VIC 3478 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

St Arnaud

At a median house price of $242,500 and a population of just 2,318, St Arnaud stands as one of Victoria's most affordable rural service towns, though affordability comes with trade-offs. The suburb scores decile 2 on IRSAD and decile 3 on IRSD, placing it among the bottom quartile nationally for socioeconomic advantage. What makes it structurally distinctive is the combination of 50.9% outright home ownership, well above the national average, with a median age of 52, which is 12 years older than the national figure. Rent has grown 40% over the measured period despite a 13.3% vacancy rate, signalling tension between chronic undersupply in lettable stock and a thinning renter pool.

St Arnaud urban fabric map

Population

2,318

Median Age

52.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$920/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

1

Median House

$242K

Apr-Jun 2024

68.97 km²· 33.6 people/km²· Family income $1,325/wk

The $242,500 median house price is sharply lower than comparable Victorian regional centres, and the price-to-income ratio sits at a comfortable level given monthly mortgage repayments averaging $867 and a mortgage-to-income ratio of 21.8%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Prices peaked at $310,000 in 2022 and are now 21.8% off that peak, a notable correction. However, the long-run picture remains positive: from $140,000 in 2013 to $242,500 in 2024, that is a 73.2% gain, a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% over 14 years. Detached houses dominate at 94.4% of the stock, and the majority of dwellings (54.3%) have three bedrooms, making this a practical owner-occupier market. With 50.9% of dwellings owned outright, competition from heavily leveraged buyers is lower than in suburban Melbourne.

For Buyers

The $242,500 median house price is sharply lower than comparable Victorian regional centres, and the price-to-income ratio sits at a comfortable level given monthly mortgage repayments averaging $867 and a mortgage-to-income ratio of 21.8%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Prices peaked at $310,000 in 2022 and are now 21.8% off that peak, a notable correction. However, the long-run picture remains positive: from $140,000 in 2013 to $242,500 in 2024, that is a 73.2% gain, a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% over 14 years. Detached houses dominate at 94.4% of the stock, and the majority of dwellings (54.3%) have three bedrooms, making this a practical owner-occupier market. With 50.9% of dwellings owned outright, competition from heavily leveraged buyers is lower than in suburban Melbourne.

For Investors

The investment case for St Arnaud requires clear eyes. Weekly rent of $188 against a $242,500 median implies a gross yield around 4.0%, which is above many Melbourne metro suburbs, but the 13.3% vacancy rate is the key risk: one in eight rentable dwellings sits empty, which is well above healthy market thresholds. The forecast population trend runs at minus 0.5% annually, and net internal migration averages minus 13 per year, meaning the renter pool is shrinking rather than growing. Development activity is minimal, with just 1 application in the past 12 months, so new supply is not the problem. Rent has grown 40% over the period, a genuine positive, but sustaining that trajectory against a population that is forecast to fall from around 3,394 in 2025 to 3,244 by 2031 will be difficult.

Development Activity

Total DAs

5

Last 12 Months

1

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

0.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Subdivision
2

Schools in St Arnaud iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

St Patrick's School

ICSEA 1011 Primary Catholic

Prep-6 · 102 students

St Arnaud Secondary College

ICSEA 975 Secondary Government

7-12 · 168 students

St Arnaud Primary School

ICSEA 958 Primary Government

Prep-6 · 110 students

Demographics

The median age of 52 sits 12.0 years above the national figure, making this one of Victoria's oldest community profiles. The aging trajectory is confirmed by a senior share that rose 6.5 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 2.3 points. Only 6.9% of residents were born overseas, compared to the national average of about 21.6%, a gap of 14.7 percentage points, which reflects both low migration inflows and low population turnover: 85.1% of residents stayed in the same dwelling over five years. University qualifications at 15.2% run 14.9 points below the national figure. Ancestry is predominantly Anglo-Celtic, led by English (1,034), Scottish (295) and Irish (290), with Christianity accounting for the vast majority of religious affiliation. Average household size is 2.0, half a person below the national average of 2.5.

Age Distribution

0-14
13.7%
15-24
9.3%
25-44
18.1%
45-64
26.6%
65+
32.1%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
5.6%
2 bed
19.9%
3 bed
54.3%
4+ bed
20.2%

Dwelling Structure

94.4%

Houses

4.7%

Townhouse

0.3%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 50.9% Mortgage 28.4% Rent 20.6%

Tenure in St Arnaud is unusually weighted toward outright ownership: 50.9% of dwellings are owned without a mortgage, compared to the national norm of around 31%, while only 28.4% carry a mortgage and 20.6% rent. This pattern reflects the older demographic, where retirees and long-term residents have paid down their debt. The stock is almost entirely separate houses at 94.4%, with semi-detached at 4.7% and apartments at just 0.3%. Three-bedroom homes make up 54.3% of the stock and 4-plus bedroom dwellings 20.2%. From a valuation standpoint, prices climbed 73.2% from $140,000 in 2013 to the current $242,500, compounding at 4.0% per year over 14 years, though the 21.8% pullback from the 2022 peak of $310,000 shows the rural property cycle is real. Rent stress is absent at 20.4% rent-to-income, as is mortgage stress at 21.8%.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$867

Rent / wk

$188

HH Size

2.0

Personal Income / wk

$560

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

13.3%

Unoccupied

160

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

20.4%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

21.8%

Community Profile

Ancestry

English
1,034
Scottish
295
Irish
290
Ancestry NS
176
German
91
Other
61

Household Composition

36.5%

Couples, no children

1,551

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare is by far the dominant local employer at 26.8% of the workforce (136 workers), a proportion that reflects both the town's role as a regional service centre and the older resident base that generates healthcare demand. Agriculture follows at 12.8% (65 workers), consistent with the surrounding farming landscape, then Retail at 8.9%, Education at 7.9% and Public Admin at 6.7%. Labourers are the largest occupational group (176 workers), ahead of Community and Personal Service workers (147), Managers (125) and Professionals (108). The unemployment rate is 4.2%, broadly in line with national levels, but the participation rate is only 44.3%, well below the national average of around 66%, because the aging population has a large cohort not in the labour force (881 people). Personal weekly income of $560 and household income in the 9.3rd percentile nationally reflect the low-wage, service-sector economic base. SEIFA scores confirm this: IRSAD sits at decile 2 nationally.

Unemployment

1.8%

Labour Force

1,632

Unemployed

29

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
2
Disadvantage
3
Economic resources
3
Education & occupation
3

Full-time

58.3%

Part-time

37.5%

Participation

44.3%

Employed

849

Occupations

Labourers 176
Community/Personal 147
Managers 125
Professionals 108
Clerical/Admin 88
Sales 83
Machinery/Drivers 61

Top Industries

Healthcare 26.8%
Agriculture 12.8%
Retail 8.9%
Education 7.9%
Public Admin 6.7%

University

15.2%

Postgraduate

1.7%

Born Overseas

6.9%

Dwellings

1,038

Transport to Work

Car dependence is extreme: 82.3% of residents drive to work, well above the national average, and only 0.5% use public transport, reflecting the rural geography with limited transit infrastructure. An unusually high 11.5% walk or cycle, suggesting the compact town centre is walkable for local errands. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary in this dataset. The crime rate of 107.9 offences per 1,000 residents is higher than many comparable regional towns, with property and deception offences (88 incidents) and crimes against the person (77) as the two largest categories. IRSAD sits at decile 2 nationally, placing the suburb in the bottom quintile for advantage. On the positive side, the housing stress indicators are benign: rent-to-income at 20.4% and mortgage-to-income at 21.8% both sit below the 30% stress line. A volunteering rate of 25.2% indicates strong community participation relative to most areas.

Drive

82.3%

Public Transport

0.5%

Walk / Cycle

11.5%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.5%/yr

(-17 people/yr)

Established

St Arnaud is on a measured but consistent decline. Annual population change runs at minus 0.5% (roughly minus 17 persons per year), and the 10-year population change was minus 3.8%. The medium forecast projects the broader area population falling from around 3,394 in 2025 to 3,244 by 2031. Net internal migration averages minus 13 per year, offset only partially by overseas arrivals of 8 per year. The gentrification score is 33 out of 100 with a classification of early signs, but this has not yet translated into measurable price momentum: prices remain 21.8% below the 2022 peak. Affordability has improved, with the ratio moving from 32.5% in 2011 to 30.5% in 2021, and real income growth of 21.3% over the decade adds some buffer. Rent growth of 40% over the same period is the most positive signal for property holders, though it likely reflects supply contraction more than demand growth.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Balanced

Net Overseas / yr

+8

Net Internal / yr

-13

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

Safety & Crime

Total Offences

250

Year ending June 2024

Rate per 1,000 People

107.9

Offence Categories

Property and deception offences
88
Crimes against the person
77
Justice procedures offences
62
Public order and security offences
21

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How St Arnaud compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 20%
Household Income
Bottom 9%
Rent Level
Bottom 29%
Apartments
Bottom 4%
Renters
Top 49%
Uni Educated
Bottom 20%
Public Transport
Bottom 4%
Born Overseas
Bottom 14%
Density
Top 33%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is St Arnaud a good suburb to live in?

St Arnaud suits buyers who prioritise affordability and low housing stress over urban amenity. The median house price of $242,500 is well below comparable Victorian towns, and mortgage-to-income sits at 21.8%, below the 30% stress threshold. Trade-offs include a decile 2 IRSAD score, limited public transport (0.5% usage), and a crime rate of 107.9 per 1,000 residents.

What is the median house price in St Arnaud?

The median house price is $242,500, recorded for the April to June 2024 quarter. That is 21.8% below the 2022 peak of $310,000 and represents a 73.2% gain from $140,000 in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% over 14 years. Monthly mortgage repayments average $867. Weekly rent is $188.

What schools are in St Arnaud?

No schools are recorded inside the St Arnaud suburb boundary in this dataset. The town has 2,318 residents and a median age of 52, with a relatively small school-age population. University qualifications locally stand at 15.2%, which is 14.9 percentage points below the national figure, suggesting families with children needing schools should verify local options directly.

Is St Arnaud safe?

St Arnaud recorded 250 total offences in the measured period, a rate of 107.9 per 1,000 residents, which is above what lower-density rural towns typically record. The largest categories are property and deception offences (88 incidents) and crimes against the person (77 incidents). The IRSD disadvantage decile of 3 places the suburb in the lower quartile nationally, a factor that correlates with higher crime rates in regional areas.

Is St Arnaud good for property investment?

The $188 weekly rent against a $242,500 median implies a gross yield around 4.0%, above Melbourne metro norms. However, the 13.3% vacancy rate is a serious concern, well above healthy thresholds, and the population is forecast to fall from around 3,394 in 2025 to 3,244 by 2031 at minus 0.5% per year. Rent grew 40% over the measured period, but sustaining that in a shrinking rental pool is uncertain.

How is St Arnaud's population changing?

Population is declining at minus 0.5% annually, or roughly minus 17 persons per year. The 10-year change was minus 3.8%, and the medium forecast projects the broader area continuing to fall from around 3,394 in 2025 to 3,244 by 2031. Net internal migration averages minus 13 per year, with only 8 overseas arrivals per year partially offsetting the outflow. The demographic trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 6.5 points over the decade.

What industries employ people in St Arnaud?

Healthcare is the largest employer at 26.8% of the local workforce (136 workers), reflecting the town's role as a regional service hub and its older resident profile. Agriculture follows at 12.8% (65 workers), then Retail at 8.9%, Education at 7.9% and Public Admin at 6.7%. The participation rate is only 44.3%, well below the national average, because 881 residents are not in the labour force.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

Explore St Arnaud on the Map

View parcels, zoning overlays, DA applications, schools and more.

Open Interactive Map

More Suburbs in VIC