VIC 3842 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Churchill

A $355,000 median house price sits in this Latrobe Valley town alongside a 128.4 per 1,000 crime rate, and the affordability is the reason the two coexist. Household income falls in the 17.9th percentile nationally, which is why prices have only reached $355,000 despite 95.1% growth since 2013. The stock is overwhelmingly detached, with 96.7% separate houses and just 2.5% apartments across a 21.45 km2 footprint at only 229.5 residents per km2. University qualifications reach 17.8%, which is 12.3 points below the national figure, reflecting a working-population base anchored by Healthcare and Education jobs near the local Federation University campus.

Churchill urban fabric map

Population

4,924

Median Age

38.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,109/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

13

Median House

$355K

Apr-Jun 2024

21.45 km²· 229.5 people/km²· Family income $1,347/wk

The $355,000 median makes Churchill one of Victoria's more accessible markets, and entry costs stay low because the median sits below the peak of $360,000 reached in 2022, a 1.4% slip rather than a boom. Three-bedroom homes dominate the supply at 71.6%, with 4-plus bedroom houses at 23.1%, so buyers find space rather than density: 96.7% of dwellings are separate houses. Monthly mortgage repayments average just $997, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.8%, well below the 30% stress threshold even though household income ranks in the 17.9th percentile. Outright owners at 38.7% outnumber mortgage holders at 31.1%, a sign that much of the stock is held by established, debt-free residents rather than recent buyers stretching to enter.

For Buyers

The $355,000 median makes Churchill one of Victoria's more accessible markets, and entry costs stay low because the median sits below the peak of $360,000 reached in 2022, a 1.4% slip rather than a boom. Three-bedroom homes dominate the supply at 71.6%, with 4-plus bedroom houses at 23.1%, so buyers find space rather than density: 96.7% of dwellings are separate houses. Monthly mortgage repayments average just $997, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.8%, well below the 30% stress threshold even though household income ranks in the 17.9th percentile. Outright owners at 38.7% outnumber mortgage holders at 31.1%, a sign that much of the stock is held by established, debt-free residents rather than recent buyers stretching to enter.

For Investors

A 30.2% renter share and weekly rent of $230 give landlords a tenant pool, and the low entry price drives the case: against the $355,000 median, that rent implies a gross yield near 3.4%, far stronger than the 1% to 2% typical of premium city suburbs. Rent has climbed 43.8% over the period, outpacing flat capital values. The caution is the 7.8% vacancy rate, higher than a tight market would show, plus thin demand support: net overseas migration adds only 46 residents a year and internal migration is roughly balanced at 1. Development is quiet at 12 applications in 12 months, mostly single-dwelling permits and a small subdivision, so the investment case rests on yield and rent escalation rather than capital growth or new supply.

Development Activity

Total DAs

18

Last 12 Months

13

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+1200.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Subdivision
7
Other
3
Change of Use
2
Commercial / Industrial
1
Tree Removal
1

Schools in Churchill iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Lumen Christi School

ICSEA 986 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 87 students

Churchill Primary School

ICSEA 965 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 212 students

Churchill North Primary School

ICSEA 908 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 118 students

Demographics

The median age of 38 is 2.0 years below the national figure, yet the trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 7.9 points and the working-age share down 1.9 points over the decade. Overseas-born residents reach 13.3%, which is 8.3 points below national, and ancestry leans Anglo, led by English (1,905), Scottish (520) and Irish (486). The top non-English languages are Italian (17 speakers) and Mandarin (12), a small international mix. University qualifications at 17.8% run 12.3 points below national, consistent with a labour base in service and trade roles. Average household size is 2.3, which is 0.2 below national, and couples with children (1,216) edge out couples with no children (1,106) across 3,655 families.

Age Distribution

0-14
18.9%
15-24
13.0%
25-44
24.3%
45-64
24.3%
65+
19.5%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
1.4%
2 bed
3.9%
3 bed
71.6%
4+ bed
23.1%

Dwelling Structure

96.7%

Houses

0.8%

Townhouse

2.5%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 38.7% Mortgage 31.1% Rent 30.2%

Tenure splits across three groups: 38.7% own outright, 31.1% carry a mortgage and 30.2% rent. Outright owners outnumbering mortgage holders points to long-held, debt-free ownership rather than a churn of new buyers. The stock is 96.7% separate houses, with apartments at just 2.5% and semi-detached at 0.8%, so the market is almost entirely detached family homes. Three-bedroom dwellings account for 71.6% and 4-plus bedroom 23.1%, leaving little small-format supply. The median house price rose from $182,000 in 2013 to $355,000, a 95.1% gain, but at a modest 4.9% compound annual rate. Mortgage-to-income at 20.8% and rent-to-income at 20.7% both stay comfortably below the 30% stress line, a direct result of the low $355,000 median relative even to 17.9th-percentile incomes.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$997

Rent / wk

$230

HH Size

2.3

Personal Income / wk

$577

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

7.8%

Unoccupied

162

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.7%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.8%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Italian
17
Mandarin
12

Ancestry

English
1,905
Scottish
520
Irish
486
Ancestry NS
437
Other
264
Dutch
214

Household Composition

30.3%

Couples, no children

3,655

Total families

Economy & Employment

The workforce concentrates in service sectors: Healthcare leads at 22.4% (256 workers), Education follows at 13.5% (154) and Construction at 10.7% (122), with Retail and Public Admin each at 8.1%. By occupation, Community and Personal Service workers (271) and Professionals (262) lead, with Labourers close behind at 244, a mix that aligns with the area's health, education and trade base. Unemployment is elevated at 8.9% and the full-time rate is 57.7%, while participation reads 45.9%, held down because 1,691 residents are not in the labour force. SEIFA places the suburb at decile 3 on IRSAD and decile 4 on IRSD, both below the midpoint nationally, though IER reaches decile 5 because high outright ownership and low housing costs lift the economic-resources measure above the education and occupation scores.

Unemployment

4.7%

Labour Force

6,187

Unemployed

288

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
3
Disadvantage
4
Economic resources
5
Education & occupation
3

Full-time

57.7%

Part-time

33.4%

Participation

45.9%

Employed

1,671

Occupations

Community/Personal 271
Professionals 262
Labourers 244
Clerical/Admin 218
Sales 201
Managers 178
Machinery/Drivers 146

Top Industries

Healthcare 22.4%
Education 13.5%
Construction 10.7%
Retail 8.1%
Public Admin 8.1%

University

17.8%

Postgraduate

3.9%

Born Overseas

13.3%

Dwellings

1,925

Transport to Work

Car dependence is near total, with 93.0% driving to work and only 1.0% using public transport, a profile typical of a low-density town at 229.5 residents per km2 spread across 21.45 km2. The crime rate of 128.4 per 1,000 is high, driven mainly by property and deception offences (258 of 632 incidents), with justice procedures (176) and crimes against the person (155) following. SEIFA scores of decile 3 on IRSAD and decile 4 on IRSD sit below the national midpoint, consistent with the elevated crime figure. No schools are recorded inside the boundary in this dataset, though the suburb hosts a Federation University campus, and 9.2% of residents (414 people) need daily assistance, above what the median age of 38 alone would suggest.

Drive

93.0%

Public Transport

1.0%

Walk / Cycle

1.0%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+0.42%/yr

(+52 people/yr)

Established

Churchill is effectively flat, with annual population growth of 0.42% and a 4.6% change over 10 years, classifying it as an established, slow-growth area. The gentrification stage reads early signs with a score of 25, modest rather than transformative. Migration is balanced overall: net overseas migration of 46 a year is the only meaningful positive driver, while internal movement nets close to zero at 1. Rent growth of 43.8% over the period outpaced capital values, which slipped 1.4% below the 2022 peak of $360,000. Affordability has held stable, moving only from 34.1% in 2011 to 34.4% in 2021, and real incomes grew 15.8% over the decade, so the suburb expands slowly without the pressure of a fast-gentrifying market.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Balanced

Net Overseas / yr

+46

Net Internal / yr

+1

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

632

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

128.4

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
258
Justice procedures offences
176
Crimes against the person
155
Public order and security offences
22

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Churchill compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 11%
Household Income
Bottom 18%
Rent Level
Bottom 40%
Apartments
Bottom 40%
Renters
Top 28%
Uni Educated
Bottom 29%
Public Transport
Bottom 15%
Born Overseas
Bottom 46%
Density
Top 23%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Churchill a good suburb to live in?

Churchill suits affordability-focused buyers, with a $355,000 median house price and mortgage costs at 20.8% of income, below the 30% stress line. The trade-offs are a high crime rate of 128.4 per 1,000 and SEIFA decile 3 on IRSAD, below the national midpoint. It is car-dependent, with 93.0% driving to work.

What is the median house price in Churchill?

The median house price is $355,000 as of the Apr-Jun 2024 quarter, up 95.1% from $182,000 in 2013 but 1.4% below the 2022 peak of $360,000. Weekly rent averages $230 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $997, keeping the mortgage-to-income ratio at 20.8%.

What schools are in Churchill?

No primary or secondary schools are recorded inside the Churchill boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The suburb does host a Federation University campus, and Education employs 13.5% of the local workforce, or 154 workers, one of the largest sectors.

Is Churchill safe?

Churchill records a crime rate of 128.4 per 1,000 residents, with 632 incidents in total, which is high. Most are property and deception offences at 258, followed by justice procedures at 176 and crimes against the person at 155. SEIFA decile 4 on IRSD sits below the national midpoint.

Is Churchill good for property investment?

Rent of $230 a week against a $355,000 median gives a gross yield near 3.4%, stronger than the 1% to 2% of premium suburbs. Rent rose 43.8% over the period. The caution is a 7.8% vacancy rate and thin demand, with net overseas migration of just 46 a year and flat capital values.

How is Churchill's population changing?

Population growth is 0.42% annually with a 4.6% rise over 10 years, making it slow-growth. The profile is aging, with the senior share up 7.9 points and the working-age share down 1.9 points over the decade. Net overseas migration of 46 a year is the main growth driver.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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