VIC 3070 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Northcote

The single number that separates Northcote from its inner-north sisters is SEIFA IER decile 6, four notches above Brunswick's decile 2 and three above Coburg's decile 3. Paired with IEO decile 10 and IRSAD decile 10 (top 10% nationally), this signals a suburb that has already finished gentrifying rather than one still in motion: high education and high economic resources sitting together, instead of the prestige-cashflow chasm that defines Brunswick. Household income sits at the 87.7th percentile, the median house is $1,522,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), and prices have compounded 4.5% per year since 2013 from $820,000. Renters are 38.3% of households versus 49.1% next door, owner-occupiers are 61.7%, and the forecast trend has flattened to 0.85% annual population growth. 64.3% of residents hold a university degree, 34.2 percentage points above the national average. Northcote reads as the post-gentrification reference point: what Brunswick and Preston are projected to become once their renter cohorts age into ownership.

Northcote urban fabric map

Population

25,276

Median Age

37.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$2,287/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

53

Median House

$1.5M

Apr-Jun 2024

6.01 km²· 4,206.1 people/km²· Family income $3,181/wk

Northcote's buyer maths reads as a mature inner-Melbourne market with a correcting ceiling. The median house sits at $1,522,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), down 11.8% from the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $1,725,000, a meaningfully sharper pullback than Brunswick's 4.3% trim. That correction matters because the long arc still works: prices have compounded 4.5% per year over 14 years and the suburb is up 85.6% since 2013. Mortgage-to-income sits at 24.2%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and below Brunswick's burden, reflecting the higher household income percentile of 87.7. Stock is split 49.1% separate house, 27.4% semi-detached and 22.8% apartment, with 3-bedroom dwellings dominating at 36.8% and 4-bed-plus only 16.3%, so family-sized housing carries a scarcity premium. Entry buyers are pushed into the 32.8% 2-bedroom or 14.1% sub-2-bedroom stock, where the apartment-versus-terrace decision drives the actual budget.

For Buyers

Northcote's buyer maths reads as a mature inner-Melbourne market with a correcting ceiling. The median house sits at $1,522,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), down 11.8% from the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $1,725,000, a meaningfully sharper pullback than Brunswick's 4.3% trim. That correction matters because the long arc still works: prices have compounded 4.5% per year over 14 years and the suburb is up 85.6% since 2013. Mortgage-to-income sits at 24.2%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold and below Brunswick's burden, reflecting the higher household income percentile of 87.7. Stock is split 49.1% separate house, 27.4% semi-detached and 22.8% apartment, with 3-bedroom dwellings dominating at 36.8% and 4-bed-plus only 16.3%, so family-sized housing carries a scarcity premium. Entry buyers are pushed into the 32.8% 2-bedroom or 14.1% sub-2-bedroom stock, where the apartment-versus-terrace decision drives the actual budget.

For Investors

Northcote's rental thesis is the inner-north's lower-vacancy, higher-tenancy-quality option. Median rent is $475 per week against a 9.2% vacancy rate, both meaningfully tighter than Brunswick's 12.6% and Preston's 11%+ readings, with 38.3% of households renting rather than 49.1% next door. Rent-to-income for tenants sits at 20.8%, well below the 30% stress band, signalling a renter pool that can absorb increases. The 10-year rent-growth figure of 37.3% trails what is achievable in mid-gentrifying suburbs because Northcote has already captured most of its gentrification rerate, so investors are buying yield stability rather than thesis upside. Development supply is constrained: only 27 planning applications in the past 12 months across 6.01 sqkm, with most being 2-lot subdivisions rather than apartment towers. The forecast adds 94 residents per year through 2031, a 0.85% pace driven by 180 net overseas arrivals offsetting 66 net internal departures, suggesting demand without a supply flood.

Development Activity

Total DAs

76

Last 12 Months

53

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+307.7%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Other
19
Renovation / Extension
13
Subdivision
12
Demolition
7
Multi-Dwelling / Townhouse
4
New Dwelling
3
Garage / Carport / Shed
2
Deck / Pergola / Patio
2

Schools in Northcote iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Westgarth Primary School

ICSEA 1204 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 550 students

Northcote Primary School

ICSEA 1166 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 303 students

Northcote High School

ICSEA 1153 Secondary Government

7-12 · 1668 students

St Joseph's School

ICSEA 1110 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 190 students

Santa Maria College

ICSEA 1110 Secondary Catholic

7-12 · 779 students

Demographics

Northcote's demographic profile is the post-gentrification snapshot rather than a transition in progress. 25.2% of residents were born overseas, 3.6 percentage points above the national average and notably lower than Brunswick's 31.5%, signalling that the migrant-driven rerate cohort has rotated through. The dominant ancestry mix is English (8,668), Irish (4,077), Scottish (3,159) and Italian (2,342), with Greek the leading non-English language at 785 speakers, reflecting the post-war southern European wave that arrived before the professional class repriced the suburb. Median age is 37, three years younger than the national 40, but the senior share has barely moved (+0.2 percentage points over a decade) while the young-adult share dropped 1.3 points, signalling family formation rather than student churn. 64.3% hold a university degree, 34.2 percentage points above the national figure, and average household size is 2.3, below the national 2.5, consistent with childless professional couples being 29.5% of all families.

Age Distribution

0-14
15.0%
15-24
10.0%
25-44
36.3%
45-64
25.6%
65+
13.1%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
14.1%
2 bed
32.8%
3 bed
36.8%
4+ bed
16.3%

Dwelling Structure

49.1%

Houses

27.4%

Townhouse

22.8%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 30.8% Mortgage 30.9% Rent 38.3%

Northcote's tenure structure is the cleanest signal of completed gentrification in the inner north. 30.8% of households own outright, 30.9% hold a mortgage and 38.3% rent, a 61.7% owner-occupier share that runs well above Brunswick's 51% and 12 percentage points above Marrickville. The bedroom split is renter-and-couple shaped: 14.1% sub-2-bedroom, 32.8% 2-bedroom, 36.8% 3-bedroom and only 16.3% 4-bed-plus, so the family-house bracket carries the scarcity premium. Built form runs 49.1% separate house, 27.4% semi-detached and 22.8% apartment, a mix tilted toward terrace and townhouse rather than tower, reflecting the 1880s-1920s subdivision pattern and Darebin's planning controls. The price-to-income ratio at the $2,287 weekly household level pushes 12.8x, in line with the inner-north band but absorbed by the higher outright-ownership share. The 11.8% peak-to-latest correction is the housing-stress release valve: a 0% mortgage-stress flag confirms it.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,400

Rent / wk

$475

HH Size

2.3

Personal Income / wk

$1,166

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

9.2%

Unoccupied

1,039

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.8%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

24.2%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Greek
785
Italian
295
Mandarin
103
Arabic
98
German
84
Macedon
69

Ancestry

English
8,668
Irish
4,077
Scottish
3,159
Other
2,915
Italian
2,342
Greek
2,234

Household Composition

29.5%

Couples, no children

17,662

Total families

Economy & Employment

Northcote's economic profile resolves the SEIFA paradox that defines its inner-north sisters. Professional/Tech leads at 18.8% (2,303 workers), Healthcare at 17.3% (2,116), Education at 14.4% (1,761) and Public Administration at 9.2% (1,127), a knowledge-services concentration of 59.7% of employment versus a national knowledge-economy share around 35%. The occupations table confirms it: 6,680 Professionals and 2,566 Managers make up 56.5% of the workforce, with Clerical/Admin at 1,512 and Community/Personal at 1,265 filling the support layer. Unemployment sits at 4.2%, in line with the national rate, and full-time work absorbs 65% of employed residents, comparable to Brunswick. The SEIFA split itself is the story: IEO decile 10 paired with IER decile 6, a 4-decile gap that is genuinely modest compared with Brunswick's 8-decile chasm, and IRSAD decile 10 closes the loop, confirming that the prestige score is matched by economic resources rather than masking renter precarity.

Unemployment

5.1%

Labour Force

10,545

Unemployed

542

Quarterly Trend

Jun-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
10
Disadvantage
8
Economic resources
6
Education & occupation
10

Full-time

65.0%

Part-time

30.8%

Participation

68.2%

Employed

14,047

Occupations

Professionals 6,680
Managers 2,566
Clerical/Admin 1,512
Community/Personal 1,265
Sales 820
Labourers 505
Machinery/Drivers 256

Top Industries

Professional/Tech 18.8%
Healthcare 17.3%
Education 14.4%
Public Admin 9.2%
Retail 5.5%

University

64.3%

Postgraduate

22.1%

Born Overseas

25.2%

Dwellings

10,222

Transport to Work

Northcote sits in Melbourne's top inner-north livability tier with the strongest school data and the lowest crime among the four sister suburbs. Crime runs at 58.6 per 1,000 residents (1,482 incidents in 12 months), about half Brunswick's 112.4 and Coburg's 90.7, and roughly a third of Preston's 161.5. The schools register is unusually strong: Westgarth Primary at ICSEA 1204 (550 enrolment) is one of the highest-ranked government primaries in the inner north, Northcote Primary at ICSEA 1166 (303), Northcote High at ICSEA 1153 (1,668), with St Joseph's and Santa Maria College both at ICSEA 1110 in the Catholic sector. IRSAD decile 10 confirms the top-decile advantage profile. Transport leans car-heavy at 67.9% driver share with public transport only 9.1%, but the walked-cycled rate of 19.1% is notably high (more than double Coburg's), reflecting High Street's accessibility and the Merri Creek trail rather than the dispersed commuting pattern further north.

Drive

67.9%

Public Transport

9.1%

Walk / Cycle

19.1%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+0.85%/yr

(+94 people/yr)

Established

Northcote's growth trajectory has flattened in a way that distinguishes it from sisters still in their gentrification phase. The trend forecast is 0.85% annually, adding 94 residents per year through 2031 to reach 11,598 from a 2025 base of 11,026, well below the inner-north growth rates of the early 2010s and below the surrounding municipal pace. The gentrification score sits at 16 (flagged as not gentrifying in the model), but the operative reading is that the suburb is already gentrified: affordability dropped from 47.5% to 40.3% between 2011 and 2021 even as real incomes grew 31.5% and rent growth ran 37.3%, the income-affordability scissor that signals a wealthier cohort displacing the prior renter base. Population grew 15.3% over the decade and recovered from a -4.1% COVID dip back to baseline. Migration mix is 180 net overseas arrivals against 66 net internal departures per year, the same overseas-led pattern as Brunswick but at half the absolute pace.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+180

Net Internal / yr

-66

16

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Population +17% since 2011, COVID recovered (-4% dip → full recovery)

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

1,482

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

58.6

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
1,183
Crimes against the person
140
Justice procedures offences
86
Drug offences
39

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Northcote compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 0%
Household Income
Top 12%
Rent Level
Top 7%
Apartments
Top 16%
Renters
Top 18%
Uni Educated
Top 2%
Public Transport
Top 15%
Born Overseas
Top 20%
Density
Top 1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Northcote a good suburb to live in?

Yes, Northcote consistently ranks in the top inner-north tier, with IEO and IRSAD both at decile 10 (top 10% nationally), 64.3% university-educated residents and crime at 58.6 per 1,000, about half Brunswick's 112.4. Strong schools (Westgarth Primary ICSEA 1204) and 19.1% walking or cycling to work make it especially attractive for professional families.

What is the median house price in Northcote?

The median house price is $1,522,000 (Apr-Jun 2024), down 11.8% from the Jan-Mar 2024 peak of $1,725,000 but up 85.6% since 2013, representing 4.5% annual compound growth over 14 years. Median weekly rent sits at $475 with a 9.2% vacancy rate, tighter than Brunswick's 12.6%.

What schools are in Northcote?

Northcote has five main schools. Government primaries include Westgarth Primary (ICSEA 1204, 550 enrolment) and Northcote Primary (ICSEA 1166, 303). Northcote High School serves secondary with 1,668 students at ICSEA 1153. The Catholic sector adds St Joseph's School (ICSEA 1110) and Santa Maria College (ICSEA 1110, 779 enrolment).

Is Northcote safe?

Crime sits at 58.6 incidents per 1,000 residents (1,482 total in 12 months), notably lower than Brunswick (112.4), Coburg (90.7) and Preston (161.5). Property and deception offences dominate at 1,183 of cases, with crimes against the person at 140 and drug offences at just 39. Combined with IRSAD decile 10, Northcote ranks safer than the inner-north average.

Is Northcote good for property investment?

Northcote suits stability-focused investors rather than gentrification-thesis buyers. Median rent is $475 weekly with a 9.2% vacancy rate, and 10-year rent growth of 37.3% trails mid-gentrifying suburbs because the rerate has largely played out. The forecast adds 94 residents per year (0.85%) through 2031, with 180 net overseas arrivals offsetting 66 net internal departures.

How is Northcote's population changing?

The forecast pace is 0.85% annually, adding 94 residents per year to reach 11,598 by 2031 from 11,026 in 2025. Population grew 15.3% over the prior decade and recovered from a -4.1% COVID dip. The gentrification score reads 16 (not actively gentrifying), reflecting the suburb's already-mature wealth profile rather than ongoing transition.

How does Northcote compare to Brunswick?

Northcote is further along the gentrification ladder: IER decile 6 versus Brunswick's decile 2 means economic resources match the prestige score, with 61.7% owner-occupiers against Brunswick's 51%. Crime is 58.6 versus 112.4, vacancy 9.2% versus 12.6%, and the median house price runs $1,522,000 versus $1,292,500. Brunswick remains the active-gentrifying option while Northcote is the post-gentrification reference.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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