VIC 3196 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Chelsea Heights

Median house prices here have climbed 104.3% since 2013, from $465,000 to $950,000, yet the latest figure still sits 2.8% below the 2021 peak of $977,500, a sign the market plateaued rather than kept rising. The housing stock is overwhelmingly detached at 79.0% of dwellings, well above the apartment share of 7.8%, which makes this a family-house pocket rather than a unit market. Household income reaches the 67.4th percentile nationally, comfortably above the midpoint, and 46.4% of homes carry a mortgage against 40.4% owned outright. At a median age of 40, level with the national figure, the suburb is quietly aging: the senior share rose 8.3 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 5.5 points.

Chelsea Heights urban fabric map

Population

5,393

Median Age

40.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,867/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

15

Median House

$950K

Apr-Jun 2024

3.2 km²· 1,687.5 people/km²· Family income $2,313/wk

The $950,000 median sits 2.8% below the 2021 peak of $977,500, so buyers are entering after a plateau rather than chasing a rising market. Stock strongly favours families: 79.0% are separate houses and three-bedroom homes make up 51.0% of dwellings, with 4-plus bedroom places another 30.8%, leaving little for downsizers since apartments are just 7.8%. Affordability is the standout: monthly mortgage repayments average $2,001 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 24.8%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, helped by household income in the 67.4th percentile. That gap matters because it means a typical buyer here carries less repayment pressure than in pricier inner-Melbourne markets at the same income. Owners are well established, with 40.4% holding their home outright versus 46.4% still paying a mortgage.

For Buyers

The $950,000 median sits 2.8% below the 2021 peak of $977,500, so buyers are entering after a plateau rather than chasing a rising market. Stock strongly favours families: 79.0% are separate houses and three-bedroom homes make up 51.0% of dwellings, with 4-plus bedroom places another 30.8%, leaving little for downsizers since apartments are just 7.8%. Affordability is the standout: monthly mortgage repayments average $2,001 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 24.8%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, helped by household income in the 67.4th percentile. That gap matters because it means a typical buyer here carries less repayment pressure than in pricier inner-Melbourne markets at the same income. Owners are well established, with 40.4% holding their home outright versus 46.4% still paying a mortgage.

For Investors

Renters make up only 13.2% of households, one of the smaller tenant pools you will find, which limits the rental market but reflects an owner-occupier suburb. Weekly rent averages $412 against the $950,000 median, implying a gross yield near 2.3%, low and typical of detached-house markets where capital value runs ahead of rent. The vacancy rate of 3.9% is loose rather than tight, so tenant demand is steady but not scarce. Rents have still grown 64.1% over the measured period, a stronger move than prices, which slipped 2.8% from their 2021 peak. Demand support is thin: net overseas migration adds about 36 residents a year while internal migration removes roughly 60, and only 15 development applications were lodged in 12 months, mostly tree removals and sheds rather than new dwellings. The case rests on rent escalation and the scarcity of detached stock, not yield or new supply.

Development Activity

Total DAs

15

Last 12 Months

15

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Tree Removal
9
Subdivision
2
Other
2
Signage / Advertising
1
Garage / Carport / Shed
1

Schools in Chelsea Heights iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Chelsea Heights Primary School

ICSEA 1059 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 415 students

Demographics

The median age of 40 is level with the national figure, but the trajectory tells the real story: the senior share rose 8.3 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 5.5 points, an aging pattern despite a flat headline age. University qualifications reach 32.4%, which is 2.3 points above national, and 26.1% of residents were born overseas, 4.5 points higher than the national rate. Average household size is 2.6, just 0.1 above national, consistent with a family profile where couples with children (2,028 families) outnumber couples without children (971). Ancestry leans Anglo-Celtic, led by English (1,862), Irish (586) and Scottish (475), and the most common non-English languages are Greek (61 speakers), Mandarin (42) and Russian (28). Residential stability is high, with 86.9% of residents staying put and turnover at just 13.1%.

Age Distribution

0-14
19.5%
15-24
10.9%
25-44
25.3%
45-64
25.8%
65+
18.4%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
1.7%
2 bed
16.4%
3 bed
51.0%
4+ bed
30.8%

Dwelling Structure

79.0%

Houses

13.2%

Townhouse

7.8%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 40.4% Mortgage 46.4% Rent 13.2%

Tenure skews firmly to owners: 46.4% carry a mortgage, 40.4% own outright and only 13.2% rent, so renters are a small minority compared with the near-even ownership split. The stock is 79.0% separate houses, far above the apartment share of 7.8%, with three-bedroom dwellings the dominant type at 51.0% and 4-plus bedroom homes at 30.8%. The median house price rose from $465,000 in 2013 to $950,000 by mid-2024, a 104.3% gain that works out to 5.2% compound annual growth over 14 years, though the latest figure remains 2.8% below the 2021 peak of $977,500. Mortgage-to-income sits at 24.8% and rent-to-income at 22.1%, both below the 30% stress line, which reflects how household income in the 67.4th percentile keeps repayment pressure manageable even after the long price run.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,001

Rent / wk

$412

HH Size

2.6

Personal Income / wk

$805

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

3.9%

Unoccupied

81

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.1%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

24.8%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Greek
61
Mandarin
42
Russian
28
Italian
24
Canton
19
French
19

Ancestry

English
1,862
Other
612
Irish
586
Scottish
475
Italian
291
Ancestry NS
203

Household Composition

21.2%

Couples, no children

4,570

Total families

Economy & Employment

The local workforce is anchored in services and trades rather than corporate sectors: Healthcare leads at 16.9% (309 workers), Construction follows at 13.6% (248) and Education at 12.1% (221), with Manufacturing at 10.8% and Professional/Tech at 7.7%. By occupation, Professionals (596) lead, followed by Clerical and Admin (392) and Managers (314), a broader white-collar and trade mix than the high-finance suburbs. Unemployment is low at 4.5% and the full-time employment rate is 63.6%, while participation reads 59.7%, held down because 1,375 residents are not in the labour force, consistent with the aging profile. SEIFA places the area mid-to-upper: IER for economic resources scores decile 8 and IRSD and IRSAD both sit at decile 7, while IEO for education and occupation is lower at decile 6, reflecting the trade-heavy workforce against a comfortable income base.

Unemployment

6.0%

Labour Force

3,017

Unemployed

182

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
7
Disadvantage
7
Economic resources
8
Education & occupation
6

Full-time

63.6%

Part-time

31.9%

Participation

59.7%

Employed

2,472

Occupations

Professionals 596
Clerical/Admin 392
Managers 314
Community/Personal 289
Sales 241
Labourers 198
Machinery/Drivers 147

Top Industries

Healthcare 16.9%
Construction 13.6%
Education 12.1%
Manufacturing 10.8%
Professional/Tech 7.7%

University

32.4%

Postgraduate

7.7%

Born Overseas

26.1%

Dwellings

1,983

Transport to Work

This is a car-dependent suburb: 92.0% of residents drive to work while just 1.7% use public transport and 1.1% walk or cycle, well below the patterns of transit-rich inner suburbs and a function of its outer-bayside position. The crime rate is 56.9 offences per 1,000 residents, with 307 incidents recorded, of which property and deception offences (172) form the largest share and crimes against the person account for 59. SEIFA scores of decile 7 on both IRSD and IRSAD indicate relatively low disadvantage, in the upper third nationally. Only 5.4% of residents (278 people) need daily assistance despite the aging trend, and rent-to-income at 22.1% keeps tenants comfortable. No schools are recorded inside the 3.2 km2 boundary in this dataset, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring Chelsea and Bonbeach.

Drive

92.0%

Public Transport

1.7%

Walk / Cycle

1.1%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

0.0%/yr

Established

Population growth is effectively flat: the annual rate is 0.0% and the 10-year change is just 4.1%, classifying this as an established, slow-growth suburb. The current population of around 5,431 has not recovered to the pre-COVID level of 5,586, sitting only 0.1% above the COVID low of 5,426 after a 2.9% dip. Medium forecasts hold the population near 5,451 through 2031, so almost no expansion is expected. Overseas migration of about 36 a year is the only positive driver, offset by net internal outflow of roughly 60. The composition is shifting older, with the senior share up 8.3 points and the working-age share down 5.5 points over the decade. Affordability worsened from 41.4% in 2011 to 51.2% in 2021, a deterioration that aligns with the doubling of house prices while incomes grew a more modest 8.0% in real terms.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+36

Net Internal / yr

-60

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

307

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

56.9

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
172
Crimes against the person
59
Justice procedures offences
46
Public order and security offences
17

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Chelsea Heights compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 10%
Household Income
Top 33%
Rent Level
Top 14%
Apartments
Top 35%
Renters
Bottom 27%
Uni Educated
Top 30%
Public Transport
Bottom 29%
Born Overseas
Top 18%
Density
Top 10%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Chelsea Heights a good suburb to live in?

Chelsea Heights scores decile 7 on both IRSD and IRSAD, in the upper third nationally for low disadvantage, with household income in the 67.4th percentile. It is family-oriented, with 79.0% detached houses and three-bedroom homes at 51.0%. The main trade-off is heavy car reliance, since 92.0% of residents drive to work.

What is the median house price in Chelsea Heights?

The median house price is $950,000 as of mid-2024, which is 2.8% below the 2021 peak of $977,500. Prices have risen 104.3% from $465,000 in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. Weekly rent averages $412 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $2,001.

What schools are in Chelsea Heights?

No schools are recorded inside the 3.2 km2 Chelsea Heights boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs such as Chelsea and Bonbeach. The local population is reasonably educated, with university qualifications at 32.4%, which is 2.3 points above the national figure.

Is Chelsea Heights safe?

The crime rate is 56.9 offences per 1,000 residents, with 307 incidents recorded. The largest category is property and deception offences at 172, while crimes against the person account for 59. The suburb scores decile 7 on the IRSD index of relative disadvantage, in the upper third nationally.

Is Chelsea Heights good for property investment?

Rent of $412 a week against a $950,000 median gives a gross yield near 2.3%, low and typical of detached markets. Renters are only 13.2% of households and vacancy sits at 3.9%. Rents grew 64.1% over the period, so returns lean on rent escalation rather than yield, with population growth flat at 0.0%.

How is Chelsea Heights's population changing?

Population growth is 0.0% annually with a 4.1% rise over 10 years. The current 5,431 residents remain below the pre-COVID 5,586 after a 2.9% dip. The profile is aging, with the senior share up 8.3 points and the working-age share down 5.5 points over the decade, driven mainly by overseas migration of about 36 a year.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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