Grafton

Development Activity

Schools in Grafton iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Demographics

English ancestry dominates at 4,321 residents, with Irish (1,220), Scottish (1,073) and German (498) forming a strongly Anglo profile. Just 6.7% of residents were born overseas, 14.9 percentage points below the national average, one of the lowest overseas-born shares among NSW towns of similar size. University qualifications at 18.9% sit 11.2 points below national, consistent with the IEO decile 1 reading. The median age of 44 runs 4 years above the national figure, and the 30.1% couples-without-children share points to an older household profile. Average household size of 2.2 is below the national 2.5, indicating smaller households and a higher proportion of single-person dwellings.

Tenure shows 36.3% own outright, 28.7% hold mortgages and 35.0% rent. The high outright ownership share is typical of regional towns with long-tenured older residents. Detached houses at 76.3% dominate, but the 12.4% apartment share is elevated for a regional centre, likely reflecting older walk-up units. Three-bedroom stock leads at 46.3%, while two-bedroom dwellings at 21.8% cater to the smaller household size of 2.2. Prices climbed from $469,000 to $510,000 between 2024 and 2025, an 8.7% annual gain. The rent-to-income ratio of 25.4% sits below the 30% stress line but is higher than mortgage stress at 26.4%, a pattern that typically accompanies low-income rental markets.

Community Profile

Economy & Employment

Healthcare is the dominant employer at 25.0% (671 workers), a concentration roughly double the national average, driven by Grafton Base Hospital's role as the regional referral centre. Public Administration at 14.9% and Education at 12.5% reflect the government-services economy typical of a regional hub. Community/Personal workers lead occupations at 761, ahead of Professionals (706) and Clerical/Admin (538). The unemployment rate of 6.5% exceeds the national average, and the participation rate of 48.1% means over half of working-age adults are outside the labour force. SEIFA shows IRSAD decile 1 and IEO decile 1, but IER decile 2 suggests slightly better economic resource levels than educational attainment, consistent with trade-based employment that pays above minimum wage.

Transport to Work

Public transport is essentially absent at 0.3% usage, but 7.6% walk or cycle, higher than most suburbs nationally, reflecting the compact town layout. Car dependence at 84.8% is the dominant commuting mode. Schools range from St Mary's Primary (Catholic, ICSEA 1,020, 259 students) above the national benchmark to Grafton Public School (Government, ICSEA 907, 476 students) well below it. Grafton High School (Government, 941, 768 students) and Westlawn Public School (Government, 940, 467 students) sit in a similar below-benchmark band. The 113-point ICSEA spread across 5 schools reflects the IRSAD decile 1 socioeconomic mix. The need-for-assistance rate of 10.5% (1,054 residents) is notably high, consistent with an aging population profile.

Population Forecast

Population is projected to grow at 0.99% per year, adding 180 persons annually, reaching approximately 18,706 by 2031 from 17,809 in 2026. The 10-year population change of 12.2% exceeds most regional NSW towns. Critically, internal migration drives the growth at 250 net arrivals per year, with only 32 from overseas. This domestic-migration-led pattern is the signature of regional gentrification, where city leavers bring higher incomes and remote-work capacity. The gentrification score of 46 at the suburb level (60 in the shift data) with active classification confirms structural change. Real income grew 17.2% over the decade, higher than the national average, though starting from a low base at the 23.6 percentile.

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Grafton compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Frequently Asked Questions