NSW 2315 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Nelson Bay

An older coastal population and a 37.3% vacancy rate shape Nelson Bay more than its 6,141 residents alone suggest. The median age is 51, or 11 years above the national comparison, while 43.2% of homes are owned outright. That combination supports a settled retiree presence but also points to holiday or intermittently occupied stock. Compared with the holiday-oriented housing around Shoal Bay and Salamander Bay, Nelson Bay functions more as a service and employment centre, with healthcare at 18.0% of jobs and hospitality at 10.6%. Its 2.2-person average household size is lower than the national figure by 0.3, reinforcing the smaller-household pattern.

Nelson Bay urban fabric map

Population

6,141

Median Age

51.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$1,305/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

116

15.66 km²· 392.2 people/km²· Family income $1,667/wk

Homebuyers are choosing between 59.5% separate houses, 20.9% semi-detached homes and 19.4% apartments, with 44.0% of dwellings containing 3 bedrooms. The monthly mortgage figure is $1,842, and mortgage-to-income pressure is 32.6%, higher than the 29.1% rent-to-income measure. That gap matters because a buyer carrying debt has less room for repairs, insurance and coastal maintenance. Compared with a compact apartment market, Nelson Bay provides more detached and semi-detached options, but the 37.3% vacancy rate means buyers should distinguish permanent neighbourhoods from homes used part-time. Outright ownership is 43.2%, above the 24.5% mortgaged share, so turnover may be slower than in heavily leveraged suburbs.

For Buyers

Homebuyers are choosing between 59.5% separate houses, 20.9% semi-detached homes and 19.4% apartments, with 44.0% of dwellings containing 3 bedrooms. The monthly mortgage figure is $1,842, and mortgage-to-income pressure is 32.6%, higher than the 29.1% rent-to-income measure. That gap matters because a buyer carrying debt has less room for repairs, insurance and coastal maintenance. Compared with a compact apartment market, Nelson Bay provides more detached and semi-detached options, but the 37.3% vacancy rate means buyers should distinguish permanent neighbourhoods from homes used part-time. Outright ownership is 43.2%, above the 24.5% mortgaged share, so turnover may be slower than in heavily leveraged suburbs.

For Investors

Investors face a mixed rental case. Weekly rent is $380 and 31.1% of occupied housing is rented, yet the 37.3% vacancy rate is a higher-risk signal than a tightly occupied market because a large share of stock may be seasonal or held for non-permanent use. The pipeline recorded 115 development applications in 12 months, which can increase competition for tenants even when works are alterations rather than new dwellings. Overseas migration is the primary forecast driver, giving demand some support, while annual growth of 0.68% is modest compared with a high-growth corridor. The rent-to-income measure is 29.1%, below the 32.6% mortgage measure, so rental affordability may attract some households, but investors should budget for vacancy and maintenance.

Development Activity

Total DAs

626

Last 12 Months

116

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

-0.9%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Renovation / Extension
76
Swimming Pool / Spa
32
Demolition
30
Subdivision
28
New Dwelling
17
Multi-Dwelling / Townhouse
13
Garage / Carport / Shed
10
Granny Flat / Secondary Dwelling
7

Demographics

Nelson Bay has a distinctly older profile: its median age of 51 is 11 years above the national comparison, while university attainment at 25.7% is 4.4 percentage points below it. Overseas-born residents account for 19.7%, 1.9 points below the national share, and the average household has 2.2 people, 0.3 below the national figure. English ancestry is recorded for 2,543 people, followed by Irish at 803 and Scottish at 729; Christianity counts 3,196 and no religion 2,313. Couples without children make up 53.6% of families, helping explain the smaller households. Compared with nearby Shoal Bay and Salamander Bay, Nelson Bay's profile is more suited to established services than a strongly family-growth-led setting.

Age Distribution

0-14
13.3%
15-24
9.6%
25-44
18.3%
45-64
29.3%
65+
29.3%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
3.5%
2 bed
20.5%
3 bed
44.0%
4+ bed
32.1%

Dwelling Structure

59.5%

Houses

20.9%

Townhouse

19.4%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 43.2% Mortgage 24.5% Rent 31.1% Other 1.2%

Housing tenure is split between 43.2% owned outright, 24.5% with a mortgage and 31.1% rented, leaving only 1.2% in other arrangements. Outright ownership is higher than the mortgaged share, which points to a mature market with many owners beyond their purchase phase. The dwelling mix is 59.5% separate houses, 20.9% semi-detached homes and 19.4% apartments. Three-bedroom homes account for 44.0%, while 4-plus-bedroom dwellings reach 32.1%, so family-sized stock is substantial despite the 2.2-person average household. Housing pressure is more visible for mortgagors: the 32.6% mortgage-to-income measure is above the 29.1% rent measure. Compared with a rental-dominated suburb, Nelson Bay's ownership base may support stability, but the 37.3% vacancy rate complicates the reading of available supply.

Mortgage / mo

$1,842

Rent / wkiMedian weekly rent for new bonds (April to June 2026), NSW Rental Bond Board (DCJ). Census 2021 median: $380.

$650

Bond data Jun 2026 · houses $720 · units $550

HH Size

2.2

Personal Income / wk

$689

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

37.3%

Unoccupied

1,532

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

29.1%

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

32.6% stressed

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Nepali
31
Croatian
20
Greek
19
Italian
18
Mandarin
15
Canton
14

Ancestry

English
2,543
Irish
803
Scottish
729
Other
500
Ancestry NS
345
German
244

Household Composition

28.4%

Couples with children

53.6%

Couples, no children

16.6%

Single parent

1,721

Total families

Economy & Employment

Nelson Bay's employment base is led by healthcare, at 18.0% and 293 workers, followed by hospitality at 10.6% and 173, education at 10.1% and 165, construction at 9.6% and 156, and public administration at 8.9% and 145. This mix links local jobs to care, visitors, building and government services rather than one dominant private industry. Professionals number 422 and trades 416, while community and personal service workers total 375. Household income is $1,305 a week at the 31.1 percentile, below the national midpoint, so local spending power is more limited than in higher-income markets. Unemployment is 5.2% and participation is 49.8%, with the older age profile helping explain why labour-force participation is restrained.

Unemployment

5.2%

Labour Force

2,647

Unemployed

138

Source: ABS Census 2021

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Full-time

49.7%

Part-time

39.9%

Participation

49.8%

Employed

2,509

Full-time and part-time are shares of the employed. Source: ABS Census 2021

Occupations

Professionals 422
Trades 416
Community/Personal 375
Managers 337
Clerical/Admin 294
Labourers 262
Sales 236
Machinery/Drivers 119

Top Industries

Healthcare 18.0%
Hospitality 10.6%
Education 10.1%
Construction 9.6%
Public Admin 8.9%

University

25.7%

Postgraduate

6.0%

Born Overseas

19.7%

Dwellings

2,563

Transport to Work

Nelson Bay is strongly car-oriented: 65.9% travel as a car driver, compared with only 1.0% using public transport, while 6.2% walk or cycle and 21.7% work from home. That pattern suits households with vehicles and flexible work, but it can make access harder for older residents or anyone relying on frequent transit. The 17.7% volunteering rate adds a useful local connection, while 6.2% need assistance indicates a meaningful support requirement. With 6,141 residents across 15.66 square kilometres, density is 392.2 people per square kilometre, so daily convenience depends more on where a home sits than on density alone. Families should check school enrolment zones against the exact address, and renters should compare transport access with weekly rent of $380. Compared with denser urban suburbs, car dependence is higher and public transport use is lower.

Drive

65.9%

Public Transport

1.0%

Walk / Cycle

6.2%

Work from Home

21.7%

Population Forecast

+0.68%/yr

(+151 people/yr)

Established

Growth is steady rather than rapid, with an annual trend of 0.68% and population change across the wider area of 11.9% over 10 years. Overseas migration is the primary driver, but the trajectory is labelled Aging: the senior share has risen 6.2 percentage points and the working share has fallen 3.0 points. That combination supports demand for healthcare and accessible housing because older households tend to value nearby services. The shift measure also records rent growth of 39.3% and worsening affordability, from 57.7 in 2011 to 60.2 in 2021. Compared with a high-growth, youth-led corridor, Nelson Bay is moving more slowly and with a different demand base. Gentrification is rated Not gentrifying at score 0, despite an Early signs score of 35 in the wider shift indicators.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+153

Net Internal / yr

+34

0

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Nelson Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 9%
Household Income
Bottom 31%
Rent Level
Top 21%
Apartments
Top 5%
Renters
Top 19%
Uni Educated
Top 45%
Public Transport
Bottom 20%
Born Overseas
Top 31%
Density
Top 20%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Nelson Bay a good suburb to live in?

Nelson Bay suits people seeking a coastal lifestyle, established services and a quieter age profile. The median age is 51, volunteering is 17.7% and 65.9% of commuters drive, so it is more practical for households with cars than for people seeking frequent public transport. The 37.3% vacancy rate also means the feel can vary between permanent and part-time occupied areas.

What is the median house price in Nelson Bay?

Use recent settled sales to establish the current median rather than relying on a static estimate. Nelson Bay's housing mix includes 59.5% separate houses, 20.9% semi-detached homes and 19.4% apartments. The monthly mortgage figure is $1,842, while 43.2% of homes are owned outright, providing useful context when comparing different property types.

What schools are in Nelson Bay?

School access is address-specific, so families should check enrolment zones and nearby options before buying or renting. Public transport accounts for only 1.0% of journeys and car driving accounts for 65.9%, making the distance to school, available bus routes and daily drop-off patterns important practical considerations for each household.

Is Nelson Bay safe?

Check current NSW Police crime mapping for the exact streets and time period, then inspect lighting, pedestrian activity and property access in person. Nelson Bay has 6,141 residents, but population size alone cannot establish personal safety. A chosen home's position near busy visitor areas, quiet residential streets or transport routes can materially affect day-to-day comfort.

Is Nelson Bay good for property investment?

Nelson Bay has a $380 weekly rent and 31.1% renting share, but the 37.3% vacancy rate creates more risk than in a tightly occupied market. Overseas migration is the primary growth driver and annual growth is 0.68%. A total of 115 development applications in 12 months also warrants checking future competition, holding costs and the difference between permanent and seasonal demand.

How is Nelson Bay's population changing?

The wider area's population change is 11.9% over 10 years, with an annual trend of 0.68% and overseas migration as the primary driver. The trajectory is Aging: the senior share has increased by 6.2 percentage points while the working share has fallen 3.0 points. These trends support healthcare and accessible housing demand more than rapid youth-led expansion.

What development is happening in Nelson Bay?

Nelson Bay recorded 115 development applications over 12 months, including dwelling alterations, balconies, decks and a food and drink premise. The application volume is higher than in a no-activity market, but applications do not equal 115 new homes. Buyers should check approval status, construction timing and whether nearby works affect parking, traffic or outlook.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state education open registers (school locations), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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