Ultimo
A population density of 13,261 per sq km packed into 0.56 sq km makes Ultimo one of Sydney's most compressed residential precincts, where 87.7% of dwellings are apartments and 73.4% of residents rent. The 71.2% overseas-born share (49.6pp above the national average) and 62.1% university attainment (32pp above national) create an unusual SEIFA profile: IEO decile 10 for education but IER decile 1 for economic resources. This divergence signals a suburb of highly educated but income-constrained residents, many likely students or early-career professionals.
Population
7,410
Median Age
30.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,805/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
41
Median House
$750K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median price of $750,000 (PSI derived, 2024-2025) has shown 0% growth over the past year, flat against broader Sydney gains. With 80.8% of stock being 0-2 bedroom apartments, this is a market for singles and couples, not families. Mortgage stress is already flagged at 32.0% of income, above the 30% threshold. Only 13.4% own outright and 13.2% hold mortgages, so owner-occupiers represent barely a quarter of the market. Buyers should factor in the 17.1% vacancy rate, which signals oversupply.
For Buyers
The median price of $750,000 (PSI derived, 2024-2025) has shown 0% growth over the past year, flat against broader Sydney gains. With 80.8% of stock being 0-2 bedroom apartments, this is a market for singles and couples, not families. Mortgage stress is already flagged at 32.0% of income, above the 30% threshold. Only 13.4% own outright and 13.2% hold mortgages, so owner-occupiers represent barely a quarter of the market. Buyers should factor in the 17.1% vacancy rate, which signals oversupply.
For Investors
The 17.1% vacancy rate is among the highest in inner Sydney and far above the 3% balanced benchmark. While 73.4% of residents rent (creating a deep tenant pool in theory), the high vacancy suggests units sit empty for extended periods, likely due to student calendar cycles and short-stay competition. Weekly rent of $500 on $750,000 purchase price implies a gross yield of 3.5%. With 40 development applications in 12 months, new supply continues to enter the pipeline, adding further downward pressure on rents.
Development Activity
Total DAs
217
Last 12 Months
41
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
-16.3%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Ultimo iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
International Grammar School
K-12 · 1224 students
Westbourne College Sydney
10-12 · 65 students
Ultimo Public School
K-6 · 483 students
Demographics
Chinese ancestry leads at 2,328 residents (31% of population), with English at 998 and Irish at 343. Mandarin is spoken by 588 residents, Cantonese by 205, and Hindi by 87. The 71.2% overseas-born share ranks 49.6 percentage points above the national average, the highest gap among comparable Sydney suburbs. Median age of 30 sits 10 years below the national figure. Household size averages 2.1, with 50.5% of families being couples without children. Population turnover is 53.9%, meaning over half the suburb's residents changed address in the Census period.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
0.2%
Houses
11.7%
Townhouse
87.7%
Apartment
Tenure
Apartments dominate at 87.7%, with semi-detached at 11.7% and detached houses at just 0.2%. Bedroom mix reflects this: 42.5% are 2-bedroom and 38.3% are studio or 1-bedroom units. Renters make up 73.4% of tenure, dwarfing outright owners (13.4%) and mortgage holders (13.2%). The 17.1% vacancy rate is extraordinary, more than 5 times the balanced-market benchmark. Price has been flat at $750,000 between 2024 and 2025, with 0% CAGR over that period.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,500
Rent / wk
$500
HH Size
2.1
Personal Income / wk
$772
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
17.1%
Unoccupied
606
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
27.7%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
32.0% stressed
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
50.5%
Couples, no children
3,242
Total families
Economy & Employment
Professional/Tech leads employment at 18.3% (563 workers), followed by Hospitality at 13.5% (417) and Education at 10.3% (317). The 11.2% unemployment rate runs roughly double the national average, consistent with the student-heavy population cycling in and out of work. Participation rate of 55.6% is well below the national norm, further evidence of a large non-working student cohort. Professionals dominate occupations at 1,354 workers. The SEIFA IEO decile 10 confirms exceptional educational capital, while IER decile 1 reflects minimal economic resources.
Unemployment
2.8%
Labour Force
6,311
Unemployed
177
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
58.6%
Part-time
30.2%
Participation
55.6%
Employed
3,419
Occupations
Top Industries
University
62.1%
Postgraduate
21.4%
Born Overseas
71.2%
Dwellings
2,913
Transport to Work
Three schools serve the suburb: International Grammar School (Independent combined, ICSEA 1,170, 1,224 students), Westbourne College Sydney (Independent secondary, ICSEA 1,153, 65 students), and Ultimo Public School (Government primary, ICSEA 1,088, 483 students). All score well above the national benchmark. Public transport is used by 26.7% of commuters, while 44.1% walk or cycle, reflecting proximity to the CBD. Rent-to-income at 27.7% approaches the stress threshold, and mortgage holders already exceed it at 32.0%.
Drive
25.6%
Public Transport
26.7%
Walk / Cycle
44.1%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+1.75%/yr
(+184 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew from 8,912 (pre-COVID) to 10,039 current, a 33.1% COVID recovery after a 15.4% dip. Medium forecast projects 11,001 by 2031, growing at 1.75% annually (184 persons/year). Overseas migration drives growth at +1,056 net per year, while internal migration runs at -346/year, meaning Ultimo absorbs international arrivals but loses residents to other Sydney suburbs. The gentrification score of 32 (early signs) reflects population growth and international inflow rather than income-driven upgrading, as real income grew only 28.9% over the decade.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Overseas Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+1,056
Net Internal / yr
-346
Gentrification Signal
Early signs
Population +37% since 2011, Net internal outflow -346/yr, Strong overseas inflow +1056/yr, COVID recovered (-15% dip → full recovery)
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Ultimo compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ultimo a good suburb to live in?
Ultimo suits young professionals and students who prioritize walkability (44.1% walk or cycle) and CBD proximity over space. The IRSAD decile of 8 reflects above-average advantage, but the IER decile of 1 for economic resources and 17.1% vacancy rate signal financial constraints for many residents.
What is the median house price in Ultimo?
The median is $750,000 (PSI derived, 2024-2025), with 0% growth over the past year. Monthly mortgage repayments of $2,500 consume 32.0% of household income, exceeding the stress threshold. The vast majority of stock (87.7%) is apartments.
What schools are in Ultimo?
Ultimo has 3 schools: International Grammar School (ICSEA 1,170, 1,224 students), Westbourne College Sydney (ICSEA 1,153, 65 students), and Ultimo Public School (ICSEA 1,088, 483 students). All score significantly above the national ICSEA benchmark of 1,000.
Is Ultimo safe?
Suburb-level crime data is not available. The IRSD decile of 3 indicates relative disadvantage, and the high population density of 13,261 per sq km combined with 11.2% unemployment typically correlates with elevated property crime in inner-city areas.
Is Ultimo good for property investment?
The 17.1% vacancy rate is a major red flag, roughly 5 times the balanced benchmark of 3%. Gross yield of 3.5% ($500/week on $750,000) is modest for the risk. With 40 DAs lodged in 12 months and flat price growth, supply pressure continues. This is a tenant-rich but oversupplied market.
How is Ultimo's population changing?
Population is forecast to reach 11,001 by 2031, growing at 1.75% per year. Overseas migration adds 1,056 net people annually while internal migration loses 346. The 53.9% turnover rate is among the highest in Sydney, reflecting transient student and early-career demographics.
What languages are spoken in Ultimo?
With 71.2% born overseas (49.6pp above the national average), Ultimo is one of Sydney's most linguistically diverse suburbs. Mandarin (588 speakers), Cantonese (205), Hindi (87), Korean (48), and Italian (43) are the most common non-English languages. Chinese ancestry accounts for 2,328 residents.
How much development is happening in Ultimo?
40 development applications were lodged in the past 12 months, including commercial conversions and residential modifications. Recent activity includes food and drink premises and dwelling alterations, consistent with ongoing densification in this 0.56 sq km inner-city precinct.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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