Warners Bay
Warners Bay is actively gentrifying, with a gentrification score of 41 ("Active" stage) driven by net internal migration of +163 people per year, one of the few suburbs in this cohort where more Australians move in than leave. Growth accelerated from 3% to 15% over the decade. House prices jumped 10% in 12 months to $962,500, and 45.3% of residents own outright, the highest rate in this cohort. Healthcare employs nearly a quarter of all workers (23.4%), consistent with the Lake Macquarie hospital corridor. Despite the growth, household income sits at just the 46th percentile nationally.
Population
8,237
Median Age
46.0
Household IncomeiMedian weekly household income (ABS Census)
$1,494/wk
DAs (12 months)iDevelopment Applications lodged in the past year
116
Median House
$911K
2024-2025 (PSI derived)
The median house price rose 10% from $875,000 to $962,500 between 2024 and 2025. Detached houses account for 67.8%, with semi-detached at 23.2% and apartments at 8.9%. Three-bedroom homes (43.4%) are most common, with 28.4% at 4+ bedrooms. Mortgage stress at 31.8% just breaches the 30% threshold, reflecting the gap between moderate incomes (46th percentile) and rising prices. Outright ownership at 45.3% is the highest in this dataset, suggesting many long-term residents bought at much lower prices. For new buyers, the $962,500 entry point is accessible compared to Sydney but stretched against local incomes.
For Buyers
The median house price rose 10% from $875,000 to $962,500 between 2024 and 2025. Detached houses account for 67.8%, with semi-detached at 23.2% and apartments at 8.9%. Three-bedroom homes (43.4%) are most common, with 28.4% at 4+ bedrooms. Mortgage stress at 31.8% just breaches the 30% threshold, reflecting the gap between moderate incomes (46th percentile) and rising prices. Outright ownership at 45.3% is the highest in this dataset, suggesting many long-term residents bought at much lower prices. For new buyers, the $962,500 entry point is accessible compared to Sydney but stretched against local incomes.
For Investors
Renter share at 23.9% is moderate, with weekly rent at $420 and vacancy at 5.5%. Gross yield around 2.3% ($420/week on $962,500) is below the national average but typical for Lake Macquarie. The strong demand signal is net internal migration at +163/year, meaning more domestic movers arrive than leave, a rarity. Only 113 DAs were lodged in 12 months, but this is the highest in the cohort, including new dwellings, pools, and renovations. Population grows at 0.99% annually (155 people/year). Rent grew 36.7% over the decade, and the gentrification score of 41 suggests continued upward price pressure.
Development Activity
Total DAs
585
Last 12 Months
116
YoY ChangeiYear-over-year change in DA lodgements
+19.6%
Avg DA CostiAverage estimated cost per DA in the past year
N/A
Monthly DA Lodgements
DA Categories
Schools in Warners Bay iICSEA: school advantage index. 1000 = national avg, higher = more advantaged
St Mary's Primary School
K-6 · 418 students
Biddabah Public School
K-6 · 348 students
Warners Bay High School
7-12 · 1161 students
Warners Bay Public School
K-6 · 340 students
Demographics
English ancestry dominates at 3,767 (45.7% of population), followed by Scottish (1,026) and Irish (903). German (407) is notable for a NSW suburb. Overseas-born at 12.6% is 9.0 pp below the national average, making this one of the least diverse suburbs in the cohort. Non-English languages are minimal: Arabic (17), Macedonian (14), Mandarin (13). Median age of 46 sits 6 years above national, and the senior share grew 3.4 pp. University attainment at 31.4% is 1.3 pp above national. Christianity (4,354 adherents) overwhelmingly dominates. Residential stability at 78.9% is high, consistent with established owner-occupiers.
Age Distribution
Bedrooms
Dwelling Structure
67.8%
Houses
23.2%
Townhouse
8.9%
Apartment
Tenure
Prices grew 10% from $875,000 to $962,500 in 12 months. Ownership splits show 45.3% own outright, 30.8% mortgage, and 23.9% renting. The 45.3% outright rate is the highest in this cohort, reflecting long-term residents. Detached houses at 67.8% dominate, with semi-detached at 23.2%. Three-bedroom homes (43.4%) are most common. Mortgage stress at 31.8% just exceeds the threshold. Affordability improved modestly from 54.6% to 51.1% of income between 2011 and 2021, helped by 18.8% real income growth. Average household size of 2.3 is slightly below national, consistent with the older demographic and couple-heavy composition.
Median House Price Trend
Source: State Valuer-General
Mortgage / mo
$2,058
Rent / wk
$420
HH Size
2.3
Personal Income / wk
$766
Vacancy Ratei% of dwellings unoccupied on Census night (ABS 2021)
5.5%
Unoccupied
196
Rent / IncomeiMedian rent as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
28.1%
Mortgage / IncomeiMedian mortgage as % of household income. Over 30% = housing stress
31.8% stressed
Community Profile
Languages Spoken at Home
Ancestry
Household Composition
32.0%
Couples, no children
6,536
Total families
Economy & Employment
Healthcare leads at 23.4% (627 workers), followed by Education (13.6%), Construction (9.6%), Public Admin (8.2%), and Professional/Tech (7.5%). These 5 sectors account for 62.3% of all employment, a narrow base anchored in public-sector and health services. Professionals (958) lead occupations, followed by Clerical/Admin (565) and Community/Personal (486). Unemployment at 3.9% is below the national average, and full-time employment at 60.8% is solid. SEIFA IRSAD decile 6 indicates moderate advantage, while IEO decile 6 and IER decile 7 are balanced. Participation rate at 53.9% is modest, reflecting the retiree population.
Unemployment
2.8%
Labour Force
8,280
Unemployed
233
Quarterly Trend
Source: SALM Dec-25
Socio-Economic Indexes (SEIFA)iABS index ranking suburbs from 1 (most disadvantaged) to 10 (most advantaged)
Full-time
60.8%
Part-time
35.3%
Participation
53.9%
Employed
3,585
Occupations
Top Industries
University
31.4%
Postgraduate
7.0%
Born Overseas
12.6%
Dwellings
3,382
Transport to Work
Public transport captures just 0.8% of commuters, and 90.5% drive, reflecting Lake Macquarie's car-dependent layout. Walking/cycling at 2.7% is low. Warners Bay has 4 schools: St Mary's Primary (Catholic, ICSEA 1093, 418 students), Biddabah Public (ICSEA 1065, 348 students), Warners Bay High (ICSEA 1056, 1,161 students), and Warners Bay Public (ICSEA 1027, 340 students). All 4 score above the national 1000 benchmark, with the Catholic school leading at 1093. Need-for-assistance at 6.5% is moderate. SEIFA IRSAD decile 6 indicates moderate overall advantage.
Drive
90.5%
Public Transport
0.8%
Walk / Cycle
2.7%
Work from Home
N/A
Population Forecast
+0.99%/yr
(+155 people/yr)
EstablishedPopulation grew 15.1% over the past decade at 0.99% annually, adding 155 people per year, close to the national average. Medium forecasts project 16,290 by 2031, up from 15,675 in 2025. The growth engine is internal migration (+163/year), not overseas (+53/year), which is distinctive compared to most Australian suburbs that rely on overseas arrivals. Growth accelerated from 3% to 15% over the decade, consistent with the "Active" gentrification score of 41. Real income grew 18.8% over the decade, and rents grew 36.7%, tightening affordability for newcomers. The senior share rose 3.4 pp while the working-age share dropped 1.3 pp.
Historical + Forecast
Hamilton-Perry + Holt smoothing on ERP 2001-2025
Age Cohort Forecast
Primary Driver
Internal Migration
Net Overseas / yr
+53
Net Internal / yr
+163
Gentrification Signal
Active
Population +18% since 2011, Net internal migration +163/yr, Accelerating: 3% → 15%
National Ranking iPercentile rank among ~15,000 AU suburbs. 90% = higher than 90% of suburbs
How Warners Bay compares to ~15,000 Australian suburbs
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Warners Bay a good suburb to live in?
Warners Bay scores SEIFA IRSAD decile 6 with all 4 schools above ICSEA 1027. Unemployment at 3.9% is below the national average. Positive internal migration (+163/year) signals growing popularity. The main trade-offs are minimal public transport (0.8%) and mortgage stress at 31.8%, just above the safe threshold.
What is the median house price in Warners Bay?
The median house price is $962,500 as of 2025, up 10% from $875,000 the previous year. Detached houses account for 67.8% of stock. Mortgage repayments average $2,058/month, consuming 31.8% of household income, slightly above the 30% stress threshold.
What schools are in Warners Bay?
Warners Bay has 4 schools: St Mary's Primary (Catholic, ICSEA 1093, 418 students), Biddabah Public (ICSEA 1065, 348 students), Warners Bay High (ICSEA 1056, 1,161 students), and Warners Bay Public (ICSEA 1027, 340 students). All 4 exceed the national ICSEA benchmark of 1000.
Is Warners Bay safe?
Crime data is not reported at the suburb level for Warners Bay. SEIFA IRSD decile 6 indicates moderate disadvantage levels, and the 3.9% unemployment rate is below the national average. The high outright ownership (45.3%) and residential stability (78.9%) correlate with lower crime in comparable Lake Macquarie suburbs.
Is Warners Bay good for property investment?
Gross yield is roughly 2.3% ($420/week on $962,500), below the national average. However, the gentrification score of 41 ("Active") and net internal migration of +163/year are strong capital-growth signals. Price growth at 10% in 12 months outpaced most Lake Macquarie suburbs. Vacancy at 5.5% is moderate.
How is Warners Bay's population changing?
Population grew 15.1% over the past decade to 15,675 in 2025, adding 155 people per year. The primary driver is internal migration (+163/year), not overseas (+53/year). Growth accelerated from 3% to 15% over the decade. The gentrification score of 41 marks Warners Bay as actively transitioning.
How much development is happening in Warners Bay?
Warners Bay logged 113 DAs in the past 12 months, the highest in this cohort. Applications include new dwellings, swimming pools, sheds, and residential alterations. This high activity aligns with the gentrification score of 41 and 10% price growth, as both new builds and renovations reshape the suburb.
How to read these comparisons
Phrases like "above the national average" reference the unweighted median across Australian suburbs with more than 1,000 residents, not population-weighted national figures. Suburb-level medians are more useful for ranking suburbs against each other; ABS census headlines are population-weighted (so dominated by Sydney and Melbourne) and can read very differently.
Current baseline (refreshed 2026-05-10): median age 40, university-educated 30.1%, born overseas 21.6%, average household size 2.5 people.
Data sources: ABS 2021 Census (demographics, income, tenure), state Valuer-General (house prices), Department of Jobs SALM (unemployment), ACARA (school ICSEA), state Crime Statistics agencies (offences), council DA portals (development applications). Population forecasts use a Hamilton-Perry cohort model calibrated to ABS ERP.
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