Ferntree Gully
The unusual signal in Ferntree Gully is uniformity, not extremity. All four SEIFA indices cluster in deciles 5 and 6 (IRSD 6, IRSAD 5, IEO 6, IER 5), a flat profile that contrasts sharply with Bentleigh East's decile 9 sweep or Croydon's IEO 9 outlier. The 27,398 residents sit at the 62.3rd percentile nationally for household income ($1,770/week), with 88.0% in detached houses backing onto the Dandenong Ranges National Park. The median house price of $870,000 (Apr-Jun 2024) trails Rowville's $1,054,100 by 17.5% despite sitting one suburb to the north, a gap that reflects older 1970s-80s stock and smaller postwar lots rather than any locational deficit. Forecast growth of 0.32% annually (47 persons/year) is one-twentieth of Clyde North's 6.32% engine, and the senior age share has risen 4.0pp over the decade against a 2.0pp working-age decline.
Population
27,398
Median Age
40.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,770/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
78
Median House
$870K
Apr-Jun 2024
Ferntree Gully is the entry rung of the outer-east mortgage belt, priced 17.5% below Rowville ($1,054,100) and roughly 42% below Mount Waverley despite drawing on the same Belgrave-line rail spine. The $870,000 median sits 7.1% below the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $936,000, giving buyers a softer entry than peak chasers in Rowville faced. Stock leans family-grade: 88.0% separate houses, only 1.9% apartments, with 50.7% three-bedroom and 32.5% four-plus dwellings. Mortgage-to-income at 25.0% sits comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, materially lighter than Croydon's 28.4%, supported by a $1,918 monthly mortgage that 62.3rd-percentile household income absorbs without strain. Tenure depth runs 34.5% outright and 43.7% mortgaged, leaving 21.7% renting, a higher owner-occupier concentration than Bentleigh East's 75.5%.
For Buyers
Ferntree Gully is the entry rung of the outer-east mortgage belt, priced 17.5% below Rowville ($1,054,100) and roughly 42% below Mount Waverley despite drawing on the same Belgrave-line rail spine. The $870,000 median sits 7.1% below the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $936,000, giving buyers a softer entry than peak chasers in Rowville faced. Stock leans family-grade: 88.0% separate houses, only 1.9% apartments, with 50.7% three-bedroom and 32.5% four-plus dwellings. Mortgage-to-income at 25.0% sits comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, materially lighter than Croydon's 28.4%, supported by a $1,918 monthly mortgage that 62.3rd-percentile household income absorbs without strain. Tenure depth runs 34.5% outright and 43.7% mortgaged, leaving 21.7% renting, a higher owner-occupier concentration than Bentleigh East's 75.5%.
For Investors
Yields beat the bluechip east on the maths but with caveats. Median rent of $386/week against $870,000 implies a gross yield near 2.31%, materially better than Rowville's 2.2% and Bentleigh East's 1.7%, while still below greenfield corridors. The 4.4% vacancy rate sits above the 3-4% tightness sweet spot, signalling supply slack rather than the scarcity pricing power some inner-east markets enjoy. Renters are only 21.7% of households, a thinner pool than Croydon's 27.4%, and 25 development permits were lodged in the past 12 months (mostly two-and-three-lot subdivisions per VC221), one-third of Bentleigh East's 80-permit pace. Migration mix is the soft spot: net internal migration runs -70/year while overseas adds +99/year, a slow churn that sustains tenant pools but caps appreciation. The 4.8% CAGR over 14 years lags Bentleigh East's 5.1% and Rowville's 4.5%.
Development Activity
Total DAs
110
Last 12 Months
78
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+875.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Ferntree Gully iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
St John the Baptist School
Prep-6 · 221 students
Mountain Gate Primary School
Prep-6 · 432 students
Heritage College Knox
Prep-12 · 183 students
Ferntree Gully North Primary School
Prep-6 · 289 students
St Joseph's College
7-12 · 991 students
Demographics
Ferntree Gully reads outer-east Anglo-Celtic mortgage belt with a thin Asian overlay, not the migrant-receiving profile Doncaster East or Glen Waverley have become. English ancestry leads at 9,774 residents (35.7% of population), followed by Irish (2,715), Scottish (2,512) and Chinese (2,031, 7.4% share). That Chinese share is one-fifth of Doncaster East's 38% and one-third of Mount Waverley's, with Mandarin (479), Cantonese (192) and Sinhalese (172) the leading non-English languages. Born-overseas rate of 26.1% sits 4.5 percentage points above the national share but lags Rowville's 35.8% by nearly ten points. University attainment of 34.1% runs 4.0pp above the national 30.1% but well below Bentleigh East's 52.0%, the same education-modest pattern reflected in IEO decile 6 versus Bentleigh East's decile 9. Median age 40 is on par with national, and 24.0% are couples without children, the empty-nester signal consistent with the aging trajectory.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
88.0%
Houses
9.8%
Townhouse
1.9%
Apartment
Tenure
The price arc tells a stable, mature story rather than a boom narrative. From $451,000 in 2013 to a peak of $936,000 in Jul-Sep 2023 then $870,000 in Apr-Jun 2024, Ferntree Gully delivered 92.9% appreciation across 14 years (4.8% CAGR), with the 7.1% post-peak retracement deeper than Bentleigh East's 1.9% but shallower than Mount Waverley's 8.8%. Tenure structure is owner-dominant: 34.5% own outright (above the 31% national mean) and 43.7% carry a mortgage, leaving only 21.7% renting, a tighter renter share than Croydon's 27.4%. Bedroom mix skews three-bed (50.7%) with healthy four-plus (32.5%) and 14.7% two-bed dwellings, reflecting the 1970s-80s estate stock that defines the postcode. Against $92k household income ($1,770/week), the price-to-income multiple is 9.5x, above the 7-8x national benchmark but well under Bentleigh East's 13.1x or Mount Waverley's 18x.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,918
Rent / wk
$386
HH Size
2.6
Personal Income / wk
$791
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.4%
Unoccupied
473
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.8%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
25.0%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
24.0%
Couples, no children
22,587
Total families
Economy & Employment
The local labour profile tilts service-sector with a heavier blue-collar undercurrent than the wealthier east. Healthcare leads at 17.9% of workers (1,681 jobs, well above the 13% national share), followed by Construction at 12.3% (1,160 jobs, distinctly above metro norms), Education 11.1%, Professional/Tech 9.0%, and Manufacturing 8.8%. Occupations show Professionals at 2,952 (22.5% of the employed pool of 13,117), Clerical/Admin at 2,001 and Managers at 1,663, a thinner Professionals share than Bentleigh East's 32.6% or Doncaster East's heavier white-collar lean. Full-time employment runs 63.7% with unemployment at 4.8%, modestly above the 4.3% national benchmark. The SEIFA story is its flatness: IEO decile 6 (999), IER decile 5 (1,000), IRSD decile 6 (1,014) and IRSAD decile 5 (994), all hovering near the 1,000 mid-point rather than the decile-9 splits seen across the inner-east.
Unemployment
5.9%
Labour Force
8,002
Unemployed
472
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.7%
Part-time
31.5%
Participation
61.0%
Employed
13,117
Occupations
Top Industries
University
34.1%
Postgraduate
8.3%
Born Overseas
26.1%
Dwellings
10,275
Transport to Work
Schools cluster around the national mean rather than topping it. St John the Baptist Catholic Primary leads at ICSEA 1,075 (221 students), with Mountain Gate Primary at 1,072 (432 students), Heritage College Knox at 1,059 and Ferntree Gully North Primary at 1,055. St Joseph's College anchors the secondary intake at ICSEA 1,052 with 991 enrolments, while Wattle View, Fairhills and Kent Park sit just above the 1,000 mean, well below Bentleigh East's 1,082-1,156 ICSEA range or Doncaster East's 1,133-plus tier. Transport is overwhelmingly car-dependent: 89.8% drive (above metro average), only 2.9% use public transport despite the Belgrave-line spine, and 1.7% walk or cycle. Crime runs 63.4 incidents per 1,000 residents (1,738 total), 7.3% above Croydon's 59.1 and 20.5% above Rowville's 52.6, with property and deception offences dominating at 950 cases (54.7% of total). Ferntree Gully National Park forms the eastern boundary, the genuine lifestyle asset that no other established outer-east suburb can match.
Drive
89.8%
Public Transport
2.9%
Walk / Cycle
1.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.32%/yr
(+47 people/yr)
EstablishedFerntree Gully is a textbook slow-growth, aging-trajectory outer-east suburb. The trend forecast of 0.32% annual growth (+47 persons/year) is one-quarter of Bentleigh East's 1.33% and one-twentieth of Clyde North's 6.32% greenfield engine, though it edges Rowville's near-flat 0.03%. The medium population projection moves from 14,604 (2026) to 14,839 (2031), a 1.6% rise across six years. Migration mechanics tell the why: net internal migration runs -70/year as incumbents leave for Yarra Valley fringe or interstate, while overseas migration adds +99/year, a slow churn rather than a wholesale substitution. Gentrification score of 28 (Early signs stage) sits below Bentleigh East's score of 45 (Active) and well above Rowville's 6 (Not gentrifying). Real income grew 9.4% over the decade and senior share rose 4.0pp while working-age fell 2.0pp, confirming the aging-trajectory tag rather than a youth or migrant influx.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+99
Net Internal / yr
-70
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
1,738
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
63.4
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Ferntree Gully compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ferntree Gully a good suburb to live in?
For established families seeking outer-east access without Rowville pricing, yes. The $870,000 median is 17.5% below Rowville and 42% below Mount Waverley, mortgage-to-income at 25.0% sits well under the 30% stress line, and the Dandenong Ranges National Park forms the eastern boundary. The trade-offs: 89.8% car-dependence, schools clustering around ICSEA 1,000-1,075 rather than the 1,100-plus tier, and crime of 63.4 per 1,000 sitting above Rowville's 52.6 and Croydon's 59.1.
What is the median house price in Ferntree Gully?
The median house price is $870,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), down 7.1% from the Jul-Sep 2023 peak of $936,000. Prices rose 92.9% from $451,000 in 2013, a 4.8% compound annual growth over 14 years, slightly behind Bentleigh East's 5.1% but ahead of Rowville's 4.5%. Median rent of $386/week implies a gross yield near 2.31%, materially better than Bentleigh East's 1.7%.
What schools are in Ferntree Gully?
Nine schools serve the suburb, mostly above the national 1,000 ICSEA mean. St John the Baptist Catholic Primary tops the cluster at ICSEA 1,075 (221 students), followed by Mountain Gate Primary at 1,072 (432) and Heritage College Knox at 1,059. St Joseph's College handles the secondary intake at ICSEA 1,052 with 991 enrolments. Three government primaries (Wattle View 1,006, Fairhills 1,004, The Avenue School 999) sit just at or below the national mean.
Is Ferntree Gully safe?
Crime sits at 63.4 incidents per 1,000 residents (1,738 total), 7.3% above Croydon's 59.1 per 1,000 and 20.5% above Rowville's 52.6. Property and deception offences dominate at 950 incidents (54.7% of total), with crimes against the person at 257 (14.8%) and drug offences at 200. SEIFA IRSAD decile 5 places the suburb mid-pack nationally for advantage, lower than Croydon's decile 8 or Bentleigh East's decile 9.
Is Ferntree Gully good for property investment?
Mixed. The 2.31% gross yield ($386/week rent on $870,000 median) beats Bentleigh East's 1.7% and matches Rowville's 2.2%, but the 4.4% vacancy rate sits above the 3-4% tightness sweet spot, signalling supply slack. Renters are only 21.7% of households, thinner than Croydon's 27.4%. Internal migration runs -70/year against +99/year overseas, a slow churn rather than appreciation catalyst. CAGR of 4.8% over 14 years suits stable-yield seekers, not capital growth hunters.
How is Ferntree Gully's population changing?
Slowly and aging. Trend forecast adds +47 residents per year via 0.32% annual growth, one-quarter of Bentleigh East's 1.33% and one-twentieth of Clyde North's 6.32%. The medium projection moves from 14,604 (2026) to 14,839 (2031), a 1.6% rise across six years. Net internal migration is -70/year against +99/year overseas. Senior share rose 4.0 percentage points and working-age fell 2.0pp over the decade, confirming the aging trajectory.
What development is happening in Ferntree Gully?
25 planning permits were lodged in the past 12 months, dominated by two-and-three-lot subdivisions under VC221 rather than apartment redevelopment. The pace is roughly one-third of Bentleigh East's 80 permits in the same window, reflecting a more constrained Knox LGA pipeline. With 88.0% of stock still detached on traditional 600-700m2 lots and only 1.9% apartments, the value-add play is small-scale subdivision and townhouse infill rather than density transformation.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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