Karana Downs
A household income at the 87th percentile nationally and a SEIFA IRSD decile of 10 make Karana Downs one of QLD's more advantaged outer-Brisbane communities, yet the median house price sits at approximately $503,000, well below the broader metro median. That gap is the defining tension: strong incomes relative to mortgage costs (mortgage-to-income at just 18.4%), a population of 3,800 spread across 7.5 km2 at 507 people per km2, and 93.7% of dwellings being separate houses. The suburb trends older, with a median age of 41, and 82.9% of residents stayed put over a 5-year window, pointing to a settled, low-turnover community.
Population
3,800
Median Age
41.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,255/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
5
Median House
$503K
Estimated from rent (2025)
The estimated median house price of $503,000 positions Karana Downs as accessible compared to the broader Brisbane market. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,800, and mortgage-to-income at 18.4% is comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, which is one of the more buyer-friendly ratios in the region. Separate houses make up 93.7% of the dwelling stock, and 65.3% of homes have 4 or more bedrooms, reflecting genuine family-sized supply rather than compact infill. Of households, 58.4% carry a mortgage and 29.9% own outright, while just 11.8% rent. That low renter share means less rental competition and stable street-level amenity. With a vacancy rate of 4.3%, buyers face moderate but not extreme scarcity.
For Buyers
The estimated median house price of $503,000 positions Karana Downs as accessible compared to the broader Brisbane market. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,800, and mortgage-to-income at 18.4% is comfortably below the 30% stress threshold, which is one of the more buyer-friendly ratios in the region. Separate houses make up 93.7% of the dwelling stock, and 65.3% of homes have 4 or more bedrooms, reflecting genuine family-sized supply rather than compact infill. Of households, 58.4% carry a mortgage and 29.9% own outright, while just 11.8% rent. That low renter share means less rental competition and stable street-level amenity. With a vacancy rate of 4.3%, buyers face moderate but not extreme scarcity.
For Investors
The investment case for Karana Downs is modest rather than strong. Weekly rent of $400 against a $503,000 median implies a gross yield near 4.1%, reasonable by SEQ standards. The vacancy rate of 4.3% sits above the typical 3% threshold, suggesting demand is not running hot. Only 11.8% of households rent, limiting the tenant pool. Development activity is minimal at 2 applications in the past 12 months, so no supply shock is coming. Population growth is slow at 0.32% annually, adding roughly 20 persons per year. The migration picture shows average annual net overseas migration of 44 offset by internal outflow of 40, leaving thin net growth. Rent growth of 14.3% over the measured period shows the market can move, but the base rental demand remains limited.
Development Activity
Total DAs
15
Last 12 Months
5
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+150.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Karana Downs iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Mount Crosby State School
Prep-6 · 559 students
Demographics
The median age of 41 is 1.0 year above the national figure, and the trajectory is aging: the senior share rose 7.1 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 2.3 points. University qualifications reach 37.1%, which is 7.0 percentage points above the national average, a meaningful gap for an outer suburban location. About 23.0% of residents were born overseas, 1.4 points above national. Ancestry is Anglo-Celtic dominated, with English (1,770), Scottish (525) and Irish (518) as the top three. Average household size of 2.8 is 0.3 above national, consistent with the family-house profile. Volunteering runs at 17.5% of residents, indicating active community participation. Couples with children account for 1,439 families, nearly double the 920 couples without children.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
93.7%
Houses
4.1%
Townhouse
1.7%
Apartment
Tenure
Separate houses account for 93.7% of dwellings, and 65.3% have 4 or more bedrooms, making Karana Downs one of the more family-house-centric suburbs in the state. Semi-detached homes are 4.1% and apartments just 1.7%, so the stock is almost entirely detached. Tenure splits show 29.9% outright owners, 58.4% with a mortgage and 11.8% renting. The rent-to-income ratio of 17.7% and mortgage-to-income of 18.4% both sit below stress levels, a positive sign relative to many comparable outer suburbs where either ratio exceeds 25%. The estimated median house price of $503,000 is based on 2025 rent data. A vacancy rate of 4.3% is slightly elevated compared to a balanced 3% market.
Mortgage / mo
$1,800
Rent / wk
$400
HH Size
2.8
Personal Income / wk
$948
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.3%
Unoccupied
60
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
17.7%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.4%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
26.9%
Couples, no children
3,414
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the largest employer at 18.4% of workers (276 people), followed by Education at 16.1% (242) and Construction at 10.3% (154). Public Administration (9.5%) and Professional/Technical services (9.1%) round out the top five. By occupation, Professionals lead at 542, followed by Managers (297) and Clerical/Admin (297). The full-time employment rate of 64.8% is solid, and unemployment sits at 4.1%, a touch above the national trend but not alarming. Participation is 63.2%, with 874 residents not in the labour force. The SEIFA IEO decile of 8 reflects the concentration of professional and managerial workers relative to national norms. Real income growth of 0.9% over the decade is modest, but household income at the 87th percentile nationally shows the suburb punches above average.
Unemployment
1.1%
Labour Force
3,826
Unemployed
42
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.8%
Part-time
31.1%
Participation
63.2%
Employed
1,849
Occupations
Top Industries
University
37.1%
Postgraduate
9.9%
Born Overseas
23.0%
Dwellings
1,339
Transport to Work
Car dependency is pronounced: 92.5% of residents drive to work, while only 1.6% use public transport and 1.1% walk or cycle. This reflects Karana Downs' location as a lower-density outer suburb where transit options are limited. The suburb scores decile 10 on IRSD (relative disadvantage) and SEIFA IRSAD decile 8, placing it firmly in the top tier for socioeconomic advantage nationally. Only 4.4% of residents (162 people) need daily assistance, low for a suburb with a median age of 41. Housing stress is absent: both rent-to-income at 17.7% and mortgage-to-income at 18.4% are well below stress thresholds. No schools are recorded inside the suburb boundary in this dataset, so families depend on nearby institutions. The combination of large detached housing, low financial stress and a stable long-term resident base defines day-to-day livability here.
Drive
92.5%
Public Transport
1.6%
Walk / Cycle
1.1%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.32%/yr
(+20 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation growth in Karana Downs is slow and steady. The annual rate is 0.32%, adding about 20 persons per year. The 10-year population change was 1.4%, classifying this as an established, slow-growth area. Medium forecasts project the broader SA2 population rising from 6,261 in 2025 to around 6,401 by 2031. The migration balance is essentially flat: average net overseas migration of 44 per year is nearly cancelled by internal outflow of 40. The gentrification score is at the lowest stage, not gentrifying, consistent with a suburb already at decile 10 on IRSD advantage with little displacement pressure. Affordability improved from 45.2% in 2011 to 41.6% in 2021, a positive trend that puts the suburb ahead of many comparable outer Brisbane areas.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+44
Net Internal / yr
-40
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Karana Downs compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Karana Downs a good suburb to live in?
Karana Downs ranks decile 10 on IRSD (relative disadvantage) and decile 8 on IRSAD nationally, placing it in the upper advantage tier. Household income sits at the 87th percentile nationally, mortgage-to-income is a low 18.4%, and 82.9% of residents stayed over 5 years, indicating genuine satisfaction with the area.
What is the median house price in Karana Downs?
The estimated median house price is $503,000 (based on 2025 rent data). Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,800 and weekly rent is around $400. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 18.4% is well below the 30% stress threshold, making it relatively affordable for buyers with steady incomes.
What schools are in Karana Downs?
No schools are recorded inside the Karana Downs boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The local population is well educated, with 37.1% holding university qualifications, which is 7.0 percentage points above the national average.
Is Karana Downs safe?
Crime statistics for Karana Downs are not available in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 10 on IRSD, the top tier for low relative disadvantage nationally. Only 4.4% of its 3,800 residents need daily assistance, consistent with a low-disadvantage, stable community.
Is Karana Downs good for property investment?
Weekly rent of $400 against a $503,000 median implies a gross yield near 4.1%, reasonable by QLD standards. However, vacancy at 4.3% is above the balanced 3% level, the renter share is just 11.8%, and population growth is slow at 0.32% per year. Returns depend more on steady capital growth than yield or volume.
How is Karana Downs's population changing?
Population growth is slow at 0.32% annually, adding about 20 persons per year. The 10-year change was 1.4%. Medium forecasts project the SA2 population reaching around 6,401 by 2031. The suburb has an aging trajectory, with the senior share rising 7.1 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 2.3 points.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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