VIC 3038 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Keilor Lodge

Fifty percent of Keilor Lodge households own their home outright, one of the highest rates in metropolitan Melbourne, and that single figure explains much of the suburb's character. With a median house price of $958,800 and household income in the 83.5th percentile nationally, owner-occupiers carry little financial stress: mortgage repayments consume 20.9% of income, below the 30% stress threshold. The suburb covers just 0.86 km2 with 1,668 residents, a density of 1,940 per km2. The dominant ancestry is Italian (366 residents), and the median age of 44 sits 4 years above the national average, consistent with the aging-trajectory signal from the data.

Keilor Lodge urban fabric map

Population

1,668

Median Age

44.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$2,198/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

1

Median House

$959K

Apr-Jun 2024

0.86 km²· 1,940 people/km²· Family income $2,344/wk

The median house price of $958,800 (Apr-Jun 2024 quarter) reflects a 12.8% retreat from the peak of $1,100,000 reached in Jan-Mar 2024, offering buyers a more accessible entry point than earlier in the cycle. Long-run appreciation is solid: prices rose 95.7% from $490,000 in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% over 14 years. Separate houses dominate at 95.9% of dwellings, and 53.0% of homes have 4 or more bedrooms, higher than most Melbourne suburbs, making this a clear family-buyer market. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,993, and at 20.9% of household income, that sits comfortably below the 30% stress threshold compared to mortgage-belt suburbs elsewhere in Melbourne.

For Buyers

The median house price of $958,800 (Apr-Jun 2024 quarter) reflects a 12.8% retreat from the peak of $1,100,000 reached in Jan-Mar 2024, offering buyers a more accessible entry point than earlier in the cycle. Long-run appreciation is solid: prices rose 95.7% from $490,000 in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% over 14 years. Separate houses dominate at 95.9% of dwellings, and 53.0% of homes have 4 or more bedrooms, higher than most Melbourne suburbs, making this a clear family-buyer market. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,993, and at 20.9% of household income, that sits comfortably below the 30% stress threshold compared to mortgage-belt suburbs elsewhere in Melbourne.

For Investors

The rental market in Keilor Lodge is thin by design. Only 13.2% of residents rent, far lower than the Melbourne average, and weekly rent averages $421. Vacancy runs at 4.3%, above the 3% threshold generally viewed as balanced, which gives tenants negotiating power and compresses yield against the $958,800 median. One planning permit was lodged in the past 12 months, indicating very limited new supply. The main demand support is overseas migration, which adds a net 48 residents per year to the broader area while internal migration runs at negative 28. Investors seeking high rental yield will find better options elsewhere; Keilor Lodge suits those prioritising stable capital growth in an established, owner-occupier-dominated market.

Development Activity

Total DAs

2

Last 12 Months

1

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
1

Schools in Keilor Lodge iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Catholic Regional College North Keilor

ICSEA 1045 Secondary Catholic

7-10 · 642 students

Demographics

The median age of 44 is 4.0 years above the national figure, and the senior share of the population rose 6.2 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 4.2 points, confirming a clear aging trajectory. Italian ancestry leads with 366 residents, followed by English (322), Maltese (122) and Greek (111), reflecting the southern European settlement patterns of Melbourne's northwest. Overseas-born residents make up 29.7% of the population, 8.1 percentage points above the national average. University qualifications reach 35.2%, which is 5.1 points above national. Average household size is 2.9, higher than the national figure by 0.4, and 436 couples with children outnumber 352 couples without, pointing to a family-oriented resident base.

Age Distribution

0-14
14.3%
15-24
14.0%
25-44
22.5%
45-64
31.9%
65+
17.6%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
N/A
2 bed
1.1%
3 bed
45.9%
4+ bed
53.0%

Dwelling Structure

95.9%

Houses

4.1%

Townhouse

N/A

Apartment

Tenure

Own 50.0% Mortgage 36.8% Rent 13.2%

Tenure in Keilor Lodge is unusual: 50.0% of residents own their home outright and only 36.8% carry a mortgage, compared to the national pattern where mortgage holders typically dominate. Just 13.2% rent, well below the national average. The stock is almost entirely separate houses at 95.9%, with semi-detached dwellings filling the remaining 4.1% and no apartments recorded. More than half of all homes have 4 or more bedrooms (53.0%), and 45.9% have 3 bedrooms, so 2-bedroom-or-smaller stock is near zero at 1.1%. The price-to-income ratio is moderate given household income in the 83.5th percentile nationally, and the mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.9% is well below stress levels. Prices peaked at $1,100,000 and sit 12.8% below that as of mid-2024.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$1,993

Rent / wk

$421

HH Size

2.9

Personal Income / wk

$771

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

4.3%

Unoccupied

25

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

19.2%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.9%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Italian
55
Croatian
28
Greek
27
Macedon
14
Arabic
13
Serbian
11

Ancestry

Italian
366
English
322
Other
235
Maltese
122
Greek
111
Irish
102

Household Composition

23.3%

Couples, no children

1,510

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare (15.0% of employed residents, 85 workers) and Education (14.5%, 82 workers) are the two largest industries, together accounting for nearly 30% of local employment, higher than the Melbourne suburban average for service-sector concentration. Construction follows at 13.3% (75 workers), consistent with the northwest growth corridor, and Professional/Tech at 10.1% (57 workers) and Manufacturing at 8.3% (47 workers) round out the top five. Professionals are the largest occupation group (194), ahead of Clerical/Admin (141) and Managers (118). The unemployment rate is 4.9% and participation is 62.5%, moderate for a suburb with a median age of 44. Keilor Lodge scores decile 8 on IRSD and IER, placing it above most Melbourne suburbs on both disadvantage and economic resources measures.

Unemployment

1.8%

Labour Force

4,728

Unemployed

84

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
7
Disadvantage
8
Economic resources
8
Education & occupation
6

Full-time

61.4%

Part-time

33.7%

Participation

62.5%

Employed

852

Occupations

Professionals 194
Clerical/Admin 141
Managers 118
Community/Personal 106
Sales 94
Labourers 62
Machinery/Drivers 53

Top Industries

Healthcare 15.0%
Education 14.5%
Construction 13.3%
Professional/Tech 10.1%
Manufacturing 8.3%

University

35.2%

Postgraduate

6.0%

Born Overseas

29.7%

Dwellings

555

Transport to Work

Transport in Keilor Lodge is almost entirely car-dependent: 91.3% of residents drive to work, above the national car-use rate, and public transport accounts for only 2.2%. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary, so families rely on schools in neighbouring parts of the 3038 postcode. Crime totals 54 incidents per year for a rate of 32.4 per 1,000 residents, which is low compared to metropolitan Melbourne's higher-density suburbs. Property and deception offences account for 29 of the 54 incidents. The suburb scores decile 7 on IRSAD, indicating above-average advantage nationally. Rent-to-income sits at 19.2%, below the 30% stress level, and only 5.8% of residents (93 people) need daily assistance, a reflection of the relatively comfortable socioeconomic profile despite the above-average median age of 44.

Drive

91.3%

Public Transport

2.2%

Walk / Cycle

N/A

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.22%/yr

(-19 people/yr)

Established

The suburb is on a modest declining trajectory, with annual population change at negative 0.22%, or roughly 19 fewer residents per year. The medium forecast holds the broader area at around 8,528 by 2031, down from 8,732 in 2025. The 10-year population change was 2.8%, far below metropolitan Melbourne's growth rate, and the area has not recovered to its pre-COVID population of 8,953. Net overseas migration adds 48 residents annually to the area, but net internal migration subtracts 28, leaving a thin positive balance. The gentrification score is 0 and the stage is not gentrifying, which fits a suburb that already has affordability at 52.1% and has held stable since 2011. Rent grew 27.7% over the decade while real income grew 6.0%, compressing affordability for renters compared to owners.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+48

Net Internal / yr

-28

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

54

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

32.4

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
29
Crimes against the person
11
Justice procedures offences
7
Public order and security offences
6

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Keilor Lodge compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 23%
Household Income
Top 16%
Rent Level
Top 12%
Renters
Bottom 27%
Uni Educated
Top 25%
Public Transport
Bottom 37%
Born Overseas
Top 14%
Density
Top 8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Keilor Lodge a good suburb to live in?

Keilor Lodge has a low crime rate of 32.4 incidents per 1,000 residents and 50% of households own their home outright, well above the national rate. Household income sits in the 83.5th percentile nationally and mortgage stress is low at 20.9% of income. The trade-off is strong car dependence at 91.3% and limited public transport.

What is the median house price in Keilor Lodge?

The median house price is $958,800 as of Apr-Jun 2024, down 12.8% from the peak of $1,100,000 in Jan-Mar 2024. Long-run growth is 95.7% from $490,000 in 2013, a CAGR of 4.9% over 14 years. Weekly rent averages $421 and monthly mortgage repayments average $1,993.

What schools are in Keilor Lodge?

No schools are recorded inside the Keilor Lodge suburb boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring parts of the 3038 postcode and surrounding areas. Residents are above average in education, with 35.2% holding university qualifications, which is 5.1 percentage points above the national figure.

Is Keilor Lodge safe?

Keilor Lodge recorded 54 total crime incidents in the most recent year, a rate of 32.4 per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences make up 29 of those 54 incidents. The suburb scores decile 8 on the IRSD index, placing it above most suburbs nationally on the measure of relative disadvantage, suggesting a low-risk residential environment.

Is Keilor Lodge good for property investment?

The rental yield is modest: weekly rent of $421 against a $958,800 median implies a gross yield below 2.3%, and the vacancy rate of 4.3% is above the balanced-market threshold of 3%. The suburb suits capital growth investors more than yield seekers, with a 14-year CAGR of 4.9% and only 1 planning permit lodged in the past 12 months, limiting supply pressure.

How is Keilor Lodge's population changing?

The suburb is declining slowly at negative 0.22% per year, roughly 19 fewer residents annually. The medium forecast projects the broader area at around 8,528 by 2031, below the current 8,732. Net overseas migration adds 48 residents annually but net internal migration removes 28. The population has not recovered to pre-COVID levels of 8,953.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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