Upper Ferntree Gully
At 97% detached houses and a median age of 41, Upper Ferntree Gully sits one year above the national average and reads as a settled, owner-occupier enclave at the foot of the Dandenong Ranges. Household income reaches the 76.3rd percentile nationally, yet rents average only $369 per week because just 14.3% of residents rent, well below the typical suburban share. Since 2013, the median house price has nearly doubled from $435,000 to $844,200, a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% over 14 years. Population growth is slow at 0.22% annually, driven mainly by overseas migration of roughly 100 persons per year while internal migration shows a net outflow of 139 per year.
Population
3,417
Median Age
41.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,039/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
5
Median House
$844K
Apr-Jun 2024
The median house price of $844,200 as of April to June 2024 is lower than the peak of $925,000 reached in July to September 2023, sitting 8.7% below that high point. For buyers, monthly mortgage repayments average $2,000 on a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.7%, well below the 30% stress threshold, making affordability relatively stable compared to inner-city Melbourne markets. Detached houses make up 97% of the housing stock, so buyers face a clear market with consistent product type. Three-bedroom homes are the dominant configuration at 48.1%, followed by 4-plus bedroom homes at 34.2%. The 37.1% outright ownership rate signals long tenure and low turnover, which means supply is limited and buyers compete for the few properties that do come to market.
For Buyers
The median house price of $844,200 as of April to June 2024 is lower than the peak of $925,000 reached in July to September 2023, sitting 8.7% below that high point. For buyers, monthly mortgage repayments average $2,000 on a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.7%, well below the 30% stress threshold, making affordability relatively stable compared to inner-city Melbourne markets. Detached houses make up 97% of the housing stock, so buyers face a clear market with consistent product type. Three-bedroom homes are the dominant configuration at 48.1%, followed by 4-plus bedroom homes at 34.2%. The 37.1% outright ownership rate signals long tenure and low turnover, which means supply is limited and buyers compete for the few properties that do come to market.
For Investors
Rental demand in Upper Ferntree Gully is thin by national standards: only 14.3% of residents rent, well below the national average, and the vacancy rate sits at 4.4%, which is elevated enough to indicate landlords face competition for tenants. Weekly rent of $369 against an $844,200 median implies a gross yield under 2.3%, low for a suburban market. Net overseas migration of roughly 100 persons per year provides a modest demand floor, but the net internal outflow of 139 persons annually is larger, leaving the suburb with slow overall population growth of 0.22% per year. Development activity is very low at only 2 applications in the past 12 months, limiting new supply pressure but also signalling limited investor development interest. The 14-year CAGR of 4.8% reflects steady long-term capital growth rather than speculative gains.
Development Activity
Total DAs
7
Last 12 Months
5
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+400.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Upper Ferntree Gully iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Upper Ferntree Gully Primary School
Prep-6 · 80 students
Demographics
The population of 3,417 is Anglo-Celtic in ancestry, with English (1,411), Irish (439) and Scottish (426) the three leading groups. The overseas-born share of 19.9% is 1.7 percentage points below the national figure, consistent with the suburb's established, low-turnover character: 84.5% of residents stayed in the same address over the measured period. The median age of 41 is 1 year above the national average, and the demographic trajectory is aging, with the senior share rising 4.8 points and the working-age share falling 1.5 points over the decade. University qualifications reach 34.0%, which is 3.9 percentage points above the national figure, and the occupational profile is led by Professionals (464) and Managers (249), reflecting a knowledge-worker resident base. Average household size of 2.6 is 0.1 above national.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
97.0%
Houses
1.5%
Townhouse
1.6%
Apartment
Tenure
The long-run price story is strong: from $435,000 in 2013 to $844,200 in April to June 2024, prices have compounded at 4.8% per year over 14 years. The peak of $925,000 in July to September 2023 remains 8.7% above current levels, so the market is in a mild retreat from its high. Ownership dominates tenure: 37.1% own outright, 48.6% hold a mortgage, and just 14.3% rent, a split that reflects the suburb's stable, long-established resident base rather than a transient or investor-driven market. Stock is almost entirely detached houses at 97%, with apartments at only 1.6% and semi-detached at 1.5%. Mortgage-to-income at 22.7% and rent-to-income at 18.1% are both comfortably below stress thresholds, which is notable given household income is in the 76.3rd percentile nationally.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,000
Rent / wk
$369
HH Size
2.6
Personal Income / wk
$847
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.4%
Unoccupied
57
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.1%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
25.1%
Couples, no children
2,744
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the dominant employment sector at 18.4% of residents (233 workers), followed by Construction at 13.1% (166) and Education at 12.5% (159), then Professional and Technical services at 11.4% (145). This mix is more diverse and trades-oriented than the white-collar inner-suburbs of Melbourne. The unemployment rate is 3.6% with a participation rate of 61.3%, and the full-time employment rate of 61.4% is solid. By occupation, Professionals lead with 464 workers but Community and Personal service workers are close to Managers in volume, at 227 versus 249, reflecting the healthcare and education weighting. Real income grew 11.1% over the decade and household income sits in the 76.3rd percentile nationally, above average but not in the top tier.
Unemployment
4.1%
Labour Force
9,047
Unemployed
367
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
61.4%
Part-time
35.0%
Participation
61.3%
Employed
1,675
Occupations
Top Industries
University
34.0%
Postgraduate
9.1%
Born Overseas
19.9%
Dwellings
1,223
Transport to Work
Car dependence is high: 88.5% of residents drive to work, and only 4.9% use public transport, well below Melbourne metropolitan averages. Walking and cycling account for just 2.0%. No schools are recorded within the Upper Ferntree Gully boundary in the dataset, so families depend on nearby Ferntree Gully and Boronia institutions. The crime rate of 65.3 incidents per 1,000 residents is based on 223 total incidents, with property and deception offences the largest category at 118 cases. The volunteering rate of 15.9% and a need-for-assistance rate of 8.1% (264 residents) suggest a community with reasonable social support capacity. Rent-to-income at 18.1% and mortgage-to-income at 22.7% both sit below stress thresholds, pointing to financial stability relative to many comparable Victorian suburbs.
Drive
88.5%
Public Transport
4.9%
Walk / Cycle
2.0%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.22%/yr
(+34 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation has grown slowly from roughly 14,960 in the early census years to 15,630 in 2025, an increase of 4.3% over 10 years, which is below the pace of most growing Melbourne outer suburbs. The annual trend is just 34 additional persons per year, or 0.22%. Overseas migration adds approximately 100 persons annually but is offset by a net internal outflow of 139, meaning the suburb loses more residents to other parts of Australia than it gains. Medium forecasts project the population reaching approximately 15,803 by 2031. The gentrification score is low at 14, classified as not gentrifying, because net internal outflow limits the demographic churn associated with gentrification. Rent growth of 35.0% over the period shows price appreciation outpacing wage growth of 11.1% in real terms.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+100
Net Internal / yr
-139
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -139/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
223
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
65.3
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Upper Ferntree Gully compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Upper Ferntree Gully a good suburb to live in?
Upper Ferntree Gully suits owner-occupier families seeking a quiet, detached-house suburb at the edge of the Dandenong Ranges. Household income sits in the 76.3rd percentile nationally and mortgage-to-income is 22.7%, below the 30% stress threshold. The trade-off is high car dependence at 88.5% and limited public transport at 4.9% of commuters.
What is the median house price in Upper Ferntree Gully?
The median house price is $844,200 for April to June 2024, down 8.7% from the peak of $925,000 in July to September 2023. Since 2013 prices have risen from $435,000, a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% over 14 years. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,000 and weekly rent is $369.
What schools are in Upper Ferntree Gully?
No schools are recorded within the Upper Ferntree Gully boundary in this dataset. Residents access schools in neighbouring Ferntree Gully and Boronia. Despite this, 34.0% of residents hold university qualifications, 3.9 percentage points above the national figure.
Is Upper Ferntree Gully safe?
The total recorded crime count is 223 incidents, giving a rate of 65.3 per 1,000 residents. Property and deception offences account for 118 of these, the largest single category. Crimes against the person total 36 cases. The volunteering rate of 15.9% and low renter share of 14.3% are consistent with a stable, low-turnover community.
Is Upper Ferntree Gully good for property investment?
The 14-year compound annual growth rate of 4.8% and price doubling from $435,000 to $844,200 support a capital growth thesis. However, only 14.3% of residents rent and the vacancy rate is 4.4%, indicating limited rental demand. Gross yield is below 2.3% on current prices, making yield-focused investment difficult compared to higher-renter suburbs.
How is Upper Ferntree Gully's population changing?
Population is growing slowly at 0.22% annually, adding roughly 34 persons per year. The suburb reached 15,630 residents in 2025, up 4.3% over 10 years. Net internal outflow of 139 persons per year offsets overseas migration of approximately 100 per year. Medium forecasts project around 15,803 residents by 2031.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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