Tanilba Bay
With a median age of 48 and 43.5% of dwellings owned outright, Tanilba Bay reads as a retirement and semi-retirement destination on Port Stephens rather than a typical family suburb. Household income sits in the 21.1st percentile nationally, well below average, yet the median house price reached $765,000 in 2024-2025. That price-to-income gap is partly explained by the 43.5% outright ownership rate: long-held, mortgage-free properties raise prices without lifting current incomes. SEIFA places the suburb in decile 1 on education and occupation (IEO) and decile 2 on both IRSD and IRSAD, signalling concentrated disadvantage relative to most NSW suburbs.
Population
3,237
Median Age
48.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,131/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
29
Median House
$765K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price was $765,000 in the most recent period, up 15.6% from $689,500 in 2024, a sharp one-year rise that has widened the affordability gap. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,517, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 31.0%, above the standard 30% stress threshold. Stock is overwhelmingly detached houses at 93.4%, with semi-detached at 6.6% and no significant apartment segment. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 48.9% and four-plus-bedroom at 37.8%, making it a larger-format market than many coastal NSW towns. The 43.5% outright ownership rate is significantly higher than the national average, reflecting the settled, older owner base rather than a market driven by new mortgage buyers.
For Buyers
The median house price was $765,000 in the most recent period, up 15.6% from $689,500 in 2024, a sharp one-year rise that has widened the affordability gap. Monthly mortgage repayments average $1,517, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 31.0%, above the standard 30% stress threshold. Stock is overwhelmingly detached houses at 93.4%, with semi-detached at 6.6% and no significant apartment segment. Three-bedroom homes dominate at 48.9% and four-plus-bedroom at 37.8%, making it a larger-format market than many coastal NSW towns. The 43.5% outright ownership rate is significantly higher than the national average, reflecting the settled, older owner base rather than a market driven by new mortgage buyers.
For Investors
Renters make up 27.2% of the market, lower than many regional centres, with weekly rent at $380. Against the $765,000 median, that implies a gross yield near 2.6%, modest but not unusual for a coastal lifestyle area. The vacancy rate of 7.0% is elevated and warrants attention, suggesting rental demand does not strongly absorb available stock. Development activity reached 26 applications in 12 months, including dual occupancy and subdivision proposals, indicating incremental supply additions rather than large-scale projects. Net internal migration averages 39 residents per year and overseas migration adds 25, providing steady if modest demand support. Population grew 9.0% over the decade, above average for a suburb of this size and age profile.
Development Activity
Total DAs
168
Last 12 Months
29
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+81.2%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Tanilba Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
Tanilba Bay Public School
K-6 · 354 students
Demographics
The median age of 48 is 8.0 years above the national figure, one of the most distinctive signals in the brief. The senior share grew 6.6 points over the decade while the working-age share fell 3.1 points, confirming an aging trajectory. Overseas-born residents reach just 11.5%, which is 10.1 points below national, consistent with the strong Anglo-Celtic ancestry profile: English (1,471 residents) leads, followed by Scottish (347) and Irish (316). University qualifications stand at 15.5%, which is 14.6 points below the national rate, reflecting the trades and community-service workforce. Couples without children account for 35.7% of families, the dominant household type, fitting the post-family life stage of the resident base.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
93.4%
Houses
6.6%
Townhouse
N/A
Apartment
Tenure
Outright owners at 43.5% comfortably outnumber mortgage holders at 29.3% and renters at 27.2%, a structure you find in established seaside towns where houses were bought decades ago at lower prices. Separate houses are 93.4% of all dwellings, leaving almost no apartment option for buyers seeking lower entry points. The price climbed from $689,500 in 2024 to $797,000 at the 2025 peak, a 15.6% move in one year, before settling at the $765,000 median. Four-plus-bedroom homes represent 37.8% of stock, higher than most suburban markets, pointing to large family homes now occupied by older couples. Mortgage-to-income at 31.0% and rent-to-income at 33.6% both flag stress levels that are above typical thresholds, despite the relatively modest rent.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$1,517
Rent / wk
$380
HH Size
2.4
Personal Income / wk
$582
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
7.0%
Unoccupied
96
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
33.6% stressed
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
31.0% stressed
Community Profile
Ancestry
Household Composition
35.7%
Couples, no children
2,530
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare is the dominant industry at 22.7% of employed residents (160 workers), well above what you would expect nationally, because the aging resident base generates local care and support jobs. Public Administration follows at 11.2% (79 workers) and Construction at 9.2% (65 workers). By occupation, Community and Personal Service leads at 215 workers, with Labourers second at 151, indicating a service and trades economy rather than a professional one. Unemployment sits at 7.3%, above the national average, and the participation rate of 41.6% is low because 1,302 residents are not in the labour force, many of them retired. SEIFA decile 1 on IEO (education and occupation) places the suburb in the bottom tenth nationally on combined education and employment outcomes.
Unemployment
5.2%
Labour Force
2,768
Unemployed
145
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
57.1%
Part-time
35.6%
Participation
41.6%
Employed
1,041
Occupations
Top Industries
University
15.5%
Postgraduate
3.6%
Born Overseas
11.5%
Dwellings
1,267
Transport to Work
Car dependence is near-total: 89.3% of residents drive to work, while only 0.9% use public transport, one of the lowest public transport rates you will find in any NSW suburb. The 3.3% who walk or cycle is modest for a low-density coastal area. No schools are recorded within Tanilba Bay in this dataset, so families rely on nearby Port Stephens schools. SEIFA places the suburb in decile 2 on IRSAD, meaning it ranks among the lower 20% of Australian suburbs on the combined advantage and disadvantage index. One in ten residents (10.6%, or 327 people) require assistance with core activities, above the national rate and consistent with the older population. Volunteering reaches 12.3%, a positive community participation signal despite the low-income profile.
Drive
89.3%
Public Transport
0.9%
Walk / Cycle
3.3%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.62%/yr
(+44 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew 9.0% over the decade, above average for a coastal NSW suburb of this age and income profile, though the base of roughly 3,237 means the absolute additions were modest. The medium forecast adds 44 residents per year (0.62% annually), reaching approximately 7,349 by 2031 at the SA2 level. Internal migration of 39 net arrivals per year and overseas migration of 25 both contribute, a balanced driver profile. The aging trajectory is the key structural trend: rent grew 43.1% over the period versus real income growth of just 5.0%, worsening affordability from 58.6% to 64.9% over the decade. The gentrification score is 40, classified as Early signs, lower than most coastal NSW suburbs with similar price growth.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Balanced
Net Overseas / yr
+25
Net Internal / yr
+39
Gentrification Signal
Not gentrifying
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Tanilba Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Tanilba Bay a good suburb to live in?
Tanilba Bay suits retirees and owner-occupiers more than young professionals. The median age of 48 is 8 years above national, 43.5% own outright, and the area offers a coastal setting on Port Stephens. Trade-offs include a SEIFA decile 1 IEO score (bottom 10% nationally on education and occupation), a 7.3% unemployment rate, and near-total car dependence with only 0.9% using public transport.
What is the median house price in Tanilba Bay?
The median house price is $765,000 based on 2024-2025 data, up 15.6% from $689,500 in 2024. Weekly rent averages $380 and monthly mortgage repayments are around $1,517. At those figures the mortgage-to-income ratio sits at 31.0%, above the 30% stress threshold.
What schools are in Tanilba Bay?
No schools are recorded within the Tanilba Bay suburb boundary in this dataset. Families rely on schools in neighbouring Port Stephens communities. The suburb has a university qualification rate of 15.5%, which is 14.6 points below the national figure, reflecting its trades and community-services employment base.
Is Tanilba Bay safe?
Detailed crime statistics are not available for Tanilba Bay in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores SEIFA IRSD decile 2, placing it in the lower 20% nationally on relative disadvantage. About 10.6% of residents (327 people) require assistance with core activities, above average and consistent with the older, lower-income demographic profile.
Is Tanilba Bay good for property investment?
The investment case is mixed. Weekly rent of $380 against a $765,000 median implies a gross yield near 2.6%, modest for a regional market. The vacancy rate of 7.0% is elevated, signalling soft rental demand. Population grew 9.0% over the decade and net migration adds around 64 residents annually, providing steady but limited demand. Capital growth was strong at 15.6% year-on-year but affordability is already stretched, with rent-to-income at 33.6%.
How is Tanilba Bay's population changing?
Population grew 9.0% over the past decade and is forecast to add around 44 residents per year (0.62% annually), reaching approximately 7,349 at the SA2 level by 2031. The suburb is aging: the senior share rose 6.6 points while the working-age share fell 3.1 points over 10 years. Internal migration contributes 39 net arrivals per year and overseas migration adds 25.
How much development is happening in Tanilba Bay?
There were 26 development applications lodged in the past 12 months, including at least one dual occupancy and subdivision proposal. Activity is modest compared to growth corridors, consistent with an established coastal suburb at 0.62% annual growth. Most work appears to be alterations and additions to existing dwellings rather than new residential supply.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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