Narre Warren
Westfield Fountain Gate, one of Australia's largest shopping centres, anchors this 14.5 sq km Casey corridor town of 27,689, and the math around it is what makes Narre Warren interesting: a $750,000 median house price that sits 14% below Berwick's $877,000 next door but only 1% above Clyde North's $740,500, slotting Narre Warren into the corridor's price ladder by housing age rather than postcode prestige. Median age is 35, five years below the national 40, and 41.1% of residents were born overseas, 19.5 percentage points above the national share. The IRSAD decile of 8 and IER decile of 10 confirm a working mortgage-belt economy, not an aging-trajectory dormitory, even though the senior share has lifted 5.8 points since 2011.
Population
27,689
Median Age
35.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,741/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
23
Median House
$750K
Apr-Jun 2024
Narre Warren reads as a 3-4 bedroom detached-house market with a small mortgage cost: 53.5% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms, 36.9% have 4 or more, and 91.8% are separate houses, leaving apartments at 2.6% and semi-detached at 4.7%. The $750,000 median is 14.5% below Berwick's $877,000 and 11% below Narre Warren South's $842,500, which is the established versus newer estate split between sister suburbs. Mortgage-to-income lands at 23.0%, comfortably under the 30% stress threshold, and median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733 against a household income at the 61st percentile nationally. House prices have grown at 5.2% CAGR over 14 years, doubling from $370,000 in 2013, but the latest quarter equals the all-time peak, so first homebuyers are pricing in the top of cycle rather than a discount.
For Buyers
Narre Warren reads as a 3-4 bedroom detached-house market with a small mortgage cost: 53.5% of dwellings have 3 bedrooms, 36.9% have 4 or more, and 91.8% are separate houses, leaving apartments at 2.6% and semi-detached at 4.7%. The $750,000 median is 14.5% below Berwick's $877,000 and 11% below Narre Warren South's $842,500, which is the established versus newer estate split between sister suburbs. Mortgage-to-income lands at 23.0%, comfortably under the 30% stress threshold, and median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733 against a household income at the 61st percentile nationally. House prices have grown at 5.2% CAGR over 14 years, doubling from $370,000 in 2013, but the latest quarter equals the all-time peak, so first homebuyers are pricing in the top of cycle rather than a discount.
For Investors
Yields are the weak point: $360 weekly rent on a $750,000 median works out to roughly 2.5% gross, well below the 3.5%-4% an investor typically targets in outer Melbourne. The 29.1% renting share is solid for a suburb that's 91.8% detached, but vacancy at 3.7% is above the 2-3% range that signals a tight rental market. Development pipeline is quiet for a population this size: 17 planning permits in the last 12 months across 14.5 sq km, mostly small subdivisions, with no large-scale infill underway. Net overseas migration runs +63 a year against -67 net internal, meaning the market depends on overseas arrivals to absorb supply rather than Melburnians moving in. Rent growth of 21.2% over a decade is below comparable corridor suburbs, and the value play is land for future granny flat or subdivision plays rather than rental cashflow.
Development Activity
Total DAs
42
Last 12 Months
23
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+475.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Narre Warren iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Don Bosco School
Prep-6 · 207 students
Oatlands Primary School
Prep-6 · 1003 students
Fleetwood Primary School
Prep-6 · 309 students
Maramba Primary School
Prep-6 · 248 students
Fountain Gate Secondary College
7-12 · 1211 students
Demographics
The diversity profile is what separates Narre Warren from the rest of the Casey corridor: 41.1% born overseas, 19.5 percentage points above the national average, with Sinhalese (471 speakers), Mandarin (409), Punjabi (302), Arabic (226) and Persian (166) the top languages spoken at home. Religious split runs Christianity 11,212, Islam 2,729 and Buddhism 1,329, the second-highest Muslim share in the immediate corridor. University attainment at 30.8% is essentially level with the national 30.1%, which puts Narre Warren 7.8 percentage points behind Berwick's 38.6% and explains the income gap. Median age is 35 versus the 40 national median, and average household size is 2.9 against 2.5 nationally, signalling family households with school-age children rather than the empty-nester profile.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
91.8%
Houses
4.7%
Townhouse
2.6%
Apartment
Tenure
The price ladder runs Clyde North $740,500, Narre Warren $750,000, Narre Warren South $842,500, Berwick $877,000, with Narre Warren entrenched as the corridor's most affordable established option. Tenure splits 26.1% owned outright, 44.8% on a mortgage and 29.1% renting, almost mirroring the national distribution and noticeably more outright-owned than Clyde North's 9.3%, since Narre Warren built out 20-30 years earlier. Bedroom mix is 1.2% in 0-1 bed, 8.4% 2-bed, 53.5% 3-bed and 36.9% 4-plus. The price-to-income ratio sits at $750,000 against $90,532 annual household income, a multiplier of 8.3, slightly higher than the Greater Melbourne 8.0 ratio. The earliest-to-latest 102.7% gain since 2013 averages a 5.2% CAGR, well below Clayton's growth corridor numbers but consistent with a mature mortgage belt.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General (Apr-Jun 2024)
Mortgage / mo
$1,733
Rent / wkiMedian weekly rent for new bonds (year ending Sep 2025), Homes Victoria bond data (year-ending median). Census 2021 median: $360.
$560
Bond data year ending Sep 2025 · houses $550 · units $470
HH Size
2.9
Personal Income / wk
$741
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
3.7%
Unoccupied
349
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
20.7%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.0%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
20.1%
Couples, no children
23,242
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads industry employment at 17.8% (1,483 workers), Construction at 11.6%, Manufacturing at 10.5%, Education at 9.6% and Retail at 8.4%, the last propped up by Westfield Fountain Gate's 4,000 jobs in the centre. Occupations split Professionals 2,130, Clerical and Administrative 1,914, Community and Personal Services 1,506 and Labourers 1,502, a working-class profile that is whiter-collar than Hoppers Crossing but blue-collar compared with Berwick. Personal weekly income is $741, household weekly is $1,741, and household income lands at the 61st national percentile. The unemployment rate of 6.5% is roughly 2 points above the metropolitan Melbourne 4.5%, which the IER decile of 10 papers over by counting two-earner households rather than per-worker pay. SEIFA's IEO decile of 7 is the honest number for individual prospects.
Unemployment
2.4%
Labour Force
4,841
Unemployed
118
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
65.4%
Part-time
28.1%
Participation
59.4%
Employed
12,400
Occupations
Top Industries
University
30.8%
Postgraduate
7.7%
Born Overseas
41.1%
Dwellings
9,181
Transport to Work
Crime rate of 113.8 per 1,000 residents is well above the Victorian state average of 60-70 per 1,000, with 1,819 property and deception offences and 560 crimes against the person across the 3,152 reported incidents, partly inflated by Fountain Gate's catchment effect since shopping centres concentrate retail theft. Schools cover six government and Catholic options: Don Bosco School (ICSEA 1047, 207 pupils), Oatlands Primary (1043, 1003), Fountain Gate Secondary (938, 1211) and Fountain Gate Primary (936, 545), where the secondary college's ICSEA of 938 sits 62 points below the national 1000 mean and notably below Berwick's 1100-plus secondary options. Public transport mode share is just 2.9% with car driver at 90.6%, and a Princes Highway address means the M1 to Melbourne CBD is a 50-minute commute in peak.
Drive
90.6%
Public Transport
2.9%
Walk / Cycle
0.9%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.98%/yr
(+81 people/yr)
EstablishedNarre Warren is established, not growth corridor: 0.98% annual population growth (81 net persons a year) against the broader Melbourne South East 1.5-2% growth bands and well below Clyde North's 5%-plus. Forecast medium-trend population goes from 8,572 in 2026 to 8,975 by 2031 in the inner ABS modelling unit, a 4.7% lift over five years. Trajectory is aging: senior share up 5.8 points since 2011, working-age down 2.7 points and youth down 2.3 points, while real income has grown only 6.2% over the same decade. Net internal migration runs negative at -67 a year as families trade up to Berwick or out to Clyde North, while +63 in overseas migration just offsets the loss. Gentrification score of 22 puts Narre Warren in the early signs band, not the rapid transformation seen in Brunswick or Footscray.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+63
Net Internal / yr
-67
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +14% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
3,152
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
113.8
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Narre Warren compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Narre Warren a good suburb to live in?
It depends on your priorities: 91.8% detached housing, schools rated ICSEA 936-1047 and Westfield Fountain Gate within walking distance for many residents are the upsides, while a crime rate of 113.8 per 1,000 (around 70% above the Victorian average) and a Fountain Gate Secondary ICSEA of 938 are the trade-offs. The IRSAD decile of 8 and household income at the 61st national percentile suggest an average-to-comfortable working family lifestyle rather than premium living.
What is the median house price in Narre Warren?
The median house price is $750,000 as of the April-June 2024 quarter, up from $720,000 in late 2023 and $370,000 back in 2013, a 102.7% gain over 11 years that compounds to a 5.2% CAGR. That sits 14.5% below Berwick at $877,000 and 11% below Narre Warren South at $842,500, but 1% above Clyde North at $740,500. The latest quarter equals the all-time peak, so buyers are paying full price rather than getting a cycle discount.
What schools are in Narre Warren?
Six schools sit within Narre Warren: Don Bosco School (Catholic Primary, ICSEA 1047, 207 enrolments), Oatlands Primary School (Government, 1043, 1003), Fleetwood Primary (998, 309), Maramba Primary (995, 248), Fountain Gate Secondary College (938, 1211 students) and Fountain Gate Primary (936, 545). Oatlands and Don Bosco lead the ICSEA ladder, while Fountain Gate Secondary's 938 sits 62 points below the 1000 national average and well under Berwick secondary options at 1100-plus.
Is Narre Warren safe?
Total offences of 3,152 give a rate of 113.8 per 1,000 residents, roughly 70% above the Victorian state average of 60-70 per 1,000. Property and deception offences dominate at 1,819 (58% of cases), inflated by the Westfield Fountain Gate catchment, with 560 crimes against the person and 345 justice procedures offences. The skew tracks shopping-centre theft rather than street violence, but car break-in and shoplifting numbers run higher than the state median.
Is Narre Warren good for property investment?
Yields are weak: $360 weekly rent on a $750,000 median is roughly 2.5% gross, below the 3.5-4% target outer-Melbourne investors typically aim for. Vacancy of 3.7% sits above the 2-3% tight band, the pipeline is only 17 permits in 12 months, and rent grew 21.2% over a decade, below higher-demand corridor suburbs. The play is land for granny-flat or subdivision builds on 91.8% detached stock rather than rental cashflow, since overseas migration of +63 only just offsets internal outflow of -67.
How is Narre Warren's population changing?
Population sits at 27,689 and is growing only 0.98% per year (81 net new residents annually), well below Clyde North's 5%-plus growth and below the Melbourne South East 1.5-2% band. The forecast lifts to 8,975 by 2031 in the inner ABS unit, a 4.7% rise over five years. Trajectory is aging: senior share up 5.8 percentage points since 2011, working-age down 2.7 and youth down 2.3, while net internal migration of -67 is just barely offset by +63 net overseas arrivals.
What languages and cultural groups live in Narre Warren?
41.1% of residents were born overseas, 19.5 percentage points above the national share, with Sinhalese (471 home speakers), Mandarin (409), Punjabi (302), Arabic (226) and Persian (166) the top non-English languages. Religious split runs Christianity 11,212, Islam 2,729 and Buddhism 1,329, the highest Islamic share in the immediate corridor. Top ancestries beyond English (6,239) are Chinese (1,681) and Scottish (1,575), giving Narre Warren one of the more diverse profiles in established Casey.
What's the development outlook in Narre Warren?
The pipeline is quiet for a suburb of 27,689 residents: 17 planning permits in 12 months across 14.5 sq km, nearly all small subdivisions of 2-3 lots rather than infill projects. Net overseas migration of +63 a year and net internal migration of -67 leave total demand roughly flat, so council planning isn't pushing major rezoning. Most upside comes from granny-flat builds or duplex subdivisions on the 91.8% detached lots, which average 600-800 sqm in the older estate streets.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
Explore Narre Warren on the Map
View parcels, zoning overlays, DA applications, schools and more.
Open Interactive Map