Kurnell
A $1,672,500 median house price in a suburb of just 2,528 residents puts Kurnell among the more exclusive pockets of southern Sydney. Household income sits in the 82.2nd percentile nationally, yet the suburb is far less densely settled than comparable premium areas, with only 130.7 people per square kilometre across its 19.35 square kilometres. SEIFA scores rank at decile 9 for disadvantage (IRSD) and advantage (IRSAD), placing Kurnell comfortably in the top tier of NSW suburbs. The dominant story here is detached houses: 95.8% of dwellings are separate houses, the highest concentration you will find in any coastal suburb of this price range.
Population
2,528
Median Age
38.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,161/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
27
Median House
$1.7M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
House prices moved from $1,742,500 in 2024 down to $1,505,000 in 2025, a fall of 13.6% in a single year, which is notable compared to the broader Sydney market. The PSI-derived current median sits at $1,672,500. Stock is almost entirely separate houses at 95.8%, with 43.3% of dwellings having four or more bedrooms and 41.7% having three, so Kurnell attracts family buyers rather than downsizers or investors chasing apartments. Mortgage-to-income at 27.8% stays below the 30% stress threshold, meaning typical households can service loans at current prices without distress. Outright owners represent 34.5% of residents, while 48.5% carry a mortgage, a ratio that points to genuine owner-occupier demand rather than speculative churn.
For Buyers
House prices moved from $1,742,500 in 2024 down to $1,505,000 in 2025, a fall of 13.6% in a single year, which is notable compared to the broader Sydney market. The PSI-derived current median sits at $1,672,500. Stock is almost entirely separate houses at 95.8%, with 43.3% of dwellings having four or more bedrooms and 41.7% having three, so Kurnell attracts family buyers rather than downsizers or investors chasing apartments. Mortgage-to-income at 27.8% stays below the 30% stress threshold, meaning typical households can service loans at current prices without distress. Outright owners represent 34.5% of residents, while 48.5% carry a mortgage, a ratio that points to genuine owner-occupier demand rather than speculative churn.
For Investors
Investors face a thin rental market here. Only 16.9% of Kurnell residents rent, well below the national average, and the vacancy rate sits at 4.6%, above the tight sub-2% threshold typical of high-demand rental suburbs. Weekly rent averages $550. Against a $1,505,000 to $1,672,500 price range, that rent implies gross yields under 2%, low even by Sydney standards. Development activity logged 26 applications in the past 12 months, modest given the suburban scale but pointing to steady owner-driven improvement work rather than speculative subdivision. Overseas migration adds a net 298 residents annually to the SA2 area, providing some population tailwind, though net internal migration runs at negative 124 per year.
Development Activity
Total DAs
172
Last 12 Months
27
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+35.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Kurnell iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Kurnell Public School
K-6 · 211 students
Demographics
Kurnell's median age of 38 sits 2.0 years below the national figure, making it slightly younger than comparable high-income areas. The overseas-born share at 12.1% is 9.5 percentage points below national, reflecting a predominantly Australian-born community. Ancestry is Anglo-Celtic in character: English (1,040), Irish (317) and Scottish (228) are the three leading ancestries. Average household size of 3.1 is 0.6 above the national figure, consistent with the dominant couples-with-children profile where 1,083 families are couples with children compared to 413 couples without. The population has aged noticeably over the decade, with the senior share rising 5.2 points while the working-age share fell 3.7 points, a trajectory already classifying Kurnell as aging.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
95.8%
Houses
2.8%
Townhouse
0.4%
Apartment
Tenure
Kurnell's housing stock is almost monolithic: 95.8% separate houses, 2.8% semi-detached and just 0.4% apartments. Four-plus bedroom homes account for 43.3% of dwellings and three-bedroom homes 41.7%, making small-dwelling stock extremely rare. Tenure is mortgage-dominated, with 48.5% of residents carrying a mortgage and only 16.9% renting, lower than both state and national averages. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,600. Prices peaked at $1,742,500 in 2024 before falling to $1,505,000 in 2025, a decline of 13.6% in one year, yet outright ownership at 34.5% signals long-term owner confidence in the area. Rent-to-income at 25.5% keeps existing tenants below the 30% stress threshold.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,600
Rent / wk
$550
HH Size
3.1
Personal Income / wk
$811
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.6%
Unoccupied
38
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
25.5%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.8%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
18.9%
Couples, no children
2,186
Total families
Economy & Employment
Construction is the dominant local industry at 19.6% of employed residents (155 workers), well above what you would expect in a suburb at this income level, because Kurnell sits adjacent to industrial and port infrastructure. Healthcare employs 12.0% (95 workers) and Education 10.4% (82 workers), giving the suburb a service-sector base alongside its blue-collar construction backbone. By occupation, Professionals (201) and Clerical/Admin (185) lead, followed by Community/Personal Service (158) and Managers (152), a mix consistent with SEIFA IEO decile 8. The unemployment rate is 3.4% and full-time employment reaches 60.9%. Household income in the 82.2nd percentile nationally reflects above-average earnings despite the blue-collar industry mix.
Unemployment
2.6%
Labour Force
15,819
Unemployed
404
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
60.9%
Part-time
35.7%
Participation
55.3%
Employed
1,034
Occupations
Top Industries
University
17.3%
Postgraduate
2.5%
Born Overseas
12.1%
Dwellings
789
Transport to Work
Transport access is the key trade-off in Kurnell. A full 90.7% of residents drive to work, among the highest car-dependence rates in greater Sydney, and only 0.9% use public transport. This reflects geographic isolation on the Kurnell Peninsula, with limited bus services and no rail connection. In exchange, the suburb scores decile 9 on IRSAD (advantage) and decile 9 on IRSD (disadvantage), placing it well above average on both national indices. Volunteering runs at 11.2% and only 4.6% of residents need daily assistance. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs such as Cronulla. Crime statistics are not available at the suburb level for Kurnell.
Drive
90.7%
Public Transport
0.9%
Walk / Cycle
4.5%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.6%/yr
(+153 people/yr)
EstablishedThe broader SA2 area that includes Kurnell recorded population growth of 0.6% annually over the recent period, equivalent to about 153 persons per year. The 10-year population change reached 12.5%, above the national pace for established suburbs. Medium forecasts project the SA2 population growing from around 25,614 today to 26,404 by 2031. The growth driver is overseas migration at a net positive 298 residents per year, offsetting net internal outflow of negative 124 per year. The gentrification score is low at 14, classified as not gentrifying, because the suburb already sits in the top SEIFA advantage deciles with little room to move upward. Rent grew 35.1% over the decade while real incomes grew 11.9%, compressing affordability for new renters.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+298
Net Internal / yr
-124
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +12% since 2011, Net internal outflow -124/yr, Strong overseas inflow +298/yr
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Kurnell compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kurnell a good suburb to live in?
Kurnell ranks in decile 9 nationally on both IRSAD (advantage) and IRSD (disadvantage), placing it well above the national average on both indices. Household income sits at the 82.2nd percentile and mortgage-to-income at 27.8% stays below the stress threshold. The main trade-off is car dependence: 90.7% of residents drive to work and only 0.9% use public transport, reflecting the peninsula location.
What is the median house price in Kurnell?
The current PSI-derived median house price is $1,672,500. Prices reached $1,742,500 in 2024 before falling to $1,505,000 in 2025, a decline of 13.6% in one year. Monthly mortgage repayments average $2,600 and weekly rent averages $550 for the 16.9% of residents who rent.
What schools are in Kurnell?
No schools are recorded within the Kurnell suburb boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in adjacent suburbs such as Cronulla. The suburb's university qualification rate of 17.3% is 12.8 percentage points below the national figure, suggesting most higher-educated residents commute to work and school outside the peninsula.
Is Kurnell safe?
Suburb-level crime statistics are not available for Kurnell in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, Kurnell scores decile 9 on the IRSD index of relative disadvantage, placing it in the top tier nationally. Only 4.6% of its 2,528 residents need daily assistance, and household income sits at the 82.2nd percentile, both consistent with a low-disadvantage community.
Is Kurnell good for property investment?
The investment case is mixed. Weekly rent of $550 against a $1,505,000 to $1,672,500 price range gives gross yields under 2%, low by Sydney standards, and the vacancy rate at 4.6% is above the tight sub-2% threshold of high-demand rental markets. Prices fell 13.6% from 2024 to 2025. Only 16.9% of residents rent, limiting the tenant pool. Overseas migration providing net 298 arrivals per year to the broader area offers some demand support.
How is Kurnell's population changing?
The broader SA2 area is growing at 0.6% per year and recorded a 12.5% increase over 10 years. Medium forecasts project the area population reaching 26,404 by 2031 from around 25,614 today. Overseas migration drives growth at a net positive 298 per year, partially offset by net internal outflow of 124 per year. The suburb is on an aging trajectory, with the senior share rising 5.2 points over the decade.
How much development activity is there in Kurnell?
Kurnell recorded 26 development applications in the past 12 months. Recent applications include new dwelling construction and dwelling house modifications, consistent with an established owner-occupier suburb where the focus is improvement of existing stock. The suburb has 95.8% separate houses, leaving limited scope for multi-unit development under typical zoning.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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