Narre Warren South
Sitting between the more polished Berwick to its east and the still-emerging Clyde North to its south, Narre Warren South is the Casey LGA's quiet middle child: 30,909 residents at 2,335/km², median house $842,500 (Apr-Jun 2024), 93% detached and 66.2% four-bed-plus. The signature number is income relative to education. Household income hits the 82.1st percentile nationally and IER (economic resources) sits in decile 10, yet only 33% hold university qualifications, just 2.9pp above the national mark and well below Glen Waverley's mid-50s. The driver is dual-income trades and healthcare wages, not professional salaries. Prices peaked at $870K in late 2023 and have drifted -3.2% since, but the 14-year CAGR is still 5.3%, doubling 2013's $410K. Forecast trend is +0.74%/yr, with -430/yr internal outflow offset by +306/yr overseas migration, mostly Sri Lankan and Indian families anchoring an aging-trajectory profile.
Population
30,909
Median Age
34.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,158/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
4
Median House
$842K
Apr-Jun 2024
The buy case is square footage at a price that's structurally cheaper than the suburbs surrounding it. Median house $842,500 sits about 25-30% below central middle-ring benchmarks like Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley (both well above $1.4M), and roughly 5-8% under Berwick's family-equivalent stock. What you get is genuinely larger: 66.2% of dwellings are four-bed-plus, 93% are separate houses, and apartments are statistically absent. Mortgage cost runs $1,937/month against $2,158 weekly household income, putting mortgage-to-income at 20.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and lower than mortgage-belt averages in outer-growth corridors. Prices are -3.2% off the late-2023 peak of $870K, so timing isn't punitive. The trade-off is patience on capital growth: with -430/yr internal outflow and an aging trajectory, this is a hold-the-house-raise-the-kids suburb, not a flip play. CAGR has been 5.3% over 14 years, decent but not the 7-8% Berwick has historically posted.
For Buyers
The buy case is square footage at a price that's structurally cheaper than the suburbs surrounding it. Median house $842,500 sits about 25-30% below central middle-ring benchmarks like Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley (both well above $1.4M), and roughly 5-8% under Berwick's family-equivalent stock. What you get is genuinely larger: 66.2% of dwellings are four-bed-plus, 93% are separate houses, and apartments are statistically absent. Mortgage cost runs $1,937/month against $2,158 weekly household income, putting mortgage-to-income at 20.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and lower than mortgage-belt averages in outer-growth corridors. Prices are -3.2% off the late-2023 peak of $870K, so timing isn't punitive. The trade-off is patience on capital growth: with -430/yr internal outflow and an aging trajectory, this is a hold-the-house-raise-the-kids suburb, not a flip play. CAGR has been 5.3% over 14 years, decent but not the 7-8% Berwick has historically posted.
For Investors
Yields are thin and the rental pool is shallow, which makes Narre Warren South a marginal investor postcode rather than a clear buy. Only 16.9% of dwellings are rented (versus 58.5% on a mortgage), one of the lower rental shares in SE Melbourne mortgage belt and well under Clyde North's churn-heavy mid-30s. Median weekly rent is $401, putting gross yield around 2.5% on the $842,500 median, materially below national averages near 3.5-4%. Vacancy at 2.9% is healthy but not tight enough to drive rents fast, even though rents have grown 20.6% in a decade. Development pipeline is genuinely quiet: only 3 planning permits in the last 12 months versus dozens monthly in Clyde North, so supply shock risk is low but so is value-add potential. Net internal migration runs -430/yr; +306/yr overseas inflow keeps tenants flowing, mostly Sri Lankan and Indian families needing four-bed houses. The realistic play is a 4-bed family rental held for 10+ years with the SEIFA IER decile-10 demographic underwriting tenant quality, not yield optimization.
Development Activity
Total DAs
29
Last 12 Months
4
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+33.3%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Narre Warren South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Trinity Catholic Primary School
Prep-6 · 507 students
Heritage College
Prep-12 · 613 students
Hillsmeade Primary School
Prep-6 · 782 students
Strathaird Primary School
Prep-6 · 761 students
Narre Warren South P-12 College
Prep-12 · 2404 students
Demographics
Demographics tell the South-Asian-anchored mortgage-belt story sharply. 42.0% were born overseas, a striking +20.4 percentage points above the national average and roughly double Berwick's overseas share when adjusted for the same generation. The top non-English ancestries are Indian (2,136), Chinese (1,515) and Sri Lankan (proxied by 468 Sinhalese speakers, the #1 non-English language ahead of Mandarin's 398 and Punjabi's 320). Religion data confirms it: 4,963 Muslim residents, 1,263 Buddhist, against 12,546 Christian. Median age is 34, six years below the 40 national median, and household size averages 3.4 versus the 2.5 national benchmark, signalling intact nuclear families with school-age kids rather than the older retirees dominating Mount Waverley. University share at 33.0% is only +2.9pp above national, not the +20pp gap you see in Glen Waverley, so this is a credentialed-but-not-elite cohort doing trades, healthcare and clerical work. Volunteering at 9.8% is low, consistent with two-earner family suburbs.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
93.0%
Houses
6.9%
Townhouse
0.0%
Apartment
Tenure
The housing stock is monolithic and that's the whole pitch. 93.0% of dwellings are separate houses, 6.9% semi-detached, and apartments don't register, which is virtually identical to Clyde North's structure but with 14 years of additional ownership tenure built in. Bedroom mix skews even larger than the SE Melbourne norm: 66.2% are four-bed-plus, 32.5% three-bed, and only 1.3% are two-bed-or-smaller, compared with Berwick's roughly 60% four-plus share. Tenure split: 24.7% owned outright, 58.5% mortgaged, 16.9% rented. The mortgage-heavy tilt is classic mortgage-belt and 4pp above the metro average. Prices started at $410,000 in 2013 and reached $842,500 by Apr-Jun 2024, a 105.5% rise (CAGR 5.3%), with the peak of $870K in late 2023 now -3.2% off. Price-to-household-income runs around 7.5x ($842,500 over $112,200 annual), elevated nationally but lower than Glen Waverley's 12-13x. Mortgage-to-income at 20.7% says the buyers can carry the debt; rent-to-income at 18.6% confirms tenants aren't stretched.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,937
Rent / wk
$401
HH Size
3.4
Personal Income / wk
$749
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
2.9%
Unoccupied
260
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.6%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
20.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
14.2%
Couples, no children
28,230
Total families
Economy & Employment
The economic base is non-discretionary services and trades, which is why the suburb behaves defensively in downturns. Healthcare leads at 18.3% of workers (1,681 jobs), followed by Construction 11.7% (1,074) and Manufacturing 10.7% (982), Education 9.6%, Retail 8.3%. That's a more blue-collar mix than Glen Waverley's professional-services-heavy economy and closer to Berwick's profile. Occupations split: Professionals 2,427, Clerical/Admin 2,198, Community/Personal 1,669, Managers 1,653, Labourers 1,617. Clerical and community-services counts are unusually high, reflecting an aged-care and disability-services workforce serving SE Melbourne. Unemployment is 6.4%, slightly above the 5.5% national mark, with 63.1% participation. The SEIFA reveal: IER (economic resources) sits in decile 10 (top 10% nationally), IRSAD 7, IRSD 6, but IEO (education) is only 6. That gap, capital decile 10 against education decile 6, signals a tradie-and-healthcare income belt where dual-earner households out-earn their qualifications.
Unemployment
4.8%
Labour Force
7,902
Unemployed
380
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.8%
Part-time
29.8%
Participation
63.1%
Employed
14,246
Occupations
Top Industries
University
33.0%
Postgraduate
8.0%
Born Overseas
42.0%
Dwellings
8,735
Transport to Work
Livability is the family-belt baseline: low crime, big schools, drive-everywhere transport. Crime sits at 35.1 offences per 1,000 residents (1,086 total), below the Victorian mortgage-belt average and under Casey hot-spots like Cranbourne. Property and deception offences dominate at 634, a typical SE Melbourne mix. The school footprint is the strongest feature: Trinity Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1070, 507 students) and Heritage College (ICSEA 1058, 613, Independent) both sit in the top quintile, while Narre Warren South P-12 College is one of Victoria's larger government schools at 2,404 enrolments, though ICSEA 918 reflects the catchment's working-family mix. Compared with Glen Waverley's 1100+ ICSEA government schools, the public option here is volume not selectivity. Transport is car-bound: 89.6% drive to work, only 2.5% take public transport, 0.7% walk or cycle, identical to Clyde North. SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 confirms a middle-class profile, above outer-growth peers but below central middle-ring suburbs.
Drive
89.6%
Public Transport
2.5%
Walk / Cycle
0.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.74%/yr
(+127 people/yr)
EstablishedGrowth is decelerating into a mature plateau, the textbook outcome for an inner-Casey suburb that built out a decade ago. Forecast trend is +0.74%/year (about 127 persons), well under Clyde North's high-single-digit growth and below Casey LGA average. Shift signals are clearer: young-cohort share -5.0pp over the decade, senior share +3.4pp, gentrification score 18 (not gentrifying), so this is aging in place rather than turning over. Migration mix is the structural story: -430/yr net internal departures (families pushed further out to Clyde North, Cranbourne East) offset by +306/yr overseas arrivals, mostly Indian and Sri Lankan, the primary driver. Real income growth ran -4.6% over the decade, a sobering number that explains why locals rotate out to cheaper postcodes. Affordability ratio held at 54% (2011: 52.8, 2021: 54.3), classed stable. Rent growth +20.6% over ten years tracked Casey LGA but is a fraction of inner-east. Population: 17,083 in 2025 forecast to 18,400 by 2031, ~7.7% over six years.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+306
Net Internal / yr
-430
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -430/yr, Strong overseas inflow +306/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
1,086
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
35.1
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Narre Warren South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Narre Warren South a good suburb to live in?
It's a good fit for families wanting a 4-bed house under $850K with low crime (35.1/1k, below Casey LGA average) and quality schools like Trinity Catholic (ICSEA 1070). Less suited to renters or commuters, with only 2.5% public transport use and 16.9% rentals.
What is the median house price in Narre Warren South?
The median house price is $842,500 (Apr-Jun 2024), -3.2% off the late-2023 peak of $870K but up 105.5% from $410K in 2013. CAGR over 14 years is 5.3%, roughly 25-30% cheaper than central middle-ring suburbs like Glen Waverley.
What schools are in Narre Warren South?
Five schools: Trinity Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1070, 507 students), Heritage College Independent (ICSEA 1058, 613), Hillsmeade Primary (ICSEA 994, 782), Strathaird Primary (ICSEA 975, 761) and Narre Warren South P-12 College (ICSEA 918, 2,404 enrolment, one of Victoria's largest government schools).
Is Narre Warren South safe?
Crime rate is 35.1 per 1,000 residents (1,086 incidents annually), below Casey LGA hotspots like Cranbourne and the Victorian mortgage-belt average. Property and deception offences dominate at 634, with crimes against the person at 231, a typical SE Melbourne family-suburb pattern.
Is Narre Warren South good for property investment?
It's marginal for investors. Gross yield is around 2.5% on $401/week rent against a $842,500 median, below the national 3.5-4% benchmark. Rentals make up only 16.9% of stock and vacancy is 2.9%. Better suited to long-hold family rentals than yield plays.
How is Narre Warren South's population changing?
Forecast growth is +0.74%/year (127 persons), reaching 18,400 by 2031. Net internal migration runs -430/year (families moving to Clyde North) but overseas arrivals add +306/year, mostly Indian and Sri Lankan. Aging trajectory: senior share +3.4pp, young share -5.0pp over the decade.
What languages are spoken in Narre Warren South?
42.0% of residents were born overseas, 20.4pp above national. Top non-English languages are Sinhalese (468 speakers), Mandarin (398), Punjabi (320), Arabic (279) and Hindi (206). Indian and Sri Lankan ancestry dominates the migrant base, with 4,963 Muslim residents alongside 1,263 Buddhists.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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