Kincumber
A median age of 48 (8 years above the national figure) and 55.8% of the labour force not participating reveal Kincumber as a retirement-leaning Central Coast suburb where house prices have softened 3.8% from $1,057,500 to $1,017,500 over the past year. Despite median incomes at just the 33rd percentile, 38.9% own outright, the financial signature of retirees who bought decades ago. Rents grew 50.9% over the prior decade, yet mortgage stress has hit 36.5% of income, well above the 30% threshold, squeezing newer buyers entering at current prices.
Population
7,398
Median Age
48.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,321/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
58
Median House
$1.0M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price of $1,041,000 has declined 3.8% from its $1,057,500 peak in 2024 to $1,017,500 in 2025. Monthly mortgage payments of $2,085 consume 36.5% of household income, flagging mortgage stress. Stock is 65.6% detached, but 30.0% semi-detached provides a meaningful townhouse alternative. Bedrooms distribute broadly: 37% have 3 bedrooms, 33% have 4+, and 26.3% have 2. With only 44.2% labour force participation and incomes at the 33rd percentile, new buyers on typical local salaries face affordability challenges that existing retirees do not.
For Buyers
The median house price of $1,041,000 has declined 3.8% from its $1,057,500 peak in 2024 to $1,017,500 in 2025. Monthly mortgage payments of $2,085 consume 36.5% of household income, flagging mortgage stress. Stock is 65.6% detached, but 30.0% semi-detached provides a meaningful townhouse alternative. Bedrooms distribute broadly: 37% have 3 bedrooms, 33% have 4+, and 26.3% have 2. With only 44.2% labour force participation and incomes at the 33rd percentile, new buyers on typical local salaries face affordability challenges that existing retirees do not.
For Investors
Weekly rent of $400 against $1,041,000 median implies a gross yield of only 2.0%, among the lowest on the Central Coast. The 21.7% rental share offers a moderate tenant base, and vacancy at 5.5% sits above the balanced benchmark. Rent-to-income at 30.3% already crosses the stress threshold for tenants. With 59 DAs lodged in 12 months (including subdivisions and new dwellings), the supply pipeline is active. The aging-trajectory signal and 0.2% annual population growth suggest demand will not outpace this supply.
Development Activity
Total DAs
287
Last 12 Months
58
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+20.8%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Kincumber iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Holy Cross Catholic Primary School
K-6 · 285 students
Kincumber High School
7-12 · 1002 students
Kincumber Public School
K-6 · 364 students
Demographics
Kincumber's 48-year median age ranks 8 years above the national figure, with 9.2% needing assistance (650 people), one of the higher rates among Central Coast suburbs. University education at 25.6% sits 4.5 percentage points below the national average. English ancestry dominates at 3,371, followed by Irish (964) and Scottish (892). Only 17.7% were born overseas, 3.9pp below national norms. The small language communities (Afrikaans 16, Russian 12, Portuguese 11) reflect a homogeneous Anglo-Australian base rather than significant migration-driven diversity.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
65.6%
Houses
30.0%
Townhouse
4.3%
Apartment
Tenure
Detached houses make up 65.6% of stock, with a substantial 30.0% semi-detached component and 4.3% apartments. Outright owners (38.9%) and mortgage holders (39.4%) nearly match, while renters sit at 21.7%. The bedroom mix is more balanced than typical family suburbs: 26.3% have 2 bedrooms, suggesting downsizer or retiree stock. Prices declined 3.8% from $1,057,500 to $1,017,500 over the year. Both mortgage stress (36.5%) and rent stress (30.3%) exceed the 30% threshold, unusual for a suburb where nearly 4 in 10 own outright.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,085
Rent / wk
$400
HH Size
2.4
Personal Income / wk
$686
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.5%
Unoccupied
172
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
30.3% stressed
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
36.5% stressed
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
29.2%
Couples, no children
5,742
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare employs 23.4% of the workforce (467 workers), reflecting the aged-care and health services demand generated by the older population. Construction follows at 12.2% (243) and Education at 11.8% (235). Full-time work at 55.7% is below the national average, while participation at just 44.2% confirms large retiree cohort. Unemployment is low at 3.5%. The SEIFA IRSAD decile of 5 places Kincumber at the national midpoint, with an IER decile of 7 indicating slightly above-average economic resources despite modest incomes.
Unemployment
2.3%
Labour Force
3,475
Unemployed
79
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
55.7%
Part-time
40.8%
Participation
44.2%
Employed
2,614
Occupations
Top Industries
University
25.6%
Postgraduate
5.2%
Born Overseas
17.7%
Dwellings
2,931
Transport to Work
Three schools operate in Kincumber: Holy Cross Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1,081, 285 students), Kincumber High School (Government secondary, ICSEA 1,045, 1,002 students), and Kincumber Public School (Government primary, ICSEA 1,004, 364 students). All score above the national ICSEA benchmark. Public transport usage is 1.3%, with 90% driving. The 9.2% needing-assistance rate (650 people) is notably higher than the national average, consistent with the aging population profile.
Drive
90.0%
Public Transport
1.3%
Walk / Cycle
2.9%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.2%/yr
(+15 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is forecast to reach 7,728 by 2031, growing at only 0.2% per year (15 persons/year), well below the national growth rate. The aging trajectory is clear: senior share increased 4.6 percentage points while working-age share fell 1.6pp over the decade. Net overseas migration adds just 38 people per year, while net internal migration runs at -25, meaning the suburb is slowly losing residents to other areas. Gentrification score of 49 (active) during the prior decade has stalled, with prices now declining 3.8%.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+38
Net Internal / yr
-25
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Kincumber compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kincumber a good suburb to live in?
Kincumber suits retirees and established homeowners (38.9% own outright) with 3 schools scoring above ICSEA 1,000 and low 3.5% unemployment. However, new buyers face mortgage stress at 36.5% of income, and population growth of 0.2%/year indicates a static community. IRSAD decile 5 places it at the national midpoint.
What is the median house price in Kincumber?
The median house price is $1,041,000, declining 3.8% from $1,057,500 in 2024 to $1,017,500 in 2025. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,085 are significant against household incomes at the 33rd percentile nationally, pushing mortgage-to-income to 36.5%.
What schools are in Kincumber?
Kincumber has 3 schools: Holy Cross Catholic Primary (ICSEA 1,081, 285 students), Kincumber High School (Government, ICSEA 1,045, 1,002 students), and Kincumber Public School (Government, ICSEA 1,004, 364 students). All exceed the national ICSEA benchmark of 1,000.
Is Kincumber safe?
Suburb-level crime data is not available. SEIFA IRSD decile of 6 indicates moderate relative advantage. The low 3.5% unemployment, 38.9% outright ownership, and 80.4% residential stability suggest a settled community profile typically associated with below-average crime rates.
Is Kincumber good for property investment?
Gross yield of 2.0% ($400/week on $1,041,000) is poor, and prices fell 3.8% in the past year. Vacancy at 5.5% exceeds the 3% benchmark, while 59 DAs in 12 months add supply. Rent stress at 30.3% limits scope for rent increases. Capital and income returns are both under pressure.
How is Kincumber's population changing?
Population is forecast to grow just 0.2% annually (15 people/year) to 7,728 by 2031. The median age of 48 sits 8 years above the national figure, and the senior share grew 4.6pp over the decade. Net internal migration is -25/year, meaning the suburb gradually loses residents to other areas.
How much development is happening in Kincumber?
59 development applications were lodged in the past 12 months, including new dwellings, subdivisions, and commercial signage. For a suburb of 7,398 people, this is substantial activity, roughly 8 DAs per 1,000 residents, above the Central Coast average and likely driven by lot splitting on larger blocks.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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