Carlingford
Postcode 2118 hosts James Ruse Agricultural High School, the country's top-performing selective school with an ICSEA of 1222 that pulls in students from across western Sydney, and that one fact reshapes everything else about Carlingford's housing economics. The suburb's $843,000 median house price sits 26% below Castle Hill's $1.14M and 50% below Baulkham Hills' $1.675M, yet 59.9% of residents hold university qualifications, 29.8 percentage points above the national rate, and 56.8% were born overseas. Chinese ancestry dominates at 11,395 residents (about 41% of the 28,044 population), with Korean a distinctive secondary anchor. Population has grown 27.1% over the decade on overseas migration of +442 net annually, even as 144 residents per year leave for other parts of Australia.
Population
28,044
Median Age
38.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,084/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
176
Median House
$843K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
Carlingford's $843,000 house median undercuts every neighbouring Hills suburb meaningfully: 26% below Castle Hill, 50% below Baulkham Hills, and just 4% below Epping's $882,750 despite Carlingford carrying a far higher share of detached stock (58.1% vs Epping's 42.6%). 4-bedroom homes account for 40.1% of dwellings and 3-bedroom another 32.7%, so detached buyers actually get more square footage per dollar than the headline median suggests. Mortgage-to-income at 27.7% stays below the 30% stress threshold and roughly tracks Baulkham Hills, while affordability scoring improved from 68.2 in 2011 to 61.1 in 2021, a 7-point gain. The local price index lifted 30.8% in the latest year to a $1.045M peak, faster than Castle Hill which actually declined 7.8%. The James Ruse catchment premium is real but bounded by the fact that the school is selective entry and not zoned, so buyers pay for proximity rather than guaranteed access.
For Buyers
Carlingford's $843,000 house median undercuts every neighbouring Hills suburb meaningfully: 26% below Castle Hill, 50% below Baulkham Hills, and just 4% below Epping's $882,750 despite Carlingford carrying a far higher share of detached stock (58.1% vs Epping's 42.6%). 4-bedroom homes account for 40.1% of dwellings and 3-bedroom another 32.7%, so detached buyers actually get more square footage per dollar than the headline median suggests. Mortgage-to-income at 27.7% stays below the 30% stress threshold and roughly tracks Baulkham Hills, while affordability scoring improved from 68.2 in 2011 to 61.1 in 2021, a 7-point gain. The local price index lifted 30.8% in the latest year to a $1.045M peak, faster than Castle Hill which actually declined 7.8%. The James Ruse catchment premium is real but bounded by the fact that the school is selective entry and not zoned, so buyers pay for proximity rather than guaranteed access.
For Investors
Yields run thin and supply is loosening. Weekly rents of $500 imply a gross yield around 3.1% on the $843,000 median, lower than Hurstville's 3.1% on a smaller capital base and below Ryde's 2.8%. The 8.3% vacancy rate flagged in the brief is materially higher than Sydney's 1-2% norm and points to recent apartment completions absorbing more slowly than expected, since 29.5% of stock is already apartments and a further 12.5% semi-detached. 166 development applications lodged in the last 12 months keep the pipeline active, including dual occupancy and subdivision filings that typical Hills District suburbs see less frequently. The investor case is migration-driven rather than yield-driven: overseas inflow runs +442 per year against -144 internal outflow, and rent growth has tracked at 19.5% over the decade. Stay clear of standard apartment stock until vacancy normalises below the state average.
Development Activity
Total DAs
972
Last 12 Months
176
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
0.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carlingford iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
James Ruse Agricultural High School
7-12 · 857 students
Murray Farm Public School
K-6 · 787 students
St Gerard's Catholic Primary School
K-6 · 262 students
Carlingford West Public School
K-6 · 1636 students
Roselea Public School
K-6 · 306 students
Demographics
Demographically Carlingford reads like a quieter, more house-dominant Epping. 56.8% born overseas runs 35.2 percentage points above national, lower than Epping's 62.3% and Hurstville's 70.8% but well above Castle Hill's 45.4%. The ancestry split is the standout: Chinese 11,395 (41% of population) leads by an unusually wide margin, with Korean 1,925 as a meaningful third anchor ahead of Indian 1,686, a profile closer to Epping's Korean-significant mix than to Hurstville. Mandarin (2,990 speakers) and Cantonese (1,792) split the Chinese diaspora roughly 5:3, suggesting a mainland-leaning composition compared with Hurstville's Cantonese tilt. University attainment of 59.9% sits 29.8 percentage points above the national rate, lower than Epping's 69.0% but ahead of Castle Hill's 56.4%. Median age of 38 runs 2 years below the national median, with average household size of 3.0 reflecting the family-house orientation rather than the unit market.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
58.1%
Houses
12.5%
Townhouse
29.5%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure is unusually balanced: 31.3% own outright, 34.9% carry a mortgage, and 33.8% rent, a near-even three-way split that points to a suburb absorbing migration without dislodging existing owners. 58.1% separate houses against 29.5% apartments and 12.5% semi-detached gives Carlingford a markedly more house-weighted profile than Epping (42.6% houses) right next door, which explains why the $843,000 median compresses against Epping's $882,750 despite Epping's higher SEIFA scores. Bedroom mix tilts large: 40.1% have 4 or more bedrooms, 32.7% three, 23.5% two, and only 3.7% one or zero, the inverse of Ryde's apartment-dominated profile. Price-to-household-income works out to roughly 7.8 times on $108k annual household income, lower than Castle Hill's near 11x but above the national 6.5x average. The latest 30.8% one-year jump to a $1.045M peak lifted the suburb out of its decade-long affordability improvement.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,500
Rent / wk
$500
HH Size
3.0
Personal Income / wk
$791
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
8.3%
Unoccupied
825
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.0%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
19.1%
Couples, no children
24,842
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads industry composition at 17.2% of jobs, professional and tech 14.3%, education 10.1%, finance 8.9%, and construction 7.0%, a service-economy mix that mirrors the wider Northern Sydney workforce. Among the 10,698 employed residents, 4,365 work as professionals and 1,735 as managers, so 57% of the local workforce sits in the top two ANZSCO bands, a ratio that helps explain how a 79th percentile household income of $108,000 supports a $843,000 housing market. SEIFA scores stack consistently in the upper band: IEO decile 9, IRSAD decile 9, IER decile 8, and IRSD decile 8, all sitting roughly one decile below Epping's perfect 10s but above Baulkham Hills on IRSAD. Unemployment at 5.9% runs slightly above the national rate of 4.9%, with full-time employment at 66.4%. The 29.8 percentage point university premium over the national average is the clearest signal that Carlingford's economy is built on high-skill professional services rather than local trade.
Unemployment
2.0%
Labour Force
6,926
Unemployed
136
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
66.4%
Part-time
27.7%
Participation
51.2%
Employed
10,698
Occupations
Top Industries
University
59.9%
Postgraduate
20.1%
Born Overseas
56.8%
Dwellings
9,102
Transport to Work
James Ruse Agricultural High School (ICSEA 1222, enrolment 857) is the headline anchor and ranks as the country's highest-performing selective school, with Murray Farm Public (ICSEA 1142, 787 students) and St Gerard's Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1140, 262 students) reinforcing the academic depth. Carlingford West Public, the suburb's largest at 1,636 students, posts an ICSEA of 1119, and even the lowest-ranked option, Cumberland High, scores 1060, all of which sit above the 1000 national average. SEIFA decile 9 on advantage and education places the suburb in the top 10% nationally, roughly equivalent to Baulkham Hills and one notch below Epping's perfect 10. Transport leans car-dependent: 85.7% drive while only 5.5% take public transport, lower public-transport share than Epping where the new Metro Northwest changed mode share. The Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 extension is planned to terminate at Carlingford station, which would lift transit access materially once delivered.
Drive
85.7%
Public Transport
5.5%
Walk / Cycle
2.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.61%/yr
(+337 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is forecast to grow 1.61% annually, adding around 337 residents per year through 2031 to reach 22,765 on the medium trajectory, a decelerating pace compared with the 27.1% increase already booked over the prior decade. The migration mechanics are unambiguous: overseas inflow averages +442 per year while internal outflow runs -144, a net pattern identical to Epping's settlement curve. The gentrification score of 36 places Carlingford in early-signs territory, well below Epping or Hurstville which have already mid-cycled, and the brief flags that the rate of population change accelerated from 7% to 24% across recent windows. Real household income lifted 8.5% over the decade, lagging Epping's 16.9% gain, and rent growth of 19.5% sits below the Sydney middle-ring average. The one outlier is the recent 30.8% house-price jump in a single year, faster than Castle Hill's outright decline of 7.8%, which suggests buyer flow is rotating from more expensive Hills suburbs toward Carlingford on relative affordability grounds.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+442
Net Internal / yr
-144
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Population +32% since 2011, Net internal outflow -144/yr, Strong overseas inflow +442/yr, Accelerating: 7% → 24%
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carlingford compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carlingford a good suburb to live in?
Carlingford ranks in SEIFA decile 9 for both advantage (IRSAD 1100) and education (IEO 1116), placing it in the top 10% of Australian suburbs on both measures, one decile below Epping's 10/10 and roughly equal to Baulkham Hills. James Ruse Agricultural High School (ICSEA 1222) is the country's highest-ranked selective school. The 8 schools in catchment all sit above the 1000 ICSEA national average, and unemployment at 5.9% runs only marginally above the national rate of 4.9%.
What is the median house price in Carlingford?
The median house price is $843,000 based on 2024-2025 NSW PSI-derived data, with the latest quarter peaking at $1.045M after a 30.8% one-year lift. That sits 26% below Castle Hill's $1.14M, 50% below Baulkham Hills' $1.675M, and 4% below Epping's $882,750 despite Carlingford carrying a much higher 58.1% share of detached houses. Weekly rent averages $500, mortgage-to-income runs 27.7%, and affordability scoring improved from 68.2 in 2011 to 61.1 in 2021.
What schools are in Carlingford?
Carlingford has 8 schools, all above the 1000 ICSEA national average. The top 3 are James Ruse Agricultural High (selective, ICSEA 1222, 857 enrolled), Murray Farm Public (1142, 787), and St Gerard's Catholic Primary (1140, 262). Carlingford West Public is the largest at 1,636 students with ICSEA 1119, while Carlingford High (1772 students) and Cumberland High (1173 students) handle local catchment intakes.
Is Carlingford safe?
Detailed BOCSAR crime stats are not in the current feed, but SEIFA disadvantage decile 8 (IRSD score 1063) and IRSAD decile 9 place Carlingford in the upper tail of Australian suburbs on advantage measures, which typically correlate with lower crime exposure. The 23.0% turnover rate is moderate, and 77.0% of residents stayed put over the year, indicating settled tenure. Volunteering rate of 13.2% sits at the higher end for Sydney middle-ring suburbs.
Is Carlingford good for property investment?
Yields run thin: $500 weekly rent on a $843,000 median works out to a 3.1% gross yield, below standard investor thresholds. The 8.3% vacancy rate is materially higher than Sydney's 1-2% middle-ring norm, suggesting recent apartment supply absorbing slowly. The case is migration-driven: overseas inflow of +442 per year versus -144 internal outflow, plus 166 development applications in 12 months, has supported 19.5% decade rent growth. House stock outperforms apartments here.
How is Carlingford's population changing?
Population grew 27.1% over the past decade and is forecast to add 337 people per year, or 1.61% annually, reaching 22,765 by 2031 on the medium trajectory. The driver is overseas migration averaging +442 per year, partly offset by internal outflow of -144 per year, a settlement pattern almost identical to Epping next door. The gentrification score of 36 marks early-signs territory, lower than Epping or Hurstville which sit mid-cycle. Median age of 38 is 2 years below the national median.
What languages are spoken in Carlingford?
56.8% of residents were born overseas, 35.2 percentage points above the national rate. Top home languages are Mandarin (2,990 speakers), Cantonese (1,792), Korean (842), Urdu (357), and Hindi (289). Chinese ancestry leads at 11,395 residents or 41% of the population, with Korean (1,925) the distinctive third anchor ahead of Indian (1,686), a profile closer to Epping's than Hurstville's. The Mandarin-to-Cantonese ratio of about 5:3 leans mainland.
How active is development in Carlingford?
166 DAs were lodged in the last 12 months, an active pipeline by middle-ring Sydney standards. Recent filings include alterations and additions, dual occupancy with 2 dwellings, and demolition with subdivision. With apartments already at 29.5% of stock and semi-detached at 12.5%, the pipeline points to densification rather than greenfield growth. The Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 extension would lift this once delivered, given the suburb's 5.5% public-transport share.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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