VIC 3173 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Keysborough

Keysborough's population has more than tripled in a decade, with a 201.3% lift since 2011 that ranks among the steepest in Greater Dandenong. The forecast still pencils 4.39% annual growth (752 persons/year), more than double Doncaster East's 1.95% and roughly four times Dandenong's 1.66%. Yet the demographic engine is shifting: the young-share fell 2.1pp while seniors rose 3.0pp, signalling the greenfield estates are aging into established stock. Median house prices hit $903,500 in mid-2024, up 107.7% from $435,000 in 2013 (5.4% CAGR), 3.9% off the 2024 peak. With 55.6% born overseas and Khmer as the leading non-English language (1,376 speakers), the suburb's identity is a Cambodian-anchored migrant-family belt rather than a young-professional gentrifier.

Keysborough urban fabric map

Population

30,018

Median Age

36.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,991/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

8

Median House

$904K

Apr-Jun 2024

21.71 km²· 1,382.4 people/km²· Family income $2,015/wk

Keysborough is built for established families chasing detached stock at sub-million pricing. Separate houses dominate at 89.5%, apartments are barely 1.1%, and 52.4% of dwellings carry 4+ bedrooms versus 41.7% with 3. The median house price was $903,500 in April-June 2024, materially below Doncaster East's $1.67M for comparable 4-bed family product, though above Noble Park's $785,000. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,167 represent 25.1% of household income, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and tighter than Doncaster East's 30.9%. Owner-occupation runs 80.8% (32.7% outright, 48.1% mortgaged), among the highest in Melbourne's southeast and well above the 58.3% in Dandenong. The catch: at 5.4% CAGR over 14 years, leverage hasn't been punished, but the -3.9% retrace from peak signals the easy-money phase is over.

For Buyers

Keysborough is built for established families chasing detached stock at sub-million pricing. Separate houses dominate at 89.5%, apartments are barely 1.1%, and 52.4% of dwellings carry 4+ bedrooms versus 41.7% with 3. The median house price was $903,500 in April-June 2024, materially below Doncaster East's $1.67M for comparable 4-bed family product, though above Noble Park's $785,000. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,167 represent 25.1% of household income, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and tighter than Doncaster East's 30.9%. Owner-occupation runs 80.8% (32.7% outright, 48.1% mortgaged), among the highest in Melbourne's southeast and well above the 58.3% in Dandenong. The catch: at 5.4% CAGR over 14 years, leverage hasn't been punished, but the -3.9% retrace from peak signals the easy-money phase is over.

For Investors

Keysborough's rental market is structurally tight rather than deep. Only 19.2% of households rent, less than half Noble Park's 41.7% and a third of Dandenong's 55%, with median weekly rent at $421, above Noble Park's $341 but well below Doncaster East's $462. Vacancy of 4.2% is materially tighter than Noble Park (7.8%) or Doncaster East (8.7%), reflecting the dominance of owner-occupiers and limited rental stock turnover. Gross yield on a $903,500 house at $421/week works out near 2.4%, thin but better than Doncaster East's 1.4%. Rents grew 23.8% over the cycle while real incomes rose only 11.3%, meaning landlords have captured the spread. Net overseas migration adds 281 residents/year (vs 42 internal), so demand pressure is durable, but only 6 development applications in 12 months means new supply is constrained, not flooding.

Development Activity

Total DAs

22

Last 12 Months

8

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+166.7%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Subdivision
6
Other
5

Schools in Keysborough iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Haileybury College

ICSEA 1191 Combined Independent

Prep-12 · 4880 students

Lighthouse Christian College

ICSEA 1082 Combined Independent

Prep-12 · 827 students

Resurrection School

ICSEA 1065 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 415 students

Keysborough Gardens Primary School

ICSEA 1065 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 477 students

Mt Hira College

ICSEA 1008 Combined Independent

Prep-12 · 863 students

Demographics

The composition is unusual for Melbourne's southeast: median age 36 sits 4 years below the national median, while university attainment of 45.3% runs 15.2 percentage points above the national average. The 55.6% overseas-born share, 34.0pp above the national line, is anchored by Chinese (5,704) and Vietnamese (3,477) ancestries, with Indian (2,195) reflecting a more recent skilled-migration wave. Khmer leads non-English languages at 1,376 speakers, the largest concentration in this batch and a legacy of the 1980s Cambodian refugee resettlement that built Springvale-Keysborough as a regional hub. Mandarin (956) and Cantonese (538) trail, with Punjabi (340) and Sinhalese (338) capturing the South Asian layer. Buddhism counts 5,876 residents and Islam 2,176, together representing roughly 27% of the population, a faith mix that supports the Springvale Asian Business Association precinct nearby.

Age Distribution

0-14
19.6%
15-24
12.9%
25-44
29.9%
45-64
23.4%
65+
14.1%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
0.7%
2 bed
5.3%
3 bed
41.7%
4+ bed
52.4%

Dwelling Structure

89.5%

Houses

9.4%

Townhouse

1.1%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 32.7% Mortgage 48.1% Rent 19.2%

The price arc spans 14 years of compounded growth: $435,000 in 2013, peaking at $940,000 in Jan-Mar 2024, then $903,500 by mid-2024, a 107.7% lift and 5.4% CAGR. Tenure leans heavily toward owners at 80.8% (32.7% outright, 48.1% mortgage), well above the 58.3% in neighbouring Dandenong and signalling family-stage retention rather than churn. Bedroom mix skews large: 52.4% have 4+ bedrooms and 41.7% have 3, with only 6.0% at 2-or-smaller, reflecting the post-2010 greenfield product geared to migrant-family formation. Mortgage-to-income runs 25.1%, below the 30% stress threshold but rising as rates compound. Housing stock is 89.5% detached, 9.4% semi-detached townhouses, and only 1.1% apartments, the inverse of Dandenong's 41.5% detached / 27.7% apartment mix in the same LGA. Price-to-income sits near 8.7x, above the 6-8x national affordability benchmark.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,167

Rent / wk

$421

HH Size

3.2

Personal Income / wk

$728

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

4.2%

Unoccupied

400

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

21.1%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

25.1%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Khmer
1,376
Mandarin
956
Canton
538
Punjabi
340
Sinhal
338
Greek
234

Ancestry

Other
9,546
Chinese
5,704
Vietnamese
3,477
English
3,407
Indian
2,195
Ancestry NS
1,374

Household Composition

17.5%

Couples, no children

26,396

Total families

Economy & Employment

Keysborough exports labour to the broader southeast industrial corridor. Healthcare leads industries at 17.0% (1,473 workers), Manufacturing 11.5% (996), Professional/Tech 9.5%, Retail 9.1% and Construction 8.0%, a blue-collar-plus-services mix consistent with proximity to the Dandenong South industrial precinct and the EastLink corridor. Occupations confirm the split personality: Professionals lead at 2,893, but Labourers (1,975), Clerical (1,837) and Machinery Operators (1,431) outweigh Managers (1,655), unusual in a suburb with 45.3% university attainment. Unemployment runs 5.7%, below Noble Park's 7.2% but above the metro low-4s, with participation at 59.8%. The SEIFA paradox is stark: IRSAD decile 2 (bottom 20% nationally for combined advantage-disadvantage) yet household income at the 74.6th percentile, a gap driven by large household sizes (3.2 persons) diluting per-capita scores and credentials earned overseas not yet fully monetised.

Unemployment

5.9%

Labour Force

7,751

Unemployed

458

Quarterly Trend

Jun-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
5
Disadvantage
4
Economic resources
7
Education & occupation
6

Full-time

67.0%

Part-time

27.3%

Participation

59.8%

Employed

13,606

Occupations

Professionals 2,893
Labourers 1,975
Clerical/Admin 1,837
Managers 1,655
Machinery/Drivers 1,431
Sales 1,252
Community/Personal 1,235

Top Industries

Healthcare 17.0%
Manufacturing 11.5%
Professional/Tech 9.5%
Retail 9.1%
Construction 8.0%

University

45.3%

Postgraduate

11.6%

Born Overseas

55.6%

Dwellings

9,099

Transport to Work

Schools are the standout asset. Haileybury College (ICSEA 1191, 4,880 enrolments) is one of the largest independent schools in Australia and sits in the top 5% nationally for advantage, anchoring property values across the eastern half of the suburb. Lighthouse Christian (ICSEA 1082, 827) and Resurrection Catholic (1065, 415) round out the faith-based options, while Keysborough Gardens Primary (1065, 477) provides the strongest government catchment. Mt Hira College (ICSEA 1008, 863) serves the Islamic community. Transport is the structural weakness: 88.5% drive to work, only 2.4% use public transport, and just 1.0% walk or cycle, reflecting the absence of a rail line in the suburb. Crime runs 59.2 per 1,000 residents (1,777 incidents, 65% property-and-deception), notably lower than Noble Park's 85.2 and far below Dandenong's 259.2, but above Doncaster East's 33.6. IRSAD decile 2 places overall advantage in the bottom 20% nationally, a SEIFA reading at odds with the 74.6th percentile household income.

Drive

88.5%

Public Transport

2.4%

Walk / Cycle

1.0%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+4.39%/yr

(+752 people/yr)

High Growth

The forecast pencils 4.39% annual growth, adding 752 residents/year to reach roughly 22,306 by 2031 on the medium scenario, more than double Doncaster East's 1.95% and well above the metro average. The driver is overwhelmingly overseas migration at +281/year versus +42 internal, so the inflow is greenfield-buyer rather than interstate-relocator. The 10-year population change of 201.3% is among the steepest in Greater Dandenong and reflects the post-2011 land release on the eastern flank. The trajectory is shifting under the surface: young-share fell 2.1pp while senior-share rose 3.0pp, classic greenfield-aging-into-established succession. Affordability, measured as mortgage-to-income, improved from 64.6% in 2011 to 58.4% in 2021 thanks to real income growth of 11.3%, though rent growth at 23.8% has outpaced wages. Gentrification score is 0 (Not gentrifying), as the suburb is following a new-development trajectory rather than displacing existing residents.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+281

Net Internal / yr

+42

0

Gentrification Signal

New development

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

1,777

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

59.2

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
1,162
Crimes against the person
259
Justice procedures offences
184
Drug offences
108

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Keysborough compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 0%
Household Income
Top 25%
Rent Level
Top 12%
Apartments
Bottom 23%
Renters
Bottom 47%
Uni Educated
Top 13%
Public Transport
Bottom 39%
Born Overseas
Top 1%
Density
Top 12%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Keysborough a good suburb to live in?

For migrant families wanting detached stock under $1M with strong school options, yes. Haileybury College (ICSEA 1191, 4,880 enrolments) is a major draw, mortgage-to-income runs 25.1% (below the 30% stress threshold), and crime at 59.2/1,000 is well below Dandenong's 259.2. The trade-off is transport: 88.5% drive to work and only 2.4% use public transport.

What is the median house price in Keysborough?

The median house price was $903,500 in April-June 2024, down 3.9% from the $940,000 peak in Jan-Mar 2024 but up 107.7% from $435,000 in 2013, a 5.4% CAGR over 14 years. That sits below Doncaster East's $1.67M and above Noble Park's $785,000.

What schools are in Keysborough?

Six schools serve Keysborough. Haileybury College (Independent, ICSEA 1191, 4,880 enrolments) and Lighthouse Christian (1082, 827) lead the independent sector. Resurrection School (Catholic, 1065, 415) and Keysborough Gardens Primary (Government, 1065, 477) are the strongest primaries. Mt Hira College (1008, 863) serves Islamic families, and Chandler Park Primary (974, 419) rounds out the government options.

Is Keysborough safe?

Crime runs 59.2 per 1,000 residents (1,777 incidents in 12 months), with 65% property-and-deception offences (1,162 cases). That sits well below neighbouring Dandenong's 259.2/1,000 and Noble Park's 85.2/1,000, but above the affluent Doncaster East benchmark of 33.6/1,000. Crimes against the person were 259 incidents.

Is Keysborough good for property investment?

Vacancy of 4.2% is tight versus Noble Park's 7.8% and Doncaster East's 8.7%, with median rent of $421/week implying a ~2.4% gross yield. Only 19.2% of households rent, so depth is moderate. Rent growth ran 23.8% over the cycle while real incomes rose only 11.3%, and net overseas migration adds 281 residents/year.

How is Keysborough's population changing?

The population has grown 201.3% over the past decade and is forecast to add 4.39% annually (752 residents/year) through 2031, more than double Doncaster East's 1.95%. The mix is shifting: young-share fell 2.1pp while senior-share rose 3.0pp, with overseas migration (+281/year) driving 87% of the inflow versus +42 internal.

What languages are spoken in Keysborough?

55.6% of residents were born overseas, 34.0pp above the national average. Khmer leads non-English languages with 1,376 speakers, reflecting the 1980s Cambodian resettlement legacy. Mandarin (956), Cantonese (538), Punjabi (340) and Sinhalese (338) follow. Chinese (5,704) and Vietnamese (3,477) lead reported ancestries.

Is Keysborough seeing new development activity?

Only 6 development applications were lodged in the past 12 months, low for a 30,000-resident suburb growing at 4.39% annually. Recent activity has skewed toward subdivision rather than greenfield estates, with multi-lot subdivisions of existing warehouses and 11-lot certifications dominating. New supply is constrained relative to the +281/year overseas migration inflow.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

Explore Keysborough on the Map

View parcels, zoning overlays, DA applications, schools and more.

Open Interactive Map

More Suburbs in VIC