Pascoe Vale South
Active gentrification with a score of 55, the highest in this analysis cohort, defines Pascoe Vale South as a suburb in rapid transition. Real income growth of 38.0% over the decade is the strongest in this group, and the working-age share grew 4.3 percentage points while the senior share actually declined 3.4 points, the reverse of most aging suburbs. Italian (2,448) and English (2,467) ancestries sit nearly level as the top groups, with Greek (1,199) forming a strong third presence. SEIFA IRSAD decile 9 and a $1,050,000 median house price, down 19.2% from the 2021 peak of $1,299,500, create an unusual window: high socioeconomic advantage combined with a significant price correction. Population growth at 1.25% per year (233 persons) ranks among the fastest in this cohort.
Population
10,534
Median Age
39.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,246/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
28
Median House
$1.1M
Apr-Jun 2024
The $1,050,000 median house price has pulled back 19.2% from the 2021 peak of $1,299,500, a substantial correction that has reopened a buying window. Over 14 years, prices compounded at 3.5% CAGR from $650,500 in 2013, a 61.4% total gain. Detached houses at 80.5% dominate, with three-bedroom homes at 47.9% forming nearly half of all stock. Four-plus bedroom at 24.8% and two-bedroom at 24.9% provide range. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,167 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of just 22.3%, the lowest in this cohort for a suburb at this price tier, driven by household income at the 84.8 percentile. Mortgage holders at 38.2% are the largest tenure group, outstripping outright owners at 37.6%. The 20.4% couples without children is the lowest childless-couple share in this cohort, confirming a strongly family-oriented market.
For Buyers
The $1,050,000 median house price has pulled back 19.2% from the 2021 peak of $1,299,500, a substantial correction that has reopened a buying window. Over 14 years, prices compounded at 3.5% CAGR from $650,500 in 2013, a 61.4% total gain. Detached houses at 80.5% dominate, with three-bedroom homes at 47.9% forming nearly half of all stock. Four-plus bedroom at 24.8% and two-bedroom at 24.9% provide range. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,167 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of just 22.3%, the lowest in this cohort for a suburb at this price tier, driven by household income at the 84.8 percentile. Mortgage holders at 38.2% are the largest tenure group, outstripping outright owners at 37.6%. The 20.4% couples without children is the lowest childless-couple share in this cohort, confirming a strongly family-oriented market.
For Investors
Renters make up only 24.2% of households, a relatively thin tenant pool. Median weekly rent of $425 against the $1,050,000 median produces a gross yield around 2.1%, below the national average but above many Melbourne inner suburbs. The 7.5% vacancy rate is elevated and needs monitoring. Only 12 development applications in 12 months suggest limited new supply pressure. Rent growth of 27.0% over the decade is moderate. Net overseas migration averages 344 per year, providing structural demand, though the net internal outflow of 160 per year partially offsets it. The active gentrification (score 55) is the key investor signal: real income growth of 38.0% and a working-age share increase of 4.3 points over the decade indicate the demographic profile is upgrading rapidly. The 19.2% price correction from the 2021 peak may represent a value entry point if gentrification continues.
Development Activity
Total DAs
37
Last 12 Months
28
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+366.7%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Pascoe Vale South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Pascoe Vale South Primary School
Prep-6 · 308 students
Antonine College
Prep-12 · 927 students
Demographics
English (2,467) and Italian (2,448) ancestries sit almost level, with Greek (1,199), Irish (1,195) and a large Other category (1,352) following. Greek (413) and Italian (345) lead non-English languages, reflecting the suburb's deep Mediterranean migration history, with Arabic (113) and Mandarin (56) at smaller counts. The 50.8% university qualification rate sits 20.7 points above the national baseline. Median age of 39 runs 1 year below the national figure. The gentrification is visible in the demographics: senior share declined 3.4 points (unusual) while working-age share grew 4.3 points, meaning younger professionals are actively displacing older residents. Only 23.6% were born overseas, 2.0 points above the national baseline. Christianity (5,690) dominates religious affiliation, with Islam (298) and Buddhism (157). The 12.5% volunteering rate is slightly below the national average.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
80.5%
Houses
11.0%
Townhouse
8.3%
Apartment
Tenure
Mortgage holders at 38.2% and outright owners at 37.6% together dominate at 75.8%, with renters at just 24.2%. Detached houses at 80.5% define the housing fabric, with semi-detached at 11.0% and apartments at 8.3%. Three-bedroom homes at 47.9% nearly half of all stock. Over 14 years, prices compounded at 3.5% CAGR from $650,500 to $1,050,000, a 61.4% gain, though the 19.2% correction from the 2021 peak of $1,299,500 shows the market has given back significant gains. Price volatility is evident: from $1,105,000 (Oct-Dec 2023) to $1,295,000 (Jan-Mar 2024) back down to $1,050,000 (Apr-Jun 2024). Rent-to-income at 18.9% and mortgage-to-income at 22.3% both sit well below stress thresholds, driven by the strong household income at the 84.8 percentile. The affordability ratio improved substantially from 55.1% to 41.2% over the decade.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,167
Rent / wk
$425
HH Size
2.7
Personal Income / wk
$953
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
7.5%
Unoccupied
307
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.9%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.3%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
20.4%
Couples, no children
8,711
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare (15.0%), Education (14.5%), Professional/Tech (12.7%), Construction (9.2%) and Public Administration (8.5%) lead employment. The three-way split between health, education and professional services reflects a commuter suburb feeding Melbourne's CBD and northern corridor institutions. Professionals lead occupations at 1,789, with Managers at 940 and Clerical/Admin at 833. The SEIFA profile is strong: IRSAD decile 9, IRSD decile 9, IEO decile 8 and IER decile 8. All four indices sit high, with the overall IRSAD at decile 9 placing Pascoe Vale South above most of Melbourne's northern suburbs. Unemployment at 3.9% is below the national average, and the 64.2% participation rate is near the national figure. The Construction share at 9.2% is notable and likely driven by the active subdivision and renovation cycle fuelling gentrification.
Unemployment
4.6%
Labour Force
6,611
Unemployed
307
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.4%
Part-time
32.7%
Participation
64.2%
Employed
5,316
Occupations
Top Industries
University
50.8%
Postgraduate
14.0%
Born Overseas
23.6%
Dwellings
3,788
Transport to Work
Car dependence is high at 85.4%, with only 3.3% using public transport and 4.4% walking or cycling. Crime is low: 469 total offences at 44.5 per 1,000 residents, well below the Melbourne metropolitan median. Property and deception offences lead at 324 (69% of total), crimes against the person at 67 and drug offences at 26. Pascoe Vale South Primary School (ICSEA 1,108, 308 students, government) scores 108 points above the national benchmark. Antonine College (ICSEA 982, 927 students, Catholic combined) sits slightly below the benchmark, suggesting a gap between the government primary and the Catholic secondary option. The IRSD decile 9 (very low relative disadvantage) is consistent with the low crime reading.
Drive
85.4%
Public Transport
3.3%
Walk / Cycle
4.4%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.25%/yr
(+233 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation growth at 1.25% per year, adding 233 persons annually, is among the fastest in this cohort. The medium forecast projects 20,059 by 2031, up from 18,893 in 2026. The suburb grew 21.9% over the past decade, well above the Melbourne average. COVID caused a 3.1% population dip, but the suburb fully recovered with a 5.5% rebound. Net overseas migration averages 344 per year, the primary driver, while internal migration shows a net outflow of 160. The active gentrification (score 55) is evidenced by the 38.0% real income growth over the decade, far above the national average. The senior share declined 3.4 points while working-age share grew 4.3 points, the only suburb in this cohort where the demographic age structure is actually getting younger rather than older.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+344
Net Internal / yr
-160
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Population +27% since 2011, Net internal outflow -160/yr, Strong overseas inflow +344/yr, COVID recovered (-3% dip → full recovery)
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
469
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
44.5
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Pascoe Vale South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Pascoe Vale South a good suburb to live in?
Pascoe Vale South scores IRSAD decile 9, placing it in the top 10% nationally. With 80.5% detached houses, a crime rate of 44.5 per 1,000 (below Melbourne's median), and mortgage stress at 22.3%, it suits families in Melbourne's north. The $1,050,000 median is down 19.2% from the 2021 peak, and the suburb is actively gentrifying with a score of 55.
What is the median house price in Pascoe Vale South?
The median house price is $1,050,000 as of April-June 2024, down 19.2% from the peak of $1,299,500 in 2021. Over 14 years, prices compounded at 3.5% CAGR from $650,500, a 61.4% total gain. Median weekly rent is $425 and monthly mortgage repayments sit at $2,167, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.3%.
What schools are in Pascoe Vale South?
Pascoe Vale South has 2 schools. Pascoe Vale South Primary (government, 308 students) has an ICSEA of 1,108, sitting 108 points above the national benchmark. Antonine College (Catholic combined, 927 students) has an ICSEA of 982, slightly below the 1,000 benchmark. The IEO decile 8 confirms above-average educational attainment among adult residents.
Is Pascoe Vale South safe?
Pascoe Vale South recorded 469 offences at a rate of 44.5 per 1,000 residents, below the Melbourne metropolitan median. Property offences account for 324 incidents (69% of total), crimes against the person at 67 and drug offences at 26. IRSD decile 9 (very low disadvantage) is consistent with the below-average crime reading.
Is Pascoe Vale South good for property investment?
Renters at 24.2% provide a thin tenant pool. Median weekly rent of $425 on a $1,050,000 median gives roughly 2.1% gross yield, below the national average. The 7.5% vacancy rate is elevated. The key investment signal is active gentrification (score 55) with 38.0% real income growth over the decade. The 19.2% price correction from the 2021 peak may offer a value entry if gentrification continues.
How is Pascoe Vale South's population changing?
Population grows at 1.25% per year, adding 233 persons annually, among the fastest in this cohort. The suburb grew 21.9% over the past decade. The medium forecast projects 20,059 by 2031. Uniquely, the senior share declined 3.4 points while working-age share grew 4.3 points, meaning the suburb is getting younger as gentrification draws professionals. Real income growth of 38.0% is the highest in this group.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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