Kotara South
Household income in the 84.5th percentile nationally sits alongside SEIFA decile 1 scores, and that contradiction defines Kotara South. The suburb records an IRSAD decile of 1 and an IRSD decile of 1, the lowest advantage tier, yet weekly household income of $2,230 places residents above most of the country. The tension stems from a small, aging, owner-occupier population of 1,267 in just 0.59 km2, where 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses and 41.8% of residents hold university qualifications, a rate 11.7 points above the national average.
Population
1,267
Median Age
37.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,230/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
8
Median House
$1.1M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price reached $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data, down 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Because 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses on a compact 0.59 km2 footprint, stock is thin and price discovery is driven by a small number of transactions. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 52.7% and four-plus bedroom homes account for 35.6%, so the offer skews large relative to many comparable NSW suburbs. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Outright owners at 30.6% and mortgage holders at 46.1% together give owner-occupiers 76.7% of the market.
For Buyers
The median house price reached $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data, down 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Because 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses on a compact 0.59 km2 footprint, stock is thin and price discovery is driven by a small number of transactions. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 52.7% and four-plus bedroom homes account for 35.6%, so the offer skews large relative to many comparable NSW suburbs. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Outright owners at 30.6% and mortgage holders at 46.1% together give owner-occupiers 76.7% of the market.
For Investors
Renters make up 23.3% of residents and weekly rent sits at $378, low compared to the $1,075,000 median house price, implying a gross yield below 1.9%. The 5.2% vacancy rate is above comfortable investment levels, suggesting limited rental pressure in a suburb where most residents own. Development activity is modest at 8 applications in 12 months, with recent lodgements covering pool installations and dwelling alterations rather than new dwellings. Migration data shows an average of 9 net internal arrivals and 13 net overseas arrivals per year, providing thin but positive underlying demand. The income base is strong with household income at the 84.5th percentile nationally, which supports tenant quality rather than volume.
Development Activity
Total DAs
72
Last 12 Months
8
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-33.3%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Kotara South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
St James' Primary School
K-6 · 334 students
Demographics
The median age of 37 is 3.0 years below the national average, younger than a slowly aging trajectory might suggest. University qualifications reach 41.8%, which is 11.7 percentage points above the national figure, reflecting a well-educated resident base. Overseas-born residents account for 9.8%, sitting 11.8 points below the national average, consistent with the predominantly Anglo-Celtic ancestry profile led by English (580), Irish (205) and Scottish (169) residents. Average household size is 2.8, slightly above the national average. The dominant household type is couples with children, accounting for 592 of 1,065 families, while couples without children represent 19.2%. Volunteering runs at 17.2% of residents.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
96.4%
Houses
3.6%
Townhouse
N/A
Apartment
Tenure
Separate houses cover 96.4% of dwellings, with only 3.6% semi-detached and no recorded apartments, making Kotara South one of the more purely detached housing markets in the region. Tenure leans heavily to ownership: 30.6% own outright and 46.1% carry a mortgage, leaving just 23.3% renting. Three-bedroom homes are the modal dwelling at 52.7%, followed by four-plus bedroom at 35.6% and two-bedroom at 11.1%. The median house price slipped from $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025, a 4.8% decline in one year, modest by recent NSW correction standards. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4% is manageable relative to household income at the 84.5th percentile, and rent-to-income at 17.0% is well below the rental stress threshold of 30%.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,167
Rent / wk
$378
HH Size
2.8
Personal Income / wk
$935
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.2%
Unoccupied
24
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
17.0%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.4%
Community Profile
Ancestry
Household Composition
19.2%
Couples, no children
1,065
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare dominates employment at 22.0% of workers (100 people), followed by Education at 16.1% (73) and Professional/Technical at 10.8% (49). Public Administration accounts for 8.1% and Construction 7.7%, rounding out a public-service and knowledge-worker profile. By occupation, Professionals are the largest group at 190 workers and Managers follow at 94, together exceeding half the employed workforce. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, below the state average, and the full-time employment rate is 64.8%. The four SEIFA decile 1 scores reflect historical socioeconomic structure rather than current income levels, as the 84.5th-percentile household income sits well above national median. Real income grew 7.7% over the decade, a moderate gain compared to national trends.
Unemployment
12.8%
Labour Force
1,825
Unemployed
234
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
64.8%
Part-time
31.9%
Participation
63.0%
Employed
582
Occupations
Top Industries
University
41.8%
Postgraduate
11.1%
Born Overseas
9.8%
Dwellings
442
Transport to Work
Car dependency is very high at 94.4%, with only 0.9% using public transport and 0.9% walking or cycling, which is typical for a low-density, detached-house suburb in the Newcastle broader region. No schools are recorded within the Kotara South boundary, so families draw on institutions in adjacent suburbs. The SEIFA IRSAD score of 848 places the suburb in decile 1 nationally, the lowest advantage tier, while household income in the 84.5th percentile suggests the index reflects historical asset and occupation patterns rather than current income. The housing stress indicators are positive: mortgage-to-income at 22.4% and rent-to-income at 17.0% are both below stress thresholds, and only 5.8% of residents (71 people) need daily assistance.
Drive
94.4%
Public Transport
0.9%
Walk / Cycle
0.9%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
-0.35%/yr
(-14 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is projected to decline slowly, with the medium forecast falling from around 3,959 in 2026 to 3,891 by 2031, a loss of roughly 14 residents per year at 0.35% annually. The 10-year population change was negative 7.0%, and the suburb is classified as established with an aging trajectory: the senior share rose 6.9 points while the young adult share fell 5.1 points over the decade. Despite this, COVID recovery was complete, with current population of 3,992 exceeding the pre-COVID level of 3,991 after a 2.5% dip. The gentrification score of 10 and stage of not gentrifying means price appreciation is driven by underlying housing market conditions rather than demographic renewal. Net overseas migration of 13 per year partially offsets internal losses.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+13
Net Internal / yr
+9
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
COVID recovered (-2% dip → full recovery)
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Kotara South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kotara South a good suburb to live in?
Kotara South suits owner-occupier families seeking a detached house in a low-density setting. Household income sits at the 84.5th percentile nationally, mortgage-to-income is 22.4% and rent-to-income is 17.0%, both below stress thresholds. University qualifications reach 41.8%, which is 11.7 points above national. The main limitation is very high car dependency at 94.4% and no schools recorded inside the suburb boundary.
What is the median house price in Kotara South?
The median house price is approximately $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data. Prices declined 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167 and weekly rent sits at $378.
What schools are in Kotara South?
No schools are recorded within the Kotara South boundary in this dataset. Residents rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The local population is well educated, with 41.8% holding university qualifications, which is 11.7 percentage points above the national average.
Is Kotara South safe?
Crime data is not available for Kotara South in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 1 on the IRSD index, which historically reflects older suburban patterns. Housing stress indicators are positive: mortgage-to-income is 22.4% and only 5.8% of the 1,267 residents need daily assistance, suggesting a stable residential environment.
Is Kotara South good for property investment?
The investment case is limited by a low gross yield: weekly rent of $378 against a $1,075,000 median implies under 1.9% gross return. The 5.2% vacancy rate is above comfortable levels and development activity is only 8 applications in the past 12 months. Population is forecast to decline by 0.35% annually through 2031, so capital growth depends on broader Newcastle market conditions rather than local demand growth.
How is Kotara South's population changing?
Population fell 7.0% over the past 10 years and is forecast to continue declining at around 0.35% per year, losing roughly 14 residents annually. The trajectory is aging, with the senior share rising 6.9 points and the young adult share falling 5.1 points over the decade. Net overseas migration of 13 per year partly offsets the decline.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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