Bonnells Bay
With 94.1% of dwellings being separate houses and 40.7% owned outright, Bonnells Bay on Lake Macquarie is one of NSW's most owner-occupier-dominant suburbs for its size. The population of 4,066 is aging faster than state trends, with the senior share up 3.2 points over a decade, and the median age of 42 sits 2 years above national. Despite a SEIFA IRSAD decile of 4, below average nationally, the suburb added 22% to its population over 10 years and rent has grown 42.9% in the same period. At $859,000, the median house price delivers more dwelling space than the Sydney market at similar or higher prices, with 51.7% of homes having 4 or more bedrooms.
Population
4,066
Median Age
42.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,460/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
28
Median House
$859K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price is $859,000, with prices rising from $795,000 in 2024 to $868,000 in 2025, a 9.2% gain in one year. That growth rate is notable given the suburb's relatively affordable base compared to Greater Sydney. Separate houses account for 94.1% of the stock, which is unusually high, with apartments at just 0.8%, so buyers are almost exclusively competing for detached dwellings. The dominant bedroom type is 4-plus at 51.7%, with 3-bedroom homes at 39.1%. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,820, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.8%, which sits below the 30% stress threshold and lower than many comparable NSW lakeside markets. Outright owners at 40.7% outnumber mortgage holders at 32.8%, a profile consistent with long-term residents rather than recent first-home buyers.
For Buyers
The median house price is $859,000, with prices rising from $795,000 in 2024 to $868,000 in 2025, a 9.2% gain in one year. That growth rate is notable given the suburb's relatively affordable base compared to Greater Sydney. Separate houses account for 94.1% of the stock, which is unusually high, with apartments at just 0.8%, so buyers are almost exclusively competing for detached dwellings. The dominant bedroom type is 4-plus at 51.7%, with 3-bedroom homes at 39.1%. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,820, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.8%, which sits below the 30% stress threshold and lower than many comparable NSW lakeside markets. Outright owners at 40.7% outnumber mortgage holders at 32.8%, a profile consistent with long-term residents rather than recent first-home buyers.
For Investors
Bonnells Bay presents a mixed case for investors. The vacancy rate of 8.5% is elevated, signalling rental oversupply risk. Weekly rent of $400 against a $859,000 median implies a gross yield near 2.4%, modest but above inner-city Sydney norms. The renter share of 26.5% is lower than the national average, reflecting the owner-occupier character. On the demand side, net internal migration averages 56 arrivals per year and net overseas migration adds 41, making growth balanced rather than dependent on one driver. Development activity shows 26 applications in the past 12 months including a multi-dwelling housing application, suggesting modest new supply. The 42.9% rent growth over the decade outpaces income growth of 13.2%, pointing to tightening fundamentals even as current vacancy remains high.
Development Activity
Total DAs
178
Last 12 Months
28
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-17.6%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Bonnells Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Bonnells Bay Public School
K-6 · 376 students
Demographics
The median age of 42 is 2 years above the national figure, and the suburb is on an aging trajectory, with the senior share rising 3.2 points and the working-age share falling 1.9 points over the decade. University qualifications reach 22.7%, which is 7.4 percentage points below the national rate, consistent with the SEIFA IEO decile 4 score for education and occupation. Overseas-born residents account for 13.5% of the population, 8.1 points below national, and ancestry leans heavily Anglo-Celtic: English (1,733), Scottish (461) and Irish (426) are the top three. The average household size of 2.5 matches the national figure. Couples with children (1,228) outnumber couples without children (1,047), reflecting the family-oriented, detached-housing character. The volunteering rate of 15.1% indicates reasonable community participation.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
94.1%
Houses
5.0%
Townhouse
0.8%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure is split among outright owners at 40.7%, mortgage holders at 32.8% and renters at 26.5%. The unusually high outright ownership rate, above the national average, reflects a long-settled, older population rather than recent market turnover. The stock is almost entirely detached houses at 94.1%, with semi-detached homes at 5.0% and apartments at just 0.8%, making this one of the most detached-house-dominant suburbs in NSW. Four-plus bedroom homes dominate at 51.7%, with 3-bedroom homes at 39.1%. The median house price rose 9.2% from $795,000 in 2024 to $868,000 in 2025. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.8% and rent-to-income of 27.4% both sit below stress thresholds, indicating housing costs are manageable relative to local incomes despite an income household percentile of 44.8, below the national median.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,820
Rent / wk
$400
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$685
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
8.5%
Unoccupied
144
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.4%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
28.8%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
31.4%
Couples, no children
3,335
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare dominates the local employment mix at 24.5% of the workforce, or 279 workers, well above the national industry share, likely reflecting the suburb's older demographic profile. Construction follows at 11.7% and Education at 11.1%, with Professional and Technical services at 6.5% and Retail at 6.1%. By occupation, Professionals lead at 293 workers, followed by Clerical and Admin at 247 and Community and Personal services at 232. The unemployment rate is 6.2%, above the typical low-disadvantage benchmark, and the participation rate of 48.5% is low, partly because 1,390 residents are outside the labour force, consistent with the aging trajectory. The SEIFA IRSD decile of 5 places Bonnells Bay at the national median for relative disadvantage, while the IER decile of 6 suggests moderate economic resources, above the disadvantage level the IRSAD decile 4 might imply alone.
Unemployment
5.2%
Labour Force
5,031
Unemployed
261
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
60.1%
Part-time
33.7%
Participation
48.5%
Employed
1,506
Occupations
Top Industries
University
22.7%
Postgraduate
5.2%
Born Overseas
13.5%
Dwellings
1,554
Transport to Work
Car dependence is extreme: 93.0% of residents drive to work, which is among the highest rates nationally, and only 1.5% use public transport, well below the national average. This reflects the suburban lakeside geography with limited rail or bus frequency. No schools are recorded inside the Bonnells Bay boundary in this dataset, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring suburbs such as Morisset or Toronto. The SEIFA IRSAD decile of 4 places the suburb below the national median for relative advantage and disadvantage. Housing stress measures remain contained, with mortgage-to-income at 28.8% and rent-to-income at 27.4%, both below the 30% stress threshold. The need-for-assistance rate of 6.9%, covering 269 residents, is elevated compared to higher-decile suburbs and aligns with the aging population profile and below-median SEIFA scores.
Drive
93.0%
Public Transport
1.5%
Walk / Cycle
1.4%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.31%/yr
(+134 people/yr)
EstablishedBonnells Bay has grown 22.1% over the past decade, adding roughly 740 residents, well above the rate of many established NSW suburbs. The medium forecast projects the broader SA2 population growing from 10,266 in 2025 to 11,046 by 2031, an annual rate of 1.31% or around 134 additional persons per year. Net internal migration averages 56 per year and net overseas migration 41, making the growth driver balanced. The gentrification score of 30 puts the suburb in the early signs stage, supported by signals including 24% population growth since 2011, net internal migration of plus 56 per year, and a volunteering rate that has shifted from 8% to 15%. Rent has grown 42.9% over the decade against real income growth of 13.2%, a divergence that points to increasing demand pressure relative to supply. Affordability has remained stable, moving from 55.0% in 2011 to 56.4% in 2021.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+41
Net Internal / yr
+56
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Population +24% since 2011, Net internal migration +56/yr, Accelerating: 8% → 15%
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Bonnells Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Bonnells Bay a good suburb to live in?
Bonnells Bay suits owner-occupiers who value space and affordability over urban density. The median house price of $859,000 buys a detached house, with 51.7% of homes having 4 or more bedrooms. Housing costs are manageable, with mortgage-to-income at 28.8%. The trade-off is strong car dependence at 93.0% and a SEIFA IRSAD decile of 4, below the national median.
What is the median house price in Bonnells Bay?
The median house price is $859,000 as of 2024-2025. Prices rose 9.2% from $795,000 in 2024 to $868,000 in 2025. Weekly rent averages $400 and monthly mortgage repayments run around $1,820, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 28.8%, below the 30% stress threshold.
What schools are in Bonnells Bay?
No schools are recorded inside the Bonnells Bay boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs such as Morisset and Toronto. Locally, 22.7% of residents hold university qualifications, which is 7.4 percentage points below the national figure.
Is Bonnells Bay safe?
Detailed crime statistics are not available for Bonnells Bay in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores SEIFA IRSD decile 5, at the national median for relative disadvantage. The need-for-assistance rate of 6.9% covers 269 of 4,066 residents, slightly elevated compared to lower-disadvantage suburbs, consistent with the older median age of 42.
Is Bonnells Bay good for property investment?
The suburb posted 9.2% price growth in one year and rent growth of 42.9% over the decade. Gross rental yield is approximately 2.4% at $400 per week against an $859,000 median. The vacancy rate of 8.5% is elevated, signalling rental oversupply risk. Net migration of 97 persons per year provides demand support, and 26 development applications in 12 months indicate modest ongoing activity.
How is Bonnells Bay's population changing?
The population has grown 22.1% over 10 years. Annual growth runs at 1.31%, adding around 134 persons per year to the broader area. Medium forecasts project growth from 10,266 in 2025 to 11,046 by 2031. The demographic trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 3.2 points and the working-age share down 1.9 points over the decade.
How much development is happening in Bonnells Bay?
There were 26 development applications lodged in the past 12 months, including a multi-dwelling housing application and several new dwelling house approvals. This is moderate activity for a suburb of 4,066 residents, consistent with steady rather than rapid new supply growth alongside 1.31% annual population growth.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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