Carlton
An 18.9% COVID population dip followed by full recovery to 23,758 by 2024 makes Carlton one of Sydney's most volatile demographic stories, driven by overseas migration averaging 2,515 per year, the highest inflow in this batch by a factor of six. The housing stock splits almost evenly between detached houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%), with two-bedroom units at 41.5% being the dominant format. Chinese ancestry leads at 2,328, ahead of English (1,303) and Greek (901), while the 52.5% overseas-born rate sits 30.9 percentage points above the national baseline. SEIFA places Carlton at IRSAD decile 7, above average, with an IEO decile 8 reading reflecting the 49.1% university qualification rate, 19.0 percentage points above the national figure. Household income at the 67.2 percentile is well above median.
Population
10,631
Median Age
38.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,860/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
61
Median House
$880K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The $880,000 median house price sits in Sydney's middle tier, with recent data showing a move from $842,500 in 2024 to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% increase. The near-equal split between houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%) gives buyers genuine format choice. Two-bedroom units at 41.5% dominate, followed by three-bedroom at 32.9% and four-plus at 21.1%, reflecting apartment influence on the bedroom distribution. The median monthly mortgage of $2,167 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of 26.9%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting rail access that makes Carlton genuinely commuter-friendly. The 7.6% vacancy rate is moderate. Walking and cycling at 7.7% adds a livability dimension above most suburban averages.
For Buyers
The $880,000 median house price sits in Sydney's middle tier, with recent data showing a move from $842,500 in 2024 to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% increase. The near-equal split between houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%) gives buyers genuine format choice. Two-bedroom units at 41.5% dominate, followed by three-bedroom at 32.9% and four-plus at 21.1%, reflecting apartment influence on the bedroom distribution. The median monthly mortgage of $2,167 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of 26.9%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting rail access that makes Carlton genuinely commuter-friendly. The 7.6% vacancy rate is moderate. Walking and cycling at 7.7% adds a livability dimension above most suburban averages.
For Investors
Renters at 38.6% form a large tenant pool, driven by the apartment stock and overseas migrant demographic that averaged 2,515 arrivals per year. Median weekly rent of $450 against the $880,000 median delivers a gross yield around 2.7%, reasonable for Sydney. The 7.6% vacancy rate suggests some softness but not oversupply. Fifty-seven development applications in 12 months, including secondary dwellings and new structures, signal active densification. The population trend of 2.21% annual growth, adding 559 persons per year, is among the fastest in this batch, powered almost entirely by overseas migration. Net internal migration is negative at 468 per year, meaning domestic residents leave as international arrivals replace them. The COVID recovery trajectory, full bounce-back from a 18.9% dip, demonstrates resilient demand.
Development Activity
Total DAs
300
Last 12 Months
61
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
0.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carlton iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Carlton South Public School
K-6 · 514 students
Demographics
Chinese (2,328), English (1,303) and Greek (901) are the top ancestry groups, with the 52.5% overseas-born rate 30.9 percentage points above national. Mandarin (549 speakers), Cantonese (407), Nepali (348), Greek (306) and Arabic (291) form a linguistically diverse profile. Christianity (4,852) leads religious affiliation, with Islam (818) and Hinduism (807) close together in second and third place. The university rate of 49.1% is 19.0 percentage points above the national baseline, driving the IEO decile 8 reading. Average household size of 2.7 is close to the national figure, and 24.2% of families are couples without children. The median age of 38 sits 2 years below national. The 7.0% unemployment rate is slightly above average despite the high qualification levels.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
46.7%
Houses
6.2%
Townhouse
45.3%
Apartment
Tenure
Renters at 38.6% lead the tenure mix, ahead of outright owners at 31.8% and mortgage holders at 29.7%. The housing stock is split between detached houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%), with semi-detached at just 6.2%, making this a bimodal market. Two-bedroom homes at 41.5% dominate, driven by apartment typology. Recent price data shows $842,500 in 2024 rising to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% gain, though only 2 data points are available. The 26.9% mortgage-to-income ratio is comfortably below stress thresholds. SEIFA IER decile 5 indicates median economic resources, while IEO decile 8 points to strong education advantage, a gap suggesting high-credential residents who have not yet converted qualifications into proportionate wealth, possibly because they are earlier in their careers.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,167
Rent / wk
$450
HH Size
2.7
Personal Income / wk
$762
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
7.6%
Unoccupied
311
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.2%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
26.9%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
24.2%
Couples, no children
8,556
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads at 18.3% (658 workers), followed by Professional/Tech at 11.4%, Retail at 9.1%, Education at 8.8% and Finance at 8.7%. The Finance share of 8.7% is notably higher than the national average, consistent with a suburb feeding workers into the Sydney CBD via rail. Professionals (1,317) dominate occupations, ahead of Clerical/Admin (738) and Managers (561). The 7.0% unemployment rate sits slightly above average despite the 49.1% university qualification rate, suggesting credential-job mismatch among recent migrants. The SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 confirms above-average overall advantage. Real income grew 46.4% over the decade, the highest in this batch, explaining the affordability improvement from 93.9% in 2011 to 56.0% in 2021, an extraordinary shift toward greater housing affordability relative to income.
Unemployment
6.7%
Labour Force
16,266
Unemployed
1,086
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.2%
Part-time
29.8%
Participation
51.1%
Employed
4,272
Occupations
Top Industries
University
49.1%
Postgraduate
14.6%
Born Overseas
52.5%
Dwellings
3,759
Transport to Work
Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting Carlton's rail connectivity to the Sydney CBD. Car driver share at 69.0% is the lowest in this batch, and walking/cycling at 7.7% adds further multimodal utility. Carlton South Public School (ICSEA 1,064, 514 students, Government) sits above the national benchmark of 1,000. Crime-specific data is not available. The SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 and IRSD decile 5 readings place Carlton above the national midpoint on overall advantage, though IRSD at decile 5 indicates the suburb is average rather than advantaged on disadvantage alone. The 5.9% need-for-assistance rate is near the national average. The 57 DAs in 12 months confirm active development, which may affect streetscape amenity during construction periods.
Drive
69.0%
Public Transport
16.3%
Walk / Cycle
7.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+2.21%/yr
(+559 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation growth at 2.21% per year, adding 559 persons annually, is the fastest in this batch. The COVID story is dramatic: population fell 18.9% from 21,029 pre-pandemic to 17,064 at the low, then fully recovered to 23,758 by 2024 and continued to 25,267 by 2025. This volatility is driven by overseas migration at 2,515 per year, while internal migration is negative at 468 per year. Medium projections show 26,654 by 2031. The gentrification score of 20 with early signs indicates demographic upgrading is beginning. Real income growth of 46.4% over the decade, the strongest in this batch, suggests the incoming population is increasingly higher-earning than the established resident base.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+2,515
Net Internal / yr
-468
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Net internal outflow -468/yr, Strong overseas inflow +2515/yr, COVID recovered (-19% dip → full recovery)
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carlton compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carlton a good suburb to live in?
Carlton (NSW) suits buyers who prioritise public transport, with 16.3% PT use, the highest in this batch, and car share at just 69.0%. The local primary school at ICSEA 1,064 exceeds the benchmark. IRSAD decile 7 confirms above-average advantage. Trade-offs include 7.6% vacancy, 7.0% unemployment and rapid demographic churn driven by 2,515 overseas arrivals per year.
What is the median house price in Carlton?
The median house price in Carlton (NSW) is $880,000, with the latest quarter showing $900,000 in 2025, up 6.8% from $842,500 in 2024. Median monthly mortgage is $2,167 producing a 26.9% mortgage-to-income ratio, well below the 30% stress threshold. Median weekly rent is $450 with a vacancy rate of 7.6%.
What schools are in Carlton?
Carlton has 1 school within its boundary: Carlton South Public School (ICSEA 1,064, 514 students, Government primary), sitting above the national benchmark of 1,000. The IEO decile 8 confirms strong education and occupation outcomes among adult residents. The 49.1% university rate is 19.0 percentage points above the national baseline.
Is Carlton safe?
Crime-specific data is not available for Carlton (NSW) in the current dataset. The IRSD decile 5 places the suburb at the national midpoint for relative disadvantage. The 7.0% unemployment rate is slightly above the national average. The IRSAD decile 7 overall reading suggests moderate socioeconomic conditions that typically align with average crime levels.
Is Carlton good for property investment?
Carlton's 38.6% renter share and overseas migration of 2,515 per year provide strong rental demand fundamentals. Gross yield at roughly 2.7% ($450 rent vs $880,000 median) is reasonable for Sydney. The 57 DAs in 12 months signal new supply. Population growth at 2.21% per year is the fastest in this batch. However, 7.6% vacancy suggests some softening, and internal outflow of 468 per year indicates churn.
How is Carlton's population changing?
Carlton's population surged from 21,321 in 2023 to 25,267 in 2025, growing 2.21% per year and adding 559 persons annually. It fully recovered from a COVID dip of 18.9% (down to 17,064 from 21,029). Overseas migration at 2,515 per year drives growth, offset by internal outflow of 468 per year. Medium projections reach 26,654 by 2031. Real income grew 46.4% over the decade.
What languages are spoken in Carlton?
Mandarin (549 speakers), Cantonese (407), Nepali (348), Greek (306) and Arabic (291) are the top non-English languages. Chinese ancestry at 2,328 leads the population, and the 52.5% overseas-born rate sits 30.9 percentage points above national. The Mandarin-Cantonese cluster of 956 speakers and the Nepali count of 348 point to both established and recent migration waves.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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