Carrum
At 1.56 sq km on Port Phillip Bay, Carrum packs a $1,040,000 median house price and a 9.6% rental vacancy rate into one of Melbourne's most compact coastal pockets. That vacancy figure is high relative to the suburban norm, reflecting a semi-detached-heavy stock where 41.7% of dwellings are townhouses or duplexes rather than traditional houses. SEIFA places the suburb at decile 7 across all four indexes, above the national midpoint but not in the top tier. Household income sits at the 60.8th percentile nationally, and real incomes grew 12.2% over the decade, keeping affordability ahead of many coastal peers.
Population
4,239
Median Age
40.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,732/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
26
Median House
$1.0M
Apr-Jun 2024
The $1,040,000 median house price is down from a peak of $1,125,000 recorded in Oct-Dec 2023, a 7.6% correction that has reopened entry points for buyers. Over 14 years the price has doubled from $510,000, a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. Only 45.2% of dwellings are separate houses, so a detached-home purchase competes against limited supply. Semi-detached options at 41.7% offer an alternative at lower price points. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 51.7% of stock. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,069, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.6%, below the 30% stress threshold, which is healthier than many comparable bayside suburbs.
For Buyers
The $1,040,000 median house price is down from a peak of $1,125,000 recorded in Oct-Dec 2023, a 7.6% correction that has reopened entry points for buyers. Over 14 years the price has doubled from $510,000, a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. Only 45.2% of dwellings are separate houses, so a detached-home purchase competes against limited supply. Semi-detached options at 41.7% offer an alternative at lower price points. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 51.7% of stock. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,069, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.6%, below the 30% stress threshold, which is healthier than many comparable bayside suburbs.
For Investors
Rental demand has some depth, with 31.2% of residents renting and weekly rent at $406, but the 9.6% vacancy rate signals genuine oversupply relative to most Melbourne suburban markets. Overseas migration of 186 residents per year is the primary growth driver, above the net internal outflow of 47, suggesting demand from newly arrived residents rather than local churn. Development activity recorded 24 applications in the past 12 months, mostly multi-dwelling projects, meaning new stock is entering the market. Rent grew 27.6% over the measured period, and the 14-year price CAGR of 5.2% provides a reasonable capital growth track record compared to the broader VIC market.
Development Activity
Total DAs
30
Last 12 Months
26
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+766.7%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carrum iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Carrum Primary School
Prep-6 · 369 students
Demographics
The median age of 40 matches the national figure exactly, making Carrum demographically average in age terms despite an aging trajectory where the senior share rose 3.3 points over the decade. Overseas-born residents reach 22.2%, which is 0.6 points above the national average, a modest international component. Ancestry is Anglo-Celtic in character, led by English (1,665 residents), Irish (551) and Scottish (442), with Italian (194) a notable addition. University qualifications at 34.0% run 3.9 points above the national figure, consistent with the decile 7 IEO score for education and occupation. Average household size is 2.3, which is 0.2 below the national figure, reflecting the older couples profile.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
45.2%
Houses
41.7%
Townhouse
12.7%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure is split with 31.6% owning outright, 37.2% carrying a mortgage and 31.2% renting, a relatively balanced profile for a bayside suburb. The housing mix skews toward semi-detached at 41.7%, with separate houses at 45.2% and apartments at 12.7%. Three-bedroom homes account for 51.7% of dwellings and 2-bedroom stock 31.2%, giving buyers a range of entry points. The price track runs from $510,000 in 2013 to $1,040,000 in Apr-Jun 2024, a 103.9% gain over 14 years. The price pulled back 7.6% from the Oct-Dec 2023 peak of $1,125,000, offering buyers some breathing room compared to peak conditions. Mortgage-to-income at 27.6% and rent-to-income at 23.4% both sit below stress levels.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,069
Rent / wk
$406
HH Size
2.3
Personal Income / wk
$925
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
9.6%
Unoccupied
192
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.6%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
27.9%
Couples, no children
3,226
Total families
Economy & Employment
The local workforce leans toward service sectors: Healthcare leads at 18.5% (289 workers), followed by Construction at 15.3% (239), Education at 12.1% (189), Professional/Tech at 9.3% (145) and Public Admin at 7.4% (115). By occupation, Professionals (557) are the largest group, followed by Clerical/Admin (306) and Managers (302), consistent with the decile 7 IEO score for education and occupation. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, close to the state average, with a full-time employment rate of 67.4% and a participation rate of 61.8%. The SEIFA IRSD decile of 7 places Carrum above the national midpoint on relative disadvantage, meaning fewer residents face entrenched socioeconomic barriers than in most suburbs nationally.
Unemployment
5.4%
Labour Force
7,222
Unemployed
388
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
67.4%
Part-time
28.2%
Participation
61.8%
Employed
2,060
Occupations
Top Industries
University
34.0%
Postgraduate
7.3%
Born Overseas
22.2%
Dwellings
1,800
Transport to Work
Car dependence is pronounced at 88.6% of workers commuting by car, above the national average, and public transport use sits at 5.1%. Walkability and cycling account for 1.5% of commutes, modest for a compact 1.56 sq km footprint. The crime rate of 81.6 incidents per 1,000 residents is noteworthy, with property and deception offences (179 incidents) the dominant category. The IRSAD decile of 7 places Carrum above the national median on socioeconomic conditions. No schools are recorded inside the suburb boundary, so families rely on institutions in adjacent suburbs. Volunteering engagement is 11.6%, and 5.3% of residents (214 people) require daily assistance, a rate that will likely rise given the aging demographic trajectory.
Drive
88.6%
Public Transport
5.1%
Walk / Cycle
1.5%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.19%/yr
(+280 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew 14.9% over the decade and the current figure of 4,239 continues rising at approximately 1.19% per year, equivalent to around 50 residents annually at the suburb level. Medium forecasts for the broader SA2 area project growth from 23,464 in 2025 to 25,276 by 2031. Overseas migration adds 186 residents per year on net, which more than offsets an internal outflow of 47. The gentrification score of 6 puts Carrum in the not gentrifying stage, partly because it sits at decile 7 advantage already, with limited room to climb compared to lower-decile suburbs. Affordability improved from 49.0% in 2011 to 45.3% in 2021, a trend that reflects real income growth of 12.2% outpacing price gains over that period.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+186
Net Internal / yr
-47
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +19% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
346
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
81.6
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carrum compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carrum a good suburb to live in?
Carrum sits at SEIFA decile 7 across all four indexes, above the national midpoint, with household income at the 60.8th percentile nationally. The suburb's 1.56 sq km coastal footprint and median age of 40 match the national average, though car dependence is high at 88.6% and the crime rate of 81.6 per 1,000 residents is worth factoring into comparisons with other bayside suburbs.
What is the median house price in Carrum?
The median house price is $1,040,000, recorded in the Apr-Jun 2024 quarter. This is down 7.6% from the Oct-Dec 2023 peak of $1,125,000. Over 14 years the price has risen 103.9% from $510,000, a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. Weekly rent averages $406 and monthly mortgage repayments average $2,069.
What schools are in Carrum?
No schools are recorded inside the Carrum boundary (postcode 3197) in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The local education level is above average, with 34.0% of residents holding university qualifications, which is 3.9 percentage points above the national figure, suggesting many households already navigate to nearby school options.
Is Carrum safe?
Carrum recorded 346 total crimes in the measured year, giving a crime rate of 81.6 per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences account for the largest share at 179 incidents, followed by crimes against the person at 67. The suburb scores IRSAD decile 7, above the national median on socioeconomic advantage, which correlates with lower chronic disadvantage than many higher-crime areas.
Is Carrum good for property investment?
The 14-year price CAGR of 5.2% from $510,000 to $1,040,000 provides a credible capital growth track record. However, the 9.6% vacancy rate is elevated compared to typical Melbourne suburban markets, and the 31.2% renter base at $406 weekly rent implies thin gross yields against the $1,040,000 median. Net overseas migration of 186 per year supports long-term demand, and 24 development applications in the past 12 months signals ongoing confidence in the area.
How is Carrum's population changing?
Carrum grew 14.9% over the past decade and continues expanding at about 1.19% per year. Overseas migration drives that growth at a net 186 arrivals annually, more than offsetting an internal outflow of 47 people per year. The demographic trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 3.3 points, while the working-age share rose a modest 1.6 points over the decade.
How much development is happening in Carrum?
Carrum recorded 24 development applications in the past 12 months, including multiple projects for 4 dwellings on single lots, suggesting medium-density infill is the dominant activity. At 1.56 sq km, the suburb has limited land for large-scale development, so most activity is lot-by-lot consolidation. This pace of applications is above what many comparably sized suburbs attract nationally.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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