a rapid change in suburb character.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+186
Net Internal / yr
-47
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +19% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
2,314
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
105.3
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carrum Downs compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carrum Downs a good suburb to live in?
Carrum Downs suits households wanting detached housing and access to family-sized homes, with 79.1% separate houses and a median age of 36. Car dependence is high at 75.9%, while the crime rate is 105.3 offences per 1,000 people, so lifestyle priorities and exact location matter.
What schools are in Carrum Downs?
Carrum Downs has 4 listed schools: St Joachim's School, Banyan Fields Primary School, Carrum Downs Secondary College and Rowellyn Park Primary School. The mix includes 3 primary schools, 1 secondary college, 3 government schools and 1 Catholic school.
Is Carrum Downs safe?
Safety is mixed rather than uniform. There were 2,314 recorded offences, equal to 105.3 per 1,000 people. Property and deception offences accounted for 1,175 cases, compared with 515 justice procedures offences and 346 crimes against the person, so street-level checks remain important.
Is Carrum Downs good for property investment?
Carrum Downs has an established rental base, with 27.7% of households renting, a median rent of $370 per week and vacancy of 4.4%. Forecast growth is 1.19% annually, driven by overseas migration, while 57 development matters in 12 months indicate future supply should be monitored.
How is Carrum Downs's population changing?
The wider area's population change is forecast at 14.9% over 10 years, with annual growth of 1.19% driven by overseas migration. Carrum Downs is also on an Aging trajectory: the senior share has increased by 3.3 percentage points while the young share has fallen by 2.1 points.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), Valuer-General Victoria (house prices), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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