NSW 2218 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Carlton

An 18.9% COVID population dip followed by full recovery to 23,758 by 2024 makes Carlton one of Sydney's most volatile demographic stories, driven by overseas migration averaging 2,515 per year, the highest inflow in this batch by a factor of six. The housing stock splits almost evenly between detached houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%), with two-bedroom units at 41.5% being the dominant format. Chinese ancestry leads at 2,328, ahead of English (1,303) and Greek (901), while the 52.5% overseas-born rate sits 30.9 percentage points above the national baseline. SEIFA places Carlton at IRSAD decile 7, above average, with an IEO decile 8 reading reflecting the 49.1% university qualification rate, 19.0 percentage points above the national figure. Household income at the 67.2 percentile is well above median.

Carlton urban fabric map

Population

10,631

Median Age

38.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,860/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

61

Median House

$880K

2024-2025 (PSI derived)

2.04 km²· 5,208 people/km²· Family income $2,075/wk

The $880,000 median house price sits in Sydney's middle tier, with recent data showing a move from $842,500 in 2024 to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% increase. The near-equal split between houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%) gives buyers genuine format choice. Two-bedroom units at 41.5% dominate, followed by three-bedroom at 32.9% and four-plus at 21.1%, reflecting apartment influence on the bedroom distribution. The median monthly mortgage of $2,167 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of 26.9%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting rail access that makes Carlton genuinely commuter-friendly. The 7.6% vacancy rate is moderate. Walking and cycling at 7.7% adds a livability dimension above most suburban averages.

For Buyers

The $880,000 median house price sits in Sydney's middle tier, with recent data showing a move from $842,500 in 2024 to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% increase. The near-equal split between houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%) gives buyers genuine format choice. Two-bedroom units at 41.5% dominate, followed by three-bedroom at 32.9% and four-plus at 21.1%, reflecting apartment influence on the bedroom distribution. The median monthly mortgage of $2,167 produces a mortgage-to-income ratio of 26.9%, well below the 30% stress threshold. Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting rail access that makes Carlton genuinely commuter-friendly. The 7.6% vacancy rate is moderate. Walking and cycling at 7.7% adds a livability dimension above most suburban averages.

For Investors

Renters at 38.6% form a large tenant pool, driven by the apartment stock and overseas migrant demographic that averaged 2,515 arrivals per year. Median weekly rent of $450 against the $880,000 median delivers a gross yield around 2.7%, reasonable for Sydney. The 7.6% vacancy rate suggests some softness but not oversupply. Fifty-seven development applications in 12 months, including secondary dwellings and new structures, signal active densification. The population trend of 2.21% annual growth, adding 559 persons per year, is among the fastest in this batch, powered almost entirely by overseas migration. Net internal migration is negative at 468 per year, meaning domestic residents leave as international arrivals replace them. The COVID recovery trajectory, full bounce-back from a 18.9% dip, demonstrates resilient demand.

Development Activity

Total DAs

300

Last 12 Months

61

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

0.0%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Renovation / Extension
43
Demolition
23
Commercial / Industrial
14
Granny Flat / Secondary Dwelling
11
New Dwelling
9
Swimming Pool / Spa
7
Other
4
Subdivision
3

Schools in Carlton iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Carlton South Public School

ICSEA 1064 Primary Government

K-6 · 514 students

Demographics

Chinese (2,328), English (1,303) and Greek (901) are the top ancestry groups, with the 52.5% overseas-born rate 30.9 percentage points above national. Mandarin (549 speakers), Cantonese (407), Nepali (348), Greek (306) and Arabic (291) form a linguistically diverse profile. Christianity (4,852) leads religious affiliation, with Islam (818) and Hinduism (807) close together in second and third place. The university rate of 49.1% is 19.0 percentage points above the national baseline, driving the IEO decile 8 reading. Average household size of 2.7 is close to the national figure, and 24.2% of families are couples without children. The median age of 38 sits 2 years below national. The 7.0% unemployment rate is slightly above average despite the high qualification levels.

Age Distribution

0-14
15.5%
15-24
12.3%
25-44
31.1%
45-64
24.9%
65+
16.1%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
4.5%
2 bed
41.5%
3 bed
32.9%
4+ bed
21.1%

Dwelling Structure

46.7%

Houses

6.2%

Townhouse

45.3%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 31.8% Mortgage 29.7% Rent 38.6%

Renters at 38.6% lead the tenure mix, ahead of outright owners at 31.8% and mortgage holders at 29.7%. The housing stock is split between detached houses (46.7%) and apartments (45.3%), with semi-detached at just 6.2%, making this a bimodal market. Two-bedroom homes at 41.5% dominate, driven by apartment typology. Recent price data shows $842,500 in 2024 rising to $900,000 in 2025, a 6.8% gain, though only 2 data points are available. The 26.9% mortgage-to-income ratio is comfortably below stress thresholds. SEIFA IER decile 5 indicates median economic resources, while IEO decile 8 points to strong education advantage, a gap suggesting high-credential residents who have not yet converted qualifications into proportionate wealth, possibly because they are earlier in their careers.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,167

Rent / wk

$450

HH Size

2.7

Personal Income / wk

$762

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

7.6%

Unoccupied

311

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

24.2%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

26.9%

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Mandarin
549
Canton
407
Nepali
348
Greek
306
Arabic
291
Macedon
244

Ancestry

Chinese
2,328
Other
2,311
English
1,303
Greek
901
Ancestry NS
632
Macedonian
611

Household Composition

24.2%

Couples, no children

8,556

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare leads at 18.3% (658 workers), followed by Professional/Tech at 11.4%, Retail at 9.1%, Education at 8.8% and Finance at 8.7%. The Finance share of 8.7% is notably higher than the national average, consistent with a suburb feeding workers into the Sydney CBD via rail. Professionals (1,317) dominate occupations, ahead of Clerical/Admin (738) and Managers (561). The 7.0% unemployment rate sits slightly above average despite the 49.1% university qualification rate, suggesting credential-job mismatch among recent migrants. The SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 confirms above-average overall advantage. Real income grew 46.4% over the decade, the highest in this batch, explaining the affordability improvement from 93.9% in 2011 to 56.0% in 2021, an extraordinary shift toward greater housing affordability relative to income.

Unemployment

6.7%

Labour Force

16,266

Unemployed

1,086

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
7
Disadvantage
5
Economic resources
5
Education & occupation
8

Full-time

63.2%

Part-time

29.8%

Participation

51.1%

Employed

4,272

Occupations

Professionals 1,317
Clerical/Admin 738
Managers 561
Community/Personal 504
Sales 479
Labourers 444
Machinery/Drivers 289

Top Industries

Healthcare 18.3%
Professional/Tech 11.4%
Retail 9.1%
Education 8.8%
Finance 8.7%

University

49.1%

Postgraduate

14.6%

Born Overseas

52.5%

Dwellings

3,759

Transport to Work

Public transport use at 16.3% is the highest in this batch, reflecting Carlton's rail connectivity to the Sydney CBD. Car driver share at 69.0% is the lowest in this batch, and walking/cycling at 7.7% adds further multimodal utility. Carlton South Public School (ICSEA 1,064, 514 students, Government) sits above the national benchmark of 1,000. Crime-specific data is not available. The SEIFA IRSAD decile 7 and IRSD decile 5 readings place Carlton above the national midpoint on overall advantage, though IRSD at decile 5 indicates the suburb is average rather than advantaged on disadvantage alone. The 5.9% need-for-assistance rate is near the national average. The 57 DAs in 12 months confirm active development, which may affect streetscape amenity during construction periods.

Drive

69.0%

Public Transport

16.3%

Walk / Cycle

7.7%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

+2.21%/yr

(+559 people/yr)

Established

Population growth at 2.21% per year, adding 559 persons annually, is the fastest in this batch. The COVID story is dramatic: population fell 18.9% from 21,029 pre-pandemic to 17,064 at the low, then fully recovered to 23,758 by 2024 and continued to 25,267 by 2025. This volatility is driven by overseas migration at 2,515 per year, while internal migration is negative at 468 per year. Medium projections show 26,654 by 2031. The gentrification score of 20 with early signs indicates demographic upgrading is beginning. Real income growth of 46.4% over the decade, the strongest in this batch, suggests the incoming population is increasingly higher-earning than the established resident base.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+2,515

Net Internal / yr

-468

20

Gentrification Signal

Early signs

Net internal outflow -468/yr, Strong overseas inflow +2515/yr, COVID recovered (-19% dip → full recovery)

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Carlton compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 4%
Household Income
Top 33%
Rent Level
Top 10%
Apartments
Top 8%
Renters
Top 17%
Uni Educated
Top 10%
Public Transport
Top 5%
Born Overseas
Top 2%
Density
Top 1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Carlton a good suburb to live in?

Carlton (NSW) suits buyers who prioritise public transport, with 16.3% PT use, the highest in this batch, and car share at just 69.0%. The local primary school at ICSEA 1,064 exceeds the benchmark. IRSAD decile 7 confirms above-average advantage. Trade-offs include 7.6% vacancy, 7.0% unemployment and rapid demographic churn driven by 2,515 overseas arrivals per year.

What is the median house price in Carlton?

The median house price in Carlton (NSW) is $880,000, with the latest quarter showing $900,000 in 2025, up 6.8% from $842,500 in 2024. Median monthly mortgage is $2,167 producing a 26.9% mortgage-to-income ratio, well below the 30% stress threshold. Median weekly rent is $450 with a vacancy rate of 7.6%.

What schools are in Carlton?

Carlton has 1 school within its boundary: Carlton South Public School (ICSEA 1,064, 514 students, Government primary), sitting above the national benchmark of 1,000. The IEO decile 8 confirms strong education and occupation outcomes among adult residents. The 49.1% university rate is 19.0 percentage points above the national baseline.

Is Carlton safe?

Crime-specific data is not available for Carlton (NSW) in the current dataset. The IRSD decile 5 places the suburb at the national midpoint for relative disadvantage. The 7.0% unemployment rate is slightly above the national average. The IRSAD decile 7 overall reading suggests moderate socioeconomic conditions that typically align with average crime levels.

Is Carlton good for property investment?

Carlton's 38.6% renter share and overseas migration of 2,515 per year provide strong rental demand fundamentals. Gross yield at roughly 2.7% ($450 rent vs $880,000 median) is reasonable for Sydney. The 57 DAs in 12 months signal new supply. Population growth at 2.21% per year is the fastest in this batch. However, 7.6% vacancy suggests some softening, and internal outflow of 468 per year indicates churn.

How is Carlton's population changing?

Carlton's population surged from 21,321 in 2023 to 25,267 in 2025, growing 2.21% per year and adding 559 persons annually. It fully recovered from a COVID dip of 18.9% (down to 17,064 from 21,029). Overseas migration at 2,515 per year drives growth, offset by internal outflow of 468 per year. Medium projections reach 26,654 by 2031. Real income grew 46.4% over the decade.

What languages are spoken in Carlton?

Mandarin (549 speakers), Cantonese (407), Nepali (348), Greek (306) and Arabic (291) are the top non-English languages. Chinese ancestry at 2,328 leads the population, and the 52.5% overseas-born rate sits 30.9 percentage points above national. The Mandarin-Cantonese cluster of 956 speakers and the Nepali count of 348 point to both established and recent migration waves.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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