Oak Flats
An $840,000 median house price sits well below Sydney levels here, and that affordability is the defining feature of this Illawarra suburb near Lake Illawarra. Household income lands in the 46.5th percentile nationally, just below the midpoint, yet detached houses make up 82.2% of dwellings against only 2.0% apartments, an unusually house-heavy mix. SEIFA places the area in decile 4 for both IRSAD and IRSD and decile 3 for education and occupation, all below the national average. The population skews older at a median age of 42, two years above national, and the trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 7.2 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 3.3 points.
Population
6,840
Median Age
42.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,488/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
73
Median House
$840K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
At $840,000 the median house price is far more reachable than metropolitan Sydney, and prices rose 4.8% from $825,000 in 2024 to $865,000 in 2025. The stock favours families: 82.2% are separate houses, three-bedroom homes account for 52.8% of dwellings and four-plus bedroom homes a further 32.5%, so two-bedroom or apartment options are scarce at just 12.9% and 2.0%. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,950, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 30.3%, fractionally above the 30% stress threshold because local household income sits in only the 46.5th percentile. Outright owners at 42.5% outnumber mortgage holders at 32.8%, a sign that much of the housing is held by long-settled, debt-free owners rather than recent buyers.
For Buyers
At $840,000 the median house price is far more reachable than metropolitan Sydney, and prices rose 4.8% from $825,000 in 2024 to $865,000 in 2025. The stock favours families: 82.2% are separate houses, three-bedroom homes account for 52.8% of dwellings and four-plus bedroom homes a further 32.5%, so two-bedroom or apartment options are scarce at just 12.9% and 2.0%. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,950, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 30.3%, fractionally above the 30% stress threshold because local household income sits in only the 46.5th percentile. Outright owners at 42.5% outnumber mortgage holders at 32.8%, a sign that much of the housing is held by long-settled, debt-free owners rather than recent buyers.
For Investors
A 24.7% renter share and weekly rent of $440 give landlords a moderate tenant pool, and the numbers read better than premium Sydney markets. Against the $840,000 median, that rent implies a gross yield near 2.7%, higher than inner-city suburbs where yields fall closer to 1.3%. The vacancy rate of 4.2% is slightly above a tight market but signals no acute oversupply, helped by apartments being only 2.0% of stock. Demand support is balanced: net overseas migration adds 56 residents a year and internal migration a further 29, giving steadier natural growth than flat inner suburbs. Development activity is modest at 70 applications in 12 months, including secondary dwellings and multi-dwelling sites, so new supply stays measured. With annual population growth of 0.56%, the case rests on yield and affordability more than rapid capital gains.
Development Activity
Total DAs
419
Last 12 Months
73
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+2.8%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Oak Flats iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Corpus Christi Catholic High School
7-12 · 1126 students
Balarang Public School
K-6 · 268 students
Oak Flats Public School
P-6 · 416 students
Oak Flats High School
7-12 · 648 students
Demographics
The median age of 42 is 2.0 years above the national figure, and the trajectory is clearly aging: the senior share rose 7.2 points while the working-age share fell 3.3 points and the young share dropped 2.6 points over the decade. Overseas-born residents reach 17.9%, which is 3.7 points below national, marking a more Australian-born profile than most metro suburbs. Ancestry leans Anglo, led by English (2,708), Irish (607) and Scottish (592), and the top non-English languages are Macedonian (32 speakers), Italian (19) and German (14). University qualifications at 18.6% run 11.5 points below national, consistent with the decile 3 education and occupation score. Average household size is 2.5, level with national, and couples with children (1,875 families) outnumber couples without children (1,565).
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
82.2%
Houses
15.3%
Townhouse
2.0%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure tilts toward ownership: 42.5% own outright, 32.8% carry a mortgage and 24.7% rent, so debt-free owners outnumber both other groups. The stock is overwhelmingly detached at 82.2%, with semi-detached at 15.3% and apartments a negligible 2.0%, which keeps the market house-led rather than driven by unit churn. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 52.8% and four-plus bedroom at 32.5%, leaving two-bedroom dwellings at only 12.9%. The median house price rose from $825,000 to $865,000 across 2024 and 2025, a 4.8% one-year move. Mortgage-to-income at 30.3% edges above the stress threshold while rent-to-income at 29.6% stays just under it, a divergence that reflects how recent buyers carry more strain than established tenants on incomes in the 46.5th percentile.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,950
Rent / wk
$440
HH Size
2.5
Personal Income / wk
$698
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
4.2%
Unoccupied
112
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
29.6%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
30.3% stressed
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
28.3%
Couples, no children
5,538
Total families
Economy & Employment
The local workforce is anchored in essential services rather than knowledge sectors: Healthcare leads at 21.2% (429 workers), Construction follows at 13.4% (271) and Education at 10.3% (209), with Public Administration at 9.0% and Retail at 7.3%. By occupation, Community and Personal Service workers (448) and Professionals (441) are most common, with Clerical and Admin (402) close behind, a spread that matches the decile 3 IEO score for education and occupation. Unemployment sits at 5.4% and the full-time employment rate is 61.6%. Participation reads 49.5%, held down because the aging profile leaves 2,201 residents not in the labour force. Real incomes grew 16.5% over the decade. The IER economic resources score reaches decile 5, above the decile 3 IEO, because high outright ownership lifts household asset measures even where qualifications are lower.
Unemployment
6.9%
Labour Force
5,655
Unemployed
389
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
61.6%
Part-time
33.0%
Participation
49.5%
Employed
2,645
Occupations
Top Industries
University
18.6%
Postgraduate
4.2%
Born Overseas
17.9%
Dwellings
2,541
Transport to Work
Car dependence is high: 90.4% of residents drive to work while only 2.2% take public transport and 2.6% walk or cycle, well above the national reliance on cars and a reflection of the lakeside, low-density layout at 1,816 residents per km2. The suburb scores decile 4 on IRSAD and decile 4 on IRSD for relative disadvantage, both below the national average, indicating a mix of moderate advantage and some pockets of hardship. Volunteering runs at 10.5% and 7.5% of residents (486 people) need daily assistance, consistent with the older median age of 42. Rent-to-income at 29.6% keeps tenants just under stress, more comfortable than recent buyers. No schools are recorded inside the 3.77 km2 boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs.
Drive
90.4%
Public Transport
2.2%
Walk / Cycle
2.6%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.56%/yr
(+62 people/yr)
EstablishedOak Flats is growing slowly: annual population growth registers 0.56%, about 62 people a year, and the 10-year change is 11.6%, classifying it as an established suburb rather than a boom market. Medium forecasts lift the population from 10,944 in 2026 toward 11,255 by 2031, a steady continuation of trend. Migration is balanced, with net overseas inflow of 56 a year and net internal inflow of 29, so neither driver dominates. Affordability has worsened over time, from 53.8% in 2011 to 61.4% in 2021, as rents climbed 63.5% across the period, faster than incomes. The aging shift, senior share up 7.2 points and young share down 2.6 points, means future demand leans toward smaller, lower-maintenance housing than the four-bedroom stock that now dominates.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+56
Net Internal / yr
+29
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
Population +10% since 2011
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Oak Flats compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Oak Flats a good suburb to live in?
Oak Flats offers Illawarra affordability, with an $840,000 median house price well below Sydney and 82.2% detached houses suited to families. SEIFA scores sit in decile 4 for IRSAD, below the national average, and university qualifications at 18.6% run 11.5 points under national, so it favours value and space over prestige.
What is the median house price in Oak Flats?
The median house price is $840,000, far below Sydney levels. Prices rose 4.8% from $825,000 in 2024 to $865,000 in 2025. Weekly rent averages $440 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $1,950, giving a mortgage-to-income ratio of 30.3%.
What schools are in Oak Flats?
No schools are recorded inside the 3.77 km2 Oak Flats boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. Education is the third-largest local industry at 10.3% of workers, employing 209 residents, pointing to strong access in the wider area.
Is Oak Flats safe?
Detailed crime statistics are not available for Oak Flats in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 4 on the IRSD index of relative disadvantage, below the national average, and 7.5% of its residents (486 people) need daily assistance, pointing to a moderate-disadvantage profile.
Is Oak Flats good for property investment?
Rent of $440 a week against an $840,000 median gives a gross yield near 2.7%, higher than inner-Sydney suburbs nearer 1.3%. The 4.2% vacancy rate signals no major oversupply, and balanced migration of 85 net arrivals a year supports steady, yield-led rather than capital-led returns.
How is Oak Flats's population changing?
Population growth is 0.56% annually, about 62 people a year, with an 11.6% rise over 10 years. Medium forecasts lift the count toward 11,255 by 2031. The profile is aging, with the senior share up 7.2 points and the working-age share down 3.3 points over the decade.
How much development is happening in Oak Flats?
There were 70 development applications lodged in the past 12 months, modest for an established suburb. Recent samples include secondary dwellings and multi-dwelling housing sites, consistent with measured infill rather than large-scale new supply at 0.56% annual population growth.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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