Patterson Lakes
Prices dropped 22.1% from the Q1 2024 peak of $1,578,500 to $1,230,000 by mid-2024, one of the sharpest recent corrections in Melbourne's bayside corridor and well above the national median house price. Despite this, the 14-year CAGR of 4.7% (from $647,500 in 2013) and 90.0% cumulative growth show the longer trend remains positive. The suburb is aging, with the senior share up 5.1 percentage points over the decade, and the 91.1% car-driver commute rate is one of the highest in metropolitan Melbourne, signalling near-total car dependency for a suburb just 35 km from the CBD.
Population
7,793
Median Age
46.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,932/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
13
Median House
$1.2M
Apr-Jun 2024
The $1,230,000 median is 22.1% below the Q1 2024 peak, which may represent a correction-phase entry point. Detached houses (59.9%) and semi-detached (24.7%) dominate, with 40.2% being 3-bedroom and 38.6% being 4+ bedroom homes. Mortgage repayments of $2,100/month consume 25.1% of household income, comfortably below stress levels. Patterson Lakes Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1061, 521 enrolled) scores above the national median. The 83.5% residential retention rate (only 16.5% moved) indicates a stable, settled community that buyers can join with confidence.
For Buyers
The $1,230,000 median is 22.1% below the Q1 2024 peak, which may represent a correction-phase entry point. Detached houses (59.9%) and semi-detached (24.7%) dominate, with 40.2% being 3-bedroom and 38.6% being 4+ bedroom homes. Mortgage repayments of $2,100/month consume 25.1% of household income, comfortably below stress levels. Patterson Lakes Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1061, 521 enrolled) scores above the national median. The 83.5% residential retention rate (only 16.5% moved) indicates a stable, settled community that buyers can join with confidence.
For Investors
The 16.0% renting rate and 8.3% vacancy rate present a challenging pairing: the tenant pool is small and vacancies are elevated. Weekly rent of $430 against a $1.23M median gives approximately 1.8% gross yield, below most investment thresholds. However, the 32.1% rent growth over the past decade and a 4.7% long-term CAGR suggest this is a capital growth play. Only 13 development applications in 12 months (mostly tree removals) indicate almost no new housing supply, which protects existing asset values through scarcity.
Development Activity
Total DAs
14
Last 12 Months
13
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
—
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Patterson Lakes iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Patterson Lakes Primary School
Prep-6 · 521 students
Demographics
The median age of 46 is 6 years above the national median, and the aging trajectory (senior share +5.1pp, working-age share -2.8pp) indicates continued graying. University attainment at 33.3% is 3.2 percentage points above the national average. English ancestry (2,874) dominates, with Irish (846) and Italian (456) as secondary groups. Mandarin (101 speakers) is the most common non-English language, though only 27.5% of residents were born overseas. Professionals (852) and managers (775) lead the occupation profile, collectively representing 42% of the workforce.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
59.9%
Houses
24.7%
Townhouse
15.3%
Apartment
Tenure
Prices have been volatile: $1,550,000 in Q4 2023, $1,578,500 in Q1 2024, then $1,230,000 in Q2 2024, placing the suburb above the Melbourne metropolitan median. Over 14 years, the CAGR of 4.7% from $647,500 to $1,230,000 represents 90.0% total growth. Ownership is heavily tilted toward owners: 40.8% outright and 43.3% mortgaged, with only 16.0% renting. The housing mix is transitional: 59.9% detached, 24.7% semi-detached, and 15.3% apartments. Three-bedroom (40.2%) and 4+ bedroom (38.6%) stock account for nearly 79% of dwellings, suited to the established-family demographic.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,100
Rent / wk
$430
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$871
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
8.3%
Unoccupied
279
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.3%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
25.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
28.0%
Couples, no children
6,486
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare (16.2%) and construction (13.8%) are the top 2 employment sectors, followed by education (9.8%) and manufacturing (9.2%). The manufacturing share is above the national average, reflecting the broader Frankston-Dandenong industrial corridor. Professionals (852) and managers (775) together form 42% of occupations, but clerical/admin (626) and sales (397) indicate a substantial mid-tier white-collar segment. Unemployment at 4.0% is near the state average. SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 places Patterson Lakes in the upper-middle band nationally, above average but not in the affluent tier.
Unemployment
5.4%
Labour Force
7,222
Unemployed
388
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
62.8%
Part-time
33.2%
Participation
61.0%
Employed
3,837
Occupations
Top Industries
University
33.3%
Postgraduate
7.6%
Born Overseas
27.5%
Dwellings
3,066
Transport to Work
Patterson Lakes Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1061, 521 enrolled) is the sole school within the suburb, scoring above the national median. Public transport usage at 1.7% is extremely low, with 91.1% of residents driving, one of the highest car-dependency rates in Melbourne. Crime at 68.7 per 1,000 is moderate, with property offences (314 of 535 total) accounting for 59% of incidents. The 11.5% volunteering rate is slightly below the national average. SEIFA decile 7 across all indices indicates a solid upper-middle socio-economic profile.
Drive
91.1%
Public Transport
1.7%
Walk / Cycle
2.3%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.53%/yr
(+66 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation growth is slow at 0.53% annually (66 people/year), below the national average, projected to reach 12,919 by 2031 from 12,478 in 2025. The suburb grew only 7.6% over the past decade. Overseas migration (+110/year) offsets internal outflows (-64/year). The aging trajectory is clear: senior share rose 5.1 percentage points, the steepest shift in the suburb's profile. Gentrification score is 0, confirming no socio-economic displacement. Affordability has held stable with mortgage-to-income moving marginally from 49.0% to 47.2%, essentially flat over the decade.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+110
Net Internal / yr
-64
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
535
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
68.7
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Patterson Lakes compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Patterson Lakes a good suburb to live in?
For families seeking bayside living with owner-occupier stability, Patterson Lakes delivers: 84.1% owner-occupied (40.8% outright + 43.3% mortgaged), 83.5% residential retention, and a primary school scoring ICSEA 1061. The trade-off is near-total car dependency (91.1% drive) and a moderate crime rate of 68.7 per 1,000.
What is the median house price in Patterson Lakes?
The median house price is $1,230,000 as of mid-2024, down 22.1% from the Q1 2024 peak of $1,578,500. Over 14 years, the CAGR is 4.7% from $647,500 in 2013, totalling 90.0% growth.
What schools are in Patterson Lakes?
Patterson Lakes Primary School (Government, ICSEA 1061, 521 enrolled) is the only school within the suburb. Its ICSEA exceeds the national median of 1000 by 61 points. Secondary students typically travel to schools in nearby Carrum or Chelsea.
Is Patterson Lakes safe?
The crime rate of 68.7 per 1,000 residents is moderate for metropolitan Melbourne. Property and deception offences account for 59% of incidents (314 of 535 total). Crimes against the person numbered 103, approximately 13.2 per 1,000 residents.
Is Patterson Lakes good for property investment?
The 16.0% renter rate and 8.3% vacancy rate make it a weak rental market. Gross yield is approximately 1.8% ($430/week on $1.23M). The play is capital growth: 4.7% CAGR over 14 years and virtually no new supply (13 DAs, mostly tree removals). The 22.1% price correction from peak may offer a re-entry window.
How is Patterson Lakes's population changing?
Growth is slow at 0.53% annually (66 people/year), forecast to reach 12,919 by 2031. The suburb grew only 7.6% over the past decade. The most significant shift is aging: senior share rose 5.1 percentage points while working-age share fell 2.8 percentage points. Overseas migration (+110/year) narrowly offsets domestic outflows (-64/year).
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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