Modbury Heights
Detached houses make up 91.8% of the dwelling stock here, one of the most house-dominated profiles in this batch, with apartments at just 0.2%. That physical form shapes everything else: a median age of 40, an average household size of 2.6, and a median house price of $912,500 in 1Q 2026 that jumped 8.6% in a single year from $840,000. The crime rate of 21.6 per 1,000 residents is low compared with denser inner-city suburbs, and the 3.8% vacancy rate is tight. SEIFA places the area mid-pack, with IRSAD in decile 5 and IRSD in decile 6, signalling middle Australia rather than either disadvantage or premium status. The senior share has grown 8.2 points while the working-age share fell 5.1 points, marking an aging family suburb.
Population
6,995
Median Age
40.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,573/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
87
Median House
$912K
Median 1Q 2026
The $912,500 median (1Q 2026) rose 8.6% from $840,000 a year earlier, a faster move than most established suburbs because tight 3.8% vacancy and almost no apartment alternative (0.2%) concentrate demand into separate houses, which form 91.8% of stock. Buyers get space rather than density: 62.6% of homes have three bedrooms and 29.8% have four or more. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,495, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 21.9%, below the stress threshold because 45.8% of households already carry a mortgage and incomes sit near the median at the 51.3rd percentile. Owner-occupiers dominate, with 36.5% owning outright and 45.8% mortgaged, leaving renters a minority at 17.7%. This is a settled owner-occupier market, not a transient one, with a turnover rate of just 16.7%.
For Buyers
The $912,500 median (1Q 2026) rose 8.6% from $840,000 a year earlier, a faster move than most established suburbs because tight 3.8% vacancy and almost no apartment alternative (0.2%) concentrate demand into separate houses, which form 91.8% of stock. Buyers get space rather than density: 62.6% of homes have three bedrooms and 29.8% have four or more. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,495, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 21.9%, below the stress threshold because 45.8% of households already carry a mortgage and incomes sit near the median at the 51.3rd percentile. Owner-occupiers dominate, with 36.5% owning outright and 45.8% mortgaged, leaving renters a minority at 17.7%. This is a settled owner-occupier market, not a transient one, with a turnover rate of just 16.7%.
For Investors
Renters are a thin 17.7% of households, so the tenant pool is shallow compared with renter-heavy inner suburbs, but the 3.8% vacancy rate is tight and keeps lettings moving. Weekly rent of $340 against the $912,500 median yields roughly 1.9% gross, low because capital values have run ahead of rents, with the median climbing 8.6% in a year while rent growth over the longer trend was 24.5%. Development activity is real, with 80 applications lodged in 12 months, though the samples skew to pools, retaining walls and additions rather than new dwellings, so supply expansion is limited. Net overseas migration of 144 per year supports demand, but it is exactly offset by internal outflow of 144 per year, leaving population flat. The low crime rate of 21.6 per 1,000 is a tenant draw.
Development Activity
Total DAs
384
Last 12 Months
87
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+29.9%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Modbury Heights iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
The Heights School
U, R-12 · 1811 students
Demographics
The median age of 40 matches the national figure, but the trajectory is aging: the senior share rose 8.2 points while the working-age share fell 5.1 points over the period. Overseas-born residents at 28.3% sit 6.7 points above the national average, giving more cultural mix than the house-and-yard form suggests. English ancestry leads at 2,872, followed by Scottish (590), Irish (494) and German (484), a clear Anglo-Celtic base, while Punjabi (114) is the top non-English language ahead of Arabic (43) and Mandarin (33), reflecting recent South Asian arrival. University qualifications at 30.1% are around the national mark. Couples with children (2,513) outnumber couples without children (1,548) by a wide margin, consistent with the three and four bedroom housing stock and the 2.6 average household size, marginally above national.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
91.8%
Houses
8.0%
Townhouse
0.2%
Apartment
Tenure
Owner-occupiers dominate tenure: 45.8% hold mortgages, 36.5% own outright, and renters are a minority at 17.7%, well below the national renter share. The stock is overwhelmingly detached, with 91.8% separate houses, 8.0% semi-detached and just 0.2% apartments, so buyers choosing this suburb are choosing land. Three-bedroom homes account for 62.6% and four-plus bedrooms 29.8%, leaving only 7.6% with two or fewer. The median house price climbed from $840,000 (1Q 2025) to $912,500 (1Q 2026), an 8.6% rise. Despite that, mortgage-to-income at 21.9% and rent-to-income at 21.6% both sit below stress thresholds, because prices track local incomes near the 51.3rd percentile rather than running far ahead of them. The mid-range SEIFA IER decile of 6 is consistent with this owner-heavy, middle-income tenure mix.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,495
Rent / wk
$340
HH Size
2.6
Personal Income / wk
$782
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
3.8%
Unoccupied
103
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.6%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
21.9%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
26.1%
Couples, no children
5,937
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads employment at 21.2% (477 workers), well above its national share and a steady, recession-resistant base, followed by Education at 12.4% (279), Construction at 9.7% (219), Public Admin at 9.4% (211) and Manufacturing at 7.5% (170). The occupation mix is broad: Professionals lead at 631, but Clerical/Admin (556), Community/Personal (494) and Managers (358) are close behind, a middle-skill profile rather than a knowledge-economy concentration, consistent with the IEO decile of 5. Full-time employment runs at 63.2% and unemployment at 5.0% is near average, while participation at 61.0% is held down by the aging population, with 1,870 residents not in the labour force. Real income grew only 3.2% over the decade, modest growth that helps explain why affordability stayed stable at around 42%.
Unemployment
2.3%
Labour Force
10,811
Unemployed
247
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
63.2%
Part-time
31.8%
Participation
61.0%
Employed
3,271
Occupations
Top Industries
University
30.1%
Postgraduate
7.7%
Born Overseas
28.3%
Dwellings
2,622
Transport to Work
The low crime rate of 21.6 per 1,000 residents, with 151 total offences, is a core draw and sits well below the rates of dense inner-city suburbs. Transport is heavily car-based, with 85.6% driving, 8.9% on public transport and just 1.0% walking or cycling, so the suburb suits households with vehicles rather than those wanting walkable amenity. SEIFA reads as solid middle Australia, with IRSD in decile 6 and IRSAD in decile 5, neither disadvantaged nor premium. The detached, three and four bedroom housing stock (92.4% of homes have three or more bedrooms) and the 2.6 average household size make it a family and downsizer-friendly setting. Need for assistance at 5.1% and a volunteering rate of 13.6% round out a settled, low-churn community with a 16.7% turnover rate.
Drive
85.6%
Public Transport
8.9%
Walk / Cycle
1.0%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
-0.03%/yr
(-5 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is effectively flat, with the trend pointing to a slight decline of 0.03% per year, about 5 fewer residents annually, and a 10-year change of just 1.6%. The driver mix explains the stall: net overseas migration of 144 per year is cancelled out exactly by net internal outflow of 144 per year, so arrivals replace departures without adding numbers. The gentrification score of 0 places it firmly in the not gentrifying band, with internal outflow flagged as the key signal. The composition is shifting faster than the headcount: the senior share gained 8.2 points while the working-age share lost 5.1 points, an aging established suburb. Affordability held stable, moving only from 42.7% in 2011 to 41.9% in 2021, and rent grew 24.5% over the period against modest 3.2% real income growth.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+144
Net Internal / yr
-144
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Net internal outflow -144/yr
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
151
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
21.6
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Modbury Heights compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Modbury Heights a good suburb to live in?
It suits families and owner-occupiers who want space and safety. The crime rate of 21.6 per 1,000 is low, 91.8% of homes are detached houses, and 92.4% have three or more bedrooms. SEIFA sits mid-range with IRSD in decile 6. The trade-off is car dependence, with 85.6% driving and only 8.9% using public transport.
What is the median house price in Modbury Heights?
The median house price is $912,500 as of 1Q 2026, up 8.6% from $840,000 a year earlier in 1Q 2025. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,495 and weekly rent is $340, giving a gross rental yield of roughly 1.9%. The 3.8% vacancy rate is tight.
What schools are in Modbury Heights?
No schools are recorded inside the suburb boundary in this dataset, so families typically rely on schools in neighbouring Modbury and Modbury North. Education is a significant local employer at 12.4% of jobs (279 workers), reflecting nearby campuses that serve the wider area.
Is Modbury Heights safe?
Yes, by the data it is relatively safe. The crime rate is 21.6 per 1,000 residents, with 151 total offences recorded, which is low compared with dense inner-city suburbs that run several times higher. The settled owner-occupier base, with a turnover rate of just 16.7%, is consistent with a stable residential environment.
Is Modbury Heights good for property investment?
It favours capital growth over yield. The median rose 8.6% in a year to $912,500, but rent of $340 a week gives a gross yield near 1.9%, and renters are only 17.7% of households, a shallow tenant pool. The tight 3.8% vacancy rate helps, but flat population growth of -0.03% per year limits demand upside.
How is Modbury Heights's population changing?
The population of about 6,995 is essentially flat, with a projected slight decline of 0.03% per year and 10-year change of only 1.6%. Net overseas migration of 144 per year is offset exactly by internal outflow of 144 per year. The suburb is aging, with the senior share up 8.2 points and the working-age share down 5.1 points.
Is there much new development in Modbury Heights?
Development is moderate, with 80 planning applications lodged in the past 12 months. Recent samples skew to additions, retaining walls and swimming pools rather than new dwellings, so the established detached-house character (91.8% separate houses) is largely being maintained rather than redeveloped.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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