Lucas
At a median age of 32, Lucas sits 8 years below the national figure, making it one of Ballarat's youngest suburbs, and the family-formation character is unmistakable: 62.9% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms and couples with children account for 1,374 of 2,478 families. SEIFA scores place Lucas at decile 10 on both IRSD and IER, the top national advantage tier on economic resources and relative disadvantage. Household income lands in the 73.4th percentile nationally, supported by a workforce where 40.4% hold university qualifications, which is 10.3 percentage points above the national average. With 97.7% separate houses on 2.29 square kilometres, Lucas is purpose-built suburban Ballarat.
Population
2,994
Median Age
32.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,956/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
16
Median House
$612K
Apr-Jun 2024
The median house price of $612,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) is down 13.1% from the 2022 peak of $705,000, giving buyers purchasing power they lacked two years ago. A 14-year compound annual growth rate of 4.1% from $348,000 in 2013 shows steady long-run appreciation despite the post-peak correction. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,700, and the mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.1% stays well below the 30% stress threshold, meaning Lucas is affordable to service relative to local incomes. Stock is almost entirely separate houses at 97.7%, and 62.9% have 4 or more bedrooms, so buyers seeking family-sized detached homes will find supply. Outright owners (21.7%) are fewer than mortgage holders (43.5%), consistent with a suburb still in its early ownership cycle attracting first and second home buyers.
For Buyers
The median house price of $612,500 (Apr-Jun 2024) is down 13.1% from the 2022 peak of $705,000, giving buyers purchasing power they lacked two years ago. A 14-year compound annual growth rate of 4.1% from $348,000 in 2013 shows steady long-run appreciation despite the post-peak correction. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,700, and the mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.1% stays well below the 30% stress threshold, meaning Lucas is affordable to service relative to local incomes. Stock is almost entirely separate houses at 97.7%, and 62.9% have 4 or more bedrooms, so buyers seeking family-sized detached homes will find supply. Outright owners (21.7%) are fewer than mortgage holders (43.5%), consistent with a suburb still in its early ownership cycle attracting first and second home buyers.
For Investors
A 34.8% renter share and weekly rent of $380 give landlords a solid tenant base, with rent-to-income at 19.4%, well below stress levels, suggesting rental demand is sustainable. Rent has grown 38.8% over the measured period, outpacing income growth of 9.7% in real terms, pointing to structural undersupply relative to demand. Vacancy sits at 4.5%, modestly elevated, which tempers short-term yield expectations. Gross yield on the $612,500 median against $380 weekly rent approximates 3.2%, reasonable for a regional VIC market. The suburb recorded 14 development applications in the past 12 months, mostly subdivision work indicating continued land fragmentation rather than large apartment supply. Net overseas migration of 134 per year partly offsets net internal outflow of 236, maintaining some population floor for rental demand.
Development Activity
Total DAs
23
Last 12 Months
16
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+300.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Lucas iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Siena Catholic Primary School
Prep-6 · 336 students
Lucas Primary School
Prep-6 · 527 students
Demographics
The median age of 32 is 8 years below the national figure, and Lucas is firmly in family-formation territory: couples with children represent 1,374 of 2,478 families, while couples without children number only 511. University qualifications at 40.4% sit 10.3 percentage points above the national average, driven by a workforce concentrated in Healthcare (28.1%) and Education (11.8%), both knowledge-intensive sectors. Overseas-born residents at 22.3% are marginally 0.7 points above national. Ancestry skews Anglo-Celtic: English (1,123), Irish (331) and Scottish (289) are the top three groups, with Indian ancestry (222) the largest non-Anglo cohort. Languages spoken include Malayalam (42), Punjabi (41) and Mandarin (32), reflecting a small but diverse migrant stream. Average household size of 2.8 is 0.3 above the national figure, consistent with the family-dominant composition.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
97.7%
Houses
2.3%
Townhouse
N/A
Apartment
Tenure
Lucas is overwhelmingly a detached house suburb: 97.7% separate houses with just 2.3% semi-detached and no apartments. Bedroom size skews large, with 62.9% of dwellings having 4 or more bedrooms and 31.2% having 3 bedrooms. The median price of $612,500 is down from a 2022 peak of $705,000, a 13.1% correction, though prices have risen 76% since 2013 from an earliest recorded $348,000. Tenure splits show 43.5% under mortgage, 34.8% renting and 21.7% owning outright, a pattern typical of newer growth-area suburbs where recent buyers dominate. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 20.1% and rent-to-income of 19.4% both sit below stress thresholds, making housing costs manageable compared to many state and national benchmarks.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,700
Rent / wk
$380
HH Size
2.8
Personal Income / wk
$923
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.5%
Unoccupied
50
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
19.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
20.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
20.6%
Couples, no children
2,478
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare employs 28.1% of Lucas workers (315 people), the single largest sector, reflecting proximity to Ballarat Base Hospital and associated medical services. Education follows at 11.8% (132), Construction at 9.4% (105), Public Admin at 8.5% (95) and Retail at 8.3% (93). By occupation, Professionals lead at 405, followed by Community and Personal service workers at 223 and Clerical/Admin at 186. Full-time employment runs at 62.7% with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, both consistent with a healthy labour market. SEIFA places Lucas at IER decile 10 and IEO decile 8 nationally, meaning above-average economic resources and education-occupation advantage. Real income grew 9.7% over the decade, with personal weekly income averaging $923 and household weekly income $1,956.
Unemployment
2.1%
Labour Force
12,441
Unemployed
267
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
62.7%
Part-time
34.2%
Participation
66.3%
Employed
1,429
Occupations
Top Industries
University
40.4%
Postgraduate
11.6%
Born Overseas
22.3%
Dwellings
1,052
Transport to Work
Car dependence is extreme: 92.2% of residents drive to work and only 0.9% use public transport, lower than most metropolitan suburbs nationally, reflecting Ballarat's car-oriented urban form. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring parts of the Ballarat LGA. Crime runs at 55.1 incidents per 1,000 residents, with property and deception offences making up 131 of the 165 total incidents. SEIFA IRSD decile 10 places Lucas in the least disadvantaged tier nationally, while the IRSAD decile 9 score confirms above-average socioeconomic advantage. Only 5.0% of residents (145 people) need daily assistance, below what you might expect given the 7.8-point rise in senior share. Volunteering at 12.9% is moderate, and housing stress is low: mortgage-to-income at 20.1% and rent-to-income at 19.4% both remain below the 30% stress threshold.
Drive
92.2%
Public Transport
0.9%
Walk / Cycle
1.3%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
-0.32%/yr
(-67 people/yr)
EstablishedLucas carries an aging trajectory despite its young median age: the senior share rose 7.8 points and working-age share fell 2.9 points over the past decade, and the young-adult share fell 2.2 points. Population in the broader SA2 declined 0.6% over 10 years, and the annual trend projects a further loss of around 67 persons per year (-0.32%), with the medium forecast falling from 20,917 in 2025 to approximately 20,492 by 2031. Net internal migration runs at negative 236 per year, partially offset by net overseas migration of positive 134. The gentrification score of 19 and classification as not gentrifying signals Lucas is an established, consolidated suburb rather than an emerging value-uplift opportunity. Affordability has been stable, moving from 57.0% in 2011 to 58.6% in 2021, compared to national trends of deterioration.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+134
Net Internal / yr
-236
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -236/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
165
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
55.1
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Lucas compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Lucas a good suburb to live in?
Lucas ranks at SEIFA IRSD decile 10, the least disadvantaged tier nationally, with household income in the 73.4th percentile. University qualifications reach 40.4%, which is 10.3 points above the national figure. The main trade-offs are extreme car dependence (92.2% drive to work) and no recorded schools within the suburb boundary.
What is the median house price in Lucas?
The median house price is $612,500 as of Apr-Jun 2024, down 13.1% from the 2022 peak of $705,000. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,700 and weekly rent is $380. Over 14 years from 2013, prices have grown 76% from $348,000, a compound annual rate of 4.1%.
What schools are in Lucas?
No schools are recorded within the Lucas suburb boundary in this dataset. The suburb is part of the broader Ballarat LGA, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The resident population is well-educated, with 40.4% holding university qualifications, which is 10.3 percentage points above the national average.
Is Lucas safe?
Lucas recorded 165 incidents in the most recent period, a crime rate of 55.1 per 1,000 residents. Of those, 131 were property and deception offences and 18 were crimes against the person. SEIFA IRSD decile 10 places Lucas in the least disadvantaged national tier, which correlates with lower crime risk compared to higher-disadvantage areas.
Is Lucas good for property investment?
Lucas has a 34.8% renter share and $380 weekly rent, implying a gross yield near 3.2% on the $612,500 median. Rent grew 38.8% over the measured period, above income growth of 9.7% in real terms. Vacancy at 4.5% is modestly elevated. The 14-year price CAGR is 4.1%, though prices are 13.1% below the 2022 peak.
How is Lucas's population changing?
The broader SA2 population is declining at approximately 0.32% per year (-67 persons annually), with a medium forecast of around 20,492 by 2031 compared to 20,917 in 2025. Net internal outflow averages 236 per year, partially offset by net overseas migration of 134. The trajectory is classified as aging, with the senior share up 7.8 points over the decade.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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