Kogarah Bay
Household income at the 92.6th percentile nationally tells most of the Kogarah Bay story. This 0.66 square kilometre pocket on the shores of southern Sydney holds 2,102 residents at a density of 3,162 per square kilometre, with 95.1% of dwellings being separate houses, a proportion far above the Sydney average. The median house price of $1,825,000 sits firmly in the premium tier, and 47% of owners hold their homes outright, well above the national rate. Greek and English ancestries dominate, the median age of 44 is 4 years above national, and university qualifications reach 46.5%, which is 16.4 points above the national figure.
Population
2,102
Median Age
44.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,528/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
18
Median House
$1.8M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
At a $1,825,000 median house price, Kogarah Bay is a premium market by any measure, with monthly mortgage repayments averaging $2,963 and a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.1%, below the 30% stress threshold despite the elevated price point. The stock is almost entirely separate houses at 95.1%, with semi-detached dwellings covering 4.0% and apartments just 0.9%, so buyers face very little product substitution. The bedroom mix skews large: 54.6% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms and 36.8% have 3 bedrooms, reflecting the family-oriented character. Recent price data shows the 2024 peak was $2,050,000, with 2025 recording $1,460,000, a correction of 28.8%, which gives buyers entering now a meaningful discount compared to the recent peak.
For Buyers
At a $1,825,000 median house price, Kogarah Bay is a premium market by any measure, with monthly mortgage repayments averaging $2,963 and a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.1%, below the 30% stress threshold despite the elevated price point. The stock is almost entirely separate houses at 95.1%, with semi-detached dwellings covering 4.0% and apartments just 0.9%, so buyers face very little product substitution. The bedroom mix skews large: 54.6% of dwellings have 4 or more bedrooms and 36.8% have 3 bedrooms, reflecting the family-oriented character. Recent price data shows the 2024 peak was $2,050,000, with 2025 recording $1,460,000, a correction of 28.8%, which gives buyers entering now a meaningful discount compared to the recent peak.
For Investors
The rental market here is thin but steady. Only 13.9% of households rent, well below the national average, with weekly rent at $650. The 4.7% vacancy rate is elevated compared to tight inner-city markets, reflecting the predominantly owner-occupied character where turnover runs at just 16.9% annually. Development activity logged 19 applications in the past 12 months, including a residential flat building demolition and new structure, signalling some medium-density interest in the area. Overseas migration is the primary population driver at a net inflow of 601 per year against a net internal outflow of 101, so demand is externally supported. The low renter share means competition for tenants is limited but the buyer pool for investment properties is also selective.
Development Activity
Total DAs
137
Last 12 Months
18
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-40.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Demographics
The median age of 44 sits 4.0 years above the national figure, placing Kogarah Bay firmly among Sydney's more established, older-skewing communities. Overseas-born residents account for 33.8% of the population, which is 12.2 percentage points above the national average. Greek ancestry leads at 398 residents, followed by English (299) and Chinese (228), and Greek is the most spoken non-English language with 130 speakers, followed by Arabic (61) and Macedonian (49). University qualifications reach 46.5%, which is 16.4 points above national, consistent with the professional and managerial occupational profile. The average household size of 3.1 is 0.6 above national, pointing to multigenerational living patterns common in Greek and Chinese households.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
95.1%
Houses
4.0%
Townhouse
0.9%
Apartment
Tenure
Kogarah Bay is defined by its tenure stability: 47.0% of dwellings are owned outright, one of the higher rates for an urban suburb, while 39.2% carry a mortgage and only 13.9% rent. This spread tells a story of long-held wealth rather than a churn of leveraged buyers. Separate houses make up 95.1% of the stock, an unusually high figure for a Sydney suburb, with 54.6% of homes having 4 or more bedrooms. The price series shows a $2,050,000 median in 2024 falling to $1,460,000 in 2025, a 28.8% correction that narrows the gap between entry cost and income capacity. Mortgage-to-income at 27.1% remains below the 30% stress threshold, and rent-to-income at 25.7% is also comfortable, so neither buyer nor renter faces acute affordability pressure at current price levels.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,963
Rent / wk
$650
HH Size
3.1
Personal Income / wk
$837
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.7%
Unoccupied
33
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
25.7%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.1%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
20.9%
Couples, no children
1,883
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads local employment at 14.8% of workers (104 residents), followed by Professional and Technical services at 12.8% (90 residents), Education at 10.0% (70 residents), Finance at 9.8% (69 residents), and Construction at 8.8% (62 residents). By occupation, Professionals are the largest group (280 workers), with Clerical and Administrative (185) and Managers (179) close behind, which aligns with the SEIFA IEO decile 8 score for education and occupation advantage. Unemployment sits at 4.5% and the full-time employment rate is 64.0%, with a participation rate of 49.4%. The SEIFA IRSAD decile is 7 nationally, above average but not at the top tier, partly because the modest renter share and lower-than-expected apartment density constrain resource scores relative to the strong income position.
Unemployment
1.8%
Labour Force
10,580
Unemployed
188
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.0%
Part-time
31.5%
Participation
49.4%
Employed
831
Occupations
Top Industries
University
46.5%
Postgraduate
12.7%
Born Overseas
33.8%
Dwellings
674
Transport to Work
Kogarah Bay is car-dependent: 87.3% of residents drive to work, well above national norms, while public transport accounts for only 4.1% and walking or cycling 2.3%. Detailed crime statistics are not available for this suburb in the dataset. As an indirect measure, the SEIFA IRSD decile is 5, placing it at the national midpoint for disadvantage, while the IRSAD decile of 7 and the IEO decile of 8 confirm that education and economic resources are above average. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring Kogarah and surrounding suburbs. The volunteering rate of 12.6% is moderate, and only 6.2% of residents need daily assistance, consistent with the relatively healthy age and income profile. The 0.66 square kilometre footprint and 3,162 residents per square kilometre make it one of Sydney's more compact low-rise neighbourhoods.
Drive
87.3%
Public Transport
4.1%
Walk / Cycle
2.3%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+2.15%/yr
(+331 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew 35.8% over the past decade and the current growth rate runs at 2.15% annually, adding roughly 331 residents per year. Overseas migration at 601 net arrivals annually is the engine, more than offsetting a net internal outflow of 101 residents per year. The medium forecast projects the SA2 population rising from 15,387 in 2025 to 16,936 by 2031. Gentrification signals are active, including a net overseas inflow accelerating from 17% to 30% and real income growth of 26.2% over the decade. Rent growth of 25.4% over the same period is above CPI, indicating sustained demand pressure. The affordability trend is improving: the ratio eased from 63.5% in 2011 to 51.3% in 2021, though the suburb remains firmly in the premium tier compared to the NSW median.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+601
Net Internal / yr
-101
Gentrification Signal
Active
Population +51% since 2011, Net internal outflow -101/yr, Strong overseas inflow +601/yr, Accelerating: 17% → 30%
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Kogarah Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kogarah Bay a good suburb to live in?
Kogarah Bay scores decile 8 on the SEIFA IEO index, placing it in the top 20% nationally for education and occupation advantage. Household income sits at the 92.6th percentile, mortgage-to-income is a manageable 27.1%, and 95.1% of dwellings are separate houses. The main trade-off is a $1,825,000 median house price and limited public transport, with 87.3% of residents driving to work.
What is the median house price in Kogarah Bay?
The median house price is $1,825,000. Recent data shows the 2024 peak was $2,050,000, with 2025 recording $1,460,000, a correction of 28.8%. Weekly rent averages $650 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $2,963, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.1%.
What schools are in Kogarah Bay?
No schools are recorded inside the Kogarah Bay boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring Kogarah and surrounding suburbs. Local residents are highly educated, with 46.5% holding university qualifications, which is 16.4 percentage points above the national figure.
Is Kogarah Bay safe?
Detailed crime statistics are not available for Kogarah Bay in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 7 on IRSAD nationally and decile 8 on IEO, both above-average advantage tiers. Only 6.2% of residents (126 people) need daily assistance, consistent with a stable, well-resourced community.
Is Kogarah Bay good for property investment?
Rent of $650 a week against a $1,825,000 median gives a gross yield below 2%, low by investment standards. The 4.7% vacancy rate is above the inner-city norm, and only 13.9% of households rent, limiting the tenant pool. Overseas migration nets 601 arrivals annually, supporting long-term demand. Returns rely more on capital growth than yield, with population up 35.8% over the decade.
How is Kogarah Bay's population changing?
Population grew 35.8% over the past decade and is rising at 2.15% per year, adding about 331 residents annually. The medium forecast projects the broader area growing from 15,387 in 2025 to 16,936 by 2031. Overseas migration at 601 net arrivals per year is the main driver, outweighing a net internal outflow of 101 per year.
What languages are spoken in Kogarah Bay?
About 33.8% of residents were born overseas, which is 12.2 percentage points above the national average. Greek is the leading non-English language with 130 speakers, followed by Arabic (61), Macedonian (49), Cantonese (47) and Mandarin (34), reflecting a Mediterranean and East Asian heritage mix.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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