Winter Valley
At a median age of 29, Winter Valley skews 11 years younger than the national figure, making it one of the younger suburbs in greater Ballarat. The household income sits at the 75th percentile nationally, while 73% of dwellings have four or more bedrooms, which is unusually high compared to metropolitan averages. All dwellings are separate houses, with 58.5% of residents carrying a mortgage, a rate well above the state average that reflects a suburb actively being built out rather than established. The crime rate of 120.1 per 1,000 residents sits higher than typical outer-suburban norms, driven primarily by property and deception offences at 261 incidents.
Population
3,440
Median Age
29.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,013/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
8
Median House
$537K
Apr-Jun 2024
The median house price sits at $537,000 as of April-June 2024, down from a peak of $617,500 in 2022, a correction of 13% from peak. That places it well below Melbourne's median and below the wider Ballarat area's benchmark suburbs. Mortgage repayments average $1,600 per month, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 18.4%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold. The stock is entirely separate houses, and 73% have four or more bedrooms, meaning buyers get substantially more floor space than they would at equivalent prices in state capital suburbs. Outright ownership at 16.9% is low relative to more established neighbourhoods, consistent with a suburb where most buyers are relatively recent arrivals still paying down loans.
For Buyers
The median house price sits at $537,000 as of April-June 2024, down from a peak of $617,500 in 2022, a correction of 13% from peak. That places it well below Melbourne's median and below the wider Ballarat area's benchmark suburbs. Mortgage repayments average $1,600 per month, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 18.4%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold. The stock is entirely separate houses, and 73% have four or more bedrooms, meaning buyers get substantially more floor space than they would at equivalent prices in state capital suburbs. Outright ownership at 16.9% is low relative to more established neighbourhoods, consistent with a suburb where most buyers are relatively recent arrivals still paying down loans.
For Investors
The weekly rent of $390 against a $537,000 median implies a gross yield of around 3.8%, higher than inner-Melbourne benchmarks. The vacancy rate sits at 4.1%, slightly elevated compared to a healthy 2-3% market, suggesting mild oversupply. The renter share is 24.6%, below the national average, which means landlord competition is lower but so is the depth of the tenant pool. Development activity recorded 8 applications in the past 12 months, including multi-lot subdivision permits, pointing to continued land release. The suburb's household income at the 75th percentile nationally underpins tenant quality and ability to service rent. Price growth from $344,500 in 2013 to $537,000 now is a 56% rise, representing a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% over 14 years.
Development Activity
Total DAs
33
Last 12 Months
8
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+33.3%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Demographics
The median age of 29 is 11 years below the national figure, one of the most distinctive features of Winter Valley's demographic profile. This young base is tied to the suburb's status as a family formation zone: 1,550 couples with children make up the largest household type, while couples without children account for 22.5%. Average household size of 2.9 is 0.4 above national, consistent with families rather than singles or retirees. Overseas-born residents make up just 11.5%, which is 10.1 percentage points below the national rate, and ancestry is strongly Anglo-Celtic, led by English (1,371), Scottish (393) and Irish (381). The university qualification rate of 30.6% is 0.5 points above national, broadly in line with national norms despite the regional location.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
100.0%
Houses
N/A
Townhouse
N/A
Apartment
Tenure
Every dwelling in Winter Valley is a separate house, making it one of the most detached-dominant suburbs in VIC. The bedroom profile tilts heavily toward large homes: 73% have four or more bedrooms, 25.9% have three, and just 1% have two, a distribution that reflects the post-2010 greenfield estate pattern rather than older inner suburban stock. Tenure splits at 58.5% mortgaged, 16.9% owned outright, and 24.6% renting. The tilt toward mortgage holders over outright owners indicates the suburb is still being absorbed by first and second home buyers. The $537,000 median is 13% below the 2022 peak of $617,500 but 56% above the 2013 starting price of $344,500. Rent-to-income sits at 19.4%, below the 30% stress threshold, meaning tenants can service current rents comfortably relative to local incomes.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,600
Rent / wk
$390
HH Size
2.9
Personal Income / wk
$921
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.1%
Unoccupied
50
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
19.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
18.4%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
22.5%
Couples, no children
2,906
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the single largest industry at 24.8% of employed residents (317 workers), nearly double the second-placed Education sector at 12.9% (165 workers). Construction follows at 11.9% (152), Retail at 8.5% (108) and Public Admin at 7.7% (99). The dominance of Healthcare over Manufacturing or Logistics points to employment in Ballarat's hospital and aged care network rather than industrial work. By occupation, Professionals lead at 374, followed by Community/Personal at 271 and Clerical/Admin at 238. The unemployment rate of 3.8% is low and close to full employment. The full-time employment rate of 64.1% and participation rate of 71.7% are both healthy, reflecting the young working-age profile. Weekly household income of $2,013 places the suburb at the 75th income percentile nationally.
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.1%
Part-time
32.1%
Participation
71.7%
Employed
1,755
Occupations
Top Industries
University
30.6%
Postgraduate
5.9%
Born Overseas
11.5%
Dwellings
1,168
Transport to Work
Car dependence is nearly total: 92.7% of residents drive to work, while only 1.2% walk or cycle, well above the national car-use rate and reflecting the limited public transport infrastructure serving outer Ballarat. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary, so families rely on nearby Ballarat-area schools. The crime rate of 120.1 incidents per 1,000 residents is elevated compared to outer suburban norms, with property and deception offences accounting for 261 of 413 total incidents, a pattern common in areas with high proportion of unoccupied new homes during construction phases. Housing stress is low: mortgage-to-income at 18.4% and rent-to-income at 19.4% are both below the 30% stress threshold, making the suburb genuinely affordable relative to household incomes that sit at the 75th percentile nationally.
Drive
92.7%
Public Transport
N/A
Walk / Cycle
1.2%
Work from Home
N/A
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
413
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
120.1
Offence Categories
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Winter Valley compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Winter Valley a good suburb to live in?
Winter Valley suits young families well. The median age of 29 is 11 years below national, household income sits at the 75th percentile nationally, and mortgage-to-income at 18.4% is comfortably below the 30% stress threshold. The main trade-offs are near-total car dependence at 92.7% and a crime rate of 120.1 per 1,000 residents, above typical outer-suburban levels.
What is the median house price in Winter Valley?
The median house price is $537,000 as of April-June 2024, down 13% from a 2022 peak of $617,500 but up 56% from $344,500 in 2013. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,600 and weekly rent averages $390. All dwellings are separate houses, with 73% having four or more bedrooms.
What schools are in Winter Valley?
No schools are recorded inside the Winter Valley suburb boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring Ballarat suburbs. Despite the regional location, 30.6% of residents hold university qualifications, which is 0.5 points above the national figure.
Is Winter Valley safe?
The total crime rate is 120.1 incidents per 1,000 residents, with 413 incidents recorded. Property and deception offences are the largest category at 261, followed by crimes against the person at 67. This rate is higher than typical outer-suburban benchmarks and is worth factoring into purchasing decisions.
Is Winter Valley good for property investment?
The gross rental yield is approximately 3.8%, based on $390 weekly rent against a $537,000 median, higher than inner-Melbourne benchmarks. The vacancy rate of 4.1% is slightly elevated. Long-run price growth of 3.2% CAGR over 14 years is moderate. Ongoing subdivision activity and a high 39.3% turnover rate suggest continued demand but also sustained new supply.
How is Winter Valley's population changing?
Winter Valley shows active growth signals. The turnover rate of 39.3% means nearly 40% of residents arrived within the last five years, well above settled outer suburbs. Eight development applications were lodged in the past 12 months, including multi-lot subdivisions, and the 100% detached housing stock is consistent with an estate still in active land release.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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