VIC 3038 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Keilor Downs

Nearly half of Keilor Downs households (49.7%) own their homes outright, one of the highest outright ownership rates in Melbourne's western suburbs, yet the suburb still records a crime rate of 63.1 per 1,000 residents. The SEIFA profile creates a notable split: IRSD decile 3 signals moderate disadvantage, while IER decile 5 suggests middling economic resources. With 43.3% born overseas and Italian (1,042), Vietnamese (763), and Greek (745) ancestries all making significant contributions, the demographic composition is genuinely multicultural rather than dominated by any single migrant group. Population growth has turned negative at 0.22% per year, and the suburb remains 3.9% below its pre-COVID peak.

Keilor Downs urban fabric map

Population

9,857

Median Age

43.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,558/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

1

Median House

$768K

Apr-Jun 2024

5.02 km²· 1,965.3 people/km²· Family income $1,761/wk

The $768,000 median house price reflects a suburb that has grown 90.3% from $403,500 in 2013, though it sits 4.7% below its Oct-Dec 2023 peak of $806,000. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 57.0% of stock, with four-plus bedrooms at 39.0%, and detached houses account for 85.2%. Monthly mortgage repayments of $1,733 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 25.7%, below the stress threshold, partly because so many households (49.7%) own outright and do not carry mortgage costs. Semi-detached at 14.1% offers a more affordable entry point. Public transport use at 3.0% is low even by suburban Melbourne standards, so car access is essential.

For Buyers

The $768,000 median house price reflects a suburb that has grown 90.3% from $403,500 in 2013, though it sits 4.7% below its Oct-Dec 2023 peak of $806,000. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 57.0% of stock, with four-plus bedrooms at 39.0%, and detached houses account for 85.2%. Monthly mortgage repayments of $1,733 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 25.7%, below the stress threshold, partly because so many households (49.7%) own outright and do not carry mortgage costs. Semi-detached at 14.1% offers a more affordable entry point. Public transport use at 3.0% is low even by suburban Melbourne standards, so car access is essential.

For Investors

Renters comprise 18.6% of households, below the national average but sufficient for a suburban rental market. Median weekly rent of $360 against a $768,000 median produces a gross yield around 2.4%, low by national standards and typical for established Melbourne suburbs. The vacancy rate of 4.4% is moderate. Only 2 development applications in 12 months indicate minimal new supply. Overseas migration averages 48 per year while internal migration runs at negative 28, creating a slow population contraction that limits tenant demand growth. The suburb's aging trajectory and below-peak pricing may appeal to patient investors targeting a price floor.

Development Activity

Total DAs

9

Last 12 Months

1

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

-66.7%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
4

Schools in Keilor Downs iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

St Mary MacKillop Primary School

ICSEA 1059 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 502 students

Keilor Views Primary School

ICSEA 1019 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 396 students

Keilor Downs Secondary College

ICSEA 1004 Secondary Government

7-12 · 1223 students

Monmia Primary School

ICSEA 985 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 180 students

Demographics

The multicultural profile is Keilor Downs' most distinctive feature: Italian (1,042), Vietnamese (763), and Greek (745) ancestries join English (1,237) among the top groups, while Greek (266), Macedonian (217), Arabic (171), Italian (146), and Croatian (138) are the leading non-English languages spoken at home. At 43.3% born overseas (21.7 points above the national average), the overseas-born share is substantial. The median age of 43 sits 3 years above national, and the senior share expanded by 6.2 percentage points over the decade, while the working-age share contracted by 4.2 points. The 87.5% residential stability rate is very high, indicating families are staying long-term.

Age Distribution

0-14
15.3%
15-24
11.7%
25-44
24.4%
45-64
26.4%
65+
22.2%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
0.2%
2 bed
3.8%
3 bed
57.0%
4+ bed
39.0%

Dwelling Structure

85.2%

Houses

14.1%

Townhouse

0.5%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 49.7% Mortgage 31.6% Rent 18.6%

The 49.7% outright ownership rate stands well above the national average, reflecting a suburb where many buyers purchased decades ago at much lower prices. Mortgage holders at 31.6% and renters at 18.6% complete the tenure split. Detached houses at 85.2% dominate, with semi-detached at 14.1%. Three-bedroom homes (57.0%) are the prevailing format. The median climbed from $403,500 in 2013 to a peak of $806,000 in Oct-Dec 2023 before pulling back to $768,000, a 4.7% decline from peak. This 14-year CAGR of 4.7% is moderate for Melbourne, reflecting Keilor Downs' position as a mid-priced western suburb rather than a high-growth corridor.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$1,733

Rent / wk

$360

HH Size

2.8

Personal Income / wk

$586

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

4.4%

Unoccupied

157

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

23.1%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

25.7%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Greek
266
Macedon
217
Arabic
171
Italian
146
Croatian
138
Punjabi
87

Ancestry

Other
1,961
English
1,237
Italian
1,042
Vietnamese
763
Greek
745
Maltese
679

Household Composition

25.1%

Couples, no children

8,442

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare leads at 15.4% (401 workers), followed by Education at 11.6% (303) and Construction at 10.9% (284). Transport at 8.3% is notable, reflecting proximity to Melbourne Airport. Professionals (777) and Clerical/Admin (702) top the occupation ranks, with Managers (436), Community/Personal (439), and Sales (408) clustered closely. The 7.3% unemployment rate runs above the national average, and participation at 50.8% is low, with 3,372 residents not in the labour force. This under-participation partly reflects the aging population, as 9.4% (881 people) need assistance with daily tasks. The SEIFA IEO decile 4 indicates below-average education and occupation levels.

Unemployment

1.8%

Labour Force

4,728

Unemployed

84

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
4
Disadvantage
3
Economic resources
5
Education & occupation
4

Full-time

63.5%

Part-time

29.2%

Participation

50.8%

Employed

3,927

Occupations

Professionals 777
Clerical/Admin 702
Community/Personal 439
Managers 436
Sales 408
Labourers 406
Machinery/Drivers 375

Top Industries

Healthcare 15.4%
Education 11.6%
Construction 10.9%
Transport 8.3%
Public Admin 8.0%

University

31.9%

Postgraduate

6.7%

Born Overseas

43.3%

Dwellings

3,388

Transport to Work

Four schools serve the suburb, all scoring near or above the national ICSEA benchmark: St Mary MacKillop Primary (Catholic, 1,059, 502 students), Keilor Views Primary (Government, 1,019, 396 students), Keilor Downs Secondary College (Government, 1,004, 1,223 students), and Monmia Primary (Government, 985, 180 students). Crime at 63.1 per 1,000 residents is above average, with property and deception offences (331) dominating at 53% of all crimes. Public transport use at 3.0% is low, while car driving at 89.6% is among the highest rates in this dataset. The IRSAD decile 4 places Keilor Downs in the lower-middle band of advantage.

Drive

89.6%

Public Transport

3.0%

Walk / Cycle

1.0%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.22%/yr

(-19 people/yr)

Established

The population is contracting at 0.22% per year (negative 19 persons), and the 2025 estimate of 8,732 remains 3.9% below the pre-COVID peak of 8,953. The COVID dip of 4.0% has not fully recovered. Overseas migration of 48/year provides the primary population source, but internal migration at negative 28/year creates a net outflow of established residents. The 10-year change of just 2.8% confirms Keilor Downs is a slow-growth suburb. Gentrification score is 0, and the aging trajectory (senior share up 6.2 points) indicates demographic maturation rather than urban renewal.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+48

Net Internal / yr

-28

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

622

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

63.1

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
331
Justice procedures offences
117
Crimes against the person
90
Public order and security offences
52

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Keilor Downs compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 5%
Household Income
Bottom 50%
Rent Level
Top 24%
Apartments
Bottom 10%
Renters
Bottom 45%
Uni Educated
Top 31%
Public Transport
Bottom 47%
Born Overseas
Top 5%
Density
Top 8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Keilor Downs a good suburb to live in?

Keilor Downs offers affordable established homes at a $768,000 median with a mortgage-to-income ratio of 25.7%, below the stress threshold. The multicultural community (43.3% born overseas) and 4 schools near the ICSEA benchmark are positives. However, the crime rate of 63.1 per 1,000 is above average, and IRSAD decile 4 indicates below-average socioeconomic advantage.

What is the median house price in Keilor Downs?

The median is $768,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), having grown from $403,500 in 2013, a 14-year CAGR of 4.7%. The median has pulled back 4.7% from the Oct-Dec 2023 peak of $806,000. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,733, and median weekly rent is $360. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 25.7% is below the stress benchmark.

What schools are in Keilor Downs?

Four schools operate in Keilor Downs: St Mary MacKillop Primary (Catholic, ICSEA 1,059, 502 students), Keilor Views Primary (Government, 1,019, 396 students), Keilor Downs Secondary College (Government, 1,004, 1,223 students), and Monmia Primary (Government, 985, 180 students). Three of four exceed the national 1,000 ICSEA benchmark.

Is Keilor Downs safe?

The crime rate is 63.1 per 1,000 residents (622 total offences), above the Melbourne average. Property and deception offences (331 incidents, 53%) dominate, followed by justice procedures (117) and crimes against the person (90). The IRSD decile 3 indicates moderate relative disadvantage.

Is Keilor Downs good for property investment?

Gross yield is approximately 2.4% ($360/week on $768,000), low by national standards. The 4.4% vacancy rate is moderate, and only 2 DAs were lodged in 12 months, so supply pressure is minimal. Population is declining at 0.22% per year, which limits tenant demand growth. The 4.7% pullback from peak pricing may represent a buying opportunity for long-term holders.

How is Keilor Downs's population changing?

Population is contracting at 0.22% per year (negative 19 persons). The 2025 estimate of 8,732 remains 3.9% below the pre-COVID peak of 8,953. Overseas migration adds 48/year, but internal outflow of 28/year produces net decline. The senior share grew 6.2 percentage points over the decade, confirming an aging trajectory.

What languages are spoken in Keilor Downs?

Greek (266 speakers), Macedonian (217), Arabic (171), Italian (146), and Croatian (138) are the leading non-English languages. With 43.3% born overseas (21.7 points above the national rate), Keilor Downs is one of Melbourne's genuinely multicultural western suburbs, with no single migrant group dominating.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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