Warrnambool
Victoria's major south-west coastal regional city sits 270km west of Melbourne with 31,308 residents, anchored by South West Healthcare, Deakin University's Warrnambool campus, and the dairy belt that supplies Saputo and Fonterra processors. The $600,000 median house price runs 41% above inland regional VIC peers like Mildura ($426k) and Shepparton ($443k), reflecting a coastal premium that doesn't exist in the Goulburn Valley or Sunraysia. Healthcare absorbs 26.2% of jobs, nearly double the 13.6% national norm, and crime sits at 99.6 incidents per 1,000 residents, roughly half of Mildura's 195 and Shepparton's 192 rates. SEIFA decile 4 disadvantage and a 28.6% university attainment rate (only 1.5pp below national) place Warrnambool closer to Geelong's profile than to inland regional VIC.
Population
31,308
Median Age
42.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,385/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
42
Median House
$600K
Apr-Jun 2024
The $600,000 median house price (Apr-Jun 2024) sits 2.6% below the October 2023 peak of $616,000, a shallow pullback compared with Shepparton's 7.7% retreat or Mildura's 8.2% dip from peak. Long-run growth has been 84.6% since 2013 (4.5% CAGR over 14 years), tracking metro inflation while delivering coastal-lifestyle stock that landlocked regional VIC cannot offer. Detached houses dominate at 82.2% of dwellings, with 47% three-bedroom and 27.7% four-plus configurations. Mortgage repayments average $1,408/month against a $1,385 weekly household income, putting mortgage-to-income at 23.5%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Buyers get coastal access at roughly two-thirds of metro Melbourne's $920k median.
For Buyers
The $600,000 median house price (Apr-Jun 2024) sits 2.6% below the October 2023 peak of $616,000, a shallow pullback compared with Shepparton's 7.7% retreat or Mildura's 8.2% dip from peak. Long-run growth has been 84.6% since 2013 (4.5% CAGR over 14 years), tracking metro inflation while delivering coastal-lifestyle stock that landlocked regional VIC cannot offer. Detached houses dominate at 82.2% of dwellings, with 47% three-bedroom and 27.7% four-plus configurations. Mortgage repayments average $1,408/month against a $1,385 weekly household income, putting mortgage-to-income at 23.5%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Buyers get coastal access at roughly two-thirds of metro Melbourne's $920k median.
For Investors
Renter share runs 30.7%, near the national average and notably lower than Shepparton's 39.1% or Mildura's 38.5%, reflecting a more owner-occupied market with deeper local roots. Median rent of $290/week against the $600k median produces a 2.51% gross yield, thinner than Mildura's 3.4% or Shepparton's 3.17%, the coastal price premium compresses cash returns. Rent has grown 32.7% over the decade to 2021, above the 15.3% real income growth, so affordability is tightening despite the affordability trend label. Vacancy at 8.2% is elevated and similar to Shepparton's 7.9%, signalling supply isn't tight. With 37 DA lodgements over 12 months and net overseas migration of +135/year offsetting -41 internal departures, the investor case rests on lifestyle-driven owner-occupier demand rather than yield.
Development Activity
Total DAs
96
Last 12 Months
42
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+121.1%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Warrnambool iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Our Lady Help of Christians School
Prep-6 · 470 students
King's College
Prep-12 · 276 students
St Joseph's School
Prep-6 · 622 students
Emmanuel College Warrnambool
7-12 · 1340 students
Merrivale Primary School
Prep-6 · 184 students
Demographics
Warrnambool is one of Victoria's most Anglo regional cities: 10.7% overseas-born sits 10.9 percentage points below the national rate, contrasting sharply with Shepparton's 24.1% or even Mildura's 18.6%. English (12,828), Irish (5,932), and Scottish (3,944) ancestries dominate, and Christianity remains the religion of 14,920 residents while non-Christian faiths combined account for fewer than 500 people. Median age 42 runs 2.0 years above national, and the senior share has risen 5.2 percentage points over the decade while the young-adult share fell 2.4pp, a clear aging trajectory. University attainment at 28.6% is just 1.5pp below national, materially higher than Shepparton's 24.2% or Mildura's 22.4%, reflecting Deakin's anchor effect and the healthcare workforce.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
82.2%
Houses
12.5%
Townhouse
5.0%
Apartment
Tenure
Prices climbed from $325,000 in 2013 to $600,000 by mid-2024, an 84.6% gain at 4.5% CAGR over 14 years, broadly matching Shepparton's 4.3% trajectory but starting from a higher base. Tenure splits 38.1% owned outright, 31.2% with mortgage, and 30.7% renting, with the outright share notably above younger mortgage-belt suburbs and reflecting an established population. Dwelling stock is overwhelmingly low-density: 82.2% separate houses, 12.5% semi-detached, only 5.0% apartments, with 47% three-bedroom and 27.7% four-plus configurations supporting family households. The 2.6% pullback from peak is the mildest among comparable VIC regional cities, suggesting coastal demand has held up better than inland markets like Mildura or Shepparton.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,408
Rent / wk
$290
HH Size
2.3
Personal Income / wk
$749
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
8.2%
Unoccupied
1,129
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
20.9%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.5%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
30.6%
Couples, no children
23,037
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare anchors 26.2% of jobs (2,531 workers), driven by South West Healthcare's regional hospital catchment, with Education adding 13.3% (1,288 workers) thanks to Deakin's Warrnambool campus and a deep school network. Combined, public-sector adjacent roles account for roughly 40% of employment, structurally similar to Shepparton's 39.8% but with a larger education component. Construction (8.8%), Manufacturing (7.7%, primarily dairy processing at Fonterra and Warrnambool Cheese & Butter), and Retail (7.3%) round out the top five. SEIFA tells a balanced story: IRSD decile 5 and IER decile 5 (both mid-pack nationally), with IEO decile 4 reflecting a workforce mix of professionals (3,119) alongside labourers (2,119). Unemployment at 3.4% sits below the 4.5% national rate, a tighter labour market than Shepparton's 5.9% or Mildura's 6.4%.
Unemployment
1.9%
Labour Force
11,793
Unemployed
229
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
59.0%
Part-time
37.6%
Participation
56.1%
Employed
14,074
Occupations
Top Industries
University
28.6%
Postgraduate
6.0%
Born Overseas
10.7%
Dwellings
12,549
Transport to Work
Car dependency runs 85.7%, far above the 60% metro norm and similar to Shepparton's 85.2%, with public transport at 0.6% reflecting a regional centre 270km from Melbourne with a V/Line train taking around 3h20m. Active transport (walking and cycling) at 6.1% is modestly higher than inland regional peers, supported by the city's coastal-walking infrastructure. Schools span a meaningful ICSEA range: Our Lady Help of Christians (Catholic primary, ICSEA 1,084, 470 students) and King's College (independent combined, ICSEA 1,083, 276 students) sit at the top, while Warrnambool Primary scores ICSEA 963, a 121-point gap that's narrower than Shepparton's 294-point school divide. Crime at 99.6 incidents per 1,000 is roughly half of Mildura's 195 or Shepparton's 192, though property and deception offences (1,233) still account for 40% of total incidents.
Drive
85.7%
Public Transport
0.6%
Walk / Cycle
6.1%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.98%/yr
(+226 people/yr)
EstablishedForecast growth runs 0.98% annually (+226 persons/year), tracking just above Shepparton's 0.9% but well below Geelong's 1.9% peri-coastal pace. The migration mechanics are decisive: overseas migration contributes +135/year while internal migration nets -41/year, so growth depends on international arrivals rather than Melburnians chasing a sea-change. Population has climbed 14.7% over the decade, with the medium forecast taking the suburb to 24,618 by 2031. Gentrification scores 33 (early signs), with senior share rising 5.2pp and young-adult share falling 2.4pp, an aging profile rather than a young-professional influx. Real income grew 15.3% over the decade while rent surged 32.7%, so wage gains haven't kept pace with rental costs even as headline affordability has improved 2.7pp.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+135
Net Internal / yr
-41
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +16% since 2011
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
3,118
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
99.6
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Warrnambool compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Warrnambool a good suburb to live in?
Warrnambool suits buyers wanting coastal regional living without metro prices. The $600,000 median is 41% above Mildura's $426k but two-thirds of metro Melbourne's $920k. Crime at 99.6 per 1,000 is roughly half of Shepparton's 192, mortgage-to-income runs 23.5% (below the 30% stress line), and 10 schools serve the catchment. Car dependency at 85.7% is the main trade-off.
What is the median house price in Warrnambool?
The median house price was $600,000 in the April-June 2024 quarter, down only 2.6% from the October 2023 peak of $616,000, a shallower pullback than Shepparton (-7.7%) or Mildura (-8.2%). Long-run growth has been 84.6% since 2013 ($325k to $600k), a 4.5% CAGR over 14 years. Mortgage repayments average $1,408/month.
What schools are in Warrnambool?
Warrnambool has 10 schools spanning Catholic, government, and independent sectors. Our Lady Help of Christians (Catholic primary, ICSEA 1,084) and King's College (independent combined, ICSEA 1,083) lead on ICSEA. Emmanuel College Warrnambool (Catholic secondary, 1,340 students) and Warrnambool College (government secondary, 1,070 students) are the largest. Brauer Secondary College (866 students, ICSEA 982) serves the public catchment alongside several primaries.
Is Warrnambool safe?
Crime in Warrnambool runs at 99.6 incidents per 1,000 residents, roughly half of Mildura's 195 and Shepparton's 192 rates, though still elevated versus metro Melbourne's average near 60. Property and deception offences (1,233) account for 40% of the 3,118 total incidents, followed by justice procedure offences (814) and crimes against the person (600). Lower-crime pockets exist within the 65 sq km boundary.
Is Warrnambool good for property investment?
Warrnambool's investment case is moderate. Median rent of $290/week against the $600k median produces a 2.51% gross yield, thinner than Mildura's 3.4% due to the coastal price premium. The 8.2% vacancy rate is elevated, similar to Shepparton's 7.9%, and the 30.7% renter share is below national average. Rent grew 32.7% over the decade, above the 15.3% real income growth, supporting yield improvement over time.
How is Warrnambool's population changing?
Warrnambool grew 14.7% over the decade and is forecast to reach 24,618 by 2031, adding around 226 residents annually (0.98% growth). Net overseas migration (+135/year) offsets net internal departures (-41/year), so growth depends on international arrivals. The aging trajectory is pronounced: senior share rose 5.2 percentage points over the decade while young-adult share fell 2.4pp, sustaining demand for healthcare and aged care.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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