Lemon Tree Passage
A median age of 52, sitting 12 years above the national figure, is the defining fact about Lemon Tree Passage. The suburb of 2,686 residents in the Port Stephens area combines a detached-house dominated stock (87.9% separate houses) with a 12.8% vacancy rate, unusually high for a small coastal community. Household income falls in just the 16.3rd percentile nationally, yet the median house price reached $710,500 in 2024-2025. These numbers tell the same story: an aging, established community where outright owners (44.8%) are the largest tenure group, and where university qualifications at 14.4% run nearly 16 points below national average.
Population
2,686
Median Age
52.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,071/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
19
Median House
$710K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price is $710,500, rising from $700,000 in 2024 to $735,000 in 2025, a 5.0% gain. The housing stock is overwhelmingly detached houses at 87.9%, well above the state average. Three-bedroom dwellings account for 53.2% and four-plus bedroom 31.1%, so larger family homes dominate. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,600, but mortgage-to-income sits at 34.5%, above the 30% stress threshold, because household incomes rank in the 16.3rd percentile nationally. Outright owners at 44.8% exceed mortgage holders (28.5%), pointing to a settled, debt-free owner base.
For Buyers
The median house price is $710,500, rising from $700,000 in 2024 to $735,000 in 2025, a 5.0% gain. The housing stock is overwhelmingly detached houses at 87.9%, well above the state average. Three-bedroom dwellings account for 53.2% and four-plus bedroom 31.1%, so larger family homes dominate. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,600, but mortgage-to-income sits at 34.5%, above the 30% stress threshold, because household incomes rank in the 16.3rd percentile nationally. Outright owners at 44.8% exceed mortgage holders (28.5%), pointing to a settled, debt-free owner base.
For Investors
Renters make up 26.7% of households and weekly rent averages $365, implying a gross yield near 2.7% against the $710,500 median, below typical regional NSW benchmarks. The 12.8% vacancy rate is the critical caution: it signals rental supply exceeds demand in this small coastal community. Development is light at 16 applications in 12 months. Net migration is balanced, with internal arrivals averaging 39 and overseas 25 annually. Rent grew 43.1% over the prior decade compared to just 5.0% real income growth, which worsened affordability but also reflects the low demand base that the vacancy rate confirms.
Development Activity
Total DAs
140
Last 12 Months
19
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-24.0%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Demographics
The median age of 52 sits 12 years above the national figure, and the trend is accelerating: the senior share grew 6.6 points over the decade while working-age share fell 3.1 points. Overseas-born residents at 12.4% run 9.2 points below the national average, a predominantly Australian-born population. Ancestry leans Anglo-Celtic, led by English (1,242), Scottish (314) and Irish (313). University qualifications at 14.4% are 15.7 points below national, because the retirement-age majority left formal study decades ago. Couples without children make up 40.0% of families, the dominant household type, consistent with this post-child-rearing demographic.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
87.9%
Houses
9.1%
Townhouse
1.4%
Apartment
Tenure
Outright owners (44.8%) outnumber mortgage holders (28.5%) and renters (26.7%), pointing to a long-held, debt-free ownership base rather than a churn market. Separate houses make up 87.9% of the stock, apartments just 1.4%. Three-bedroom homes account for 53.2% and four-plus bedroom 31.1%. Price rose from $700,000 in 2024 to $735,000 in 2025, a 5.0% one-year gain. Both rent-to-income (34.1%) and mortgage-to-income (34.5%) exceed the 30% stress threshold, a strain explained by incomes in the 16.3rd percentile nationally rather than by high prices relative to state benchmarks.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,600
Rent / wk
$365
HH Size
2.3
Personal Income / wk
$533
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
12.8%
Unoccupied
163
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
34.1% stressed
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
34.5% stressed
Community Profile
Ancestry
Household Composition
40.0%
Couples, no children
2,016
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads the local economy at 22.2% of workers (124), followed by Construction (11.1%, 62 workers) and Public Administration (8.8%, 49). Unemployment at 7.0% runs above the national average, partly because participation is just 39.8%, depressed by 1,143 residents not in the labour force, most of them retirees. SEIFA deciles are low: IRSAD decile 2 and IEO decile 1 nationally, reflecting limited education and occupational advantage. IER at decile 4 is relatively higher because outright homeownership at 44.8% lifts measured economic resources above what incomes alone would suggest.
Unemployment
5.2%
Labour Force
2,768
Unemployed
145
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
58.3%
Part-time
34.7%
Participation
39.8%
Employed
844
Occupations
Top Industries
University
14.4%
Postgraduate
2.7%
Born Overseas
12.4%
Dwellings
1,110
Transport to Work
Car dependency is near-total: 92.7% of residents drive to work, well above the national average, because public transport options are limited in this coastal location. Walking and cycling cover just 2.9% of journeys. No schools are recorded inside the suburb boundary, so families depend on Port Stephens institutions nearby. Crime data is not available in the dataset. IRSD decile 2 places the suburb in the lower national tier for relative disadvantage. The volunteering rate is 14.4% and 8.8% of residents (221 people) need daily assistance, both consistent with the median age of 52, which is 12 years above the national median.
Drive
92.7%
Public Transport
N/A
Walk / Cycle
2.9%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.62%/yr
(+44 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grows at 0.62% annually, adding around 44 people per year, and the broader SA2 expanded 9.0% over the decade. Medium forecasts project the wider area reaching 7,349 by 2031 from 7,065 in 2025. Migration is balanced: net internal arrivals average 39 and overseas 25 annually. The gentrification score sits at 40 with early signs of movement, though the suburb-level reading is not gentrifying, meaning organic demographic pressure rather than investor-led transformation. Affordability worsened from 58.6% in 2011 to 64.9% in 2021, driven by 43.1% rent growth against only 5.0% real income growth, compressing household budgets.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+25
Net Internal / yr
+39
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Lemon Tree Passage compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Lemon Tree Passage a good suburb to live in?
Lemon Tree Passage suits established residents and retirees well, with 44.8% of homes owned outright and 87.9% of dwellings being separate houses. However, it ranks in decile 1 on IEO and decile 2 on IRSAD nationally, indicating below-average socioeconomic advantage, and household incomes sit in just the 16.3rd percentile. Car dependency is high at 92.7%.
What is the median house price in Lemon Tree Passage?
The median house price is $710,500, up from $700,000 in 2024 to $735,000 in 2025, a gain of 5.0% over the year. Weekly rent averages $365 and monthly mortgage repayments run around $1,600, though mortgage-to-income at 34.5% exceeds the 30% stress threshold.
What schools are in Lemon Tree Passage?
No schools are recorded inside the Lemon Tree Passage suburb boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in nearby Port Stephens communities. The local university qualification rate is 14.4%, which is 15.7 points below the national average, reflecting the older and more retirement-oriented population of 2,686 residents.
Is Lemon Tree Passage safe?
Detailed crime statistics are not available for Lemon Tree Passage in this dataset. As context, the suburb scores in decile 2 on both IRSAD and IRSD nationally, placing it in the lower advantage tier. About 8.8% of residents (221 people) need daily assistance, consistent with the older median age of 52, which is 12 years above the national figure.
Is Lemon Tree Passage good for property investment?
Weekly rent of $365 against a $710,500 median implies a gross yield near 2.7%, below typical regional NSW benchmarks. The 12.8% vacancy rate is high and signals thin rental demand. Rent grew 43.1% over the prior decade, but the population grows slowly at 0.62% annually, so capital growth is likely gradual rather than rapid.
How is Lemon Tree Passage's population changing?
Population grows at 0.62% annually, adding about 44 people per year to the current 2,686. Over the past 10 years the broader area grew 9.0%. The profile is aging, with the senior share up 6.6 points and working-age share down 3.1 points over the decade, driven by net internal migration of 39 and overseas migration of 25 annually.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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