Carnes Hill
With 3,332 residents in just 1.32 sq km, Carnes Hill combines a compact footprint with a density of 2,523.5 people per sq km. Its median age of 32 is 8 years below the national comparison, while 46.1% of residents were born overseas, 24.5 percentage points above the national figure. The suburb is strongly family and mortgage oriented: 87.9% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms, 69.9% of families are couples with children, and 65.0% are owned with a mortgage. Compared with nearby Hoxton Park and Prestons, its concentrated detached-housing profile gives it a clear family-market identity, while the 2.14% annual forecast growth rate points to continuing demand.
Population
3,332
Median Age
32.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,630/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
15
Carnes Hill suits buyers prioritising larger detached homes, with 98.3% of dwellings classed as separate houses and 87.9% containing 4 or more bedrooms. The typical household is relatively large at 3.8 people, or 1.3 above the national comparison, which helps explain the strong demand for family-sized layouts. Mortgage commitments average $2,700 per month, while mortgage costs represent 23.7% of household income, below a level generally associated with severe stress. Compared with apartment-heavy markets, the 1.0% apartment share gives buyers a narrower but clearer housing choice. A household income of $2,630 per week, at the 94.2 percentile, supports purchasing capacity, although affordability is worsening.
For Buyers
Carnes Hill suits buyers prioritising larger detached homes, with 98.3% of dwellings classed as separate houses and 87.9% containing 4 or more bedrooms. The typical household is relatively large at 3.8 people, or 1.3 above the national comparison, which helps explain the strong demand for family-sized layouts. Mortgage commitments average $2,700 per month, while mortgage costs represent 23.7% of household income, below a level generally associated with severe stress. Compared with apartment-heavy markets, the 1.0% apartment share gives buyers a narrower but clearer housing choice. A household income of $2,630 per week, at the 94.2 percentile, supports purchasing capacity, although affordability is worsening.
For Investors
Carnes Hill has an investor profile shaped by owner-occupier demand rather than a large rental pool. Renting accounts for 17.1% of occupied dwellings, while the vacancy rate is 2.5%, a combination that can support tenant competition when suitable homes are listed. Weekly rent is $600 and recorded rent growth is 25.0%, improving income potential compared with a stagnant rental market. The 98.3% separate-house share points to family tenants and larger dwellings as the main target, rather than apartment renters. Fifteen development matters were recorded over 12 months, mostly involving alterations, food premises or residential improvements, so supply pressure appears more limited than in a major greenfield release. Compare the expected yield against the purchase price before buying.
Development Activity
Total DAs
140
Last 12 Months
15
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-16.7%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carnes Hill
Open-register school locations for education access. This is not a school-quality ranking.
Demographics
Carnes Hill has a young but gradually aging population profile: the median age is 32, which is 8 years below the national comparison, yet the wider trajectory is labelled Aging. Overseas-born residents account for 46.1% of the population, 24.5 percentage points above the national figure, with Indian, Italian and Vietnamese ancestry among the leading recorded groups. Arabic is spoken by 149 residents and Hindi by 96. Families with children make up 69.9% of families, while the average household size of 3.8 is 1.3 above the national comparison. Residential stability is relatively high, with 83.2% staying at the same address and turnover at 16.8%. Compared with nearby Hoxton Park and Prestons, this creates a particularly concentrated family and migrant-household profile.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
98.3%
Houses
0.7%
Townhouse
1.0%
Apartment
Tenure
The housing stock is overwhelmingly detached, with separate houses making up 98.3% of dwellings, compared with only 1.0% apartments and 0.7% semi-detached homes. Large floorplans dominate: 87.9% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms, while 9.0% have 3 bedrooms. Tenure is mortgage-led, with 65.0% paying a mortgage, 16.5% owning outright and 17.1% renting. This structure reflects a suburb where family formation and owner occupation shape demand more strongly than apartment turnover. Mortgage costs equal 23.7% of household income and rent equals 22.8%, so both measures sit below severe-stress territory. Compared with apartment-oriented areas, Carnes Hill provides less dwelling diversity but more consistent access to detached family housing.
Mortgage / mo
$2,700
Rent / wkiMedian weekly rent for new bonds (April to June 2026), NSW Rental Bond Board (DCJ). Census 2021 median: $600.
$800
Bond data Jun 2026 · houses $815
HH Size
3.8
Personal Income / wk
$932
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
2.5%
Unoccupied
22
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.8%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
69.9%
Couples with children
18.1%
Couples, no children
11.5%
Single parent
845
Total families
Economy & Employment
Carnes Hill has strong household earning capacity, with weekly household income of $2,630 at the 94.2 percentile and family income of $2,584, both above the national comparison. Healthcare leads local employment at 16.1%, followed by Education at 11.2%, Finance at 9.8%, Professional and Technical services at 8.6%, and Construction at 8.2%. Professionals number 362, while Clerical and Administrative workers number 250 and Managers 193. The labour-force participation rate is 64.7%, full-time employment is 58.5%, and unemployment is 5.0%. Economic resources rank strongly at IER decile 9, but IRSAD is only decile 6 and IRSD decile 4, indicating that income and education advantages are not shared evenly across all households. Compared with lower-income areas, this supports resilient owner-occupier demand.
Unemployment
5.0%
Labour Force
1,519
Unemployed
76
Source: ABS Census 2021
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
58.5%
Part-time
26.3%
Participation
64.7%
Employed
1,443
Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021
Occupations
Top Industries
University
40.7%
Postgraduate
8.3%
Born Overseas
46.1%
Dwellings
840
Transport to Work
Carnes Hill is convenient for households that drive or work from home, but less suited to residents relying on public transport. Car drivers account for 51.4% of commuters, compared with 0.8% using public transport, while 44.4% work from home and 1.1% walk or cycle. Families have access to 1 identified local school, Greenway Park Public School, a government primary school. Check enrolment zones against the exact address because catchments can cross suburb boundaries. The IRSAD result is decile 6, while IRSD is decile 4, pointing to moderate overall advantage alongside some disadvantage. Compared with a transit-oriented suburb, Carnes Hill's practical strengths are space, home-based work capacity and family housing, while transport planning matters more for non-drivers.
Drive
51.4%
Public Transport
0.8%
Walk / Cycle
1.1%
Work from Home
44.4%
Population Forecast
+2.14%/yr
(+302 people/yr)
EstablishedCarnes Hill's wider-area growth trend is 2.14% annually, with overseas migration identified as the primary driver. Population change across the wider area is 47.5% over 10 years, showing stronger momentum than a flat-growth setting. At the same time, the trajectory is labelled Aging: the senior share has increased by 3.7 percentage points, while the young share and working share have each declined by 2.3 points. Rent growth is 25.0%, and affordability has worsened from 62.8 in 2011 to 65.6 in 2021, which may limit access for new buyers. The gentrification score is 17 and the stage is Not gentrifying, suggesting expansion is being driven more by migration and established family housing than by a rapid prestige-market shift.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+94
Net Internal / yr
-22
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +51% since 2011
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carnes Hill compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carnes Hill a good suburb to live in?
Carnes Hill suits households seeking large detached homes and a family-oriented setting. The median age is 32, 87.9% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms, and 69.9% of families are couples with children. Car access is important because 51.4% of commuters drive, while only 0.8% use public transport.
What is the median house price in Carnes Hill?
Check recent Carnes Hill sales for the current median, since property type and sale period matter. The local housing mix is 98.3% separate houses, with 87.9% containing 4 or more bedrooms. Weekly household income is $2,630, which can help buyers assess borrowing capacity alongside current sale prices.
What schools are in Carnes Hill?
Carnes Hill has 1 identified local school: Greenway Park Public School, a government primary school. Families should check enrolment zones against the exact address because catchments can cross suburb boundaries. With 87.9% of dwellings containing 4 or more bedrooms, the suburb is strongly oriented toward family households.
Is Carnes Hill safe?
Assess safety using current NSW Police incident information and the exact street, because conditions can vary across a suburb. Carnes Hill has 3,332 residents and a density of 2,523.5 people per sq km. Local decisions should also consider lighting, traffic, walking routes and activity around schools and shops.
Is Carnes Hill good for property investment?
Carnes Hill may suit investors targeting family tenants, with weekly rent of $600, a 2.5% vacancy rate and 25.0% rent growth. Renting accounts for 17.1% of dwellings, while 98.3% are separate houses. Calculate the expected gross yield from the current purchase price and allow for maintenance on larger homes.
How is Carnes Hill's population changing?
Growth across the wider area is running at 2.14% annually, driven primarily by overseas migration, with population change of 47.5% over 10 years. The trajectory is also Aging: the senior share rose 3.7 percentage points, while the young share fell 2.3 points. This suggests continued demand with a gradually older resident mix.
What languages are spoken in Carnes Hill?
Carnes Hill has an overseas-born share of 46.1%, above the national comparison by 24.5 percentage points. Arabic is spoken by 149 residents, Hindi by 96, Serbian by 49, Croatian by 26 and Italian by 23. These figures indicate that multilingual services may be useful for local households and businesses.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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