NSW 2528 Census 2021 + Live DA Data

Warilla

A median house price of $800,000 sits alongside a household income in the 12.5th percentile nationally, and that gap is the defining tension here. Warilla scores decile 1 on three of four SEIFA indexes (IRSAD, IRSD and IEO), the lowest advantage tier in the country, with IER at decile 2. The median age of 45 runs 5.0 years above national, university qualifications reach only 14.1%, which is 16.0 points below national, and 87.6% of residents drive to work against very thin public transport use of 1.9%. Detached houses dominate at 70.9% of dwellings across a compact 2.48 km2 footprint holding 6,226 residents.

Warilla urban fabric map

Population

6,226

Median Age

45.0

Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)

$987/wk

DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year

55

Median House

$800K

2024-2025 (PSI derived)

2.48 km²· 2,508.8 people/km²· Family income $1,338/wk

The $800,000 median rose modestly from $794,500 in 2024 to $810,000 in 2025, a 2.0% one-year move that trails most coastal NSW markets. Stock favours families: separate houses make up 70.9% of dwellings and three-bedroom homes account for 50.4%, with 4-plus bedroom homes a further 21.1%, so apartments at 6.1% are scarce. The affordability pressure shows in the numbers. Average monthly mortgage repayments of $1,733 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 40.6%, well above the 30% stress threshold, because local household income sits in the 12.5th percentile. Buyers get house-and-land value at a price below Sydney metro, but servicing that loan stretches typical incomes here far more than the headline price suggests.

For Buyers

The $800,000 median rose modestly from $794,500 in 2024 to $810,000 in 2025, a 2.0% one-year move that trails most coastal NSW markets. Stock favours families: separate houses make up 70.9% of dwellings and three-bedroom homes account for 50.4%, with 4-plus bedroom homes a further 21.1%, so apartments at 6.1% are scarce. The affordability pressure shows in the numbers. Average monthly mortgage repayments of $1,733 produce a mortgage-to-income ratio of 40.6%, well above the 30% stress threshold, because local household income sits in the 12.5th percentile. Buyers get house-and-land value at a price below Sydney metro, but servicing that loan stretches typical incomes here far more than the headline price suggests.

For Investors

A 41.9% renter share gives landlords the largest tenure group in Warilla, and weekly rent of $300 against the $800,000 median implies a gross yield near 2.0%, low but typical for detached coastal stock. The 6.0% vacancy rate points to softer demand than tight inner-city markets, and population is forecast to ease 0.14% a year, so volume growth is not the story. Rent has climbed 59.1% over the period studied, the clearest upside signal. Demand support is split: net overseas migration adds 81 residents a year while internal migration removes 82, leaving growth essentially flat. Development is steady at 48 applications in 12 months, mostly demolition and single-dwelling rebuilds rather than new density, so the case rests on rent escalation more than yield or supply.

Development Activity

Total DAs

269

Last 12 Months

55

YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements

+22.2%

Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year

N/A

Monthly DA Lodgements

DA Categories

Renovation / Extension
26
Demolition
26
Subdivision
9
Granny Flat / Secondary Dwelling
8
Swimming Pool / Spa
8
Commercial / Industrial
6
Change of Use
4
Multi-Dwelling / Townhouse
4

Schools in Warilla iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged

Warilla Public School

ICSEA 937 Primary Government

K-6 · 279 students

Mount Warrigal Public School

ICSEA 885 Primary Government

P-6 · 185 students

Warilla North Public School

ICSEA 872 Primary Government

K-6 · 167 students

Demographics

The median age of 45 is 5.0 years above national, and the trajectory is aging, with the senior share up 3.7 points and the working-age share down 0.9 points over the decade. Overseas-born residents reach only 18.0%, which is 3.6 points below national, so the population skews Australian-born and Anglo-leaning: English ancestry leads at 2,306, followed by Scottish (516) and Irish (510). The most common non-English languages are Macedonian (28 speakers), Serbian (18) and Italian (13), small numbers reflecting limited recent migration. University qualifications at 14.1% run 16.0 points below national, consistent with a workforce weighted toward trades and personal services. Average household size is 2.3, which is 0.2 below national, and 11.6% of residents (658 people) report needing daily assistance, higher than you would expect outside an older-skewed suburb.

Age Distribution

0-14
16.7%
15-24
11.8%
25-44
20.4%
45-64
26.4%
65+
24.6%

Bedrooms

Studio/1br
6.6%
2 bed
21.9%
3 bed
50.4%
4+ bed
21.1%

Dwelling Structure

70.9%

Houses

13.8%

Townhouse

6.1%

Apartment

Tenure

Own 36.0% Mortgage 22.1% Rent 41.9%

Tenure is renter-led: 41.9% rent, 36.0% own outright and only 22.1% carry a mortgage. The low mortgage share reflects an older, established owner base rather than a churn of recent buyers. Stock is overwhelmingly detached at 70.9% separate houses, with semi-detached at 13.8% and apartments just 6.1%, so the market is built around family homes. Three-bedroom dwellings dominate at 50.4% and 4-plus bedroom homes add 21.1%. The median rose from $794,500 in 2024 to $810,000 in 2025, a 2.0% gain. Both stress measures flash red: mortgage-to-income at 40.6% and rent-to-income at 30.4% sit above the 30% threshold, because dwelling costs outrun a household income base in the 12.5th percentile nationally.

Median House Price Trend

Source: State Valuer-General

Mortgage / mo

$1,733

Rent / wk

$300

HH Size

2.3

Personal Income / wk

$531

Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)

6.0%

Unoccupied

160

Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

30.4% stressed

Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress

40.6% stressed

Community Profile

Languages Spoken at Home

Macedon
28
Serbian
18
Italian
13

Ancestry

English
2,306
Ancestry NS
554
Scottish
516
Irish
510
Other
417
German
258

Household Composition

26.7%

Couples, no children

4,509

Total families

Economy & Employment

The workforce concentrates in service and trade sectors rather than knowledge industries: Healthcare leads at 24.7% (297 workers), Construction follows at 13.3% (160) and Education at 8.9% (107), with Retail at 7.9% and Public Administration at 7.7%. By occupation, Community and Personal Service workers (350) and Labourers (314) outnumber Professionals (231), which aligns with the decile 1 IEO score for education and occupation. Unemployment is elevated at 8.6%, well above typical rates, and the participation rate is just 37.1% because 2,452 residents are not in the labour force, a direct consequence of the aging, older-skewed profile. The IER score reaches decile 2 against decile 1 on the other three SEIFA indexes, a small lift reflecting the high 36.0% outright-ownership rate that holds down housing costs for established residents.

Unemployment

14.4%

Labour Force

9,279

Unemployed

1,339

Quarterly Trend

Mar-24 Dec-25

Source: SALM Dec-25

Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)

Overall advantage
1
Disadvantage
1
Economic resources
2
Education & occupation
1

Full-time

57.5%

Part-time

33.9%

Participation

37.1%

Employed

1,761

Occupations

Community/Personal 350
Labourers 314
Clerical/Admin 236
Professionals 231
Sales 192
Machinery/Drivers 182
Managers 175

Top Industries

Healthcare 24.7%
Construction 13.3%
Education 8.9%
Retail 7.9%
Public Admin 7.7%

University

14.1%

Postgraduate

3.0%

Born Overseas

18.0%

Dwellings

2,501

Transport to Work

Car dependence is high: 87.6% drive to work while public transport carries only 1.9% and active travel 3.4%, well below the national balance, a function of limited rail and bus coverage. The suburb sits at decile 1 on IRSAD, the lowest advantage tier nationally, and decile 1 on IRSD for relative disadvantage, meaning a large share of residents face economic pressure. Volunteering runs at 9.1% and 11.6% of residents (658 people) need daily assistance, consistent with the older median age of 45. No schools are recorded inside the 2.48 km2 boundary in this dataset, so families rely on institutions in neighbouring suburbs. The detached, low-density setting at 2,508 residents per km2 suits buyers wanting space over services.

Drive

87.6%

Public Transport

1.9%

Walk / Cycle

3.4%

Work from Home

N/A

Population Forecast

-0.14%/yr

(-30 people/yr)

Established

Warilla is contracting slightly: the annual population trend reads negative 0.14%, about 30 fewer residents a year, and the 10-year change is just 1.7%, classifying it as an established, slow-growth area. Medium forecasts ease the wider SA2 population from about 20,538 in 2026 to 20,388 by 2031, so no expansion is expected. Overseas migration of 81 a year is the only positive driver, almost exactly offset by net internal outflow of 82. The gentrification stage reads not gentrifying with a score of 10, fitting a suburb already at decile 1 advantage where rents have nonetheless risen 59.1% and affordability worsened from 56.4% in 2011 to 59.6% in 2021, squeezing the lower-income base further.

Historical + Forecast

Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025

Age Cohort Forecast

Primary Driver

Overseas Migration

Net Overseas / yr

+81

Net Internal / yr

-82

10

Gentrification Signal

Not gentrifying

COVID recovered (-2% dip → full recovery)

National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs

How Warilla compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs

Population
Top 9%
Household Income
Bottom 12%
Rent Level
Top 41%
Apartments
Top 40%
Renters
Top 14%
Uni Educated
Bottom 16%
Public Transport
Bottom 32%
Born Overseas
Top 36%
Density
Top 5%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Warilla a good suburb to live in?

Warilla offers detached-house living at an $800,000 median, below Sydney metro, with 70.9% separate houses. The trade-offs are real: it scores decile 1 on three SEIFA indexes, the lowest advantage tier nationally, household income sits in the 12.5th percentile, and 87.6% of residents drive because public transport use is just 1.9%.

What is the median house price in Warilla?

The median house price is $800,000, having risen 2.0% from $794,500 in 2024 to $810,000 in 2025. Weekly rent averages $300 and monthly mortgage repayments run about $1,733, producing a mortgage-to-income ratio of 40.6%, above the 30% stress threshold.

What schools are in Warilla?

No schools are recorded inside the 2.48 km2 Warilla boundary in this dataset, so families rely on schools in neighbouring suburbs. University qualifications among residents reach only 14.1%, which is 16.0 points below the national figure, reflecting a trade-weighted workforce.

Is Warilla safe?

Detailed crime statistics are not available for Warilla in this dataset. As an indirect indicator, the suburb scores decile 1 on the IRSD index of relative disadvantage, the lowest tier, and 11.6% of its residents (658 people) report needing daily assistance, both consistent with a higher-need, lower-income area.

Is Warilla good for property investment?

Rent of $300 a week against an $800,000 median gives a gross yield near 2.0%, and the 6.0% vacancy rate signals softer demand. Renters are the largest group at 41.9%, and rent has climbed 59.1%, but population is forecast to ease 0.14% a year, so returns lean on rent growth over capital or volume.

How is Warilla's population changing?

The population of 6,226 is contracting about 0.14% a year, roughly 30 residents, with a 10-year change of just 1.7%. The profile is aging: the senior share rose 3.7 points and the working-age share fell 0.9 points over the decade, while overseas migration of 81 a year is offset by internal outflow of 82.

How to read these comparisons

Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.

Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.

Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.

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