NSW 2289 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Kotara South

Household income in the 84.5th percentile nationally sits alongside SEIFA decile 1 scores, and that contradiction defines Kotara South. The suburb records an IRSAD decile of 1 and an IRSD decile of 1, the lowest advantage tier, yet weekly household income of $2,230 places residents above most of the country. The tension stems from a small, aging, owner-occupier population of 1,267 in just 0.59 km2, where 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses and 41.8% of residents hold university qualifications, a rate 11.7 points above the national average.

Kotara South urban fabric map

Population

1,267

Median Age

37.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$2,230/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

8

Median House

$1.1M

2024-2025 (PSI derived)

0.59 km²· 2,165.1 people/km²· Family income $2,622/wk

The median house price reached $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data, down 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Because 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses on a compact 0.59 km2 footprint, stock is thin and price discovery is driven by a small number of transactions. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 52.7% and four-plus bedroom homes account for 35.6%, so the offer skews large relative to many comparable NSW suburbs. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Outright owners at 30.6% and mortgage holders at 46.1% together give owner-occupiers 76.7% of the market.

For Buyers

The median house price reached $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data, down 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Because 96.4% of dwellings are separate houses on a compact 0.59 km2 footprint, stock is thin and price discovery is driven by a small number of transactions. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 52.7% and four-plus bedroom homes account for 35.6%, so the offer skews large relative to many comparable NSW suburbs. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Outright owners at 30.6% and mortgage holders at 46.1% together give owner-occupiers 76.7% of the market.

For Investors

Renters make up 23.3% of residents and weekly rent sits at $378, low compared to the $1,075,000 median house price, implying a gross yield below 1.9%. The 5.2% vacancy rate is above comfortable investment levels, suggesting limited rental pressure in a suburb where most residents own. Development activity is modest at 8 applications in 12 months, with recent lodgements covering pool installations and dwelling alterations rather than new dwellings. Migration data shows an average of 9 net internal arrivals and 13 net overseas arrivals per year, providing thin but positive underlying demand. The income base is strong with household income at the 84.5th percentile nationally, which supports tenant quality rather than volume.

Development Activity

Total DAs

72

Last 12 Months

8

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

-33.3%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Renovation / Extension
9
Swimming Pool / Spa
4
Granny Flat / Secondary Dwelling
3
Fencing
1
New Dwelling
1
Subdivision
1
Demolition
1

Schools in Kotara South iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

St James' Primary School

ICSEA 1104 Primary Catholic

K-6 · 334 students

Demographics

The median age of 37 is 3.0 years below the national average, younger than a slowly aging trajectory might suggest. University qualifications reach 41.8%, which is 11.7 percentage points above the national figure, reflecting a well-educated resident base. Overseas-born residents account for 9.8%, sitting 11.8 points below the national average, consistent with the predominantly Anglo-Celtic ancestry profile led by English (580), Irish (205) and Scottish (169) residents. Average household size is 2.8, slightly above the national average. The dominant household type is couples with children, accounting for 592 of 1,065 families, while couples without children represent 19.2%. Volunteering runs at 17.2% of residents.

Age Distribution

0-14
24.6%
15-24
11.2%
25-44
28.0%
45-64
21.9%
65+
14.4%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
0.7%
2 bed
11.1%
3 bed
52.7%
4+ bed
35.6%

Dwelling Structure

96.4%

Houses

3.6%

Townhouse

N/A

Apartment

Tenure

Own 30.6% Mortgage 46.1% Rent 23.3%

Separate houses cover 96.4% of dwellings, with only 3.6% semi-detached and no recorded apartments, making Kotara South one of the more purely detached housing markets in the region. Tenure leans heavily to ownership: 30.6% own outright and 46.1% carry a mortgage, leaving just 23.3% renting. Three-bedroom homes are the modal dwelling at 52.7%, followed by four-plus bedroom at 35.6% and two-bedroom at 11.1%. The median house price slipped from $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025, a 4.8% decline in one year, modest by recent NSW correction standards. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 22.4% is manageable relative to household income at the 84.5th percentile, and rent-to-income at 17.0% is well below the rental stress threshold of 30%.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$2,167

Rent / wk

$378

HH Size

2.8

Personal Income / wk

$935

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

5.2%

Unoccupied

24

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

17.0%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

22.4%

Community Profile

Ancestry

English
580
Irish
205
Scottish
169
Other
73
German
47
Ancestry NS
42

Household Composition

19.2%

Couples, no children

1,065

Total families

Economy & Employment

Healthcare dominates employment at 22.0% of workers (100 people), followed by Education at 16.1% (73) and Professional/Technical at 10.8% (49). Public Administration accounts for 8.1% and Construction 7.7%, rounding out a public-service and knowledge-worker profile. By occupation, Professionals are the largest group at 190 workers and Managers follow at 94, together exceeding half the employed workforce. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, below the state average, and the full-time employment rate is 64.8%. The four SEIFA decile 1 scores reflect historical socioeconomic structure rather than current income levels, as the 84.5th-percentile household income sits well above national median. Real income grew 7.7% over the decade, a moderate gain compared to national trends.

Unemployment

12.8%

Labour Force

1,825

Unemployed

234

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
1
Disadvantage
1
Economic resources
2
Education & occupation
1

Full-time

64.8%

Part-time

31.9%

Participation

63.0%

Employed

582

Occupations

Professionals 190
Managers 94
Community/Personal 69
Clerical/Admin 67
Sales 53
Machinery/Drivers 29
Labourers 28

Top Industries

Healthcare 22.0%
Education 16.1%
Professional/Tech 10.8%
Public Admin 8.1%
Construction 7.7%

University

41.8%

Postgraduate

11.1%

Born Overseas

9.8%

Dwellings

442

Transport to Work

Car dependency is very high at 94.4%, with only 0.9% using public transport and 0.9% walking or cycling, which is typical for a low-density, detached-house suburb in the Newcastle broader region. No schools are recorded within the Kotara South boundary, so families draw on institutions in adjacent suburbs. The SEIFA IRSAD score of 848 places the suburb in decile 1 nationally, the lowest advantage tier, while household income in the 84.5th percentile suggests the index reflects historical asset and occupation patterns rather than current income. The housing stress indicators are positive: mortgage-to-income at 22.4% and rent-to-income at 17.0% are both below stress thresholds, and only 5.8% of residents (71 people) need daily assistance.

Drive

94.4%

Public Transport

0.9%

Walk / Cycle

0.9%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.35%/yr

(-14 people/yr)

Established

Population is projected to decline slowly, with the medium forecast falling from around 3,959 in 2026 to 3,891 by 2031, a loss of roughly 14 residents per year at 0.35% annually. The 10-year population change was negative 7.0%, and the suburb is classified as established with an aging trajectory: the senior share rose 6.9 points while the young adult share fell 5.1 points over the decade. Despite this, COVID recovery was complete, with current population of 3,992 exceeding the pre-COVID level of 3,991 after a 2.5% dip. The gentrification score of 10 and stage of not gentrifying means price appreciation is driven by underlying housing market conditions rather than demographic renewal. Net overseas migration of 13 per year partially offsets internal losses.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Balanced

Net Overseas / yr

+13

Net Internal / yr

+9

10

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

COVID recovered (-2% dip → full recovery)

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Kotara South compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 26%
Household Income
Top 16%
Rent Level
Top 21%
Renters
Top 42%
Uni Educated
Top 16%
Public Transport
Bottom 13%
Born Overseas
Bottom 28%
Density
Top 7%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Kotara South a good suburb to live in?

Kotara South suits owner-occupier families seeking a detached house in a low-density setting. Household income sits at the 84.5th percentile nationally, mortgage-to-income is 22.4% and rent-to-income is 17.0%, both below stress thresholds. University qualifications reach 41.8%, which is 11.7 points above national. The main limitation is very high car dependency at 94.4% and no schools recorded inside the suburb boundary.

What is the median house price in Kotara South?

The median house price is approximately $1,075,000 based on recent PSI data. Prices declined 4.8% from a peak of $1,100,000 in 2024 to $1,047,500 in 2025. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,167 and weekly rent sits at $378.

What schools are in Kotara South?

No schools are recorded within the Kotara South boundary in this dataset. Residents rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The local population is well educated, with 41.8% holding university qualifications, which is 11.7 percentage points above the national average.

Is Kotara South safe?

Crime data is not available for Kotara South in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 1 on the IRSD index, which historically reflects older suburban patterns. Housing stress indicators are positive: mortgage-to-income is 22.4% and only 5.8% of the 1,267 residents need daily assistance, suggesting a stable residential environment.

Is Kotara South good for property investment?

The investment case is limited by a low gross yield: weekly rent of $378 against a $1,075,000 median implies under 1.9% gross return. The 5.2% vacancy rate is above comfortable levels and development activity is only 8 applications in the past 12 months. Population is forecast to decline by 0.35% annually through 2031, so capital growth depends on broader Newcastle market conditions rather than local demand growth.

How is Kotara South's population changing?

Population fell 7.0% over the past 10 years and is forecast to continue declining at around 0.35% per year, losing roughly 14 residents annually. The trajectory is aging, with the senior share rising 6.9 points and the young adult share falling 5.1 points over the decade. Net overseas migration of 13 per year partly offsets the decline.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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