Shoal Bay
With a median age of 59, Shoal Bay sits 19 years above the national figure, making it one of the most age-skewed coastal communities in NSW. That single demographic fact explains a great deal: participation in the labour force is just 35.0%, couples without children account for 43.4% of families, and the average household holds only 2.0 people compared to the national 2.5. Household income falls in the 12.9th percentile nationally, despite a median house price of $890,000, because much of the resident base is retired rather than income-earning. A 45.6% vacancy rate signals a high proportion of holiday and investment-held dwellings in this Port Stephens coastal pocket.
Population
1,815
Median Age
59.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,007/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
28
Median House
$890K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price reached $890,000 in 2025, down from a peak of $1,025,000 in 2024, a fall of 16.1%. That correction may attract buyers priced out of the peak cycle, though the mortgage-to-income ratio of 39.0% sits well above the 30% stress threshold, reflecting weak local incomes rather than high borrowing costs alone. Separate houses make up 52.9% of the stock, semi-detached dwellings 33.3% and apartments 13.9%. The bedroom profile clusters around 2-bedroom (35.7%) and 3-bedroom (34.6%) properties, with 4-plus bedrooms at 22.7%. Outright owners are the dominant tenure at 44.0%, higher than average, because the retired resident base has had decades to pay off debt.
For Buyers
The median house price reached $890,000 in 2025, down from a peak of $1,025,000 in 2024, a fall of 16.1%. That correction may attract buyers priced out of the peak cycle, though the mortgage-to-income ratio of 39.0% sits well above the 30% stress threshold, reflecting weak local incomes rather than high borrowing costs alone. Separate houses make up 52.9% of the stock, semi-detached dwellings 33.3% and apartments 13.9%. The bedroom profile clusters around 2-bedroom (35.7%) and 3-bedroom (34.6%) properties, with 4-plus bedrooms at 22.7%. Outright owners are the dominant tenure at 44.0%, higher than average, because the retired resident base has had decades to pay off debt.
For Investors
Shoal Bay's 37.3% renter share and weekly rent of $338 are reasonable for a coastal suburb, but the 45.6% vacancy rate is the key risk: it is far above national norms and points to a large share of short-stay and seasonal stock competing for long-term tenants. The median house price of $890,000 against $338 weekly rent implies a gross yield of roughly 2.0%, below what most investors target. On the positive side, 23 development applications were lodged in the past 12 months, including secondary dwellings and subdivision activity, showing ongoing owner confidence. The price correction from the 2024 peak of $1,025,000 to the 2025 median of $860,000 is a 16.1% fall, so buyers entering now are not paying peak-cycle premiums.
Development Activity
Total DAs
169
Last 12 Months
28
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-9.7%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Shoal Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Shoal Bay Public School
K-6 · 237 students
Demographics
The median age of 59 is 19 years above the national median, and the low participation rate of 35.0% confirms this is a retirement-weighted community. Average household size of 2.0 is 0.5 below the national figure, consistent with the couples-without-children dominant profile at 43.4% of families. Overseas-born residents make up 19.6% of the population, 2.0 percentage points below national, and ancestry is strongly Anglo-Celtic: English (736), Irish (240) and Scottish (193) are the top three groups. University qualifications reach 21.7%, which is 8.4 points below national, reflecting the retired cohort's older education outcomes rather than any current disadvantage. The volunteering rate of 16.9% is high, typical of active retiree communities.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
52.9%
Houses
33.3%
Townhouse
13.9%
Apartment
Tenure
Tenure tells the story of a settled, older population: 44.0% own outright, 18.7% hold a mortgage and 37.3% rent. Outright ownership is well above national norms because many residents bought decades ago. The stock leans toward separate houses (52.9%) and semi-detached dwellings (33.3%), with apartments at a modest 13.9%, an unusual mix for a coastal suburb. Bedroom counts cluster at 2 (35.7%) and 3 (34.6%) bedrooms, aligning with the couples-without-children household profile. The price fell from $1,025,000 in 2024 to $860,000 in 2025, a 16.1% decline. Rent stress exists at 33.6% rent-to-income, above the 30% threshold, because weekly rents of $338 are heavy against the 12.9th-percentile household incomes.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,700
Rent / wk
$338
HH Size
2.0
Personal Income / wk
$623
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
45.6%
Unoccupied
686
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
33.6% stressed
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
39.0% stressed
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
43.4%
Couples, no children
1,158
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the dominant local industry at 22.4% of workers (87 people), followed by Hospitality at 13.4% (52) and Education at 10.8% (42). This pattern reflects both the retirement economy, which generates demand for care services, and the tourism economy, which drives hospitality employment. The labour force participation rate of 35.0% is very low compared to state norms because the majority of residents aged over 59 are no longer in paid work. Among those who are employed, full-time workers (254) and part-time workers (271) are nearly equal, and the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%. Personal weekly income of $623 is low in absolute terms, sitting in the 12.9th percentile nationally, because retirees draw on super and investment income rather than wages.
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
48.4%
Part-time
45.0%
Participation
35.0%
Employed
525
Occupations
Top Industries
University
21.7%
Postgraduate
4.8%
Born Overseas
19.6%
Dwellings
815
Transport to Work
Car dependence is high: 84.2% drive to work, while only 2.5% use public transport and 9.3% walk or cycle. This reflects the suburb's coastal geography with limited bus services compared to metropolitan areas. Crime data is not available in this dataset, so no rate comparison can be made. The need-for-assistance rate of 8.8% (142 people) is elevated relative to most suburbs, consistent with the median age of 59 being 19 years above the national figure. Rent-to-income stress at 33.6% is above the 30% threshold, creating financial pressure for the 37.3% who rent. No schools are recorded within the suburb boundary, so families with children rely on schools in neighbouring Port Stephens communities, though the demographics suggest school-age families are a small share of the 1,815 residents.
Drive
84.2%
Public Transport
2.5%
Walk / Cycle
9.3%
Work from Home
N/A
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Shoal Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Shoal Bay a good suburb to live in?
Shoal Bay suits retirees and sea-change buyers well, given its median age of 59 and 44.0% outright ownership rate. The 45.6% vacancy rate signals a relaxed holiday atmosphere rather than a dense urban one. The main trade-offs are a 12.9th percentile household income, limited public transport (2.5%), and no schools recorded within the suburb boundary.
What is the median house price in Shoal Bay?
The median house price is $890,000 in 2025, down 16.1% from the $1,025,000 peak in 2024. Weekly rent averages $338 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $1,700. The mortgage-to-income ratio of 39.0% is above the 30% stress threshold, reflecting weak local incomes rather than unusual debt levels.
What schools are in Shoal Bay?
No schools are recorded inside the Shoal Bay suburb boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring Port Stephens communities. The suburb's median age of 59 means school-age households are a small fraction of the 1,815 residents, so local schooling is rarely the primary concern for buyers here.
Is Shoal Bay safe?
Detailed crime rate data is not available for Shoal Bay in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the need-for-assistance rate is 8.8% (142 of 1,815 residents), which is elevated but consistent with the median age of 59 being 19 years above national. The low-density coastal setting at 451.6 people per km2 and stable 76.5% resident retention rate suggest a settled community.
Is Shoal Bay good for property investment?
The investment case is mixed. The 37.3% renter share provides a tenant pool, but the 45.6% vacancy rate signals significant short-stay competition and seasonal demand rather than stable long-term tenancy. Weekly rent of $338 against a $890,000 median implies a gross yield around 2.0%, below most investor targets. The 16.1% price fall from 2024 to 2025 means buyers are entering below peak.
How is Shoal Bay's population changing?
The population of 1,815 is small and largely stable. The turnover rate is 23.5%, with 76.5% of residents staying put in the reference year, indicating low churn. The median age of 59 is 19 years above the national figure, and the low labour force participation rate of 35.0% reflects a growing retirement share rather than population decline.
How much development is happening in Shoal Bay?
There were 23 development applications lodged in the past 12 months, including a secondary dwelling, dwelling house alterations and a subdivision. This level of activity indicates ongoing incremental infill rather than large-scale new supply, consistent with a small suburb of 1,815 residents and 4.02 km2 land area.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
Explore Shoal Bay on the Map
View parcels, zoning overlays, DA applications, schools and more.
Open Interactive Map