Carnes Hill
Household income at the 94.2nd percentile nationally and 87.9% of dwellings with four or more bedrooms mark Carnes Hill as one of south-west Sydney's most family-oriented, high-earning suburbs. The median age of 32 sits 8 years below the national figure, and 46.1% of residents were born overseas, which is 24.5 points above the national average. Population grew 47.5% over the past decade, driven primarily by overseas migration of around 94 residents a year. Despite that rapid growth, mortgage-to-income sits at just 23.7%, below the 30% stress threshold, a signal that high-earning families are absorbing elevated purchase prices without undue strain.
Population
3,332
Median Age
32.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,630/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
19
Median House
$1.4M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price reached $1,432,000 in 2025, up 4.5% from $1,370,000 in 2024, giving a one-year CAGR of 4.5%. At 98.3% separate houses and just 1.0% apartments, the stock is almost entirely detached, so buyers choose between large family homes rather than a mixed market. Four-plus bedroom dwellings account for 87.9% of all housing, well above typical Sydney suburbs, reflecting demand from multigenerational and extended families with an average household size of 3.8, compared to the national average of 2.5. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,700 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 23.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold despite the $1.4M median, because household weekly income of $2,630 sits in the top 6% nationally.
For Buyers
The median house price reached $1,432,000 in 2025, up 4.5% from $1,370,000 in 2024, giving a one-year CAGR of 4.5%. At 98.3% separate houses and just 1.0% apartments, the stock is almost entirely detached, so buyers choose between large family homes rather than a mixed market. Four-plus bedroom dwellings account for 87.9% of all housing, well above typical Sydney suburbs, reflecting demand from multigenerational and extended families with an average household size of 3.8, compared to the national average of 2.5. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,700 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 23.7%, comfortably below the 30% stress threshold despite the $1.4M median, because household weekly income of $2,630 sits in the top 6% nationally.
For Investors
Renters make up only 17.4% of households and vacancy runs at 2.5%, signalling tight rental supply relative to the predominantly owner-occupied base. Weekly rent averages $600, and against the $1,432,000 median the gross yield is close to 2.2%, modest but comparable to other premium western Sydney markets. Net overseas migration of 94 residents a year continues to underpin demand, while net internal migration is slightly negative at minus 22, typical for an established suburb that has already absorbed its growth phase. There were 19 development applications lodged in the past 12 months, mostly dwelling houses and alterations, consistent with an established low-turnover market. Population growth of 2.14% annually translates to around 302 additional residents per year, sustaining long-term demand.
Development Activity
Total DAs
137
Last 12 Months
19
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+18.8%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Carnes Hill iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Holy Spirit Catholic Primary School
K-6 · 669 students
Greenway Park Public School
K-6 · 620 students
Demographics
The median age of 32 is 8 years below the national figure, and 65.9% of households carry a mortgage rather than own outright, consistent with a suburb in its wealth-building phase rather than wealth-holding. Overseas-born residents at 46.1% sit 24.5 percentage points above the national average, reflecting strong migration-driven settlement patterns. The top ancestry groups are broad (Other 1,351), with Indian (361), English (250), Italian (224) and Vietnamese (207) among the named groups. Arabic is the most common non-English language with 149 speakers, followed by Hindi (96) and Serbian (49). University qualifications reach 40.7%, which is 10.6 points above the national figure, consistent with a professional and managerial workforce profile. Couples with children dominate at 1,971 families out of 3,121 total, with couples without children at just 10.0%.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
98.3%
Houses
0.7%
Townhouse
1.0%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure in Carnes Hill breaks down as 65.9% mortgaged, 16.7% owned outright, and 17.4% renting, a profile that skews heavily toward recent buyers still paying down loans rather than long-settled owners. Separate houses account for 98.3% of stock, far above the national average, with semi-detached at 0.7% and apartments just 1.0%. The bedroom profile is stark: 87.9% of dwellings have four or more bedrooms, and three-bedroom homes add another 9.0%, leaving almost no smaller stock. Prices moved from $1,370,000 in 2024 to $1,432,000 in 2025, a 4.5% rise. Rent-to-income of 22.8% and mortgage-to-income of 23.7% both sit below stress thresholds, suggesting the suburb attracts households with financial capacity matched to its price level.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,700
Rent / wk
$600
HH Size
3.8
Personal Income / wk
$932
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
2.5%
Unoccupied
22
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.8%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.7%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
10.0%
Couples, no children
3,121
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads employment at 16.1% of workers (153 people), followed by Education at 11.2% (107), Finance at 9.8% (93), Professional/Tech at 8.6% (82) and Construction at 8.2% (78). By occupation, Professionals are the largest group (362), then Clerical/Admin (250), Managers (193) and Machinery/Drivers (153). The full-time employment rate of 69.0% is healthy, though the participation rate of 55.4% is below typical levels, partly because large households with children include more residents outside the labour force (743 not in labour force). Unemployment sits at 5.9%. SEIFA scores show an interesting split: the IRSAD decile is 6 (moderate-to-high advantage overall) while the IER decile is 9, reflecting strong economic resources, and the IRSD decile is 4, suggesting some pockets of disadvantage co-exist with the area's high incomes.
Unemployment
3.0%
Labour Force
8,086
Unemployed
245
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
69.0%
Part-time
25.1%
Participation
55.4%
Employed
1,223
Occupations
Top Industries
University
40.7%
Postgraduate
8.3%
Born Overseas
46.1%
Dwellings
840
Transport to Work
Car dependence is very high at 92.4% driving to work, compared to the national average, with only 1.5% using public transport and 2.0% walking or cycling, reflecting the low-density detached-house layout of a 1.32 km2 suburb at 2,524 residents per km2. No schools are recorded inside the suburb boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring areas. Crime data is not available at the suburb level for Carnes Hill, though the IRSD decile of 4 indicates some relative disadvantage on that index. Housing stress is low: rent-to-income at 22.8% and mortgage-to-income at 23.7% both sit below the 30% stress threshold. The need-for-assistance rate of 3.9% (124 residents) is moderate, and the volunteering rate of 6.6% is below average, consistent with a suburb where many households have young children and long commutes.
Drive
92.4%
Public Transport
1.5%
Walk / Cycle
2.0%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+2.14%/yr
(+302 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew 47.5% over the decade, and current estimates sit around 14,106 residents, with medium forecasts projecting growth to 16,229 by 2031 at roughly 2.14% annually or 302 residents per year. Overseas migration is the primary driver at a net 94 per year, while net internal migration is minus 22, meaning the suburb attracts overseas-born residents while some domestic movers relocate outward. The population trajectory is aging: the senior share rose 3.7 points and the young share fell 2.3 points over the decade, though with a median age of 32 the suburb remains younger than national. Real income declined 2.7% over the period, and affordability worsened slightly from 62.8% in 2011 to 65.6% in 2021. The gentrification score sits at not gentrifying, consistent with an already-established premium suburb.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+94
Net Internal / yr
-22
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +51% since 2011
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Carnes Hill compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Carnes Hill a good suburb to live in?
Carnes Hill suits families well, with 87.9% of dwellings having four or more bedrooms and household income in the 94.2nd percentile nationally. The median age is 32, 8 years below national, and mortgage-to-income sits at a manageable 23.7%. The main trade-offs are high car dependence at 92.4% and no schools recorded inside the 1.32 km2 boundary.
What is the median house price in Carnes Hill?
The median house price is $1,432,000 as of 2025, up 4.5% from $1,370,000 in 2024. Weekly rent averages $600 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $2,700, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 23.7% against household weekly income of $2,630.
What schools are in Carnes Hill?
No schools are recorded inside the Carnes Hill boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in surrounding suburbs. Despite this, 40.7% of residents hold university qualifications, which is 10.6 points above the national figure, reflecting a well-educated population that likely values proximity to quality schools in neighbouring areas.
Is Carnes Hill safe?
Crime statistics are not available at the Carnes Hill suburb level in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb sits at IRSAD decile 6 nationally, indicating moderate-to-high overall advantage, and only 3.9% of the 3,332 residents require daily assistance, consistent with a functioning and stable community.
Is Carnes Hill good for property investment?
Rental vacancy is 2.5% and only 17.4% of households rent, so the tenant pool is thin but demand is supported by net overseas migration of 94 residents per year. Weekly rent of $600 against a $1,432,000 median implies a gross yield near 2.2%. Annual price growth of 4.5% and 2.14% population growth support the capital growth case, but yield-focused investors should weigh the low renter share.
How is Carnes Hill's population changing?
Population grew 47.5% over the past decade and currently sits around 14,106 residents. Medium forecasts project 16,229 by 2031, at roughly 302 additional residents per year. Overseas migration drives growth at a net 94 per year, while internal migration is slightly negative at minus 22. The suburb is on an aging trajectory with the senior share up 3.7 points over the decade.
What languages are spoken in Carnes Hill?
About 46.1% of residents were born overseas, which is 24.5 percentage points above the national average. Arabic is the most common non-English language with 149 speakers, followed by Hindi (96), Serbian (49), Croatian (26) and Italian (23), reflecting a multicultural community shaped by waves of overseas migration.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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