VIC 3977 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Cranbourne South

Population exploded 159% over the past decade, making Cranbourne South one of outer Melbourne's fastest-expanding suburbs. Yet growth came without densification: 99.7% of dwellings are separate houses, the lowest apartment share you will find in any suburb of comparable size. Household incomes sit in the 87.5th income percentile nationally, above the VIC median, while the IRSD decile of 8 signals low relative disadvantage. The median age of 35 is five years below the national figure, pointing to young families driving the influx rather than retirees. At 3,241 residents across 20 square kilometres, density remains thin at 162 per square kilometre.

Cranbourne South urban fabric map

Population

3,241

Median Age

35.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$2,278/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

4

Median House

$828K

Apr-Jun 2024

20.0 km²· 162.1 people/km²· Family income $2,361/wk

The median house price reached $828,500 in the April to June 2024 quarter, up sharply from $670,000 recorded in late 2023. Since 2014, prices have climbed 82.1% from $455,000, a CAGR of 4.7% per year across 13 years. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, representing 22.0% of household income, below the 30% stress threshold, so buyers here are not stretched compared to many Melbourne suburbs. Stock is overwhelmingly detached: 99.7% separate houses with 66.2% having four or more bedrooms, which reflects the suburb's family-oriented character. With only 10.8% renting, competition among owner-occupiers is high and supply of listings can be thin.

For Buyers

The median house price reached $828,500 in the April to June 2024 quarter, up sharply from $670,000 recorded in late 2023. Since 2014, prices have climbed 82.1% from $455,000, a CAGR of 4.7% per year across 13 years. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, representing 22.0% of household income, below the 30% stress threshold, so buyers here are not stretched compared to many Melbourne suburbs. Stock is overwhelmingly detached: 99.7% separate houses with 66.2% having four or more bedrooms, which reflects the suburb's family-oriented character. With only 10.8% renting, competition among owner-occupiers is high and supply of listings can be thin.

For Investors

Rental demand is limited because only 10.8% of dwellings are rented, well below the national average. Weekly rent of $470 against an $828,500 median implies a gross yield around 2.95%, modest but not unusual for a mortgage-belt outer suburb. The vacancy rate of 3.2% is slightly elevated, suggesting tenants have some choice. The growth picture is stronger: internal migration averaged 1,920 net arrivals per year and the medium forecast puts population at 31,536 by 2031, up from around 27,368 in 2025. That ongoing demand, combined with a price CAGR of 4.7% over 13 years, makes the suburb more attractive for capital growth than rental yield. Development activity is low at 4 applications in 12 months, limiting new supply pressure.

Development Activity

Total DAs

8

Last 12 Months

4

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+100.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
3
Commercial
1
New Dwelling
1
Subdivision
1

Schools in Cranbourne South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Cranbourne South Primary School

ICSEA 1010 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 376 students

Demographics

The median age of 35 is 5 years below the national figure, consistent with a suburb drawing young families through internal migration from elsewhere in Melbourne. The overseas-born share of 24.3% sits 2.7 percentage points above the national average, with Punjabi, Malayalam, and Sinhala among the top non-English languages. Ancestry is Anglo-Celtic leaning, with English (1,143), Scottish (284) and Irish (215) the most common backgrounds. University qualifications at 29.1% are about 1 percentage point below the national figure, broadly middle Australia in educational attainment. Average household size of 2.9 is 0.4 above the national average, reflecting the high proportion of couples with children, who make up 1,275 of 2,828 total families.

Age Distribution

0-14
20.0%
15-24
11.1%
25-44
32.6%
45-64
23.0%
65+
12.9%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
0.9%
2 bed
3.1%
3 bed
29.8%
4+ bed
66.2%

Dwelling Structure

99.7%

Houses

N/A

Townhouse

0.3%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 26.3% Mortgage 62.9% Rent 10.8%

Tenure sits firmly in the mortgage belt: 62.9% of households are paying off a mortgage and only 26.3% own outright, compared to a national outright ownership share that is typically higher in older established suburbs. Just 10.8% rent. Separate houses account for 99.7% of the stock, making apartments effectively absent. Four-or-more bedroom homes dominate at 66.2%, twice the share of three-bedroom homes at 29.8%, because blocks are large enough to accommodate bigger footprints. Price history spans 14 quarters, from a trough of $425,000 in 2018 to the current $828,500 peak, a 95% rise from trough to peak. Mortgage-to-income at 22.0% and rent-to-income at 20.6% mean neither owners nor renters face stress by standard benchmarks.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,167

Rent / wk

$470

HH Size

2.9

Personal Income / wk

$979

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

3.2%

Unoccupied

35

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.6%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.0%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Punjabi
44
Malayalam
28
Sinhal
20
Hindi
19

Ancestry

English
1,143
Other
452
Scottish
284
Irish
215
Ancestry NS
171
Italian
147

Household Composition

25.3%

Couples, no children

2,828

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare leads local employment at 19.6% (235 workers), followed by Construction at 17.5% (210) and Education at 11.0% (132). The combination of Healthcare and Construction as the top two industries reflects both the suburb's family demographic and the ongoing land development in the corridor. Unemployment is low at 3.0%, with a full-time employment rate of 67.9% and a participation rate of 66.1%. By occupation, Professionals (341) and Managers (219) are the top groups, consistent with the IRSAD decile 7 score, above average nationally. The IER (economic resources) decile of 10 is the highest possible tier, indicating strong household asset and income position relative to other Australian suburbs.

Unemployment

8.9%

Labour Force

12,473

Unemployed

1,109

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
7
Disadvantage
8
Economic resources
10
Education & occupation
5

Full-time

67.9%

Part-time

29.1%

Participation

66.1%

Employed

1,659

Occupations

Professionals 341
Clerical/Admin 235
Managers 219
Community/Personal 199
Labourers 177
Sales 149
Machinery/Drivers 126

Top Industries

Healthcare 19.6%
Construction 17.5%
Education 11.0%
Manufacturing 9.4%
Retail 6.5%

University

29.1%

Postgraduate

5.8%

Born Overseas

24.3%

Dwellings

1,049

Transport to Work

Car dependence is extreme: 93.5% of residents drive to work, compared to state and national averages well below that level, and only 1.1% use public transport. This reflects the suburb's low density across 20 square kilometres with limited rail or bus access. The IRSAD decile of 7 places Cranbourne South above the national average on the combined measure of advantage and disadvantage. Crime sits at 57.1 incidents per 1,000 residents, with property and deception offences (129 incidents) accounting for the bulk of the 185 total recorded incidents. No schools are captured in the dataset for this suburb boundary, so families depend on education infrastructure in neighbouring Cranbourne suburbs. Volunteering runs at 10.3% and only 4.2% of residents need daily assistance, both consistent with a young, working-age population.

Drive

93.5%

Public Transport

1.1%

Walk / Cycle

0.6%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+4.67%/yr

(+1,277 people/yr)

High Growth

The 10-year population change of 159.1% ranks Cranbourne South among the most rapidly growing suburbs in Victoria. Growth is driven almost entirely by internal migration, averaging 1,920 net arrivals per year, with overseas migration adding 110. The medium forecast projects population rising from around 27,368 in 2025 to 31,536 by 2031, a further 15% expansion. Real incomes grew 27.6% over the decade and rent grew 40.7%, suggesting the area is not just adding households but adding higher-earning ones. The gentrification stage is classified as New Development rather than gentrifying, because the suburb is expanding outward rather than transforming an existing character. Affordability improved from 47.8% in 2011 to 42.8% in 2021, a positive trend for buyers.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Internal Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+110

Net Internal / yr

+1,920

0

Gentrification Signal

New development

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

185

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

57.1

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
129
Crimes against the person
28
Justice procedures offences
20
Public order and security offences
6

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Cranbourne South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 16%
Household Income
Top 12%
Rent Level
Top 7%
Apartments
Bottom 4%
Renters
Bottom 19%
Uni Educated
Top 36%
Public Transport
Bottom 17%
Born Overseas
Top 21%
Density
Top 24%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Cranbourne South a good suburb to live in?

Cranbourne South suits families who prioritise space and affordability over urban convenience. Household incomes rank in the 87.5th percentile nationally, mortgage stress is low at 22.0% of income, and 99.7% of homes are separate houses with 66.2% having four or more bedrooms. The trade-off is near-total car dependence, with 93.5% driving to work and only 1.1% using public transport.

What is the median house price in Cranbourne South?

The median house price is $828,500, recorded in the April to June 2024 quarter. This is up from $670,000 in late 2023 and has grown 82.1% from $455,000 since 2014. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, representing a 22.0% mortgage-to-income ratio, below the standard 30% stress threshold.

What schools are in Cranbourne South?

No schools are recorded within the Cranbourne South suburb boundary in this dataset. With a population of 3,241 and a median age of 35, the suburb is family-oriented, so residents rely on schools in neighbouring Cranbourne areas. University qualifications are held by 29.1% of the population, close to the national average.

Is Cranbourne South safe?

Cranbourne South recorded 185 total crimes in the reference period, giving a rate of 57.1 per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences accounted for 129 of those incidents, with crimes against the person at 28. The IRSD decile of 8 places the suburb in the lower-disadvantage tier nationally, which is generally associated with better safety outcomes.

Is Cranbourne South good for property investment?

The suburb offers moderate capital growth potential, with a 4.7% annual price CAGR over 13 years and a 159.1% population increase over the past decade. However, the gross rental yield is around 2.95% based on $470 weekly rent against an $828,500 median, and only 10.8% of dwellings are rented, limiting tenant demand. Internal migration of 1,920 net arrivals per year supports ongoing price pressure.

How is Cranbourne South's population changing?

Population grew 159.1% over the past decade, from a small base to around 27,368 by 2025. The medium forecast projects 31,536 residents by 2031. Internal migration is the primary driver at 1,920 net arrivals per year, with the suburb classified as Rejuvenating, meaning the young share grew 5.2 points and the senior share fell 4.7 points over the period.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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