NSW 2251 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Kincumber

At a median age of 48, Kincumber is 8 years older than the national comparison and has an established, settled character. Its population is 7,398, while the forecast annual growth rate is only 0.2%, pointing to limited expansion rather than rapid change. Compared with nearby Erina and Gosford, Kincumber reads as a slower-growing residential setting, with 31.5% of residents working from home and 61.6% driving to work. The main identity is shaped by older households, detached and semi-detached housing, and a stronger local service economy than its modest income percentile of 32.9 might suggest.

Kincumber urban fabric map

Population

7,398

Median Age

48.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,321/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

61

9.91 km²· 746.2 people/km²· Family income $1,930/wk

Kincumber suits buyers prioritising established housing and practical space over apartment living. Separate houses account for 65.6% of dwellings, while semi-detached homes make up 30.0% and apartments only 4.3%. The most common layouts are 3-bedroom homes at 37.0% and 4-bedroom-plus homes at 33.0%, giving family buyers more choice than a compact, apartment-led market. Affordability needs care because the typical monthly mortgage figure is $2,085 and mortgage repayments equal 36.5% of income, above rent stress at 30.3%. Buyers should also compare older housing, renovation needs and exact street access before committing.

For Buyers

Kincumber suits buyers prioritising established housing and practical space over apartment living. Separate houses account for 65.6% of dwellings, while semi-detached homes make up 30.0% and apartments only 4.3%. The most common layouts are 3-bedroom homes at 37.0% and 4-bedroom-plus homes at 33.0%, giving family buyers more choice than a compact, apartment-led market. Affordability needs care because the typical monthly mortgage figure is $2,085 and mortgage repayments equal 36.5% of income, above rent stress at 30.3%. Buyers should also compare older housing, renovation needs and exact street access before committing.

For Investors

Kincumber has a moderate rental base, with 18.2% of households renting, lower than outright ownership at 32.5% and mortgage ownership at 32.9%. Weekly rent is $400 and vacancy is 5.5%, so investors should allow for a less constrained rental market than suburbs with very low vacancy. The forecast records 50.9% rent growth, while annual population growth is only 0.2%, making income performance more important than assuming strong capital gains. Overseas migration is the primary growth driver, and 65 development applications in 12 months indicate ongoing renovation and building activity. The aging trajectory may support demand for accessible, lower-maintenance homes.

Development Activity

Total DAs

308

Last 12 Months

61

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

-1.6%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Renovation / Extension
44
Swimming Pool / Spa
34
Granny Flat / Secondary Dwelling
12
Other
6
Signage / Advertising
4
New Dwelling
4
Garage / Carport / Shed
4
Subdivision
4

Schools in Kincumber

Open-register school locations for education access. This is not a school-quality ranking.

Kincumber Public School

Primary School Government
School website

Kincumber High School

Secondary School Government
School website

Demographics

Kincumber has an older demographic profile, with a median age of 48, which is 8 years above the national comparison. University attainment is 25.6%, or 4.5 percentage points below the national figure, while the overseas-born share is 17.7%, 3.9 points below nationally. English, Irish and Scottish ancestry are prominent, with counts of 3,371, 964 and 892 respectively. Christianity has 4,005 adherents and no religion 2,810, showing two substantial groups rather than one dominant outlook. Average household size is 2.4, below the national comparison by 0.1, helping explain the strong presence of couples without children at 41.9%.

Age Distribution

0-14
17.1%
15-24
9.9%
25-44
19.8%
45-64
22.4%
65+
30.8%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
3.7%
2 bed
26.3%
3 bed
37.0%
4+ bed
33.0%

Dwelling Structure

65.6%

Houses

30.0%

Townhouse

4.3%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 32.5% Mortgage 32.9% Rent 18.2% Other 16.4%

Kincumber's housing is weighted toward established family dwellings, with 65.6% separate houses and 30.0% semi-detached homes, compared with only 4.3% apartments. Three-bedroom homes are the largest category at 37.0%, higher than 4-bedroom-plus homes at 33.0% and 2-bedroom homes at 26.3%. Tenure is split across 32.5% owned outright, 32.9% with a mortgage and 18.2% rented, indicating a substantial mix of long-term owners and active borrowers. Mortgage repayments equal 36.5% of income, above the 30.3% rent-to-income measure, so loan servicing can be a greater pressure than renting. Compared with an apartment-heavy market, Kincumber provides more ground-oriented housing and renovation potential.

Mortgage / mo

$2,085

Rent / wkiMedian weekly rent for new bonds (April to June 2026), NSW Rental Bond Board (DCJ). Census 2021 median: $400.

$780

Bond data Jun 2026 · houses $850 · units $580

HH Size

2.4

Personal Income / wk

$686

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

5.5%

Unoccupied

172

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

30.3% stressed

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

36.5% stressed

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Afrikaans
16
Russian
12
Portuguese
11

Ancestry

English
3,371
Irish
964
Scottish
892
Other
471
Ancestry NS
442
German
242

Household Composition

40.5%

Couples with children

41.9%

Couples, no children

17.0%

Single parent

1,997

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare is Kincumber's largest recorded industry at 23.4%, with 467 workers, followed by construction at 12.2% and education at 11.8%. Public administration accounts for 9.5% and professional and technical work 7.2%, creating a service-led base supported by trades and public-sector employment. The leading occupations are professionals at 624, trades at 444, community and personal service at 432, clerical and administrative workers at 408, and managers at 363. Unemployment is 3.1% and participation is 49.8%, while weekly household income is $1,321 and sits at the 32.9th percentile. The IER decile of 7 is higher than the IEO decile of 5, suggesting stronger employment-related advantage than education and occupation measures alone.

Unemployment

3.1%

Labour Force

3,051

Unemployed

94

Source: ABS Census 2021

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
5
Disadvantage
6
Economic resources
7
Education & occupation
5

Full-time

49.2%

Part-time

39.2%

Participation

49.8%

Employed

2,957

Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021

Occupations

Professionals 624
Trades 444
Community/Personal 432
Clerical/Admin 408
Managers 363
Labourers 260
Sales 253
Machinery/Drivers 129

Top Industries

Healthcare 23.4%
Construction 12.2%
Education 11.8%
Public Admin 9.5%
Professional/Tech 7.2%

University

25.6%

Postgraduate

5.2%

Born Overseas

17.7%

Dwellings

2,931

Transport to Work

Kincumber provides two local government schools, Kincumber Public School for primary years and Kincumber High School for secondary years. Families should check enrolment zones against the exact address because catchments can cross local streets and boundaries. Daily mobility is strongly car-oriented: 61.6% drive to work, compared with 0.9% using public transport and 2.0% walking or cycling. Working from home is relatively common at 31.5%, which can reduce commuting pressure for some households. The suburb covers 9.91 square kilometres at a density of 746.2 people per square kilometre. Its IRSAD decile is 5, while the IER decile is higher at 7, indicating middle-range overall advantage with stronger employment-related conditions.

Drive

61.6%

Public Transport

0.9%

Walk / Cycle

2.0%

Work from Home

31.5%

Population Forecast

+0.2%/yr

(+15 people/yr)

Established

Kincumber has an established forecast type and an annual growth trend of 0.2%, indicating slower expansion than a high-growth suburban market. Population change across the wider area is 7.1% over 10 years, with overseas migration identified as the primary driver. The trajectory is Aging: the senior share has increased by 4.6 percentage points, while the working share has fallen by 1.6 points and the young share by 0.6 points. Affordability also moved higher from 55.3 in 2011 to 57.9 in 2021, consistent with the recorded Worsening trend. Gentrification signals are mixed, with one forecast label showing score 0 and Not gentrifying, while the shift indicator records 49 and Active.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+38

Net Internal / yr

-25

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Kincumber compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 7%
Household Income
Bottom 33%
Rent Level
Top 17%
Apartments
Top 12%
Renters
Top 42%
Uni Educated
Top 45%
Public Transport
Bottom 17%
Born Overseas
Top 36%
Density
Top 17%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Kincumber a good suburb to live in?

Kincumber can suit households seeking established homes, local government schools and a quieter residential setting. The median age is 48, 8 years above the national comparison, and 65.6% of dwellings are separate houses. Car access matters because 61.6% drive to work and only 0.9% use public transport.

What is the median house price in Kincumber?

Check current settled sales and listings for the most reliable median rather than relying on an outdated estimate. Kincumber's housing mix includes 65.6% separate houses and 30.0% semi-detached dwellings, so the result can vary substantially by property type, land size and condition. Monthly mortgage repayments are recorded at $2,085.

What schools are in Kincumber?

Kincumber has 2 local government schools: Kincumber Public School for primary students and Kincumber High School for secondary students. Confirm the enrolment zone for the exact address before signing a contract, as school access depends on catchment boundaries rather than the suburb name alone.

Is Kincumber safe?

Check recent NSW Police records and visit the streets at different times before making a decision, since a suburb-level crime conclusion cannot be established from housing figures. Kincumber has 7,398 residents and a median age of 48, but those measures do not replace address-level safety checks.

Is Kincumber good for property investment?

Kincumber may suit investors seeking established housing and rental income, but growth expectations should remain measured. Weekly rent is $400, vacancy is 5.5% and the annual growth trend is 0.2%. Rent growth is recorded at 50.9%, while 65 development applications in 12 months point to ongoing property activity.

How is Kincumber's population changing?

Growth is slow, with an annual forecast trend of 0.2% and population change across the wider area of 7.1% over 10 years. Overseas migration is the primary driver, but the trajectory is Aging: the senior share rose 4.6 percentage points while the young share fell 0.6 points.

What development is occurring in Kincumber?

There were 65 development applications in the past 12 months, including dwelling alterations, earthworks, retaining walls and swimming pools. This points to continued reinvestment in established properties rather than a clearly identified large-scale apartment expansion. Check individual approvals for timing, scope and construction impacts.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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