Modbury
Median house prices jumped 17.3% in a single year here, from $767,500 in early 2025 to $900,000 by early 2026, yet household income sits in just the 34.1st percentile nationally, a gap that defines the suburb. Located 13km northeast of Adelaide, this established pocket of 5,593 residents leans heavily detached, with 75.7% separate houses and only 5.7% apartments across its 3.32 sq km. The median age of 37 runs 3.0 years below national, university qualifications reach 38.2% (8.1 points above national), and 39.7% of residents were born overseas, 18.1 points above the national figure. The one clear drawback is a crime rate of 202.0 per 1,000 residents, well above typical metropolitan levels.
Population
5,593
Median Age
37.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,342/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
90
Median House
$900K
Median 1Q 2026
The $900,000 median house price climbed 17.3% from $767,500 a year earlier, a steep move that strains a market where household income ranks in the 34.1st percentile nationally. Buyers get genuine houses rather than units: 75.7% of dwellings are separate houses and 60.4% carry three bedrooms, with 4-plus bedroom homes a further 16.2%, so the stock suits families more than downsizers. Despite the price run, monthly mortgage repayments average $1,430 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 24.6%, below the 30% stress threshold, which reflects a base of long-held loans rather than fresh purchases at today's median. Outright owners (31.5%) and mortgage holders (35.3%) together make this an owner-occupier suburb, with 33.2% renting.
For Buyers
The $900,000 median house price climbed 17.3% from $767,500 a year earlier, a steep move that strains a market where household income ranks in the 34.1st percentile nationally. Buyers get genuine houses rather than units: 75.7% of dwellings are separate houses and 60.4% carry three bedrooms, with 4-plus bedroom homes a further 16.2%, so the stock suits families more than downsizers. Despite the price run, monthly mortgage repayments average $1,430 and the mortgage-to-income ratio is 24.6%, below the 30% stress threshold, which reflects a base of long-held loans rather than fresh purchases at today's median. Outright owners (31.5%) and mortgage holders (35.3%) together make this an owner-occupier suburb, with 33.2% renting.
For Investors
A 33.2% renter share and weekly rent of $315 give landlords a workable tenant pool, and rent has grown 26.0% over the measured period, faster than incomes. The 5.5% vacancy rate is moderate, signalling steady but not tight demand. Against the $900,000 median, that rent implies a gross yield near 1.8%, low, so the case rests on capital growth: prices rose 17.3% in the year to early 2026. Demand support comes almost entirely from overseas migration, which adds about 239 residents a year to the wider area against negligible net internal movement of 2. Development activity is modest at 78 applications over 12 months, including land divisions and ancillary dwellings, so new supply stays limited relative to the population trend.
Development Activity
Total DAs
595
Last 12 Months
90
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-7.2%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Modbury iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Modbury West School
R-6 · 264 students
Modbury High School
U, 7-12 · 926 students
Demographics
The median age of 37 is 3.0 years below national, a younger profile than most established suburbs and consistent with strong overseas inflows. Overseas-born residents reach 39.7%, which is 18.1 points above national, and the ancestry mix runs English (1,727) ahead of Indian (487), Scottish (371) and Irish (336). The top non-English languages are Punjabi (152 speakers), Mandarin (73) and Hindi (68), and Hinduism is the second religion (435 residents) behind Christianity (2,073), signalling a sizable South Asian community. University qualifications at 38.2% sit 8.1 points above national, while average household size of 2.3 is 0.2 below national, with couples-with-children families (1,524) outnumbering couples without (1,124).
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
75.7%
Houses
18.6%
Townhouse
5.7%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure is evenly spread: 35.3% hold a mortgage, 33.2% rent and 31.5% own outright, a balance that marks an owner-occupier suburb still turning over to new buyers. The stock is overwhelmingly detached at 75.7% separate houses, with semi-detached at 18.6% and apartments just 5.7%, so density stays low at 1,684 residents per sq km. Three-bedroom dwellings dominate at 60.4%, with 4-plus bedrooms at 16.2% and two-bedroom homes 19.8%. The median house price rose from $767,500 to $900,000 across 2025-2026, a 17.3% one-year gain. Mortgage-to-income at 24.6% and rent-to-income at 23.5% both sit below the 30% stress threshold, comfortable despite incomes in the 34.1st percentile, because much of the housing is held on older, smaller loans.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General (Median 1Q 2026)
Mortgage / mo
$1,430
Rent / wkiABS Census 2021 median across all dwelling types. Current market rents are typically higher.
$315
Census 2021
HH Size
2.3
Personal Income / wk
$683
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.5%
Unoccupied
130
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
23.5%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
24.6%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
28.0%
Couples, no children
4,020
Total families
Economy & Employment
The workforce concentrates in Healthcare, which leads at 22.5% (412 workers), well above the national share and reflecting the suburb's role near major hospital and aged-care services northeast of Adelaide. Education follows at 9.8% (179), then Retail and Public Administration each at 7.9% (144) and Professional/Tech at 7.1% (131). By occupation, Professionals (479) and Community/Personal workers (415) lead, ahead of Clerical (361) and Labourers (304). Unemployment is elevated at 7.2%, above typical metro levels, and the participation rate of 56.8% is held down by 1,720 residents not in the labour force. SEIFA deciles cluster in the lower-middle band: IRSD 4, IRSAD 4, IEO 4 and IER 3, so the suburb ranks below the national midpoint on every advantage measure.
Unemployment
3.2%
Labour Force
9,160
Unemployed
290
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
61.3%
Part-time
31.5%
Participation
56.8%
Employed
2,506
Occupations
Top Industries
University
38.2%
Postgraduate
11.8%
Born Overseas
39.7%
Dwellings
2,203
Transport to Work
Car dependence is high, with 78.7% of commuters driving and only 13.3% using public transport and 3.2% walking or cycling, typical for a low-density suburb at 1,684 residents per sq km. The clearest drawback is safety: the crime rate of 202.0 per 1,000 residents, on 1,130 recorded incidents, runs well above metropolitan norms and is the suburb's defining downside. SEIFA places Modbury in decile 4 on both IRSAD and IRSD, below the national midpoint, and 7.4% of residents (394 people) need daily assistance. Volunteering runs at 12.5%. No schools are recorded inside the 3.32 sq km boundary in this dataset, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring suburbs, a practical trade-off offset by the detached, family-sized housing stock.
Drive
78.7%
Public Transport
13.3%
Walk / Cycle
3.2%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.72%/yr
(+133 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation is growing slowly but steadily, with the wider area trending up 0.72% a year, about 133 people, and a 10-year change of 11.2% since 2011. Medium forecasts lift the area population from 18,375 in 2026 to 19,042 by 2031, an extension of trend rather than a surge. The single driver is overseas migration at roughly 239 residents a year, against near-zero net internal movement of 2, which explains the young median age and high overseas-born share. The gentrification stage reads early signs with a score of 29, supported by an accelerating growth curve (3% rising toward 10%) and rent growth of 26.0%. Affordability improved from 53.0% in 2011 to 46.5% in 2021, though the 17.3% price jump may reverse that gain.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+239
Net Internal / yr
+2
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Population +13% since 2011, Strong overseas inflow +239/yr, Accelerating: 3% → 10%
Safety & Crime
Total Offences
1,130
Year ending June 2024
Rate per 1,000 People
202.0
Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria / SA Police
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Modbury compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Modbury a good suburb to live in?
Modbury suits families wanting detached housing, with 75.7% separate houses and a younger median age of 37, which is 3.0 years below national. University qualifications reach 38.2%, 8.1 points above national. The main drawback is a crime rate of 202.0 per 1,000 residents, well above metropolitan norms.
What is the median house price in Modbury?
The median house price is $900,000, up 17.3% from $767,500 a year earlier. Weekly rent averages $315 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $1,430, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 24.6%, below the 30% stress threshold despite incomes in the 34.1st percentile nationally.
What schools are in Modbury?
No schools are recorded inside the 3.32 sq km Modbury boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. The resident base is well educated, with university qualifications at 38.2%, which is 8.1 points above the national figure.
Is Modbury safe?
Safety is the suburb's main concern. The crime rate is 202.0 per 1,000 residents, based on 1,130 recorded incidents, well above typical metropolitan levels. The suburb also scores decile 4 on the IRSD index of relative disadvantage, below the national midpoint.
Is Modbury good for property investment?
Rent of $315 a week against a $900,000 median gives a gross yield near 1.8%, low, so returns depend on capital growth, with prices up 17.3% in a year. The 5.5% vacancy rate is moderate, and overseas migration adds about 239 residents a year to support demand.
How is Modbury's population changing?
The wider area is growing about 0.72% a year, roughly 133 people, with an 11.2% rise over 10 years. Overseas migration drives this, adding about 239 residents annually against net internal movement of just 2, which keeps the median age at 37, below national.
What languages are spoken in Modbury?
About 39.7% of residents were born overseas, 18.1 points above national. English dominates, but Punjabi (152 speakers), Mandarin (73), Hindi (68) and Gujarati (56) are common, reflecting a sizable South Asian community alongside 435 residents of the Hindu faith.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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