Neutral Bay
An apartment share of 80.6% and a renter majority at 53.4% define Neutral Bay as one of Sydney's most concentrated rental-apartment markets, yet household income at the 91.5 percentile nationally and IRSAD decile 10 confirm this is a high-income renter enclave rather than an affordability-driven one. The 13.2% vacancy rate is strikingly high, well above the Sydney average, suggesting either turnover churn or oversupply in the apartment segment. With 64.0% university-qualified residents (33.9 points above the national baseline), a median age of 38 and 39.3% born overseas, the demographic profile is that of a globally mobile professional population. The SEIFA split between IEO decile 10 (top education) and IER decile 3 (low economic resources) is the defining anomaly: extremely high credentials but limited accumulated wealth, consistent with a young, high-earning but asset-light renter cohort.
Population
10,090
Median Age
38.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$2,443/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
77
Median House
$1.4M
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price of $1,357,500 applies to a very narrow market, since only 8.3% of dwellings are separate houses. Apartments dominate at 80.6%, making unit prices the more relevant benchmark for most buyers. Prices rose 10.0% from $1,272,500 in 2024 to $1,400,000 in 2025, though this short dataset limits trend analysis. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,895 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Two-bedroom stock accounts for 43.3% of dwellings, the natural first-home target, while one-bedroom and studio units at 25.6% serve the singles market. Only 24.7% own outright and 21.9% hold mortgages, so the buyer pool is small compared to the 53.4% renter base. Average household size of 2.0 is 0.5 below the national figure, reflecting the compact apartment fabric.
For Buyers
The median house price of $1,357,500 applies to a very narrow market, since only 8.3% of dwellings are separate houses. Apartments dominate at 80.6%, making unit prices the more relevant benchmark for most buyers. Prices rose 10.0% from $1,272,500 in 2024 to $1,400,000 in 2025, though this short dataset limits trend analysis. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,895 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.4%, below the 30% stress threshold. Two-bedroom stock accounts for 43.3% of dwellings, the natural first-home target, while one-bedroom and studio units at 25.6% serve the singles market. Only 24.7% own outright and 21.9% hold mortgages, so the buyer pool is small compared to the 53.4% renter base. Average household size of 2.0 is 0.5 below the national figure, reflecting the compact apartment fabric.
For Investors
The 53.4% renter share gives Neutral Bay one of Sydney's deepest tenant pools on the lower north shore. Median weekly rent of $550 is well above the Sydney median. The 13.2% vacancy rate is the key risk factor, sitting far above the Sydney average and suggesting that tenant churn or new apartment supply is outpacing demand in parts of the market. The 72 development applications lodged in 12 months include multi-dwelling housing and terrace projects, adding further supply. Two-bedroom apartments at 43.3% of stock align well with the professional-couple renter demographic. Net overseas migration of 489 per year provides a structural demand floor, though it is partially offset by a net internal outflow of 299 per year. The IER decile 3 reading means most renters here have high incomes but limited accumulated wealth, making them reliable tenants who pay on time but are unlikely to transition to ownership locally.
Development Activity
Total DAs
411
Last 12 Months
77
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+5.5%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Neutral Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Neutral Bay Public School
K-6 · 641 students
Demographics
English (3,539), Irish (1,320), Scottish (1,111) and Chinese (850) ancestries form the main cultural groups. The 64.0% university qualification rate sits 33.9 percentage points above the national baseline, and 76.0% of employed residents work full-time, one of the highest full-time rates in Sydney. Mandarin (143), Cantonese (78), Japanese (56) and French (47) lead non-English languages, reflecting an East Asian and European professional migrant profile. The median age of 38 runs 2 years below the national figure, and couples without children at 39.6% dominate the household mix, the highest childless-couple share in this cohort. With 39.3% born overseas (17.7 points above the national baseline), the population is substantially more globally mobile than average. Religious affiliation shows Christianity (4,043), Buddhism (255) and Hinduism (228).
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
8.3%
Houses
10.9%
Townhouse
80.6%
Apartment
Tenure
The tenure split is heavily skewed toward renting: 53.4% rent, 24.7% own outright and 21.9% hold mortgages. This renter-majority structure is unusual for a suburb at the 91.5 income percentile and reflects the apartment-dominant housing form. Apartments make up 80.6% of dwellings, semi-detached 10.9% and separate houses just 8.3%. Two-bedroom units at 43.3% and one-bedroom at 25.6% together account for 68.9% of stock. Prices moved from $1,272,500 in 2024 to $1,400,000 in 2025, a 10.0% annual gain, though data history is too short to assess long-term trends. Rent-to-income at 22.5% and mortgage-to-income at 27.4% both sit below stress thresholds, indicating that the local income base can service housing costs despite elevated price levels.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,895
Rent / wk
$550
HH Size
2.0
Personal Income / wk
$1,552
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
13.2%
Unoccupied
719
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
22.5%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.4%
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
39.6%
Couples, no children
6,623
Total families
Economy & Employment
Professional and Technical Services leads employment at 23.6%, followed by Finance at 14.2%, Healthcare at 12.4%, Education at 8.0% and Public Administration at 5.2%. The professional-finance concentration is among the highest in Sydney and drives the high personal weekly income of $1,552. Professionals are the largest occupational group at 2,585, with Managers at 1,369 and Clerical/Admin at 701. The SEIFA anomaly is striking: IEO decile 10 and IER decile 3 creates a 7-point gap, the widest in this analysis cohort. This means residents rank at the national ceiling for education but in the bottom 30% for economic resources. The explanation is structural: a young, high-earning renter cohort has strong income flows but has not yet accumulated assets like property or superannuation. Unemployment at 4.0% is below the national average, and the 66.7% participation rate matches the broader figure.
Unemployment
4.6%
Labour Force
12,002
Unemployed
553
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
76.0%
Part-time
20.0%
Participation
66.7%
Employed
5,600
Occupations
Top Industries
University
64.0%
Postgraduate
19.5%
Born Overseas
39.3%
Dwellings
4,707
Transport to Work
The transport mix is balanced for Sydney: 63.2% drive, 15.3% use public transport, and 17.8% walk or cycle, one of the highest active transport rates in Sydney. Bus services along Military Road provide direct CBD access. Neutral Bay Public School (ICSEA 1,169, 641 students, government) is the sole school in the suburb, performing 169 points above the national ICSEA benchmark of 1,000 and sitting in the top 10% nationally. No crime data is available, but SEIFA IRSD decile 9 (very low relative disadvantage) is a strong proxy, as suburbs at this level typically record crime rates well below metropolitan medians. The 2.3% needing assistance rate is among the lowest in this cohort, consistent with the young, professionally active population. The IEO decile 10 reading confirms educational advantage at the national ceiling.
Drive
63.2%
Public Transport
15.3%
Walk / Cycle
17.8%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.07%/yr
(+13 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation growth is nearly flat at 0.07% per year, adding just 13 persons annually. The medium forecast projects 18,284 by 2031, barely changed from 18,220 in 2026. Population grew only 2.8% over the past decade, well below the Sydney metropolitan average. COVID caused a 6.2% population dip, but the suburb has fully recovered. Net overseas migration of 489 per year is strong, but this is almost entirely offset by a net internal outflow of 299 per year, explaining the stagnant population total. The aging trajectory shows the senior share rising 4.7 percentage points while the working-age share fell 6.4 points, despite the suburb's young median age of 38. Real income growth of only 3.3% over the decade is notably low for a suburb at this income level. The gentrification score is just 4, classified as not gentrifying, because the suburb is already at its socioeconomic ceiling.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+489
Net Internal / yr
-299
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Net internal outflow -299/yr, Strong overseas inflow +489/yr, COVID recovered (-6% dip → full recovery)
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Neutral Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Neutral Bay a good suburb to live in?
Neutral Bay scores IRSAD decile 10, the highest national ranking. With 64.0% university-qualified residents, 17.8% walking or cycling to work, and one primary school at ICSEA 1,169, it suits young professionals and couples without children. The key trade-off is the 80.6% apartment stock and 13.2% vacancy rate, meaning options for detached housing are extremely limited.
What is the median house price in Neutral Bay?
The median house price is $1,357,500, though this applies to only 8.3% of dwellings since apartments make up 80.6% of stock. Prices rose 10.0% from $1,272,500 in 2024 to $1,400,000 in 2025. Median weekly rent is $550 and monthly mortgage repayments sit at $2,895, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 27.4%.
What schools are in Neutral Bay?
Neutral Bay has 1 school: Neutral Bay Public School, a government primary school with 641 students and an ICSEA of 1,169. This places it 169 points above the national benchmark of 1,000, in the top 10% nationally for educational advantage. The IEO decile 10 rating confirms that the suburb's adult education levels are at the national ceiling.
Is Neutral Bay safe?
No crime data is available for Neutral Bay. However, SEIFA IRSD decile 9 (very low relative disadvantage) is a strong proxy. Suburbs at this IRSD level across Sydney typically record crime rates well below the metropolitan median. The 4.0% unemployment rate and 91.5 percentile household income further correlate with lower crime outcomes.
Is Neutral Bay good for property investment?
The 53.4% renter share provides a deep tenant pool, and $550 weekly rent sits above the Sydney median. However, the 13.2% vacancy rate is very elevated, posing an income risk. With 72 development applications in 12 months, new supply continues entering the market. Net overseas migration of 489 per year provides structural tenant demand, but returns rely on capital appreciation rather than yield in this high-entry-cost market.
How is Neutral Bay's population changing?
Population growth is nearly flat at 0.07% per year, adding just 13 persons annually. The medium forecast projects 18,284 by 2031. Net overseas migration of 489 per year is strong but offset by a net internal outflow of 299. The suburb grew only 2.8% over the past decade, well below the Sydney average. COVID caused a 6.2% dip that has since fully recovered.
What development is happening in Neutral Bay?
Neutral Bay lodged 72 development applications in the past 12 months, including multi-dwelling terrace housing and indoor recreation facilities. The activity is significant for a 1.27 sq km suburb at 7,953 persons per sq km density. Combined with the 80.6% apartment share and 13.2% vacancy rate, buyers and investors should watch whether new supply compresses rents or tightens the market as population growth remains near zero.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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